M53: Mafia 1 Redux

[foodcoats]

Where is Kalel?

I'm here. Just got back from seeing a live show of Critical Role.

I'm VT. Bunny knows this. Bunny has abandoned their normal rational reasons, and logical cases for hysterics. It is very unlike them.

I voted EMC because I thought they were scum... I switched to Bob for the same reason, but changed my mind about them later.

The team is Bunny + 1K + 1F

What about my reasoning that scum shouldn't have sacrificed EMC on D1 when they had at least 1 viable other wagon? If you are town (and you know it) then Bob's WHOLE WAGON was town. Not 1 scum could save EMC?

There is no way the scumteam is Kit, Fox and Bob, if that's what you're suggesting. The other three did not all bus emc D1. There's just no way I can believe that all three ended there.

[foodcoats]

I'm surprised Bunny is not in here foaming at the mouth about being lead wagon. Maybe he's letting the bus through to build stock for D5.

Why should I foam? I see Fox hunting. I see Bob being lazy. I even see you and flash here for once.

I am not seeing Fox hunting. He is making posts to look active. The summary was a lot of words but little analysis. After all that he just decided to fall back to his default vote from yesterday?

I tend to agree. I didn't like that Fox made a post about which forum threads are more active than this one. Seemed like gloating.

Fox could very well be the emc busser, over Bob.

[flash2015]

OK, Bunny is obviously not scum and I am wasting time staying there. As we need to consolidate, I am moving my vote. Kalel is probably scum so I will join that:

##VOTE Kalel

Though I would also be willing to hang Fox too.

[foodcoats]

I apologize in advance as this turned into a wall of text. But I think I got it.

I'm here. Just got back from seeing a live show of Critical Role.

I'm VT. Bunny knows this. Bunny has abandoned their normal rational reasons, and logical cases for hysterics. It is very unlike them.

I voted EMC because I thought they were scum... I switched to Bob for the same reason, but changed my mind about them later.

The team is Bunny + 1K + 1F

What about my reasoning that scum shouldn't have sacrificed EMC on D1 when they had at least 1 viable other wagon? If you are town (and you know it) then Bob's WHOLE WAGON was town. Not 1 scum could save EMC?

I am Town. Not 1 scum could join EMC on me? I think it's because they were already misplaced, and unavailable.

brainbomb created a three way tie between emc, Bob and yourself. Vecna broke it. It could very well be that none of the scum had the courage to break the tie and were hoping town would do it in a way favourable to scum. If both you and Bob are town, then there were good odds for scum that town would hammer home the mislynch and they didn't feel the need to move. There was a 66% chance the tie would be broken in favour of scum.

Which actually is a good explanation for D1 EOD and how emc got lynched despite multiple wagons. Scum just sat and crossed fingers.

That would mean, my Occam scenario holding, that the scumteam is probably two of Kalel, Kakarroto and flash, and one of Fox and Kit.

But if Bunny or Bob IS scum... meaning the wagons were SvSvT... and scum would've had to pile onto the only town wagon to make a save... then with the knowns we have, Kalel could be scum, on the town!Bob wagon. Bunny would also be scum, with one of Kitsune and Fox.

Except that Kalel was on that wagon at T-2 hours. emc only had 3 votes at that time. It's not like a big rush save. BUT HEY IT WAS KALEL WHO MADE IT 4-3 BOBvEMC. So scum!Kalel puts town!Bob ahead of emc.

And then Bob tied it and then Kit made it 5 for emc and then brain made it 6.

So in that case it's not likely to be scum!Kit who pushed emc to the forefront. So the busser on emc was Fox.

So the scumteam would be Kalel - who tried to make the Bob wagon happen - Fox - who was bussing emc - and Bunny - who was also bussing emc, but dropped off to damo - who as I have pointed out before was not even on Bunny's radar all D1 - with 13 minutes to go.

And okay now, if the above is wrong... if NEITHER Bunny nor Bob is scum... then there is still a 66% chance that Kalel is scum, because scum would be drawn from Kal, Kak and flash, along with Fox. That team would be Fox, Kalel, Kakarroto/flash.

And in that scenario, I think it is more likely to be Fox, Kalel, and FLASH, because Fox and flash are slinging hate at each other today. They have not done that previously as far as I recall. But they could now realize they need to bus and so Fox is slagging flash - "flash is lurky scum coming out now because they're going to win" - and flash is slagging fox - "Fox doesn't have an argument against me." I am just realizing they are not even having an interesting discussion, they are just slamming each other.

Does that make sense? I think that all makes. I think I fucking got'em. Two of them anyway.

Okay, all that said I think it is almost guaranteed Kalel is scum, in every scenario imaginable. They are not my biggest scum read but by POE they are in almost every possible team. Pretty much irrespective of anyone else being scum, Kalel fits in the team.

