MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[Balki Bartokomous]

<snip>

It is clear that the remaining mafia were distancing from lfischl.

To summarize: you found posts where all the remaining VTs were pushing fish?

Yes, not including myself.

Bozo, can you dig a little deeper on this please? Can you look at what was said and when it was said, and try to analyze which VT pushes on Fish look sincere and which look like bussing or distancing?

[damo666]

@damo:

For the Dumb (and Distracted) Bunny, can you elaborate again on why not rdr? I'm also not looking to vote him today, but I'm getting lost on why *you* don't want to.

I've said this several times. His voting pattern does not fit a scumbo. Also getting increasing towny vibes.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@damo:

For the Dumb (and Distracted) Bunny, can you elaborate again on why not rdr? I'm also not looking to vote him today, but I'm getting lost on why *you* don't want to.

I've said this several times. His voting pattern does not fit a scumbo. Also getting increasing towny vibes.

What part of rdrivera's voting pattern? Can you spend some time to make this point, or direct us to the post where you did this?

[Chaqa]

It was bad. I guess I was saying a 2-1 lurker split more likely than 3-0 (I think that would be avoided even if they were all natural lurkers) and maybe more likely than 1-2.

But tbh I don't see much value in pursuing that route.

Just trying to see if damo's bad math implied an Baysean assumption he already KNEW...

jury still out...

but take 3 scum points.

Yes as a recently high poster I suggested a relatively high poster as scum to set myself up.

It is as clear as mud I'm town. An added reason to suspect Chaqa.

This post is as far as I’ve gotten catching up.

If no one else has called out this bullshit by the time I reach this post, I’m done with y’all for this game. Kick me out and let me forget about it

[Chaqa]

Hey look at that, no one did!

Good luck all, hopefully Koala gambled on me dying today

[Balki Bartokomous]

I just read rdrivera's ISO. I feel townier on him after reading.

Reasons for suspcion:

(1) I felt like he was too trusting of me after my CWV claim, in a way that is consistent with scum who have no reason to be paranoid:

I don't know if Balki claim is true or not but I strongly think he is town. Don't see any reason for scum to fake claim about it at this moment. Don't know if the claim is a benefit for town, it depends on a lot of variables, but it's a good way to be sure you stay alive longer, which I can see Balki thinking it's a huge benefit (to him).

True, but it could backfire badly to Mafia if there is a real CWV that get exposed or even if other PRs are exposed and it's clear there is no CWV. But you have a point it's a way to get some initial credit. But I still don't think it's the case.

(2) He sat out EOD1, which is consistent with scum motivation in a vote that we now know was town v town.

(3) He has generally been low impact and has not taken risks or ruffled feathers. It may just be his style, but it is not a paradigmatic VT game. Feels too safe and hidden.

Reasons he looks towny:

(1) His N1 defense of worcej looks pretty good in retrospect:

I saw it. I also don't want to kill Worcej, he is usually much better when he is scum.

(2) His D2 defense of worcej looks good in retrospect:

I know I agreed with the night voting, but I don't like the idea of ending the day right now before people participating and giving his thoughts. The fact I don't scumread Worcej mat have a part on this too.

He was also Doctor last game and didn't crumb as far as I remember. You can look on the bot if you want.

(3) This comment towards lfischl doesn't feel to me like a comment among teammates:

I don't want to be mean, real life is real life and I am also considered a lurker sometimes, but this is the second time (that I remember) you say you will be participating more. Maybe you should start participating more, don't you think?

(4) I don't think he is paired with Bo because of this post.

CONCLUSION: I don't want us to chop rdrivera today.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I just read Chaqa's ISO from the last game played here. Chaqa was Town. He was alive the whole game and he voted wrong in the end, which resulted in a scum win.

Two things I noticed:

(1) Chaqa Shows Genuine Solve Energy and Logic as Town

I'll paste some examples below, but these are not all of them by any means. Town!Chaqa is all over the thread posting theories, whipping votes, and speculating about answers to the puzzle:

I've highlighted an especially egregious sentence from Damo that just shows Damo is arguing in bad faith and has no idea why I suspect Bozo or why I would vote him over a town read of mine in celaph.

Damo is either scum or not actively reading, which is unusual for him, no?

Like why does he get any town cred

If he’s mafia he lied about who he petted
If he’s town mafia wouldn’t care who pets who anyway

And by your logic me petting rivera on the night he’s killed should be important

There’s no consistency or logic to your game at all

1. Man I didn't even set up the bot, of course I forgot about the game.
2. Damo is scummy
3. TBH I forgot the exact line of thought that led to it, but I'm relatively sure it was because scum!Lfischl has no reason to switch to Bunny over me and breaking a tie is very towny
4. Are you for real? I voted Bona as a joke, and then I wasn't around for like 10 hours. When I got back, I was on my phone intermittent, and as soon as I got a chance to see a vote count I voted for you over celaph, who I town read.

