Austria vs Bots

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DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#141 Post by DougJoe » Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:34 am

Trigfea63 wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 10:35 pm
georgefc3 wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:18 pm
And... You have lots of experience.... Are they likely to stab each other????
I agree. Doug, you've played these bots many times. If I have something to add, well, you've probably noticed, I'm not shy about chiming in. But mostly it will be fun to see how you handle the rest of the game.
DougJoe wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 7:21 pm
I also got into TYS, which I wasn't expecting. Helps keep Turkey at bay longer.
Things could get messy if/when Turkey moves to Tyrolia, but otherwise he's pretty well bottled up.
georgefc3 wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:18 pm
Doug...

It looks like you have a good position. You and Germany have 18 centers to 16 for Russia and Turkey. It looks like you can hold him in TYS/TUN also.

You guys are on the right side of stalemate lines, having St. Pete, Munich, Berlin, Portugal and Tunis.

The question is... If Turkey and Russia stay solid, can you break through and gain more centers?

And... You have lots of experience.... Are they likely to stab each other????

Here is a link to the map:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large
I don't think that R/T will stab each other anytime soon.

I suspect that I will have to acquire all the German centers to solo. Whether or not I will remains to be seen. The attack needs to be just right and it will hinge on Germany reacting to the stab in the way that I want. There are lots of centers available for me to take, and Germany has at least one to give without giving up too much in the east. So, to that note, I think it makes sense to take Paris first (probably this year) and then have my existing armies work their way eastwards from there, using ENC and NTH to convoy new army builds as necessary. The blitz of Germany must be just right, as I might need my armies to prop up his.

Naf->WMS this turn gives a defense of 4 to TYS, which Turkey cannot break until he gets fleets in all of Pie/Tus/Rom/Nap/ION. That leaves MAO time to manuever to the south in the fall, probably to Spain. Even *if* Turkey eventually gets those units, I can move TYS to WMS and WMS to Naf and Turkey gets into TYS, but Spa & WMS S GoL, Naf S Tun, unit in Mar covers everything.

So this turn: Lon->Bre C ENC S MAO (just in case!), Bre-Gas, maybe Pie-Mar, maybe Pie holds. Naf -> WMS, Tun & GoL S TYS. Bar S StP. We'll see how agressive the Turks are in the south - if I have to retreat to Mar it's OK.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#142 Post by DougJoe » Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:49 am

DougJoe wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:34 am
I don't think that R/T will stab each other anytime soon.

I suspect that I will have to acquire all the German centers to solo. Whether or not I will remains to be seen. The attack needs to be just right and it will hinge on Germany reacting to the stab in the way that I want. There are lots of centers available for me to take, and Germany has at least one to give without giving up too much in the east. So, to that note, I think it makes sense to take Paris first (probably this year) and then have my existing armies work their way eastwards from there, using ENC and NTH to convoy new army builds as necessary. The blitz of Germany must be just right, as I might need my armies to prop up his.

Naf->WMS this turn gives a defense of 4 to TYS, which Turkey cannot break until he gets fleets in all of Pie/Tus/Rom/Nap/ION. That leaves MAO time to manuever to the south in the fall, probably to Spain. Even *if* Turkey eventually gets those units, I can move TYS to WMS and WMS to Naf and Turkey gets into TYS, but Spa & WMS S GoL, Naf S Tun, unit in Mar covers everything.

So this turn: Lon->Bre C ENC S MAO (just in case!), Bre-Gas, maybe Pie-Mar, maybe Pie holds. Naf -> WMS, Tun & GoL S TYS. Bar S StP. We'll see how agressive the Turks are in the south - if I have to retreat to Mar it's OK.
So Turkey did move to Tyo, which makes me nervous because Germany has to be smart enough to defend Munich and I'm not sure he will do that. Turkey gaining Munich would setup a whole host of problems... Germany self bounced in Bur - not sure if that was intentional or a bot bug. Nothing much else of interest around the board except Turkey tried for TYS (what I want him to do) instead of shuffling units around the Italian coast.

