Here is my EOG, for everyone who still remembers what happened this game.
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This is going to be even longer than basva’s EOG - hope y’all like reading!
Pre-game/ Spring 1901:
I draw Italy, which I think by now I have made known to most everyone that is my least favourite country to play. I’m coming off two pretty bad defeats as Italy in the last six months or so, and one decent draw. Italy is also (now) something like 75% of my eliminations in FP games in the last 9 months or so. But I am an optimist, and I’m also feeling a little adventurous this game, so never mind any of that.
At the start of the game, my important conversations are with France, Austria, Turkey, and Russia. France puts forward a view that it makes sense for Italy and France to keep out each other’s hair early on, and I actually completely agree with this on the merits, so I quickly tell France that I share his desire for peace. I mean it when I say it, too. This happens before I really come to an agreement with Austria or Turkey on anything, so at the time, it isn't a lie, although I do break the agreement.
Next up, Turkey. I have never had much success with an IT alliance, but Turkey appears interested and I really believe him, so my fullest intention in 1901 is to shift into an IT alliance at the earliest opportunity. Suffice it to say, this opportunity never comes. I try to convince Austria to sign up for a key lepanto, but he’s smart enough not to agree. Maybe he could tell I was going to stab him in 1902 or 1903 if I agreed, who knows.
I’m also having a pretty good conversation with Russia about a midgame alliance, and it seems prudent to take this seriously. Wusti and I have literally never had a game where we could get on the same page when it mattered, and now we’re 0 for 3 (depending on how you count our 5WD in the last GR challenge), so I dunno. ssorenn and I also have a bad track record now. Anyway, Russia is a bit tight-lipped, but he seems to be very unhappy with the prospect of working with either Turkey or Austria, so I count as a plus.
Crucially, my desire not to play a typical AI means I agree not to open with a lepanto, and that’s really all Russia and Turkey are looking for from me. I’m prepared to say yes to any Austrian plan that is consistent with that, and the suggestion to move to Piedmont seems harmless enough. It doesn’t help that I’m still sore from a brutal mid-game attack by France when I was Italy in a recent ODC game, but maybe my problem is I’m always fighting the last war when I draw Italy. I’m happy with this opening, anyway, because it means I weaken a big mid-game threat (France) and keep open the option of allying with Austria, Turkey, and Russia after the spring moves.
Austria’s proposal is a blue water lepanto, which is almost immaterial. My conversation with him lead me to believe he really isn’t actually sure what that opening entails, but I don’t much care. I’m just happy to have an excuse not to open to Apulia or plan to convoy to Tunis for a change, so I deliberately put discussion of executing the blue water move off until next phase.
Fall 1901:
France is obviously unhappy I’ve moved to Piedmont, but he doesn’t take very harsh tone with me. He just gently reminds me that early wars between France and Italy are bad, which in my heart I know to be true. I am mostly thinking to myself, well, if I don’t get a build this turn, I will probably just let France have his peace. Apparently I do a really good job convincing France I’m not interested in fighting, because my move to Marseilles succeeds.
I’m not sure if I had some help from east here or not. I get a message from ssorenn (Turkey, but I’ve figured out it is ssorenn at this point, is press is unmistakable, not that it affects my play) presuming there’s no way I’d actually move Pied-Mar, and Austria is also assuming I will hold in Piedmont. I have a theory that sometimes certain moves are “in fashion,” and while this kind of second-level metagaming might not be advisable, I get this strong feeling that everyone thinks Piedmont Hold is the “better” move, and thus Pied-Mar is probably going to be unexpected. And I want builds. So that’s why I end up going for it. Austria, Russia, Turkey, and France are all quite surprised by my move to Marseilles.
I don’t usually play 24hr phase games because it’s tough to handle with my schedule, so I’m doing a good job of talking to Germany or England at this point. I would say I’ve tried but barely.
The last important element of stage-setting is builds. I get Austria to build a fleet, and the reason for that is that I am still planning on shifting into a mid-game alliance with Turkey or Russia, and I am fairly confident that a second fleet isn’t a game-ending threat to me, but it does marginally improve my security in the next year (by lowering the payoff from an Austrian stab) and it makes Austria easier to attack on land if we have him surrounded. The interesting part of the next couple years for me is the sequence of events that completely makes me abandon my plan to stab Austria shortly after this point.
