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Finished: 12 AM Wed 24 Mar 21 UTC
Hitler Had a Farting Problem
1 day /phase
Pot: 35 D - Spring, 1910, Finished
Classic, Anonymous players, Sum-of-Squares Scoring
1 excused missed turn
Game drawn
22 Mar 21 UTC Autumn, 1909: Only person who stands to gain from continuing this game is Germany. I can understand why Germany wouldn’t want to draw on the off chance that we screw up a move. I can tell you that I’ll do everything in my power to block France from advancing, even if our line is broken, to solidify a German solo. If Germany breaks the line, they deserve the solo
22 Mar 21 UTC Autumn, 1909: U cute
22 Mar 21 UTC Autumn, 1909: Let's keep playing the game, shall we?
22 Mar 21 UTC Autumn, 1909: Am I cute or is it Turkey? Just want to know.
22 Mar 21 UTC Autumn, 1909: Oh u both cute
22 Mar 21 UTC Autumn, 1909: Thank you for your potential respects, Turkey, but I and France agreed to shuve a few SCs around if you happen to mess up like no-one ever did ;)
So anyway, I'd like to see if and what you guys support hold here before I can definitively say that there's no point in continuing because there is still a piece missing in my analysis which I'd like to have for a final decision.
So yeah, France and I are on the same side, it seems, so let's have another closer look...
22 Mar 21 UTC Autumn, 1909: That's fair enough Germany. No harm in asking, particularly if there is agreement that we have a stalemate.

Good luck with the rest of the game.

On the other hand, I am hurt. I thought I was the cute one. But I guess you can't always get what you want.
22 Mar 21 UTC Autumn, 1909: To me, you're the cute one, don't worry ;)

Yeah, I'm happy you guys are asking. Having some propper global press in the game, even when it's near the end, always is quite enjoyable.
22 Mar 21 UTC Autumn, 1909: Thanks Germany. Made my day.
23 Mar 21 UTC This is pointless
23 Mar 21 UTC As a neutral party, I think that you guys should play this out. I'm curious to see how long this stalemate can last
23 Mar 21 UTC It’s going to take a long time. Even if they manage to advance, it will still take a very very long time
23 Mar 21 UTC Good thing we’re in a pandemic. :)
23 Mar 21 UTC What pandemic?
23 Mar 21 UTC Alright, Italy, Turkey, you did well, GG.
Like this, the stell mate is perfect if I didn't miss anything so I voted draw and respect your work, very well done :)
23 Mar 21 UTC Thank you, Germany
23 Mar 21 UTC I guess c'est la vie
23 Mar 21 UTC GG everyone, that was an amazing game :)
Thank you
23 Mar 21 UTC Thanks all
23 Mar 21 UTC The one weakness I saw still was Tyrolia to Vienna with Bohemia support. Either Italy would lose Vienna or Venice in that scenario, but it was a guessing game. Even so, I would have put a fleet in the Adriatic and built a new stalemate
23 Mar 21 UTC Good game all. I've never been a vassal state before and it wasn't a lot of fun. No matter. See you all down the boards.
23 Mar 21 UTC Not at all, Turkey, because BUD is free to support hold VIE while TRI hits TYR and RUM.
With Rome hitting TUS and APU holding VEN there is no way to break the stell mate.
23 Mar 21 UTC Incorrect.

Tyrolia could attack Vienna with Bohemia support, Galicia could attack Budapest to cut support hold. You would be in
23 Mar 21 UTC Why didn't you press on? No one forced you to draw?
23 Mar 21 UTC I had a busy day at work and trusted germany's analysis lol, didn't feel like pushing everyone
23 Mar 21 UTC I'm a bit new to this game but couldn't Trieste cut off Tryolia's support, or would the fact that Munich is supporting Tryolia make a difference?
23 Mar 21 UTC As Tyrolia is attacking, Trieste moving to Tyrolia would not stop the move. However, if Trieste support held Vienna, then this move would fail.

However, if Trieste support held Vienna in anticipation of the above AND Tyrolia supported Tuscany to Venice with Piedmont support, then Venice would fall to France.

