* Assertively swallows the final bite of organic pomegranate seeds.
* Withdraws iPhone XS Max, opens selfie camera app, and fastidiously examines teeth.
* Nods approvingly.
* Waltzes to his place behind the lectern.
Class, I'm going to tell you a secret. I've never been a "School of War" professor before. I didn't really even know what it was until JMO begged me to share some wisdom just a few days ago. So, I don't have any plan or expectation of how to lecture here. I have no idea what I'm going to say next.
That said, I think we're all discovering together that I have a lot of insightful, hilarious, and earth shattering things to say. The kind of stuff that makes you audibly giggle, days later, when it smacks your consciousness again like a forgotten boomerang. "Fuck you Drezner family! Indeed. Bahaha!" The kind of stuff that makes you lay awake at night clutching your collar bone with two hands, concentrating scrupulously on a knot of wood on the ceiling. "My God, he's right. France
is the key that unlocks Italy."
Because we are on this journey of discovery together, there is no template. The format develops and evolves like the three-toed skink. Let's see together what happens next.
This turn, I'm simply going to look at the board from the perspective of each power. I'll try to avoid saying the obvious stuff. I'm not JMO. But I'll just pass on a bullet point or two about things that would be in my head if I had that position.
The usual caveats apply. Press is everything, and so I don't know anything. Also, you could skip ahead to the section with your power at the top, but it's quite a bit better to consider them all. You know what you're thinking. You need to consider what everyone else is thinking.
Austria: 2/3. Russia's move could not be friendlier. A successful Galicia DMZ, and a
fleet in Rumania that can never harm me. Turkey may not have moved to Armenia, but the Black Sea move shows me a Juggernaut is unlikely. But damned Italy.
Provided Turkey doesn't interfere, I can defend Vienna and Trieste, while keeping Serbia. A single build is not the end of the world. Or I can assume that Italy thinks I'll protect my home centers, and support myself to Greece hoping that Italy goes with the Bohemian Crusher (look it up, or ask your mentor).
Putting the moves aside, displaying vulnerability early before others have committed can work in my favor. I need to sell to Turkey and France on the fact that they don't want Italy consolidating the Balkans and the Mediterranean. If I can get Turkey to build a fleet in Smyrna and France to build a fleet in Marseilles, there is still plenty of hope.
England: 3/3. Russia sent Moscow south. Germany moved to Denmark and may very well bounce Sweden. And France failed to anticipate my cunning and let me do some Channel surfing right from the start. Good show!
I can smooth things over with France. At least I didn't move my army to Wales. Clearly, I'm just conservative and wanted to avoid an early exit. Why not support me to Belgium? That's an easy way for him to get me out of the Channel and into his heart. (he'll still probably have to cover Brest...hehe). And to Germany, I'm like a fish ground Fleischkäse. "See! I told you I've always preferred E/G to E/F! It's so much better to have an ally that can help me with both France
and Russia!" And I'm Russia's babushka too. "See look! I never wanted to focus on Scandinavia."
My biggest concern is that gaping hope in Burgundy where there should be an army or a bounce. Damn. No matter how this turn ends up, if France places a fleet in Brest, and Germany places a fleet in Kiel, my success will be short-lived. When I use the leverage I obtained last turn to make deals this turn, I better not forget to insist on certain builds. Putting the right units on the board is everything here.
France 2/3. Italy appears quite occupied east. Germany actually honored a DMZ in Burgundy. Wow, it took a lot of trust to leave that one open. The one bad piece of news is that ugly pink destroyer off the coast of Brest.
Time to cozy up to England and insist that I always wanted to see Belgium turn pink anyway. If I can take two builds, cover Brest, and clear the Channel, I'm still winning, especially if I can build on my relationship with Germany. I cannot possibly spend
too much time telling Germany how much I appreciate him respecting the Burgundy DMZ. I made DMZs with both of my western triangle neighbors, and Germany proved to be the trusting one. I want him to feel like I believe that I owe him something for his loyalty.
Germany: 2/3. France left Burgundy open. Merci. England stabbed France. Merci beaucoup! But the ladybug in my lager is Italy's move to Tyrolia. Sohn einer Hündin!
