Trigfea63 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 3:32 am
I have tentatively entered EAS-->ION supported by AEG, BUL support-hold GRE, and ANK-->CON for Spr '05. But I'm now thinking your suggested move of EAS-->ION to cut support, and attack Greece myself with 2 units is better. It's an Autumn move, so getting another SC would be useful. Looking at Italy's likely moves, what is he doing in TYS? Going after France? With 1 fleet? Not likely. My hunch is, TYS will support-hold ION, and ION will again support ALB-->GRE. If I'm right, the attack on ION would fail, but the attack on Greece would succeed. I also think I want the Aegean fleet to take Greece, supported by Bulgaria. I can then build a third fleet, and in the Spring defend Greece from Bulgaria and move the new fleet to Aegean. That would give me three fleets on Ionian, putting a lot of pressure on Italy. We'll see if that all pans out, but that's how I'm gonna play it for Spr '05 at least:
ANK-->CON
AEG-->GRE supported by BUL
EAS-->ION
Here goes (and commentary on the results later):
https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large
Just as bot-brains sometimes get confused, so too do human brains. In my analysis of the last moves, I mention twice that these are the **Spr '05** moves. And yet, the analysis is based in part on this being **an Autumn move.** Oh well. I don't know if I would have done anything different. At this point it doesn't matter.
The Spr '05 moves worked out pretty well, despite the hiccup. Italy moved exactly as I predicted, and my attack on Greece succeeded. I'm slightly exposed with Aegean open and no build before the next Diplomacy round. More on that later.
The Spr '05 moves also saw some noteworthy developments outside of my immediate sphere. Closest to home, bot-Italy's army Trieste switched from support-holding Austria in Vienna, to support-holding Russia in Budapest. Tactically, the change may be inconsequential: Italy's support wasn't helping Austria much, and it won't help Russia much either. However, Austria's Vienna army could perhaps use Italy's support this Autumn. More on that later. Also, as Turkey, with Austria down to 2 units, and with my "alliance" with Russia reduced to basically leaving each other alone, I'm very wary of an I/R forming. Do I need to compete for bot-Russia's affections?
Speaking of Russia, the R-G war continued full force, with some interesting twists. Russia captured Denmark and can't be kicked out in Autumn. At the same time, Germany sent two armies east and has an assured capture of Warsaw. So even-steven. Except maybe for Sweden, currently owned by Russia occupied by a Russian army. Last turn, England and Germany each ordered to Sweden, without support. If they can get their act together and one supports the other, *AND* if Germany taps Denmark from Kiel, Russia will lose Sweden, down one. Probably it's less than 50% likely that bot-Germany and bot-England will make all those moves.
If the Russian bot-brain is smart enough, it might figure out to concede Warsaw and order GAL-->VIE supported by BUD. Austria has been relentlessly attacking Budapest from Vienna, supported by Serbia, so this combination would probably work for Russia. Assuming bot-Italy doesn't switch his alliance yet again. So, in all likelihood, Germany will remain at 6 units, and Russia will remain at 6 or maybe gain 1 if he can capture Vienna. It's best for me if those two remain roughly even. Having to deal with Germany keeps several Russian units occupied, and makes it pretty unlikely Russia will seriously consider attacking me. (Do bots "seriously consider" strategies?) On the other hand, I certainly don't want Germany overrunning Russia. Then I'd have to deal with a powerful Germany to the north. If it begins to look like Germany is gaining the upper hand, then maybe I do want to support Russia's Rumania army into Serbia. But not now. (Or maybe I want to get myself in position to scoop up Russian-controlled centers when he's forced to remove units.)
In the West, England captured Brest, destroying the French fleet there in the process. He can hold it in Autumn and probably will. England also has a clear shot at Portugal, and undoubtedly will capture it from MAO. But, the French fleet in NAO will capture Liverpool. So overall, it seems England will be +1, and France -1. I don't think that has a big impact on my strategy. Maybe it's less likely anyone will threaten Italy from the West in the next 2 game-years.
Thoughts for Autumn '05: BUL support-hold GRE, obviously. Probably EAS-->AEG just in case Italy gets any ideas. And perhaps CON-->SMY, in case Italy orders ION-->EAS (unlikely), but also to be in position for an attack on Russia. The fleet build would then be in CON. Would bot-Russia view the move to Smyrna together with the build in CON as hostile? A strong human player would be suspicious.
An alternative could be EAS-->ION supported by GRE. The thing is, I doubt it will work. It seems likely Italy will make the same moves: TYS support-hold ION, and ION support ALB-->GRE. If it did work, I think I like the outcome. Yes, Italy could forward-retreat into Aegean. That's not great, but I think I'd trade Aegean for Ionian at this point. I could easily recapture Aegean in Spring '06, and I could retreat to a lot of nasty places if Italy kicked me out of Ionian. Still, it's a bit pointless to hammer the Ionian if I have a very low chance of success. It will just train Italy to always defend the Ionian.
Here's another idea, more of a longshot: BUL-->SER, hoping for Russian support. Russia was trying to get me to do that for several turns a couple of game years ago. I could try EAS-->ION, hoping to cut support, and BUL-->SER, CON-->BUL, hoping for Russian support. That's a lot of hoping. Probably not worth the risk of losing Greece. Probably I need to at least secure Greece first, with a fleet in the Aegean.