1902:
My approach to my lucky campaign against France is basically unchanged from last year. I continue to say I’m only reluctantly attacking him because I couldn’t do a lepanto for diplomatic reasons, and it is hard to agree to make peace when I’ve nabbed Marseilles. I’m still ready to call a truce as soon as I stop making gains, and honestly, I’m looking for an excuse to do so because my earlier promise to R and T that I’d eventually attack Austria is looking harder and harder to uphold.
So I move defensively in the spring, ensuring that I don’t lose Marseilles, and then in the fall I go for the build in Spain. I am successful, again, I think, largely because I’ve managed to convince the others I’m not aggressively pursuing builds, when really that’s all I’m doing.
I have a dilemma in the east, meanwhile, which is that I have so many units in the west, I don’t really have a finger in the AR vs T fight that’s ongoing, and it looks like I won’t get any gains from that fight, either. The year ends with me still contributing nothing to the fight in the east, but picking up Spain.
Austria and I try, rather unsuccessfully, to convince Germany to play a traditional CPA with us. He seems really concerned about Russia, and looking at the board, I don’t understand that all. Russia’s got a lot to worry about and can’t afford Russia. Having seen TrPrado’s thougths on the game, I get where those concerns were coming from, and if I’d been working more closely with Russia, I would have asked him to talk to Germany a bit differently. Some German assistance against France would have made it possible for me to stab Austria fairly soon after this point.
The way this year plays out, it is greatly to Austria’s advantage and not to mine. Austria has had Russian help against Turkey, will have Italian help against Turkey, and has had some weird and pointless conflict between Russia and Germany weakening Russia and keeping Germany from getting stronger. It’s great for Austria and pretty mediocre for the rest of us, but I don’t have the influence I need with germany or England to get anything to change to improve things for me.
1903:
Austria and Russia have some sort of diplomatic falling out, and I guess Austria got too clever by half here. Germany comes back to the west, but he’s still unwilling to get builds and help me fight France. I am making boring moves against France and am pretty close to hitting a wall without help from anyone else in the west.
I have built a fleet in Naples, and I am awkwardly using it to cover Venice because it is pretty undefended and it seems sort of useless for me to send a fleet east or west at the moment.
I guess what does matter is that I do have one fleet in the East Med now, and I’m just using it to support Austria. Austria agrees to give me Trieste if I support him to Smyrna, instead of taking Smyrna. From my perspective, any gains I can make in the east are quite tenuous and hard to hold. Trieste is a fictitious gain, but owning and occupying it is better than anything else. I think, I’d used those two fleets to start working with Turkey or Russia right now, it would have gone better, but I had a hard time seeing a safe way to do that.
More importantly, Austria’s offer of Trieste convinced me that I had a long time before Austria would stab me, and Austria’s rush to eliminate Turkey is also nice. Keeping Turkey around would be a more typical strategy of making it harder for me to stop him from trying to solo later. I find it interesting that France later thought Austria was playing to have multiple small powers on the board because, from my perspective, Austria is quickly and methodically eliminating players, and hasn’t really made any big moves to cross the stalemate. He doesn’t seem to be setting up for a solo run at all, which is another factor in my decision to continue the alliance.
1904:
The seeds planted in 1903 continue to grow, unabated. I swap Portugal for Spain, get in the MAO, and Austria gives me Trieste. Austria wants me to work with France, and I have to give this a lot of thought. I know keeping France around is risky when I can probably push him to elimination, France and I are the de facto middle powers now that Russia and Turkey are both done for. But I’m over at least one part of the stalemate line, and the centers needed for a solo are unlikely but not impossible for me to own. I can see a very narrow path to a solo, which closes completely if I kill France. Probably getting too greedy here.
My other reason for keeping France alive is that I’m now genuinely very annoyed I’ve handed Germany a lot of builds on a silver platter, and he’s refused to make any move against France. So I figure I can at least entertain myself by killing off Germany. Probably playing too emotionally here.
1905:
I forget if this conversation happened in 1904 or 1905, but apparently England tells Austria he thinks I could be a solo threat. I don’t want anyone talking about this, and it is pretty far-fetched if we’re being realistic, so I play it down with Austria too. The only viable path for me to solo involves taking all of England’s home centers, as well as Belgium, Munich, Holland, and 1 or 2 more centers, which is quite unlikely but I’m still keeping hope alive.
No reason to make Austria suspicious, though, especially since my assessment is that his own solo would be most aided by maintaining our alliance for a while longer and trying to get really big (like 12+ centers) before stabbing me. Austria’s belief that I’m happy to play for the draw lets me get armies into Tyrolia and Bohemia, as well as Burgundy, which are valuable territories for gaining access to the centers I’ll need. My mistake is that I’m wrong about Austria’s thinking about his own solo chances.