So, for the fall, aside from defense, we go Bre-Par S Gas, ENC->Pic (support cutting), MAO->Bre (bouncing if Pic->Bre, but I'll be surprised if that happens). I could take Hol or Bel with NTH, but I'm not sure I really want to be that and make Germany lose units that quickly. Pie can stay where it is, again if it gets kicked it retreats to Mar with no problems.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#143 Post by DougJoe » Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:02 am

DougJoe wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:49 am

So Turkey did move to Tyo, which makes me nervous because Germany has to be smart enough to defend Munich and I'm not sure he will do that. Turkey gaining Munich would setup a whole host of problems... Germany self bounced in Bur - not sure if that was intentional or a bot bug. Nothing much else of interest around the board except Turkey tried for TYS (what I want him to do) instead of shuffling units around the Italian coast.

So, for the fall, aside from defense, we go Bre-Par S Gas, ENC->Pic (support cutting), MAO->Bre (bouncing if Pic->Bre, but I'll be surprised if that happens). I could take Hol or Bel with NTH, but I'm not sure I really want to be that and make Germany lose units that quickly. Pie can stay where it is, again if it gets kicked it retreats to Mar with no problems.
I realized I could use GoL to support Pie instead of TYS, which was good because it snuffed all of Turkey's moves... and Turkey tried to support the unit from Bohemia into Vienna, against Russia, which is very surprising... I don't know why Turkey would do that, he made no other obviously hostile moves toward Russia.

The only downside was that my fleets are now in Pic and Bre and somewhat out of position (I would have preferred to stay in MAO, but oh well). I build fleet Lon and see what unit Germany disbands. Hoping for A Bur so that I can Par->Bur myself, but we'll see.

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#144 Post by Trigfea63 » Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:03 am

DougJoe wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:34 am
Even *if* Turkey eventually gets those units, I can move TYS to WMS and WMS to Naf and Turkey gets into TYS, but Spa & WMS S GoL, Naf S Tun, unit in Mar covers everything.
You can also hold the line in the Med with 5 fleets, if one is in Marseilles: MAR and WES support-hold GoL, NAF support-hold TUN. The Piedmont unit could then be deployed to the Munich area.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#145 Post by DougJoe » Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:10 am

DougJoe wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:02 am

I realized I could use GoL to support Pie instead of TYS, which was good because it snuffed all of Turkey's moves... and Turkey tried to support the unit from Bohemia into Vienna, against Russia, which is very surprising... I don't know why Turkey would do that, he made no other obviously hostile moves toward Russia.

The only downside was that my fleets are now in Pic and Bre and somewhat out of position (I would have preferred to stay in MAO, but oh well). I build fleet Lon and see what unit Germany disbands. Hoping for A Bur so that I can Par->Bur myself, but we'll see.
Eh, Livonia, unfortunately. *sigh*. But that's OK. This is where Pie has to fall back to cover Mar, although I honestly don't think G will attack it. I also need to cover it for the retreat of Bur, since I will play Par->Bur S Gas (why move Paris? So that Gascony can cover Mar in the fall if Bur->Mar and Pie gets dislodged). I will also play Bre->MAO (to Spain in the fall) and Lon->Bel C NTH S Pic. Again, defense in StP and the Med.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#146 Post by DougJoe » Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:21 am

DougJoe wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:10 am
Eh, Livonia, unfortunately. *sigh*. But that's OK. This is where Pie has to fall back to cover Mar, although I honestly don't think G will attack it. I also need to cover it for the retreat of Bur, since I will play Par->Bur S Gas (why move Paris? So that Gascony can cover Mar in the fall if Bur->Mar and Pie gets dislodged). I will also play Bre->MAO (to Spain in the fall) and Lon->Bel C NTH S Pic. Again, defense in StP and the Med.
Ended up using GoL to force into Mar, but it didn't matter, Germany didn't move to Mar anyway. As expected Turkey continues to pile fleets along the coast, but the army in Pie stops him from being able to force TYS. Got in to Bel and Bur.

