honestly

If we forget the hypothesis of newbie :

* Austria attacking Germany in 1901 means there is some metagaming around Austria certainly with Russia and Italy or that Austria is just stupid

* Germany can attack Austria (or expect to bounce with Italy in Tyrol, why not ?) in case of a Western triple but it requires a high trust in France.

"Under any circumstances" will inevitably include those situations when Austria is just a complete numpty or an arse.

The same applies equally to Germany.

There is a great article online by Richard Sharp, an experienced Diplomacy player, which talks about startegy and tactics for Germany. What I am about to say is basically a highlight of that article.

Assuming you are playing with a group of competent, wise, and skillful players, the strategies and tactics for the game are pretty much universal: Germany and Austria-Hungary should never fight, especially at the beginning of the game. In fact, the bond between Germany and Austria-Hungary is so strong, that Germany must ensure that Austria-Hungary is always safe. That bond is called the "Anschluss." To summarize, the best investment Germany can make in the game is an investment in the safety and well-being of Austria-Hungary.

You know, I've always thought it funny that when Richard Sharp wrote that, he had played far fewer games of Diplomacy than probably any of us.

Moving Mun to Boh can be done to confuse and then support Austria to gal on the fall.

As to fewer games. We played postal dip in many zines, and we traveled the world for conventions. So not so few games.