My assumptions though... I think that Kak is town. Like why would scum!Kak sit on Jamie D1 like that? And I think there was only one busser. If Fox or Bob is scum, does Kit come in and join the bus of emc and PUT HIM ON LEAD WAGON? I guess Fox and Bob COULD have screwed up and not found a way off emc once Kit and brain got on him. But overall I think I am right to make these assumptions.

I think it is Kalel, Fox, and one other.

##VOTE KalelChase

[BunnyGo]

Why should I foam? I see Fox hunting. I see Bob being lazy. I even see you and flash here for once.

I am not seeing Fox hunting. He is making posts to look active. The summary was a lot of words but little analysis. After all that he just decided to fall back to his default vote from yesterday?

I tend to agree. I didn't like that Fox made a post about which forum threads are more active than this one. Seemed like gloating.

Fox could very well be the emc busser, over Bob.

That is a good point.

[BunnyGo]

I apologize in advance as this turned into a wall of text. But I think I got it.

What about my reasoning that scum shouldn't have sacrificed EMC on D1 when they had at least 1 viable other wagon? If you are town (and you know it) then Bob's WHOLE WAGON was town. Not 1 scum could save EMC?

I am Town. Not 1 scum could join EMC on me? I think it's because they were already misplaced, and unavailable.

brainbomb created a three way tie between emc, Bob and yourself. Vecna broke it. It could very well be that none of the scum had the courage to break the tie and were hoping town would do it in a way favourable to scum. If both you and Bob are town, then there were good odds for scum that town would hammer home the mislynch and they didn't feel the need to move. There was a 66% chance the tie would be broken in favour of scum.

Which actually is a good explanation for D1 EOD and how emc got lynched despite multiple wagons. Scum just sat and crossed fingers.

That would mean, my Occam scenario holding, that the scumteam is probably two of Kalel, Kakarroto and flash, and one of Fox and Kit.

But if Bunny or Bob IS scum... meaning the wagons were SvSvT... and scum would've had to pile onto the only town wagon to make a save... then with the knowns we have, Kalel could be scum, on the town!Bob wagon. Bunny would also be scum, with one of Kitsune and Fox.

Except that Kalel was on that wagon at T-2 hours. emc only had 3 votes at that time. It's not like a big rush save. BUT HEY IT WAS KALEL WHO MADE IT 4-3 BOBvEMC. So scum!Kalel puts town!Bob ahead of emc.

And then Bob tied it and then Kit made it 5 for emc and then brain made it 6.

So in that case it's not likely to be scum!Kit who pushed emc to the forefront. So the busser on emc was Fox.

So the scumteam would be Kalel - who tried to make the Bob wagon happen - Fox - who was bussing emc - and Bunny - who was also bussing emc, but dropped off to damo - who as I have pointed out before was not even on Bunny's radar all D1 - with 13 minutes to go.

And okay now, if the above is wrong... if NEITHER Bunny nor Bob is scum... then there is still a 66% chance that Kalel is scum, because scum would be drawn from Kal, Kak and flash, along with Fox. That team would be Fox, Kalel, Kakarroto/flash.

And in that scenario, I think it is more likely to be Fox, Kalel, and FLASH, because Fox and flash are slinging hate at each other today. They have not done that previously as far as I recall. But they could now realize they need to bus and so Fox is slagging flash - "flash is lurky scum coming out now because they're going to win" - and flash is slagging fox - "Fox doesn't have an argument against me." I am just realizing they are not even having an interesting discussion, they are just slamming each other.

Does that make sense? I think that all makes. I think I fucking got'em. Two of them anyway.

Okay, all that said I think it is almost guaranteed Kalel is scum, in every scenario imaginable. They are not my biggest scum read but by POE they are in almost every possible team. Pretty much irrespective of anyone else being scum, Kalel fits in the team.

My assumptions though... I think that Kak is town. Like why would scum!Kak sit on Jamie D1 like that? And I think there was only one busser. If Fox or Bob is scum, does Kit come in and join the bus of emc and PUT HIM ON LEAD WAGON? I guess Fox and Bob COULD have screwed up and not found a way off emc once Kit and brain got on him. But overall I think I am right to make these assumptions.

I think it is Kalel, Fox, and one other.

##VOTE KalelChase

I’m at work so haven’t digested all of this. But it starts off solid (including analysis of the cases where Bob or I am scum)

[flash2015]

We haven't seen Kit in over a day. She laid down a vote on Kak and left. Who does that at MiLo (or Mylo)? That doesn't feel very towny. Isn't she in Australia? If she is town will she have time to interact before EOD (it is now 2:14am in Sydney).