I’ll add that, for probably 4 turns now, France and I have been working more amicably together, and I’m sort of hoping that I can wrap around France and continue to cooperate with France to make gains elsewhere before taking his centers. But in the meantime, I’m being honest with France, and I think he is starting to trust that I at least will not immediately attack him. Austria’s been an honest broker between the two of us, and I think if he had really been wanting to solo, he wouldn’t have worked up a situation where France and I trusted each other. An Austrian solo run right around now would have benefitted a lot from France massively distrusting me.
Austria’s press ends up getting a little fishy, and I decide a stab is imminent, so I start playing a bit more defensively around my home centers, but I still don’t have a lot of units there and there’s not much I can do when the time comes.
1906:
The stab comes this fall, and while I have a bit of luck in delaying Austria’s attack on Venice and Trieste, as well as carving out a fairly secure set of German home centers, my fleets are too far to save Naples. Austria suggested in his EOG that I should have taken Marseilles just hung out on that portion of the stalemate line - maybe that would have worked, but as I saw it, my ticket to the draw was that France seemed to trust me, and my read of France was the he didn’t believe in cutting draws just for the sake of cutting draws.
If I’m going to take an inventory of my mistakes, I think my biggest mistake right now is probably not that I left Kiel, or didn’t retreat to a more essential part of the stalemate line, or really anything tactical. It is that I didn’t make a big effort to convince Austria to resume our alliance. Perhaps I could have been successful in convincing Austria to play for a 2WD, or offering him Munich in exchange for keeping my home centers. A number of bargaining chips were in my hand, but I didn’t have the focus to really use them.
1907:
For the most part, this is an uninteresting year of setting up a stalemate line. We are about 1 turn away from having the stalemate line at the end, but Austria observes to me that the way I’ve moved makes me pretty vulnerable to being burned at both ends. I’m fully aware of this, and I’m hoping I haven’t read England wrong. It will turn out next year that I have. My backup plan is to offer England support in passing the stalemate line, but that’s a less valuable bargaining chip than the ones I didn’t use last year.
1908:
The second stab comes this fall, and it is pretty devastating, reducing me to 3 centers from 9. It could have been more devastating. I imagine, for reasons of benefitting France as much as possible, they choose to take 6 centers from me rather than the 7 that they could have. Doesn’t matter much.
Preemptively, there is probably marginally more I could have done to convince France not to go along with the inevitable proposal to cut me out, which Austria telegraphed to me last year. But I don’t know if anything could have been enough with England and Austria both having absolutely no reason not to want me out.
1909-1911:
With three centers left and no options, I offer to throw to both England and Austria. I hope that if there is enough chaos, distrust will be so great between Austria and England that a draw will be essential. England is initially interested, but ultimately doesn’t follow through on any of his vague promises or really say much to me at all. He even backs out before the first set of moves goes through where he could position to stab France and jump up for 15-16 centers in a single turn.
Austria has gone over his drama with England in 1910 already, so I’ll add that my guess is England was talking to Austria under the assumption that it would leak to me, and that the possibility of his run for a solo would get me to defect from Austria. I considered this possibility, and decide that, if it was true, England could bring about my elimination regardless, and if it was not true, then Austria was going to solo. My best outcome among those options was to defect from the throwing to Austria camp, a turn too late to have even an extremely tenuous spot in the draw.
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I’ve probably forgotten some important details, especially re: my press with Germany and Russia, but those are the broad strokes. I would say I had a decent strategy for the start of this game, but I let important parts of the board get away, and I didn’t make the right calls in how to respond to France and Turkey’s early weakness which laid the groundwork for me to be vulnerable to Austria later. I will say that I think Austria’s stab was mistimed - he was basically, and very predictably, trading one 3WD for a different 3WD in making that stab, and as the loser in that trade, I am obviously not a fan.
In his position, I would have tried to bring about a longer war between me and Turkey earlier on, or tried to cross the stalemate line in Germany, rather than encouraging me to do it, before making a run. Perhaps in my position, I should have played more proactively after Austria’s first stab, or I should have put more effort into executing the attack on Austria that I’d promised T and R earlier on. Or I should have just killed France when I had the chance, or at least taken him down to 2 centers. C’est la vie. I’ll just have to try to pick up another solo in ODC Round Two to recover the hit to my GR (I can dream, right?).