If given infinite iterations, either Venice OR Vienna would have fallen eventually. Even that result though would not have ended the game. Hence my comment about it being a long long time until a solution was reached. I think a draw was ultimately inevitable.
24 Mar 21 UTC "However, if Trieste support held Vienna in anticipation of the above AND Tyrolia supported Tuscany to Venice with Piedmont support, then Venice would fall to France."
But TUS's support would fail because of Rome cutting it.
24 Mar 21 UTC We could only have entered TYR S by manouvering a fleet into TUS that would then be supported into TYR S, however that would still not do too much because we can't advance into ION S and neither would that solve the issues with Rome and APU.
It would have been possible that we could have used that setup to get an army back into TUS and have one in PIE (so basically like now but with us in TYR S) and threaten Rome but that would still fail because NAP would have nothing to do besides support holding Rome (and your B S fleet should be in AEG S by then if you'd be paying attention).
24 Mar 21 UTC Tuscany is attacking Venice, not supporting. Therefore, Rome would. It be cutting
24 Mar 21 UTC Rome would NOT* be cutting
24 Mar 21 UTC Well, if TUS is attack that means that TYR is supporting which would be cute by TRI.
24 Mar 21 UTC We need 1 unit to attack and 2 to support ... that equals 3 ... because VEN is being held by APU ... that equals 2.

If TUS attacks, both PIE and TYR have to support but TYR's support is getting cut by TRI so that fails.
If TYR attacks, both PIE and TUS have to support but TUS's suppport is getting cut by Rome so that also fails.
24 Mar 21 UTC Not if Trieste was supporting Vienna to hold!
24 Mar 21 UTC But that would be a stupid thing to do because BUD already has nothing to do besides fulfilling that role.
24 Mar 21 UTC ...just like RUM has nothing to do besides tapping GAL
24 Mar 21 UTC And with both TYR and GAL tapped there is only one unit left that can provide supported into VIE: BOH.
But that's 2 ... against 2 (VIE and BUD)
24 Mar 21 UTC Not if Galicia cuts Budapest support. My point is, it was possible for either Vienna OR Venice to fall given infinite iterations
24 Mar 21 UTC It was just a function of whether or not Trieste attacked Tyrolia or support held Vienna. If Trieste support held Vienna, it was possible for Tuscany to take Venice. If Trieste attacked Tyrolia, it was possible for Tyrolia to take Vienna
24 Mar 21 UTC Ah, now I see.
Yes, that's is true.
...though I wouldn't deem it worth the mess at this point, you deserve the draw.
24 Mar 21 UTC For those of you who have taken a probability class, you’re looking at the following:

P(TYR->VIE && TRI->TYR) | P(TUS->VEN && TRI sup VIE)
24 Mar 21 UTC I had that last year in school and though I don't know that way of writing it (might be thing with it being different depending on where you live) I know what you mean.
You're basically considering what's more likely to happen and making the corresponding move, even though getting a proper probability is practically impossible here.
24 Mar 21 UTC [...due to human elements etc.]
24 Mar 21 UTC You’d basically have to just count all the possible moves and it’s 2 divided by that. I haven’t done the work myself but my guess is it’s below 20%
24 Mar 21 UTC Whoa maths
24 Mar 21 UTC Makes me want to know what crypto y’all are holding lol
24 Mar 21 UTC Shouldn't it be 50/50 not counting in the human elements and so on you can't really estimate here?
I mean, there's just 2 reasonable variants:
proper attack on Vienna / proper attack on Venice
...and it is to decide what is going to happen and thus defend accordingly.

2 cases have neutral results, a bounce, where you guess our attacking plan correctly
2 cases result in a gain for us, either VEN or VIE falling

24 Mar 21 UTC I guess logically 4 moves:

1) Tyrolia attacks Vienna, Trieste support holds Vienna, FAIL
2) Tyrolia attacks Vienna, Trieste attacks Tyrolia, SUCCESS
3) Tyrolia supports Tuscany to Venice, Trieste attacks Tyrolia, FAIL
4) Tyrolia supports Tuscany to Venice, Trieste support holds Vienna, SUCCESS

So yes, 50/50 assuming all involved players have the same information
25 Mar 21 UTC We would have broken through

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

geoghard (136 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 14 D
11 supply-centers, 11 units
mimillman (209 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 12 D
10 supply-centers, 10 units
Succotash (117 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 9 D
9 supply-centers, 9 units
Richmond (105 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 2 D
4 supply-centers, 4 units
BBmolla (108 D)
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charlbaker (100 D)
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Dumaroo (128 D)
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