I think you're one of those people who just can't see any other playstyle but yours as valid, or you're scum.

If I vote for worcej now, the wagon will balloon and people will go "woe is me there's NO WAY scum wagon would be so large, we must panic and vote out someone else in the last hour!"

So instead I'll come back to worcej when it actually means something.

If I was at all confident webdip as a community could stick to its guns, I would be voting worcej right now.

There's this weird Bozo-damo axis hyper-focused on me and I can't really figure out a scum motivation for it, outside me being a potential miskill.

Which is why I'm leaning toward worcej today.

This statement conveys no actual analysis or new information.

Like of course we need to get scum today or it's gonna be 4-3.

Well, there's three mafia in Bozo, Damo, Heart, Kak, and Fisch. I'm super confident Kak is town. So... i figure Bozo is about 75% likely to be mafia. The Ghug kill is a bit perplexing.

TBH I think Heart is the most likely mafia at this point.

Unrelated - I wasn't even joking when I said I should be town clear for ghug's N1 death. I know this is a meme, but scum!Chaqa would literally NEVER kill ghug.

I think Day 2 provides the most room for analysis. Two realms:

#1: Bozo is scum
In this scenario, Bozo barely escaped the noose. His teammate heart voted with him to save him, but the last teammate either voted for him (which seems unlikely at this point in the game) or was Damo.

So I posit: if Bozo is scum, his teammate MUST be damo. The reverse is not necessarily true.

#2: Bozo is town
In this scenario, celaph was killed with only one mafia voting for him. In this case, mafia would not be caring about the outcome of this TvT day. This would fit with either Kak or Damo. Interestingly, Lfischl was voting for Heart before voting for Bozo.

I think I'm going to lock in my vote on Damo for today.

(2) Chaqa Had a Hard Town Read on Lfischl All Game and Ended Up Casting a Losing Vote in the End Based on That

This was the Epilogue from Chaqa:

should have trusted Kak. Sigh.

Well done Lfischl. I was super pocketed.

After losing a game like that, and then playing with lfschl again a couple of weeks later, we should expect Chaqa to bring some healthy paranoia about lfischl's alignment to this game and maybe talk through how and why he got lfischl wrong last game.

[damo666]

What can be gleaned from voting [imo]

Day 1

Balki - nothing
Bozo - nothing
Bo - towny as previously argued
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - he voted for me with votes at 2 each for fish,Bunny, ghug, worcej; he could have voted any of those 3 town to help fish so I would argue this is towny

Day 2

Balki - nothing
Bozo - arguably not scummate with bo
Bo - nothing
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - nothing

Day 3

Balki - moved off rdr when rdr got his second vote, slight suspicion only
Bozo - as per D2
Bo - kinda confirms not scummate with Bozo
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - again arguably not scummate of fish

Summary

Bo and rdr probably town so scumpair in {Chaqa, Bozo, Balki} in that order.

@Balki this is the post you were asking about my view on rdr

Bozo (and perhaps you, can't remember) have criticised it though. However, I still stand by it.

[damo666]

Hey look at that, no one did!

Good luck all, hopefully Koala gambled on me dying today

Bye.

If Koala is gambler we've wasted a lot of energy. Well, maybe not you.

[damo666]

##vote Chaqa

[Balki Bartokomous]

What can be gleaned from voting [imo]

Day 1

Balki - nothing
Bozo - nothing
Bo - towny as previously argued
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - he voted for me with votes at 2 each for fish,Bunny, ghug, worcej; he could have voted any of those 3 town to help fish so I would argue this is towny

Day 2

Balki - nothing
Bozo - arguably not scummate with bo
Bo - nothing
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - nothing

Day 3

Balki - moved off rdr when rdr got his second vote, slight suspicion only
Bozo - as per D2
Bo - kinda confirms not scummate with Bozo
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - again arguably not scummate of fish

Summary

Bo and rdr probably town so scumpair in {Chaqa, Bozo, Balki} in that order.

@Balki this is the post you were asking about my view on rdr

Bozo (and perhaps you, can't remember) have criticised it though. However, I still stand by it.

I lean town on rdrivera Damo, but this reason for you to lean town on him is poor, in my opinion.

rdrivera missed EOD1, and his effort and activity were very low. Not only that, but lfischl was not in particular danger on Day 1. It mostly came down to worcej vs. pyxx. So the idea that Scum!rdrivera would have done something more to save fish that day is pretty strange. It doesn't match the evidence at all.

[bozotheclown]

To summarize: you found posts where all the remaining VTs were pushing fish?

Yes, not including myself.

