@Vallk
Thanks for your comments and let me clarify, this is only a 4 year forecast.
Russia's at this interesting point, where they definitely want a foothold in the middle east, but by propping up Assad and trying to add to his legitimacy, they're also creating an effective barrier for further progression by them. They export oil, and there is a supply market in the middle east, but for Russia it's always been more than that. They want a warm water port, and they've been moving every which way towards the black sea, but now they're so close to the Red Sea, there will be some interesting reconsiderations unfolding. Russia has poked and prodded Obama and he hasn't responded with strength, so Putin has grown in confidence, and now Trump is in the presidency, the EU is looking unstable economically and politically... the question is will it happen in the next 4 years. Perhaps my perception of time is off, (perhaps it's because my brother is deployed right now and i'm being optimistic), but I don't think we'll see any moves by major geopolitical power until this terrorism that has spawned from cultures within the middle east goes docile again.
Meanwhile ISIS is on their last stand in Mosul, and we should be hearing more about that in the upcoming weeks, but they're financial backing is deteriorating, so I don't consider them nearly as prominent of a threat to the region.
- One important side note here, al-Qaeda made a big statement with 9/11, hiding among the political regimes of the time. ISIS won't have a political regime to cover for it, BUT this does not make splinter cell groups any less likely to plan and execute terrorist attacks abroad.
Finally China: they're expertise is not in invasion, and that is important to keep in mind form a purely military perspective. China is weaker in the Pacific than we are, and Japan and South Korea won't exactly allow warships into those waters (though North Korea could prove an interesting proponent or even catalyst of conflicts). China's government already has vast INTERNAL investment, as they're still a command economy. One of the things war does for a country is (if it's mostly a free market) it forces industries to work for the state, and while domestic GDP might decrease and living conditions not improve, there is generally a large boost given to the nation's military potential
(fun fact the Great Depression was ended pre-USA involvement in WWII, because America was seen as the safest place on earth, which is immense for economic reasons. Once we got in, our domestic GPD dropped and people at home were fearing another slip (which was foolish as there were plenty of good investing opportunities, and people could care less about national debt [kind of like today], and only once the state-run industries were given back to the people, did we see our giant boom in the 50-70 era)
The reason why China would get no such boost is obvious; their industries are ALREADY state run, AND their industries are failing. Private industries in China aren't doing too well either, but manufacturing is really keeping them afloat on all fronts. to enlist millions of soldiers and put them in war-conditions with complete war-time resources, they'd have to MASSIVELY cut back on social benefits, and since their populous is already growing in discontent with the government, that wouldn't end well.
the truth is, if Trump hurts them with Tariffs, it'll be bad economically for the USA, and it might cause a collapse in China. China has been selling off our debt, we owe JAPAN more!
http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
Clearly two factors are at work, their trust in the dollar, and the amount of capital they need. Given that the dollar has been doing pretty well relative to other currencies recently, China is trying to stir up their economy, and it isn't working! They're claiming they're growth rate is right in their projected 6.5-7% range but not as many investors are trusting them outside of manufacturing, and it's GDP per capita has shown signs of decline. Plus, since we know they're liquidating cash, they should be above the current rates they're projecting, but it's not even that!
It's important to remember though, if China goes down, this could mean two things for the US:
Scenario 1, demand skyrockets, and countries such as Mexico start stepping up internal investment and taking on debt temporarily to increase manufacturing production, while the USA is still undergoing bad tariffs, and our own personal internal investment won't be high enough
Scenario 2, demand skyrockets, but Trump allows our free market to take over and offers a safe place to bring in new jobs along with his own personal infrastructure investing.
Frankly I can only see scenario 1 happening, and also I'm not sure Trump would be the reason why China's economy would collapse. If they do fall apart, it's going to be from their own accord by screwing with the economy and populous and riding the back of technological innovation for too long (not that technological innovation is bad, but the it's over prospected.... that causes problems)