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Finished: 11 PM Sun 11 Apr 21 UTC
Private 2020 World Cup Group B Gunboat 2
1 day, 12 hours /phase
Pot: 35 D - Autumn, 1918, Finished
Classic, No messaging, Anonymous players, Unranked
3 excused missed turn
Game drawn
09 Jan 21 UTC Spring, 1901: Moderator: (goldfinger0303): Good to go, no shuffle needed. Good luck everyone
12 Feb 21 UTC Autumn, 1907: GameMaster: Game was extended due to at least 1 member failing to enter orders and having an excused missed turn available. This has un-readied all orders.
19 Mar 21 UTC Spring, 1913: GameMaster: Game was extended due to at least 1 member failing to enter orders and having an excused missed turn available. This has un-readied all orders.
19 Mar 21 UTC Spring, 1913: Moderator: (goldfinger0303): I see everyone has entered orders, so I'm pushing the phase through.
07 Apr 21 UTC Autumn, 1916: Moderator: (goldfinger0303): Not pushing you guys, but readying these last few phases would be a treat :)
08 Apr 21 UTC Spring, 1918: Moderator: (goldfinger0303): As a reminder, since we're coming up on the time limit, this game will be force drawn after Fall 1920
10 Apr 21 UTC I have a lot of of acidic things to say about this game, but it is tempered by the fact I got the result we needed. Gg
10 Apr 21 UTC Gg, and congrats to umble to making it through. Obviously gutted that there was a turn I could have soloed with a correct guess.
10 Apr 21 UTC Russia's moves in the north were especially concerning. JUST LOCK DOWN THE LINE! Taking back Trieste...twice? Why tempt fate. These last two games were the most boring games I ever played. I played on 5 centers for almost 20 game years. Proud of the defense I suppose but still...4 months of that was not fun. I'm even somewhat disappointed you didn't solo because I fear having to do this again lol.
10 Apr 21 UTC And a congratulations to teccles for his dominant performance in both games. Let's see how it goes in the finals :)
10 Apr 21 UTC I'm not sure what you mean about the North? Russia had some annoying pressure on Berlin/Scandinavia, and never looked like losing the line, really. But on Trieste I couldn't agree more; those grabs gave me a lot of hope.

And yeah, your defense was very good here (and in the other game). You struck a good balance between defending against the solo threat and not letting Russia mess with you too much. As for my performance... it's gunboat, so I expect in the final I'll be eliminated twice before I can blink :-)
10 Apr 21 UTC He needs armies in Gal, Ukr, and Sev or the line will be lost eventually. Probably not enough time to grind him down but you have to have that for the line to be solid. Prussia and Livonia will fall eventually no matter what. But if you don't have those back up units than Silesia is most likely next and then Warsaw will be lost.
10 Apr 21 UTC Maybe I'm just too conservative on this here but there were a lot of risks that were happening in the north.
10 Apr 21 UTC on both sides.
10 Apr 21 UTC gg - unfortunate timing, though, and wish you had waited for the builds before drawing. I was about to unset my draw flag, because in case it made a difference, Germany deserved to go through to the next round and Italy didn't - Italy's tactical awareness over the past year confirmed that for me.

Good luck to everybody in the next round.
10 Apr 21 UTC @Italy:

Yeah - while I agree about that weakness in the North, it's easily reinforced (e.g. by building SEV, moving to UKR, then building SEV again when PRU/LVN blows up - and don't worry about losing SIL, which you don't need if you hold PIE). There may have been a moment where Russia actually risked a centre, but I don't think so.

On my side there were certainly risks; I could have lost BER with my moveset where I moved to BAR. I thought that was well worth the trade to lock up St P, which I didn't have a way to do without a risk somewhere.

@Russia: huh, so you were going to throw me the game?
10 Apr 21 UTC And Austria...sorry lol. But when you didn't support yourself to Greece I was like...not hitching my cart to this horse.
10 Apr 21 UTC Oh yeah, I'd forgotten that opening. I love the idea of Trieste->AI, and was disappointed when it didn't play out like that.
10 Apr 21 UTC So I did everything I could to show Russia I wanted to work with him and he hungry hippo stabs me for 1 center (the whole game) and then stabs Turkey almost immediately afterwards. Normally that gets punished big time but regardless it slows down Russia. This very much reminds me of the ODC that we were in except Russia played much better but the concept and result was the same.
10 Apr 21 UTC Oh wait you were Russia...this is awkward :)
10 Apr 21 UTC And I meant that you as Russia played much better. Not this guy.
10 Apr 21 UTC Since you asked, my moves in the north were pretty straightforward and governed by three key imperatives:

1) Since Italy couldn't figure out that he needed a third fleet, even after I gave him a retreat to make one, and didn't want to let my fleets in, there was always going to be the chance of the temporary or permanent loss of Tunis. The best defense against this was preventing a fourth German fleet from coming south by 1920, which meant that creating a threat axis that tied up two German fleets was more important than even a guaranteed but temporary occupation of StP. This ended up being critical, because once Italy put the fleet build in Nap instead of Rom, there was always going to be at least a guess available around Tun, and if that English fleet had instead been a German one, then the position would have become a virtual win (with the finite endstate, merely a likely win).

2) It was important not to actually succeed in taking StP before S19, because I could have held it for three turns in some scenarios but not longer, and Italy had already demonstrated an appalling inability to count to 18. After all, if Italy wanted a completely safe 3-way draw, all he had to do was to wait two turns before sacrificing England, so throwing E overboard immediately shows the same lack of understanding of how the strategic situation inevitably develops that leads to an isolated army in Albania for years on end. So, a scenario in which it looked like Italy could safely sacrifice Tunis in some sort of crazy pursuit of Trieste rather than just putting his forces in position to draw was something to be avoided, and thus I didn't want to take StP except under very specific circumstances. I think Germany recognized this as well and was able to take advantage, and I was okay with his taking advantage as long as he had to use both fleets to do so. So I think we were both satisfied with the outcome in the north.

3) The combination of Italy's impatience in jettisoning England, peculiar fascination with Trieste, and inability to recognize the the number of fleets needed to hold the position made me decide that the only way to handle the situation was to force there to be only one possible moveset which did not immediately lose, since under those circumstances I could predict what Italy would do. So, it was better to retake Tri, restricting the Italian options, than to let him have an extra unit with which to get creative, especially since it probably would have somehow been an army when a fleet was needed. The fact that the German ruse produced an immediate, impatient reaction from Italy rather than waiting an additional turn, I think, is further evidence that this was sound.

I'd have played the north much differently if I felt I could rely on Italy, but I had about 15 years of game experience to prove otherwise.
10 Apr 21 UTC For most of the game, we needed 5 centers to secure our spot.
10 Apr 21 UTC Both me and teccles agree on your south moves. This is a classic doesn't know what he doesn't know. The way you played that game convinced us you were someone else because they were mind-boggling short-sighted. It only made since if you needed a two way draw.
10 Apr 21 UTC There definitely is a perception difference in this game and a lot of information we both haven't processed and presumptions we are making so I'm going to assume the best. Good luck.
10 Apr 21 UTC I'll let both my two games speak for themselves.
10 Apr 21 UTC By the way I sacrificed England when I thought you were giving me Trieste. Same turn. I was building my third fleet and army Venice and Army Tuscany secures the line.
10 Apr 21 UTC I think you should reread that last statement of yours. The reason I let you into Tri and then kicked you back out was that you could replace that army with the fleet you need and put it in Tuscany, which, as you said, secures the line. You don't need to keep Tri for your plan to work. You do, of course, need to actually put the fleet on the board.
10 Apr 21 UTC That's true, but we needed to trust you. Which we didn't. The only way we could hold the line in that scenario is to have you in Pie and me in Tuscany with Venice unoccupied.

We had no idea who you were and for a big part of the game we needed 5 centers to make the finals. We couldn't understand why you would care about one center unless you needed it.
10 Apr 21 UTC We interpreted your fleet builds and movements as going for a solo and two way draw. The early play of not working with us reinforced everything in our mind. Are you trying to say you weren't going for a solo or two way draw at any point in the last 7 years? Because if you were...I played that game exactly right.
10 Apr 21 UTC Italy - your take on F1905 doesn't really fit the strategic situation and how it changed (twice). What was about to happen in F1905 was that you were about to lose the Ionian, because you insisted upon having the wrong army/fleet composition by building that third army in 1902. If you had a third fleet, then of course I wanted to work with you, as I had the entire game. But by building a third army, the only way you could fight Turkey was to find a 6th center, and by putting an army in Albania, that could only come through me. So you were going to lose the Ionian, and following that your position was going to collapse.

With that in mind, I had the choice between working with T, taking Tri and Ven but letting Turkey grow to the point that he was permanently on the map, and looking for calm, 3-way draw or attacking T and fighting what was likely a drawn war, while eventually Germany would come crashing through. So I preferred the RT and wanted to run that into the endgame.

