Finished: 01 AM Tue 17 Nov 20 UTC
FAIR Bot Game 1
1 day /phase
Pot: 35 D - Spring, 1912, Finished
Classic, No messaging, Anonymous players, Unranked, Hidden draw votes
1 excused missed turn
Game drawn
15 Oct 20 UTC Autumn, 1901: GameMaster: Game was extended due to at least 1 member failing to enter orders and having an excused missed turn available. This has un-readied all orders.
22 Oct 20 UTC Spring, 1903: GameMaster: Game was extended due to at least 1 member failing to enter orders and having an excused missed turn available. This has un-readied all orders.
31 Oct 20 UTC Autumn, 1905: GameMaster: Game was extended due to at least 1 member failing to enter orders and having an excused missed turn available. This has un-readied all orders.
05 Nov 20 UTC Autumn, 1907: GameMaster: Game was extended due to at least 1 member failing to enter orders and having an excused missed turn available. This has un-readied all orders.
12 Nov 20 UTC Autumn, 1909: GameMaster: Game was extended due to at least 1 member failing to enter orders and having an excused missed turn available. This has un-readied all orders.
16 Nov 20 UTC GG
16 Nov 20 UTC gg all.
16 Nov 20 UTC Gg
16 Nov 20 UTC Glad I could come in to stop what would have likely been a solo with old France just support holding in English Channel and Irish Sea.
16 Nov 20 UTC Gg. Turkey really let Russia roll through them, which also let Russia take advantage of Italy's impatient stab on Austria. I was gonna try to stop Russia from the North in 03, but then England stabbed me, and that kinda rebalanced the West, allowing Russia to clean up the East. Thankfully England and France were sensible in forming the stalemate line at the end, but I wonder how the game would have changed if England had continued its advance on France and let me fight Russia.
16 Nov 20 UTC GGs and yes big thank you to old France for NMRing and getting out of the way.

Ah yeah @Germany, I stabbed you (although, idk, wasn't super clear if you were my ally) in S03 because you built a third fleet. Did you build that fleet in an attempt to disguise your intentions to go after Russia?

And with taking MAO instead of BRE failing miserably, and France in good position to attack me, I figured that you would likely swap to an F/G since you might even get more centers from me than France, and you had fleet superiority.

Then Turkey blindly trusted Russia, Russia rightly crushed them, and that's basically why I ended up in the draw.
16 Nov 20 UTC I figured the fleet build was what tipped it in that direction. The fleet build was probably a mistake, but there were several reasons that I took into consideration for that build. I thought that since F Berlin takes over a year to mobilize into your waters, you wouldn't stab the one person you weren't at war with until you saw what I was going to do with it. I was expecting the Norway and North Sea moves, it was the Belgium move and the retraction from Irish Sea that had me spinning.
Most of the reasons I built the fleet involved me expecting a stab or some sort of fight from you during the course of the game and wanting to be prepared, but I think it was a self fulfilling prophecy. Im not terribly experienced in gunboat, particularly the posturing part of gunboat, so still learning what effects these kinds of decisions have. If I built an army there, you think you would have continued the French attack, or would you have seen an even easier path against me?
16 Nov 20 UTC I would have continued the French attack if you had built an army. But I should also rewind. I was a bit spooked when you supported yourself into Denmark in A02. I convoyed my army out of Norway because I expected Sweden and Baltic to bounce in Denmark in the fall, which meant my army would do nothing for at least a year if not more if you decided that you wanted StP for yourself. Covering Denmark told me that you probably weren't 100% dedicated to an all-out E/G.

Let me explain my thought process even more. I figured that you saw that France was too strong for me to ignore, and so I was 100% going to fight France (unless they tried to ally me or the board state changed or w/e). Fighting you at the same time would be folly, as you correctly pointed it. So in my mind, I was at your mercy. If you allied with me, all would be good. But if I let you reposition to attack me, I would lose any war on equal footing.

So I thought that you knew that I had to fight France, but you covered Denmark, which to me meant that you either didn't trust me (and then I couldn't rely on you for the current 100% E/G best friends until France is dead gunboat meta alliance) or you were planning to turn around and attack me, since Russia basically rolled over in the north. The fleet in Berlin stoked my fears of an F/G forming.

