Yep. Historically hot water temperatures have nothing to do with doubling the incidence of major hurricanes. Nope!

Gotta love the scientifically illiterate morons who don't grasp the relationship between heat and storm strength. I'm sure it is just chance that we are getting all these massive storms and unprecedented wildfires, yep. Funny how scientists said this would happen thirty years ago, and now that it is there is a rush to declare that the scientists are wrong because they correctly predicted what would happen

That's logic only a conservative could love

@Ogion
Hot water isn't the only thing, wind shear around Maria is 0-3 knots, nothing. Usually Wind Shear limits hurricanes but this Atlantic season has not had a lot.

Tropical Depression Lee was once modeled to be exactly like Irma and be a strong hurricane east of the Antilles but wind shear destroyed it. You need 6 things for a hurricane to form, warm water is just one of them.

Hurricane Seasons go up and down, 2013-2015 was below average seasons, 2010-2012 were active.

Funny how some loudmouthed know it all punk spends all his time on a message board instead of actually doing something about what he preaches.

Probably cause in the real world his arrogant narrow minded views get him nowhere.

wow KB - you just described yourself quite accurately there. I haven't read one reasonable post from you yet. and you show no respect for posts of others.

@Zach

i think @Ogion muted me, so if you could repost this for me that'd be great.



https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter14_FINAL.pdf

this is the IPCC.

this is the most scientifically prestigious prediction on tropical storms and tropical cyclones available to us currently.

on page 1250, they have graphs showing 4 things, as a prediction of change from 2000-2019, to 2081-2100

1. All TC frequency
2. Cat 4-5 TC frequency
3. Lifetime Max. intensity
4. Precipitation rate.

1. most predict slight decrease in TC frequency
2. most predict slight increase in CAT 4-5 TC frequency
3. most predict slight increase in LMI
4. most predict slight increase in Precipitation Rate


so @Ogion the current Cat 4-5 TC rate is expected to increase about 50% in the next 80-100 years for the north atlantic. globally, there is insufficient data to support this for all oceans, and also the modern trend line

the total frequency of TCs is expected to drop however. please make note of that.

remember, page 1250 of

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter14_FINAL.pdf

this is science, not internet ranting

their statement on cyclones on 1220 was as follows:

"Based on process understanding and agreement in 21st century projections, it is likely that the global frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and precipitation rates. The future influence of climate change on tropical cyclones is likely to vary by region, but the specific characteristics of the changes are not yet well quantified and there is low confidence in region-specific projections of frequency and intensity"


the projections with current data are low confidence, and with past data being less precise and well documented, there's even less of an observable trend line currently.


stop bastardizing science @Ogion

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter14_FINAL.pdf

this is the IPCC.

this is the most scientifically prestigious prediction on tropical storms and tropical cyclones available to us currently.

on page 1250, they have graphs showing 4 things, as a prediction of change from 2000-2019, to 2081-2100

1. All TC frequency
2. Cat 4-5 TC frequency
3. Lifetime Max. intensity
4. Precipitation rate.

1. most predict slight decrease in TC frequency
2. most predict slight increase in CAT 4-5 TC frequency
3. most predict slight increase in LMI
4. most predict slight increase in Precipitation Rate


so @Ogion the current Cat 4-5 TC rate is expected to increase about 50% in the next 80-100 years for the north atlantic. globally, there is insufficient data to support this for all oceans, and also the modern trend line

the total frequency of TCs is expected to drop however. please make note of that.

remember, page 1250 of

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter14_FINAL.pdf

this is science, not internet ranting

their statement on cyclones on 1220 was as follows:

"Based on process understanding and agreement in 21st century projections, it is likely that the global frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and precipitation rates. The future influence of climate change on tropical cyclones is likely to vary by region, but the specific characteristics of the changes are not yet well quantified and there is low confidence in region-specific projections of frequency and intensity"


the projections with current data are low confidence, and with past data being less precise and well documented, there's even less of an observable trend line currently.


stop bastardizing science @Ogion

love you Zach

Actually, the IPCC represents the minimum consensus prediction, but that's just a quibble. I'm glad you're at least citing to the AR5. That's a good start.