Sweden depends on (a) my read on the south, and (b) my read on Russia's build. While Russia lost Black Sea (already!), Austria is occupied, so it's not like Austria and Turkey are in position to poke the bear. If I think Russia is going to lose Rumania, I probably want to give him the build in Sweden as he'll have to use it for his own defense in the south anyway. I'd rather give Turkey a taller wall to smash into. And even if Russia may keep Rumania, if Russia convinces me that he'll build a fleet on the north coast of St. Petersburg, then I almost certainly want to invite him to Sweden. Perhaps he'll support himself from Sweden to Norway next year, while I slide into Sweden. That would work out very well.
My other moves depend somewhat on Italy. I mean, I'm definitely going to tell Italy that I'm covering Munich. Not sure yet if I'm actually going to do it.
Beyond that, I just want to make sure both England and France thinks that I'm their main ally when the builds roll around. I'm likely in a place to choose, but it gets more complicated if the fleet in the Channel moves to Belgium. Hmmm, it sure would be nice to leave Munich open so that I can bounce Channel - Belgium, just to keep that tension between England and France. Italy definitely made this move trickier.
Italy 4/5. France left me alone. Germany vacated Munich. Austria failed to defend himself, and Turkey made an aggressive move towards Russia! Che bello! The only larva in my lasagna is the DMZ in Galicia. A friendly purple bear on the horizon would have certainly given me more options.
Perfect spot for a
Bohemian Crusher, of course. There is no risk in that, but less upside too. I could also make a play for Vienna or Trieste, it's just such a guessing game, and it would really hurt to guess wrong.
I suppose, no matter where I move, my biggest task here is to court Turkey as an ally, if I haven't already. The Galicia DMZ and the fleet in Rumania means that Russia is never going to help me stuff my strudel. If this attack is going anywhere, it's because Turkey is on my side.
Bul - Ser
Ion - Gre
Tyr S Ven - Tri?
Worth proposing.
Russia: 1/4. None of the moves were awful, but only Austria's was friendly. And the combination puts me in a precarious position. England moved the army over to York, which means that, while he likely violated a DMZ with France, he is still in position to convoy an army to Norway. Germany opened in a fairly standard way, but he still has a boot on my neck with that fleet ready to bounce me in Sweden. And Turkey kept Armenia free, but that fleet in Black Sea will be a dagger at my rib for a long time.
Okay, time to put the work in. Let's look on the bright side. I demonstrated honesty and integrity with two of my neighbors, honoring DMZs in Galicia and Black Sea. While England and Turkey are lying their way forward, I'm keeping promises and looking for a southern soul mate. I'm such a gosh darn cuddly bear! Love me, damn it!
I want Germany to let me into Sweden and Turkey to build a fleet in Smyrna after this year. Each one should be readily attainable if I am a halfway decent diplomat playing with reasonable players. Perhaps I can leverage my good feelings with Austria into an R/G/A. That is the kind of trio that can take control in a game like this. I just need to get Turkey going any direction but north. I can do this.
Turkey: 2/3. Delight! Russia left me the Black Sea. Italy moved on Austria. And while I don't like the Galicia DMZ, Austria basically has to focus on Italy, which gives me quite a lot of power. A fine looking start.
I may have poked the bear (not sure what the understanding was there), but I can talk him off that ledge -- it's not like I went to Armenia.
The trick now -- the way to make a good start great, is to find some way to get a second build this turn. Greece, or Rumania. Neither is going to be easy. Rumania seems extremely unlikely. Austria is going to need to use Serbia to defend himself or force Greece. I doubt he wants to use it to anger Russia and put two Turkish armies on his border. Greece is more likely, but it's sensitive. Maybe Italy would help me to Greece, but he would have to forego his own build to do it. Possible, but a tough sell. And Austria doesn't want Turkish armies in Greece/Bulgaria any more than he wants them in Rumania/Bulgaria.
If I can pull off a second build this phase, I'll deserve some praise from the peanut gallery, but more likely I'm lying in wait, allowing my neighbors to get a bit more entangled before I swoop in to undo some knots.