MAO->Spa (sc), Bar S StP, GoL/WMS/Tun S TYS, Pic->ENC. Other than that, it's a question of "do I go for Holland now?" Lots of options here... Germany is down a unit so taking Belgium doesn't cause a disband, but also taking Holland would, and I'm not sure I want that. It might make sense to convoy Bel-Den now, move Bur to Bel and Gas to Bur...

georgefc3
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#147 Post by georgefc3 » Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:26 pm

Some final remarks about my Austria game.

First, I think you can see it was a pretty easy win. At all times I counted on Italy to have my back. Italy in turn was extremely helpful and docile. I was able very quickly to take all of Turkey except Smyrna, which went to Italy. My program of rapid shipbuilding (or what passes as rapid for Austria) paid off. I was able to get a fleet into the Atlantic, which is not common for Austria.

Note that the Russian and Turkish bots worked with each other. Austrian human players should consider these two to be a team that needs to be faced by an Austrian/Italian team.

With Austria and Italy working together I was able to gain Galicia, then Rumania and Bulgaria. After that it is off to the races to 17.

Note that Italy was easily able to gain the Atlantic. My suggestion is that Austria should be able to win a large majority of the games where Italy doesn't attack it. I haven't played enough games to know how often that happens. But if it is 67 or 75% of the time then Austria should be able to win 60% of the time with best play.

This would make Austria a top tier country if you want to solo (here on Web Diplomacy, not against humans).

As we can see with the other games England has a much tougher row to hoe. Doug is doing a fabulous job leading England my guess is that he will be able to pull out the win. It is clear though that it requires a lot of experience and judgement and maybe luck to win with England.

The formula I have used for Austria I came to within a few games of playing. It is pretty simple and anyone who follows this game should be able to repeat it. Remember that I have been playing against bots on this site for only a few weeks.

With this in mind we might want to update the statistics for winning with Austria on our spreadsheets. Start fresh with 7 new games as Austria and see how many you win. My guess it that it will be four or five games.

Thoughts or comments??

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#148 Post by Trigfea63 » Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:11 pm

georgefc3 wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:26 pm
Some final remarks about my Austria game.

First, I think you can see it was a pretty easy win. At all times I counted on Italy to have my back. Italy in turn was extremely helpful and docile. I was able very quickly to take all of Turkey except Smyrna, which went to Italy. My program of rapid shipbuilding (or what passes as rapid for Austria) paid off. I was able to get a fleet into the Atlantic, which is not common for Austria.

Note that the Russian and Turkish bots worked with each other. Austrian human players should consider these two to be a team that needs to be faced by an Austrian/Italian team.

With Austria and Italy working together I was able to gain Galicia, then Rumania and Bulgaria. After that it is off to the races to 17.

Note that Italy was easily able to gain the Atlantic. My suggestion is that Austria should be able to win a large majority of the games where Italy doesn't attack it. I haven't played enough games to know how often that happens. But if it is 67 or 75% of the time then Austria should be able to win 60% of the time with best play.

This would make Austria a top tier country if you want to solo (here on Web Diplomacy, not against humans).

As we can see with the other games England has a much tougher row to hoe. Doug is doing a fabulous job leading England my guess is that he will be able to pull out the win. It is clear though that it requires a lot of experience and judgement and maybe luck to win with England.

The formula I have used for Austria I came to within a few games of playing. It is pretty simple and anyone who follows this game should be able to repeat it. Remember that I have been playing against bots on this site for only a few weeks.

With this in mind we might want to update the statistics for winning with Austria on our spreadsheets. Start fresh with 7 new games as Austria and see how many you win. My guess it that it will be four or five games.

