There may be no "luck" involved but there sure is a good amount of "variance" in these games concerning effects restricted to an ongoing game which you cannot influence. Gametheory says your EV (expected value) in any multiplayer situation can be influenced by action of 3rd parties you are unable to...

Ger made a bad call in Aut 01. Mun is imho the least attractive of the 3 available options. If he can build A Mun in Winter01 then you cannot build F Brest. If that happens it could very well be game over right there. I think Bur-Bel in Aut01 > your decision. if you loose Bur you still get builds in...

Fra might have to gamble on BUR more often going to Pic+Spain+MAO.
Also which discordchannel?

Being kind of new to the game I´d like to suggest that part of the Russian problem might be that his moves are too predictable. Giving that he suffers worse from bounces in Swe or Gal than his opponent he might have to take the first step in risking occasionally moves that are suboptimally. E.g. mov...

looking for mentor.
i use discord + skype.

Would like to join as player if possible. Mentor would be nice if possible.