[KalelChase]

If even 1 town is wrong at 5-3, we still lose (unless moron townie is off on a vanity wagon).

At least then it is a draw for a day...

OK, you are right. If one townie is wrong and we get a draw, then we get another day.

It's not possible to 'force a draw'... scum would just flip at the last second right?

[KalelChase]

Where is Kalel?

I'm here. Just got back from seeing a live show of Critical Role.

I'm VT. Bunny knows this. Bunny has abandoned their normal rational reasons, and logical cases for hysterics. It is very unlike them.

I voted EMC because I thought they were scum... I switched to Bob for the same reason, but changed my mind about them later.

The team is Bunny + 1K + 1F

What about my reasoning that scum shouldn't have sacrificed EMC on D1 when they had at least 1 viable other wagon? If you are town (and you know it) then Bob's WHOLE WAGON was town. Not 1 scum could save EMC?

Scum couldn't have jumped to you because your scum. I can't tell you why they didn't jump on Bob... because I'm not scum.

I can tell you that I thought Bob was scummy at the time and he turned me around later. Maybe I'm wrong and he is scum. The fact that the top three wagons on D1 were all scum is too much of a reach.

Note: I am not saying that all scum voted for EMC D1, but...
If the scum list is full of 'veterans' maybe with 4 goons and no reason to value any one scum over the others they decided that an EMC sacrifice (someone known to get modkilled before) was a fantastic investment. That scum could bring it up later (just like you're doing now).

I am caught up now and see the votes... this is a mislynch.

[foodcoats]

At least then it is a draw for a day...

OK, you are right. If one townie is wrong and we get a draw, then we get another day.

It's not possible to 'force a draw'... scum would just flip at the last second right?

No Lynching/tying is only a useful strategy if we think that it would narrow down our scum pool very effectively by seeing an NK or getting some kind of PR night action. If it doesn't do that, then it just means that there is a smaller base of voters and scum can be more influential in deciding the ultimate vote.

Personally I would rather lynch today. There are certain NKs that I don't think would help me solve this any better than I can today, and I'd rather know I have my four other town with me here, than trying to decipher among six people which three are town and which three are scum. Overall I think No Lynching is much more beneficial to scum when we are all VT.

[flash2015]

I'm here. Just got back from seeing a live show of Critical Role.

I'm VT. Bunny knows this. Bunny has abandoned their normal rational reasons, and logical cases for hysterics. It is very unlike them.

I voted EMC because I thought they were scum... I switched to Bob for the same reason, but changed my mind about them later.

The team is Bunny + 1K + 1F

What about my reasoning that scum shouldn't have sacrificed EMC on D1 when they had at least 1 viable other wagon? If you are town (and you know it) then Bob's WHOLE WAGON was town. Not 1 scum could save EMC?

Scum couldn't have jumped to you because your scum. I can't tell you why they didn't jump on Bob... because I'm not scum.

I can tell you that I thought Bob was scummy at the time and he turned me around later. Maybe I'm wrong and he is scum. The fact that the top three wagons on D1 were all scum is too much of a reach.

Note: I am not saying that all scum voted for EMC D1, but...
If the scum list is full of 'veterans' maybe with 4 goons and no reason to value any one scum over the others they decided that an EMC sacrifice (someone known to get modkilled before) was a fantastic investment. That scum could bring it up later (just like you're doing now).

I am caught up now and see the votes... this is a mislynch.

If you couldn't vote for Bunny, is there anyone else you could see yourself voting for?

[flash2015]

It would help if I read your message. So you would vote for Bob? You think Bob is more likely scummy than Bunny?

[KalelChase]

What about my reasoning that scum shouldn't have sacrificed EMC on D1 when they had at least 1 viable other wagon? If you are town (and you know it) then Bob's WHOLE WAGON was town. Not 1 scum could save EMC?

Scum couldn't have jumped to you because your scum. I can't tell you why they didn't jump on Bob... because I'm not scum.

I can tell you that I thought Bob was scummy at the time and he turned me around later. Maybe I'm wrong and he is scum. The fact that the top three wagons on D1 were all scum is too much of a reach.

Note: I am not saying that all scum voted for EMC D1, but...
If the scum list is full of 'veterans' maybe with 4 goons and no reason to value any one scum over the others they decided that an EMC sacrifice (someone known to get modkilled before) was a fantastic investment. That scum could bring it up later (just like you're doing now).

I am caught up now and see the votes... this is a mislynch.

If you couldn't vote for Bunny, is there anyone else you could see yourself voting for?

Sure, Kak would be my second, and Fox my third.

I will fully admit a bias to 'town' both Kit and Bun. My aggressiveness towards Bunny might be overcompensating for that known bias, and the fact that I feel like I've been defending myself vs. their (and Jamie's) scum reads for some time now.