Thoughts or comments??
I would only say, based on Doug's fairly large dataset, it's optimistic to think the Italy-bot will refrain from attacking Austria 75% of the time.

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#149 Post by Trigfea63 » Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:16 pm

I've been putting it off, but I must provide the next update on T-0128. The current board position:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Basically, the France-bot has outwitted me three consecutive turns, and France still has 6 SCs at the end of 1905. Meanwhile, I/T have (atypically) formed an alliance. They wiped out Austria, Turkey is almost finished wiping out Russia, and Italy is headed west. Argh!

I will soldier on, but the picture is not bright for a human solo this game.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#150 Post by DougJoe » Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:49 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:16 pm
I've been putting it off, but I must provide the next update on T-0128. The current board position:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

Basically, the France-bot has outwitted me three consecutive turns, and France still has 6 SCs at the end of 1905. Meanwhile, I/T have (atypically) formed an alliance. They wiped out Austria, Turkey is almost finished wiping out Russia, and Italy is headed west. Argh!

I will soldier on, but the picture is not bright for a human solo this game.
I don't think I/T necessarily have an alliance going, Italy took Bud and then Turkey tried to take it back... I also don't think Italy was necessarily *wanting* to go west, I think he was responding to your unit in WMS... but that doesn't mean he isn't going to try to kick you out of there this turn.

Tough luck with the guessing with Spa/Por - it doesn't help that your Germany ally has been relatively ineffectual. You do have MAO, and that's not nothing.

DougJoe
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#151 Post by DougJoe » Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:51 pm

Trigfea63 wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:11 pm
georgefc3 wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:26 pm
Some final remarks about my Austria game.

First, I think you can see it was a pretty easy win. At all times I counted on Italy to have my back. Italy in turn was extremely helpful and docile. I was able very quickly to take all of Turkey except Smyrna, which went to Italy. My program of rapid shipbuilding (or what passes as rapid for Austria) paid off. I was able to get a fleet into the Atlantic, which is not common for Austria.

Note that the Russian and Turkish bots worked with each other. Austrian human players should consider these two to be a team that needs to be faced by an Austrian/Italian team.

With Austria and Italy working together I was able to gain Galicia, then Rumania and Bulgaria. After that it is off to the races to 17.

Note that Italy was easily able to gain the Atlantic. My suggestion is that Austria should be able to win a large majority of the games where Italy doesn't attack it. I haven't played enough games to know how often that happens. But if it is 67 or 75% of the time then Austria should be able to win 60% of the time with best play.

This would make Austria a top tier country if you want to solo (here on Web Diplomacy, not against humans).

As we can see with the other games England has a much tougher row to hoe. Doug is doing a fabulous job leading England my guess is that he will be able to pull out the win. It is clear though that it requires a lot of experience and judgement and maybe luck to win with England.

The formula I have used for Austria I came to within a few games of playing. It is pretty simple and anyone who follows this game should be able to repeat it. Remember that I have been playing against bots on this site for only a few weeks.

With this in mind we might want to update the statistics for winning with Austria on our spreadsheets. Start fresh with 7 new games as Austria and see how many you win. My guess it that it will be four or five games.

Thoughts or comments??
I would only say, based on Doug's fairly large dataset, it's optimistic to think the Italy-bot will refrain from attacking Austria 75% of the time.
...agreed, although I really need to get the move data from the games downloaded, organized, and analyzed to prove it out.

There are Austrian games, too, where Austria does fine but one of the northern bots just does *better*.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#152 Post by Trigfea63 » Thu Aug 18, 2022 12:46 am

DougJoe wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:49 pm
I don't think I/T necessarily have an alliance going, Italy took Bud and then Turkey tried to take it back... I also don't think Italy was necessarily *wanting* to go west, I think he was responding to your unit in WMS... but that doesn't mean he isn't going to try to kick you out of there this turn.