Two things happened that I didn't expect after I took Tri. The first was that, as seems to be common, you chose an army where you needed a fleet, because the army looked immediately marginally better even though when you look ahead by more than one turn, it's clear that anything other than a fleet makes you irrelevant. Which is pretty much what happened -- as you can see, neither Turkey nor I really put much of a priority on dealing with Italy over the next few years. But to the extent that you were capable of allying with one of us, Turkey was the only possible ally. And if well executed, a good IT alliance should push me back several centers.

The other was that Turkey shifted forces east, which I didn't anticipate. For what it's worth, my intention in moving to BLA was not to stab Turkey (I'd have done so with more units), but rather to swap the fleet in Rum for an army, then leave the fleet in Sev as a blocker from building an additional fleet. Had Italy built a second fleet, then yes, I'd absolutely have stabbed Turkey at that moment. It would give me a shot at a solo if everything breaks right. But once he didn't, stabbing Turkey was a play which exchanged an easy 3-way draw for an uncomfortable 3-way draw, and one in which a good ally in T was the one cut out. I also hoped that by not building a fleet in Sev, and by having taken Tri, I'd earn at least a turn of leeway from Turkey and that he might react to my being in BLA in the fall, but not do so preemptively.

However, I was wrong about that last bit. Turkey pulled forces back immediately, in response to your third army, I suspect. He can do the same calculation and recognize that a well-run IT alliance can push me back, and presumably preferred that over an RT that would likely steer the game to a 3-way draw. [I'd be interested to hear Turkey's thoughts on this and see if that's the right explanation] So we ended up with a war that I didn't really want and one that ultimately cost Turkey even more than it cost me, but could easily have gone the other way if a couple of guesses had flipped - Turkey got unlucky in a couple of key spots.

If I could have found a better way to communicate it to Turkey in S06, I wanted a nice, simple 3-way draw. Which, by that point, our team already felt was sufficient to make the next round, so there was no reason for me to complicate things.
10 Apr 21 UTC Russia: I now understand why you took TRI in 1914. Why did you take it in 1917?
10 Apr 21 UTC What? You have two armies on Trieste in Spring 1903 and you want me to leave it undefended? It’s mind-boggling that you think taking Serbia in Spring 1903 after I had supported multiple of your units is wanting to work with me. You never actually ordered a support into a single center and just grabbed whatever you could. A 3rd army is normal in a wintergreen alliance. Now I get you’d like to setup to own the entire Balkans but you were trying to create me as a junior partner who had already supported you towards Bulgaria and into Venice or Budapest in Fall 1902.

My choice after you took Trieste 1905 was that Turkey was going to get all of me before you did. Did you really think I was going to leave one unit to you? I think there’s an inability to put yourself in the shoes of the person that is being attacked.
10 Apr 21 UTC Turkey sent all his units back when you build in Sev...and it was the right move because you moved on him that turn. This is twilight zone where you are ascribing benevolent thoughts on the same turn you attack.
10 Apr 21 UTC In 1903, I was pretty worried about the wintergreen developing. Specifically, Italy taking GRE in Autumn would have put it nicely on track. I was glad when neither of you saw things that way.
10 Apr 21 UTC (Though now I look more into the tactics, taking GRE was never really on the cards - too many risks for Italy especially.)
10 Apr 21 UTC Last 7 years? I suppose there was a point. For one turn in 1913, I thought there might be a window for me to take a thin shot at a solo. A 2-way draw was always 100% impossible. Why? Well, I hate to keep coming back to this point, but as it keeps being the answer to your query, there is a difference between armies and fleets. In 1913, I had one fleet in the south and the ability to build no more than one per turn. This means that there is no chance that I can ever take and hold Tunis in a game which ends in 1920. So the thin chance I have at a better result lies not in expanding through Italy, but in getting far enough in Scandinavia to take multiple centers. That window closed the same turn it opened, when Germany was alert enough to the danger to build F Ber in a position where he might well have decided that throwing fleets south was the priority instead for his own solo shot (he has an even longer delay between building a new fleet and bringing it to bear around Tun).

So, I thought in F13 that there was a chance Germany and I would essentially tacitly agree to give each other solo shots and see who got there first. As soon as he built F Ber, there was no more chance at a solo. The idea of a 2-way draw is laughable, because the only center I can exchange for Tun in a stalemate line is Ber, and Germany never needs to give me any sniff at taking it.

