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Will he overtake Federer's 20?

Yes.

No.

Yes.

No.

The debate rages

Yes!

I know this is not in line with the spirit of this thread, but I like statistics so let's look at the facts:

Federer:
First Grand Slam in 2003
Last in 2018
6 years older

Djokovic:
First in 2008
Last in 2019
6 years younger

If you look at the specific years in which they won:
Year Fed Nole
2003 1 0
2004 3 0
2005 2 0
2006 3 0
2007 3 0
2008 1 1
2009 2 0
2010 1 0
2011 0 3
2012 1 1
2013 0 1
2014 0 1
2015 0 3
2016 0 2
2017 2 0
2018 1 2
2019 0 1


You can see that Djokovic bloomed at a later age, and certainly did not show the hegemony Federer had at age 23-26.
After the age of 30, Federer won "only" 4 more Grand Slams. That's where Djokovic is now, so I would say it's too much of a stretch to predict he'll win another 6.

Verdict: It's certainly possible and even credible, but the odds definitely seem below 50%. So I say he will not make it.

It's amazing how well he bounced back from his injury/mentality breakdown, but it's just a lot for me to predict he'll win 6 more. Especially with young players like Zverev, Tsitsipas, Chung on the cusp of breaking through. Winning the French will be a tall order with Nadal still around.

It's amazing that Fed has been able to maintain his high level through age 37. That shouldn't be the expectation that Djokovic will be able to as well. I'm not saying he can't, but if I'm betting, I give him 2-4 more and still consider him one of the three greatest players of all time.

Give me a break (no pun intended) with your logical, statistical mumbo jumbo. He will get to 21 because he will!
Although it wouldn't be a great sursprise if Roger takes one more at some point.

Beware of extrapolation from statistics. If you had looked at the exponential growth in the number of Elvis impersonators by 1979, you would confidently predict that by 2020 there would be 5.6 Billion Elvis impersonators.
With that caveat, I still think Djokovic will pass Federer due to his mental toughness and stamina. The demolition of Rafa was frightening.

Calmar wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:29 am

Beware of extrapolation from statistics. If you had looked at the exponential growth in the number of Elvis impersonators by 1979, you would confidently predict that by 2020 there would be 5.6 Billion Elvis impersonators.
...

No, I would not have predicted that.

Yes.

Djokovic is one extraordinary person and player. With his talent and spirit he could easily achieve the title of best tennis player ever. There is only one factor I can see that could take this away from bim. He is very emotional person and he plays with his soul. People who give so much of themselves to some goal can experience overburn. People who can be calm like ice are more durable and last longer. Time will tell.

Sweet 16.

He's got to catch Nadal too. Who has 2 more grand slam titles, and is only one year older than Djokovic. I say no.

It will be interesting. Lets see what happens on US open.

Go Nole, go!

Odvaliće ih redom, živi bili pa videli. Pozdrav, Dejane.

That was a great final, Federer certainly had his opportunities to win. Because I am in Australia that was a huge night of sport on TV for me, the tennis, world cup Cricket final and a stage of the Tour of France bicycle race.