Tough luck with the guessing with Spa/Por - it doesn't help that your Germany ally has been relatively ineffectual. You do have MAO, and that's not nothing.
Yep, you were right about I/T. They're at each other's throats in ION and Austria. They're also about evenly matched, so it might take a while for one to gain the upper hand in the East. This is all good.

Also good: I finally outguessed the pesky Kestas Bot (France) and nabbed Portugal this year. I built another fleet in Liverpool. Germany's also back on the French border with 3 units. I almost got him into Belgium ... I supported an attack from Holland instead of Ruhr.

Here is the current game state, Spring 1907:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

My thoughts at this point: NTH-->NWY to protect the STP army. It seems 2 units is an acceptable price to pay to keep Turkey locked out of Scandinavia. In Spain, it's a guessing game again. Italy doesn't seem hostile, so I could probably attack from Portugal with WES support. I kind of think France will play the same moves again. I might just break out my physical Diplomacy board and play out some scenarios.

If you guys have other ideas, I'm all ears.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#153 Post by DougJoe » Thu Aug 18, 2022 1:23 am

Trigfea63 wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 12:46 am
DougJoe wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:49 pm
I don't think I/T necessarily have an alliance going, Italy took Bud and then Turkey tried to take it back... I also don't think Italy was necessarily *wanting* to go west, I think he was responding to your unit in WMS... but that doesn't mean he isn't going to try to kick you out of there this turn.

Tough luck with the guessing with Spa/Por - it doesn't help that your Germany ally has been relatively ineffectual. You do have MAO, and that's not nothing.
Yep, you were right about I/T. They're at each other's throats in ION and Austria. They're also about evenly matched, so it might take a while for one to gain the upper hand in the East. This is all good.

Also good: I finally outguessed the pesky Kestas Bot (France) and nabbed Portugal this year. I built another fleet in Liverpool. Germany's also back on the French border with 3 units. I almost got him into Belgium ... I supported an attack from Holland instead of Ruhr.

Here is the current game state, Spring 1907:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

My thoughts at this point: NTH-->NWY to protect the STP army. It seems 2 units is an acceptable price to pay to keep Turkey locked out of Scandinavia. In Spain, it's a guessing game again. Italy doesn't seem hostile, so I could probably attack from Portugal with WES support. I kind of think France will play the same moves again. I might just break out my physical Diplomacy board and play out some scenarios.

If you guys have other ideas, I'm all ears.
I've had to do that in the past to help me visualize things. Backstabbr.com is nice because of the sandbox feature where you can rollback moves, but you have to start from game start in each sandbox. jDip lets you setup a position, but there's no easy rollback, you have to save your game before the adjudication and then reload it after the adjudication.

It probably would be prudent to play NTH to Nwy. Hopefully Germany doesn't go to NTH after that.

Oh, and I made some progress on my game analyzer app tonight: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LGkNo3 ... sp=sharing

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#154 Post by DougJoe » Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:02 am

Here's the number of times bot Italy entered a certain order for each of his three units in 304 of the games I played (one game where I was not included due to a game Id error in the base spreadsheet data). I don't have these yet as "sets" of orders, but I will get there.

The army at Venice move to Trieste.: 30
The army at Venice hold.: 75
The army at Venice move to Tyrolia.: 147
The army at Venice move to Piedmont.: 33
The army at Venice support hold to Trieste. : 19

The army at Rome move to Venice.: 180
The army at Rome move to Apulia.: 111
The army at Rome move to Naples.: 13

The fleet at Naples move to Tyrrhenian Sea.: 5
The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 299

Trigfea63
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Re: Austria vs Bots

#155 Post by Trigfea63 » Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:45 am

DougJoe wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:02 am
Here's the number of times bot Italy entered a certain order for each of his three units in 304 of the games I played (one game where I was not included due to a game Id error in the base spreadsheet data). I don't have these yet as "sets" of orders, but I will get there.