By the way, my lack of a desire for a smaller draw is pretty clearly indicated by the fact that I had my draw flag set. If I were unwilling to accept a draw, my draw flag would not have been set.
10 Apr 21 UTC Germany - I took Tri in 1917 because when Italy made choices like building in F Nap and several similar decisions, it was clear that he was trying to push the envelope of being anti-Russia to the maximum extent possible while still managing to hold the draw, and was perfectly happy to run the risk of miscalculating if we failed to coordinate.

As I didn't particularly care whether I got the points from the game, I decided to respond in kind, and was perfectly happy to run the risk of miscalculating and giving up a solo if we failed to coordinate. Had the game continued, I would have added one additional provocation, forcing my fleet into Venice, since Italy also doesn't need that army anymore now that mine are holding the line.

If that caused Italy to give up the solo, well, so be it. I suspect that might well have been the result, which is why I'd have liked to see the game continue for a turn or two and find out. But if he had taken that army off the board, I can't reduce him any further, and it would have ended in a 3-way draw.

Italy - should I ask what the result would have been if I took Ven with the fleet while continuing to hold the stalemate line? :)
10 Apr 21 UTC I was going to disband the army since you were in position to take over.
10 Apr 21 UTC But we were definitely going to let Germany solo if we were not going to be able to be in the draw.
10 Apr 21 UTC I was always angling for a 3 way draw. Every move was centered around trying to be in it and make it happen.
10 Apr 21 UTC Good to hear I didn't actually throw away a solo by voting draw there.

And thank you both for your thoughts. It is always interesting to hear how the game looked from other perspectives.
10 Apr 21 UTC I left England also because we could setup the line and I didn't trust you in the Ionian with me extended and it looked like you were giving me Trieste to setup the line worry free though we thought you might take Trieste back because you were the Brazil team.
10 Apr 21 UTC I think that if this game hadn't had an end date (and if we hadn't kind of wanted to get on with the tournament) I would have ceded Berlin at some point, to stoke Russian ambitions for a 2wd, which could either end up as a draw or with me soloing.
10 Apr 21 UTC Yeah, I was worried you'd just withdraw all your fleets in the south and leave me hanging. That also had to do with me dislodging Ionian.
10 Apr 21 UTC Trying to beat the countdown. I think the thing with gunboat and this tournament meta is there are a lot of scenarios people have to consider because there isn't communication so you just go off the moves and educated guesses. Anyway, we got the result we needed.
12 Apr 21 UTC Congrats to CSteinhardt, teccles, and umble for making the finals!

Some quick thoughts, although I lack the time for a detailed analysis atm, alas (honestly a big issue for me throughout this whole game)

To answer Russia's query on S1906, I actually wanted to continue the RT. I didn't find Italy particularly easy to coordinate with, and didn't trust they'd go for an IT, especially given that I still wanted to take Tunis. Rather, I had been looking at my eastern flank for the past few years before, and worried that Russia would decide to take advantage of the lack of defense. Paranoid? Perhaps. But I didn't think I could risk it. If Russia had stabbed, and I had done nothing, I'd've been pretty much done-for. If they hadn't, I figured it was overdue that I had something in place to defend Black, so bouncing over Black would probably be enough to salvage things.
Following that, I was just playing defensively. I didn't feel I could make the first move in reducing tensions, since doing so would have allowed Russia too many openings.
Unfortunately, in the years that followed, I made some exceptionally bad decisions due to poor planning on my part. Losing Ser and Gre was one big one that should have been really easily avoided. Not blocking Armenia in S11 was the one that sealed the deal, though. Funnily (in a sad way), I had actually intended on changing Black to cover Arm, since it wasn't actually needed on Rum-Bul, but I had a persistent issue with finding the time to do proper analyses of moves and meeting the game deadlines—I was actually the one who NMRed the most in both GB games, due to my lack of time to devote to it—and I think that showed in my play. And for those delays, making this game take even longer than necessary, you have my apologies.

If you folks have any specific questions for me, I'm happy to answer, but otherwise, I look forward to seeing you in the finals!

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

Germany
teccles (1753 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
17 supply-centers, 15 units
Russia
CSteinhardt (9380 D (B))
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
13 supply-centers, 12 units
Italy
umbletheheep (620 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
4 supply-centers, 4 units
England
90kicvesb (3974 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
France
TestSubjector (643 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
Austria
curupira (3491 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
Turkey
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
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