If you had built an army instead, I would have continued working with you. But there's more that influenced this. Russia's build was (correctly) A SEV, which indicated a stab on Turkey. G/R can be very strong in gunboat (imo) and without an army to convoy into Livonia (BAL moved to DEN *and* the F BER build), I suspected that the two of you would see that G/R was going to be very strong this game. And it was! Until Russia got supercharged and was ready to attempt the solo. But yeah, benevolent neglect is really powerful in the G/R imo, especially since Russia is desperate for friends in gunboat.

Finally, like I mentioned earlier, if an F/G really did form, the only way that I was going to be able to survive was if I attacked first. I looked at the positioning and while I could have made a decent chance at taking Brest in 1903, I don't think it was guaranteed? And if you interfered by tapping Picardy or something, I was going to be in deep shit.

So I opted for what you saw me do. Covering Norway (and hoping to bounce you), which would have kept me in ENG (in order to keep France out of ENG, because I expected them to cut ENG with MAO). Moving to WAL was to offer the E/F to France. And to be honest...I expected Picardy to bounce, with either you or the French army leaving Ruhr. Then I was planning for France to pop it in the fall, I would rebuild it as a fleet, and then I play the waiting game while the south resolves in record time. I was already planning delay tactics to make it into a draw.

Then my fall moves are just predicting that you would attempt to cut NTH and looking ahead to see that I could take Sweden in A04 if I convoyed the army back up there and stayed in possession of NTH. This may have been a bad plan, as France probably should have supported themselves into IRI in S04, which would have forced me to at least consider using NTH to cover LON while WAL covered LVP, or give up one of my home centers to France.

But really it didn't matter because Russia determined the rest of the game :| I'm also happy to break down things even more in dms or discord or w/e. I'm not an expert at gunboat, but I'm working on it :P
16 Nov 20 UTC ------------
@TheFlyingBoat, you're good at gunboat, what do you think of that A02/S03 sequence? Was I too paranoid/hedgehog?
16 Nov 20 UTC @pyxxy

I think your reaction to the third fleet was the correct one. If the third fleet is dropped the E/G becomes incredibly unstable in full press, but could still survive. In gunboat I think 95+% of the time it is dead. I can't think of a single gunboat game off the top of my head that I've played where Germany built three fleets and the E/G continued.

In addition to thinking your hedgehog strategy is probably the right one, I like the moves you used to make it happen, especially IRI-Wal and taking Belgium to convoy it out to create pressure in Scandinavia. A lot of players may send IRI-ENG instead, accidentally leaving the backdoor open to France to take Liverpool as the move to the Channel seems like an obvious backfill. Belgium was good insofar as it either stalls resolution of the West by potentially making Germany waste a turn getting into Burgundy or gets you into Belgium, thus creating a whole new set of offensive possibilities

As a whole I think your 1903 play was sound. As England you're simply not in a position to tolerate a three fleet Germany, especially not on four centers.

Happy to dig into it further if you have any further questions or hypotheticals about that scenario.
16 Nov 20 UTC My A02 moves definitely should have been a bounce in Denmark. I remember looking back on those moves kicking myself there.
23 Nov 20 UTC Hey sorry I'm late to the party. I assume Russia is the bot?

Kind of a disappointing game for me, I figured after some mutual support holds in the early game, Italy and I would fight against the coming juggernaut, and I wasn't really in a position to prevent Italy from stabbing if he wanted to.

Russia played very aggressively, I was kinda hoping he would support me, for example in Fall 1903 I think it's reasonable for Russia to have Vienna support Trieste while Galicia moves to Budapest. I feel a human player would understand that, in that spot, I'm just pissed at Italy and I don't really care about defending my centers. But probably most human players would still just take budapest? Not sure.
24 Nov 20 UTC Yes, I was the bot.
24 Nov 20 UTC How can the bot talk?
24 Nov 20 UTC GPT-3
24 Nov 20 UTC Haha no I'm just the developer keeping an eye on the account.
24 Nov 20 UTC That’s what skynet would say.

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

fairplay (1538 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
14 supply-centers, 14 units
pyxxy (271 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
7 supply-centers, 6 units
TheFlyingBoat (1282 D)
Drawn. Bet: 0 D, won: D
7 supply-centers, 7 units
Squigs44 (273 D Mod)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
6 supply-centers, 6 units
lfischl (121 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
basvanopheusden (2176 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
amonkeyperson (100 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
Civil Disorders
Arminio (100 D)France (Autumn, 1907) with 5 centres.
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