The army at Venice move to Trieste.: 30
The army at Venice hold.: 75
The army at Venice move to Tyrolia.: 147
The army at Venice move to Piedmont.: 33
The army at Venice support hold to Trieste. : 19

The army at Rome move to Venice.: 180
The army at Rome move to Apulia.: 111
The army at Rome move to Naples.: 13

The fleet at Naples move to Tyrrhenian Sea.: 5
The fleet at Naples move to Ionian Sea.: 299
Pretty cool. Bot-Italy opened Rome-->Venice 180 times. I think we can safely assume it didn't open Rome-->Venice and Venice hold, or Rome-->Venice and Venice support-hold Trieste. That leaves three openings for Venice that could go with the 180 Rome-->Venice openings: Trieste, Tyrolia, and Piedmont. Trieste (30 times) and Tyrolia (147 times) are hostile to Austria. Piedmont (33 times) probably isn't. So a minimum of 147 hostile openings and a maximum of 177. Or about 50-60% of the time.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#156 Post by georgefc3 » Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:03 am

Pretty cool. Bot-Italy opened Rome-->Venice 180 times. I think we can safely assume it didn't open Rome-->Venice and Venice hold, or Rome-->Venice and Venice support-hold Trieste. That leaves three openings for Venice that could go with the 180 Rome-->Venice openings: Trieste, Tyrolia, and Piedmont. Trieste (30 times) and Tyrolia (147 times) are hostile to Austria. Piedmont (33 times) probably isn't. So a minimum of 147 hostile openings and a maximum of 177. Or about 50-60% of the time.
Wow...

I've been lucky I guess. I've played Austria six times with three times and had a faithful Italian ally 4 times. Three wins. One loss (draw) when I covered Trieste rather than moving to Galicia in the fall.

So my personal situation is 67% of getting an Italian ally.

Any chance that the bots have change personalities (strategies) since this dataset was created? Or have I just been lucky? Remember I have only been playing a few weeks.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#157 Post by georgefc3 » Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:04 am

PS... I get 6 is an extremely small sample and I might just have been "lucky".

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#158 Post by DougJoe » Thu Aug 18, 2022 12:58 pm

georgefc3 wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:03 am
Pretty cool. Bot-Italy opened Rome-->Venice 180 times. I think we can safely assume it didn't open Rome-->Venice and Venice hold, or Rome-->Venice and Venice support-hold Trieste. That leaves three openings for Venice that could go with the 180 Rome-->Venice openings: Trieste, Tyrolia, and Piedmont. Trieste (30 times) and Tyrolia (147 times) are hostile to Austria. Piedmont (33 times) probably isn't. So a minimum of 147 hostile openings and a maximum of 177. Or about 50-60% of the time.
Wow...

I've been lucky I guess. I've played Austria six times with three times and had a faithful Italian ally 4 times. Three wins. One loss (draw) when I covered Trieste rather than moving to Galicia in the fall.

So my personal situation is 67% of getting an Italian ally.

Any chance that the bots have change personalities (strategies) since this dataset was created? Or have I just been lucky? Remember I have only been playing a few weeks.
georgefc3 wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:04 am
PS... I get 6 is an extremely small sample and I might just have been "lucky".
No worries! My intent was not to criticize the small sample size - I've been wanting to do this analysis for a long time and the discussion finally inspired me to do it. I think it's interesting in and of itself.

There was an upgrade to the bots early on when they were first released. If I remember correctly, I had only played a handful of games before the upgrade occurred. My understanding is that there are currently two bot personalities but I don't currently know often each is assigned or what the odds are of getting either.

I will try to write the "grouping" logic later today, but no guarantees.

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#159 Post by georgefc3 » Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:25 pm

Thanks Doug!

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Re: Austria vs Bots

#160 Post by Trigfea63 » Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:34 pm

I just noticed, all of the bots have the same powers in Doug's game and mine. Kestas Bot is France in both, Data is Russia in both, etc. In my previous games as England, the bots were all different powers.

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