I went ahead and built the army in CON. I don't think there was much of a case for building a fleet. So here we are, entering Spr '20:
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large
The objectives:
1) Destroy the N. Africa fleet / close in on MAO
2) Advance the armies in France
3) Keep Germany from getting to Venice or Piedmont.
4) Discourage Russia from doing anything crazy.
I’m not sure I have the forces to accomplish all of these objectives this turn. My overall position is pretty strong now. I expect I'll get the solo as long as I don't screw something up. I'm inclined to prioritize #3, do what it takes to stop Germany sneaking into Venice or Piedmont. That means Adriatic Sea has to go back to Venice while the Greece army convoys only so far as Apulia. The double convoy would have been better, but now it risks a bounce in Venice which would mean I’d have to use the Ionian fleet for convoying again in the Autumn. Piedmont also has to be covered somehow. I'm thinking of bouncing Marseilles and GoL there.
With GoL and Marseilles occupied, That means I either delay the attack on N. Africa, or I go ahead with the attack and take some risks in the Med. With all the Turkish forces around Spain, it seems pretty likely England will order MAO support-hold SPA. The N. Africa fleet is sort of alone, I’m what to expect there. I could imagine SPA support NAf-->WES, in which case an attack on N. Africa captures N. Africa but doesn't destroy the N. Africa fleet ... unless ... GAS-->SPA solves that problem. So, a tentative set of orders could be:
CON-->BUL
ION convoy GRE-->APU
TUN-->NAf supported by WES
GAS-->SPA
GoL-->PIE
MAR-->PIE
PAR-->BRE
The Paris-to-Brest move is to defend against a concerted attack on Gascony from Brest and Burgundy. I need to ensure that army isn’t destroyed; it took a lot of effort to get it to Gascony! If the bots play BUR-->GAS supported by BRE, Brest’s support is cut and the attack fails. I don't realistically see bot-England ordering BRE-->GAS, not with my army sitting next door in Paris. I also don’t realistically see bot-Germany supporting that from Burgundy. Even if they did those moves, Paris would occupy Brest and Gascony would retreat into Paris. Not bad at all.
What if England does something surprising, something other than MAO support-hold SPA? For example, NAf-->WES supported by MAO. That’s about the worst I can imagine, and it’s highly unlikely the bot will do it. But, just to play it out, NAf captures WES, WES is dislodged and retreats to TYS, Tunis captures NAf. In the Autumn Ionian covers Tunis and it’s 3-on-3 in WES. I think I get the upper hand there anyway in Autumn or the following Spring. Alternatively, if England orders SPA-->WES supported by MAO, SPA captures WES, WES retreats to TYS, TUN does not capture NAf. I think eventually I prevail in that scenario, too. GAS captures Spain -- without an English fleet ending up in Portugal – and I probably end up in Spain, Portugal, and MAO. If England plays MAO-->WES, I think all attacks fail, which is the same as if I support-hold. On balance, these risks seem manageable and worthwhile to achieve goals 1 and 3.
As an alternative (or in addition?) to the above moves in the Med, I could order GAS-->BUR supported by PAR. That takes advantage of Germany’s MUN-->TYR move. Burgundy is dislodged, and Germany has a significant challenge defending Belgium, Ruhr, and Munich. England’s North Sea fleet can help, but it can’t help with Belgium and also move to English Channel.
Or, I could forget about defending Piedmont (wasting 2 well-placed units):
GoL-->SPA
MAR-->BUR supported by PAR
GAS-->BRE
CON-->BUL
ION convoy GRE-->APU
TUN-->NAf supported by WES
I kind of like this last set, actually. It’s risky if Germany orders TYR-->PIE, but I think I could deal with that if it happens.