I have a private (family/friends) gunboat league and we've played 53 matches together since February 2017. I keep track of all the results on my own, and all sorts of statistics about the results (what self-respecting nerd would pass up the chance?)
Among the players who have played more than 10 matches, here are the tabulations for each player's respective "MVC" (most-valuable country):
England: 1
France: 6
Germany: 1
Russia: 1
Italy: 0
Austria: 1
Turkey: 0
(6/10 players performed best, on average, as France)
Among the 6 players who have France as their MVC are the two best-performing competitors (myself and my older, board-game obsessed cousin) and the two worst-performing competitors (a sibling and a cousin who have played board games with me all their lives and are good at other games). So in this league, whether the player is good or bad at Diplomacy does not predict whether France is their MVC. France is the MVC for more than half the consistent players, regardless of their overall performance as players. (Just FYI we play draw-sized scoring, so France's tactical ability to get into draws is definitely relevant to these results).
I've also kept track of the Elo rating for each country (as though the country itself were the player), with starting values of 1000:
1. France, 1082
2. England 1051
3. Italy 1048
4. Germany 1027
5. Austria 991
6. Turkey 940
7. Russia 861
(Since this is an Elo system, the more-recent games factor in more heavily. France has a lead, but it is not insurmountable. Isn't it interseting that England and Italy are not far behind?)
And here are the all-time results, not weighted, just pure points. The values are arbitrary, but the starting amount per country is zero and they are traded according to the draw-sized scoring results (so they are zero sum).
1. France 237.67
2. England 71.50
3. Italy 54.33
4. Germany -12.33
5. Russia -25.50
6. Turkey -100.83
7. Austria -172.00
(Note that the last 4 are negative values, so only France, England, and Italy have an overall positive record. By this metric, the gap between France and the other powers is staggering -- comparing that fact with the Elo data makes me think that France was extremely strong at the start of the league and has declined over time while remaining #1.)
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Fun fact: except for sweetwatersam (who has become a personal acquaintance after we played on this site together for many years), I trained these 10 players to play gunboat Diplomacy (the rest are either myself, my apprentice, or family that never played Diplomacy until I trained them).
I'll accept the idea that I'm the cause of the anti-France gunboat meta on webDiplomacy. How could I not? I directly advocated that many times in this forum and on my blog (and I put some effort into promoting my blog,
brotherbored.com/Diplomacy)
Chew on this, though:
Given that this league is a product of my own mind, and that 90% of the mentioned players have been trained to play by me, wouldn't you expect France to have terrible results?
How is it that the results of a gunboat Diplomacy league composed almost entirely of players trained by the progenitor of the anti-French metagame show France as the indisputable #1 strongest power in that league?
You'll have to take my word for it on this, but I am just as un-subtle about my anti-French views to all the new players I train for Diplomacy privately as I am publicly on my blog. If you spoke to any of the players who I taught to play for this league, they would -- to a person -- parrot my views about France's inherent strength and the need for anti-French opening play by England, Germany and Italy (and please take note that by two of these three metrics provided by me, England, Germany and Italy are the best-performing powers in my league aside from France).
Could it be that France is just that @#$%ing strong?
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I play high-level gunboat games, and my experiences in those games are how I developed this view about France's power and have only hardened that view with time. Even when several of France's neighbors attack France at the same time, there are all sorts of defensive tactics France can use to bide time. France can recover from these defensive situations to explosive offensive power. And if France is not contained early on, France has the strongest ability to solo win of any power in gunboat. I won't repeat ideas from
my tier list post.
I have never experienced anything, and I don't think I ever will, to change my view on France's raw power in gunboat Diplomacy.
Despite creating an anti-France metagame, I still think France is the best power for me to draw. I think my chances of getting into a draw are high, and my chances of solo winning are the highest.
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Something really stands out to me about the data from my gunboat league: England is basically in second place. I bet if we play 50 more matches across the next 2 years, our anti-French metagame will allow England to creep over France in some of these metrics. I believe that (in my league) the C-Tier power England has arrived at second place due to the league's anti-French metagame. I stand by my assessment that England is a C-Tier power; I think England is inherently weak in gunboat.
I think that an anti-French metagame balances the power of England and France, and does not, by itself, elevate England above France's power.
Speaking strategically, I think England's chances of making it into a draw or solo winning are highest if England contains (and especially if England destroys) France. It doesn't matter to me that Germany is also beneficiary of this policy. As England, I would rather have a mid-game showdown vs. Germany than a showdown vs. France. Not "usually" (I sometimes hedge my words this way) -- I mean that's what I prefer.
France is a naval power and England's natural rival.
France's is physically closer to England (count the spaces between Brest and London vs. London and Kiel).
France does not necessarily have to get into a conflict with Italy, and Italy almost always has to face danger from Austria and/or Turkey.
Germany is a land power and therefore doesn't necessarily antagonize England.
Germany is not as close to England as France is.
Germany often gets antagonized by southern powers, particularly Russia and Austria.
I am simply un-moved by the idea that Germany can become a threat to me as England if France is down and Germany takes advantage. Sure. Of course. But that danger is far, far, FAR less concerning to me that the idea of fighting France in midgame at a similar level of power.
In my opinion, the ideal English solo win plan in Gunboat is to destroy France in alliance with Germany, break into the med, and betray Germany around that time. Alliance with France is a great idea in Press diplomacy, but in gunboat you're just going to get attacked by France as soon as France can possibly get away with it.
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So it seems that many players on this site are taking my advice as England, Germany, and Italy to do various anti-French openings and alliances.
But maybe what separates all y'all from the people I have personally trained is not my anti-French metagame views, but rather that...
...I tutored my friends, family, and apprentice on how to kick ass when they draw France, and I haven't published any guide or journal for how to play as France in gunboat Diplomacy.
(BTW, the player with the MVC of Germany is sweetwatersam, the one player I never tutored)