Bozo, can you dig a little deeper on this please? Can you look at what was said and when it was said, and try to analyze which VT pushes on Fish look sincere and which look like bussing or distancing?

I already mentioned the D2 bo_sox post that you commented on, and the other thing I mentioned was that I did not see Chaqa making any comments about lfischl until D3, despite lfischl saying a few times that he wanted to DK Chaqa.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I'm starting through Chaqa's ISO here now. First thing I notice:

Chaqa doesn't say anthing about lfischl's alignment until Day 3, page 84 here.

This is the player who just fooled Chaqa and caused Chaqa to lose in the most recent mafia game.

And then Chaqa votes Lfischl and says that he has a scum read on lfischl four times:

Here, here, here, and here.

While Chaqa voted for lfischl (at a time when lfischl had no votes) and says that lfischl was Chaqa's scummiest scum read, Chaqa literally gave zero reasons why he suspected lfischl and did not encourage anyone else to vote for lfischl.

The only time Chaqa actually said something substantive about lfischl is here in response to a question:

It could be lfischl.

What is the general profile on lfischl? I've just found him low interest/low impact in this game, but I don't really know which way that points for him.

On the bright side, I'm kind of sick of looking up the correct ordering of all those consonants every time I have to type his name.

On the downside, all we've really done in this game is chop the low-hanging fruit/low activity players. That doesn't mean it's not a hit this time. I just wish someone would sell me on it.

Last game he was scum and fooled me at final 3 with a similar playstyle, though he seemed a bit more invested that game, but also it was over a break from school, I think.

Not exactly a compelling case for anyone else to vote lfischl, who Chaqa had said consistently was his top scumread. This is basically a soft, half-hearted reason why lfischl is not scum. Chaqa is saying that the playstyle was the same last game, but the investment was different. That's essentially a town case, if anything.

* * * * *

So, this looks like a classic case of scum getting locked into a bus:

(1) Chaqa voted lfischl when there was nobody on that wagon.
(2) Chaqa wanted us all to know that Chaqa had lfischl down as his top scumread, but he did not say anything negative about lfischl or encourage anyone to vote there.
(3) Chaqa stayed on that wagon because he was locked there by the things he had already said. Chaqa even felt out a vote switch in the final minutes here, even though town was chopping Chaqa's so-called top scum suspect.

The most glaring reason this all looks suspicious is the context of the game before. We would think that Town!Chaqa would have A LOT to say about lfischl. Chaqa was just fooled by lfischl and it cost Chaqa in the prior game. That is the last time Chaqa played mafia. So, Chaqa rolls town again here, and begins to suspect lfischl here, and has literally nothing to say to try to convince anyone else that lfischl is scum?

I don't think so.

I think the most likely explanation is that this is not Town!Chaqa

[KoalaAttack]

Bed time for me.

Koala, if you’re looking for something to do, my advice is:

Re-read Day 1. You can probably skip over the posts from the clears and the dead. Focus on the VT claimers. Look for things that stand out, now that you know so many other alignments that you didn’t know when you read this the first time. Especially look for posts that can help show that particular combinations of the VTs are unlikely to be Mafia teammates. Eliminating these potential pairs is really helpful in solving the puzzle. If you see something that you think can help us eliminate a pair, quote it here and talk about it.

ISO the VT claimers. You can do this in Peterbot. For posts that stand out to you, think about the possible scum motivation for making the post. Think about the possible Town motivation for making the post. Evaluate which motivation strikes you as more likely.

Hmm... this feels off.

I've already sent you a bot link with your own ISO in that discussion of the fake binding vote. And I have already been talking about doing ISOs with Bunny and I have already posted at least one unpairing I found. Given that your very advice is to carefully read through what others posted, I can only assume you did not flat out miss those.

So, to apply your rubric:

The Town motivation for this post above would be... Stating the obvious that I already know? ... Honestly, the best I can come up with is "good intentions, honest mistake, simply doesn't quite know how to pair/mentor someone without overbearing" ... So, question for the rest of the folks who know Balki: does that sounds like typical Balki?

The Mafia motivation for this post though is quite clear ... butter up the new guy with nice-sounding but not actually new/useful advice, assume the role of a vizier for them, gently guide then right where you want them. And it does tie in interestingly to your earlier statements about how we should just let the PRs decide things.

I would like both Bunny and Balki (and anyone else) to grade my thinking here and/or respond to my question about Balki.

BTW, it really grows my suspicion when Balki posts and responds to some of my points where I suspect him or answers some of my questions, but just kind of skips the others. This has happened several times now. If you are a Town Balki, you are really not helping your case but leaving these threads handing.

[Chaqa]

@Balki:

I suspect our failures to find common ground are simply due to two VERY different personalities. Your entire assumption is that I would be worried about Lfischl because of last game.