I consider Bunny someone who should know me pretty well at this point, and am a bit shocked they're still miss-reading me (Below D1 observation... "scummy scum scum" is so strong for what I had posted so far), which is also driving my scum read.

Trying to catch up for EOD. Have to pick up kids.

1) I’m fed up with EMC. I policy voted last game and will do again
2) Kalel is scummy scum scum
3) the rest looks noisy to me. Could be anything so far
4) I’m so glad BB is here. I’m surprised I’m saying that.

But to your point, "get off your ass Kal and go on the offensive".
Updating my list...
TOWN - Food, Kit (I'm biased), Kal, Bob

NULL - I have had Fox as town before for pushing me to think, but the results from that weren't great as I had Vec as town before that.

SCUM - That just leaves Bunny, Kak and Flash... what were their votes
Bunny
D1 (emc -> Dam)
D2 (Boz->Boz->Boz->Brain->Boz)
That D2 voting is so scummy - read the 2nd and third Boz votes. This just solidifies my scum read.
D3 (Brain -> Unvote -> Dam -> Bob -> Food -> Flash -> Kak -> Kal)
Hopping around like a bitch so they can say they voted for everybody.

Kak
D1 (Dam->Flash->Jamiet)
D2(Jamiet->Boz)
D3 (Dam-> Kak -> Damo) Smart voting for self preservation, if that's your priority

Flash (my weakest Scum read... really only here because I town Food, but could swap out for fox (or potentially Kit).
D1 (Brain->Fox->Damo)
D2 (Kak)
D3 (Jamiet -> Kal)

##Vote Kakarroto

But I'll be voting Bunny eventually if I'm here.

[Foxcastle]

I still think it's likely that Flash is scum who's coasted through the game, and if he's waking up now, it's because they're on the cusp of winning.

##VOTE FLASH for now, no-lynch is still possibly a good idea, and Kakarroto needs another look after EOD.

So you have just given up on the spreadsheet then? Looking back through your ISO you seem remarkably disinterested this game. Perhaps you thought that first day bus on emc would inoculate you for the entire game? No wonder emc was so relaxed with the whole situation.

I am really not liking Fox here. If he really believes I am his best scum option, he should be making a case. You can't be off on a vanity wagon today.

This is ridiculous. Flash has done nothing the whole game and then shows up demanding rigor. You know there can't be a good case on you because you've coasted this whole game.

But now you're waking up, because you're scum and you've gotten greedy for the win.

[Foxcastle]

Foodcaots, Kalel, Flash, and Kitsune are the 4 people who are even more useless than I am right now.

[...]

is this why those are still alive? what do you all think about that?

I think scum love low-participation lurkers in general, and I think scum hide there also. They're still alive because 2-3 of them are no threat (or weren't, Food and Kalel stepping up some), and 1-2 of them are alive because they're scum.

[flash2015]

I still think it's likely that Flash is scum who's coasted through the game, and if he's waking up now, it's because they're on the cusp of winning.

##VOTE FLASH for now, no-lynch is still possibly a good idea, and Kakarroto needs another look after EOD.

So you have just given up on the spreadsheet then? Looking back through your ISO you seem remarkably disinterested this game. Perhaps you thought that first day bus on emc would inoculate you for the entire game? No wonder emc was so relaxed with the whole situation.

I am really not liking Fox here. If he really believes I am his best scum option, he should be making a case. You can't be off on a vanity wagon today.

This is ridiculous. Flash has done nothing the whole game and then shows up demanding rigor. You know there can't be a good case on you because you've coasted this whole game.

But now you're waking up, because you're scum and you've gotten greedy for the win.

Wow, I am even more certain of Fox's scumminess now. You are acting like you haven't played with me before.

[flash2015]

Again, you still are off on your vanity wagon.

[Foxcastle]

Looking at the vote record, I think Flash + Kakarroto could make sense.

D1: Flash votes Damo with 9 minutes to go, which could be a weak bid to save EMC. Kak sits on Jamie, nice and out of the way.

D2: Flash busses Kak, but is the only vote on Kak the whole day, and then he sits there at EOD, safely out of the way of what we now know was a TvT lynch. Kak piles on Bozo at the last minute.

D3: Flash sits on Kalel, and I pointed out previously why Kakarroto's D3 votes are scummy.

[Foxcastle]

Again, you still are off on your vanity wagon.

So... you demand a case, but then assert I'm not supposed to be making a case on you anyway???

[BunnyGo]

At least then it is a draw for a day...

OK, you are right. If one townie is wrong and we get a draw, then we get another day.

It's not possible to 'force a draw'... scum would just flip at the last second right?

To lynch their own if 4 town are voting scum?