I'll point out that increasing intensity will increase the number of hurricanes specifically, because of how hurricanes are defined (as a subset of the more powerful cyclones. Often you'll have around a dozen named storms, of which around half are hurricanes, and a quarter major hurricanes. You'll have a bunch of unnamed depressions. So, if you increase intensity, you'll increase the number in those upper classes of cyclones.

"The available modelling studies that are capable of producing very strong cyclones typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones and it is more likely than not that this increase will be larger than 10% in some basins (Emanuel et al., 2008; Bender et al., 2010; Knutson et al., 2010, 2013; Yamada et al., 2010; Murakami et al., 2012)."

Note that some models predict up to a 70% increase in storm frequency, although the results aren't robust across models. Nevertheless, bear in mind that hurricanes are a class of the strongest cyclones, so that increase in intensity would likely parallel a greater proportion of depressions becoming storms, and storms becoming hurricanes. Furthermore, the increase in categories 3, 4, and 5. is fully consistent with that prediction of increased intensity. Put another way, if you increase the windspeed of the most powerful storms (say 55 knots and up) by 10-20%, you get a hurricane. See how that works?

And without getting into details, trendlines are only one, and not necessarily the best, approach to detecting trends. For example, the distribution of interevent intervals is a good way to detect departures from randomness. I haven't run the stats, but i'd not be at all surprised if the distribution of inter high storm year intervals in the last twenty five years were different from the preceding 100. Might not be significant, but certainly would be suggestive.

(that's a whole other stats lesson that would take more time than I have)

You should check out your own data.
1) For example, the prediction for the atlantic is for a whopping increase in the frequency of Cat 4 and 5 storms.
2) that's for 2080-100 compared to 2000-2019. That says nothing about 2000-2020 compared to 1880-1980 or even to the 1950-1970 period. In other words, you're citing predictions not really related to the data I posted about.

ceteris paribus, heat matters. Not always, but it can and will some proportion of the time.

@Ogion

1. the data ALSO shows MASSIVE variability for the north atlantic, anywhere from 100% decrease to 200% increase with a predicted 50% increase. the scientists are saying that precision is not fully available with these models

2. i know

and neither do YOU. so stop making empirical statements... which was MY point all along. you spouting stuff off as empirical fact (especially in the Irma thread) has been proven to be unsubstantiated.

stop making empirical statements, and i have no problem with the heart of what you're saying here

and what do you mean "You should check out your own data."???

I SAID THAT IN THE FIRST POST!!!

"so @Ogion the current Cat 4-5 TC rate is expected to increase about 50% in the next 80-100 years for the north atlantic. globally, there is insufficient data to support this for all oceans, and also the modern trend line"

so maybe you should READ the entire post first

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-maria-steering-interaction-jose

Fujiwara effect is crazy

Could be ok, especially the "Maria gets flung out to sea" part

BR - wrong on every level.

I've shown respect for many level headed, reasonable, open minded posts and never have claimed to be an expert on anything (well maybe baseball lol)

Sorry my opinions conflict with narrow minded, radical opinions (apparently yours as well) and those who are unable to read and comprehend anything outside their narrow viewpoint.

Lol KB you are too funny man

Meanwhile, Maria is hitting USVI with 200 mph winds and 50 foot waves.

I would diplomatically suggest to lovable Bladerunners that if he has never "read any reasonable post from Kansas Boyd" then perhaps the fault lies with lovable Bladerunners, and he should read more ( and put greater effort into understanding what he reads ). I cite the posts by Kansas Boyd in the Baseball thread as clear and irrefutable evidence that KB is quite capable of making "reasonable contributions" in a Forum thread.
Imho, in the "department of nonsensical rants" there are other genuine frontrunners such as Condescension and ND who in comparison to KB, make him look like a workmanlike plodder, admittedly constrained by his ideological blinkers.

Meanwhile cat 3 storms hit Texas and Florida and we get disaster declarations, while Puerto Rico gets only an emergency declared with a stronger storm (I believe). I guess Bo is right that the ignoramus view prevails in America. No doubt if a disaster strikes California we will be entirely on our own since Billy Bob knows California is unmurkin