I am being 100% honest when I say that, as far as I can remember, it has not factored into my play at all until the post I made in response to you.

You may not believe that. That's fine.

I'll pull a quote from worcej from LAST GAME here:

Why would you support a Chaqa wagon?

Also, is this message abobe the message that you were referring to here:

Does chaqa have a history of just buddying people?

He’s done it in the past as scum, but chaqa is not someone who is consistent with his game.

I'm sorry I can't answer more to your satisfaction or convince you I'm town, I wish I could, but you simply are trying to get blood from a stone here.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Bed time for me.

Koala, if you’re looking for something to do, my advice is:

Re-read Day 1. You can probably skip over the posts from the clears and the dead. Focus on the VT claimers. Look for things that stand out, now that you know so many other alignments that you didn’t know when you read this the first time. Especially look for posts that can help show that particular combinations of the VTs are unlikely to be Mafia teammates. Eliminating these potential pairs is really helpful in solving the puzzle. If you see something that you think can help us eliminate a pair, quote it here and talk about it.

ISO the VT claimers. You can do this in Peterbot. For posts that stand out to you, think about the possible scum motivation for making the post. Think about the possible Town motivation for making the post. Evaluate which motivation strikes you as more likely.

Hmm... this feels off.

I've already sent you a bot link with your own ISO in that discussion of the fake binding vote. And I have already been talking about doing ISOs with Bunny and I have already posted at least one unpairing I found. Given that your very advice is to carefully read through what others posted, I can only assume you did not flat out miss those.

So, to apply your rubric:

The Town motivation for this post above would be... Stating the obvious that I already know? ... Honestly, the best I can come up with is "good intentions, honest mistake, simply doesn't quite know how to pair/mentor someone without overbearing" ... So, question for the rest of the folks who know Balki: does that sounds like typical Balki?

The Mafia motivation for this post though is quite clear ... butter up the new guy with nice-sounding but not actually new/useful advice, assume the role of a vizier for them, gently guide then right where you want them. And it does tie in interestingly to your earlier statements about how we should just let the PRs decide things.

I would like both Bunny and Balki (and anyone else) to grade my thinking here and/or respond to my question about Balki.

BTW, it really grows my suspicion when Balki posts and responds to some of my points where I suspect him or answers some of my questions, but just kind of skips the others. This has happened several times now. If you are a Town Balki, you are really not helping your case but leaving these threads handing.

Responses:

(1) You literally posted this directly after I made a post that said "Bed time for me." I went to bed.

(2) When I read your post, I just gave a little eye roll. I did not see anything to respond to.

(3) I still do not see anything to respond to, but I'll comment because you've just asked me directly.

(4) Just because I advise people to read carefully, it doesn't follow that I am aware of everything in the thread. I don't remember that you have used ISOs or referred to ISOs. I really haven't spent much time reading your posts since you became clear town, and even before then, I haven't scrutinized you very carefully because I was able to read you as town pretty quickly. You shouldn't expect that I have in my mind everything you have written in this thread or even close to it.

(5) I was offering advice. I think this is your first game. I know you're on my team. I'm going to give you advice.

Sorry if it is advice you don't need. Sorry if I've overlooked your skillset. I was just going to bed and I wanted to give you advice on where to direct your effort. It is the kind of thing I would do as either alignment.

[dargorygel]

Vote Count 4.4
bo_sox48 (3): bozo, Balki, Bunny
chaqa (2): rdr, damo
damo666 (1): Chaqa
KoalaAttack (1) Koala
Not voted: Bo
Bo_sox is on deck to strike out
2 hours and 40 minutes to go today

[Balki Bartokomous]

Chaqa/Bo is my best bet.

I think that voting Bo first is a good idea. Having some clarity on that D2 vote would be useful, and I think the Bo/lfischl interactions make a pretty good case for Scum!Bo.

[BunnyGo]

Good news! Appointment ended 3 hours early (successfully!)

Running errands now, should be available at EOD

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki:

I suspect our failures to find common ground are simply due to two VERY different personalities. Your entire assumption is that I would be worried about Lfischl because of last game.

I am being 100% honest when I say that, as far as I can remember, it has not factored into my play at all until the post I made in response to you.

You may not believe that. That's fine.

I'll pull a quote from worcej from LAST GAME here:

Does chaqa have a history of just buddying people?

He’s done it in the past as scum, but chaqa is not someone who is consistent with his game.

I'm sorry I can't answer more to your satisfaction or convince you I'm town, I wish I could, but you simply are trying to get blood from a stone here.

What was it that you found scummy about Lfischl this game? You never told us.

Why didn’t you try to convince other people to vote lfischl? In your most recent game as town, you tried to convince people to vote your scumread all the time.