M53: Mafia 1 Redux

[foodcoats]

who had 3+ on them as wagon: bunny(4), bob(5), jamie(4), flash(3), kalel(5) (you could say me (4) as well but I don't count that since it was self fabricated)
who didn't: foxcastle, kitsune, food, myself (if you don't count my self fabricated)
I think, scum didn't get much pressure this game, scum would be easy to find in this group

also, there is still the question: why are we alive, why are the others dead. Part of that, I believe, are our reads. I think scum doesn't nk the ones with bad reads like myself, because of the usefulness to scum.

pretty much town
Jamie - I think he dies tonight. I can only see him being scum in the team jamie-bunny-flash
Bunny - with being the only one to go to me to vote at EoD, he got may town points from me.

townish but a bit unsure
Kitsune - while I didn't like the reaction, when I was voting for myself (scared? because I'd flip town?) I like the rest I see, plus stayed on until last minute to avoid a tie.
bob & kalel - I think both fits into the same category, doing something, trying to help, but playing into the hands of scum.

scummy
flash - I still see no efforts, we are on the brink of losing. Or are you not?
foxcastle - don't remember damo's dead? or brain? that's too disturbing. That raised too many red flags, fox also fits into the category of not having gotten much pressure
food - why am I obvtown to food? that just doesn't fit

Hey you called it, Jaime did die. That's nice.

[flash2015]

Day 1: Kalel was trying to get a counter wagon going?

The people on my wagon were 3 Town and 1 Scum. On Bob's wagon 3 town AND ??? Did not 1 scum try to get on that wagon? Was BOB SCUM?

Also, food missed EOD, did he miss saving his teammate? Why did Kalel not move to my wagon?

I am confused. Are you talking about Kalel or Kak? When Kalel voted emc, emc was already the top wagon. When Kalel moved to Bob, Bob moved from 2nd wagon -> top wagon moving past emc. I am not sure how he tried to get a counterwagon going.

However, Kak tried to make the Jamie wagon a thing (after he moved to Jamie it became 3-2-2-2 with emc on 3 and Jamie one of the 2's). Is that what you are referring to with the counter wagon thing?

Day 2: Harder to suss out.

Day 3: Kalel was the leading wagon for a while. Then at the last second Kak (who had been voting himself to a 3 way tie...scummiest thing that EOD) and Kit jump on Damo.

*IF* Kalel is scum, it seems to implicate Kak from yesterday

*IF* Kalel is town, it seems to implicate Bob from day 1 (not 1 scum could save EMC?) and maybe Kak?

Yes, if Kalel is scum, Kak could have been trying to save him here.

So if Bob was bussing emc and Kalel is not scum them are you suggesting a scum team like Bob/Kak/Food?

[flash2015]

I think Bob is towny for his vote...either that or coached.

I think Kalel is scummy for his.

I think flash is lazy, but will get there. Null.

Are you buddying me?

[BunnyGo]

I think Bob is towny for his vote...either that or coached.

I think Kalel is scummy for his.

I think flash is lazy, but will get there. Null.

Are you buddying me?

I'll answer this question by quoting a previous post:

I get a nap and wake up to this shit? Ugh. I hate everything and everyone. Good night.

[BunnyGo]

More research for ppl to do: (DO SOME RESEARCH PEOPLE!!!)

Who did our cop suggest was town?

[BunnyGo]

<sni>
I am confused. Are you talking about Kalel or Kak? When Kalel voted emc, emc was already the top wagon. When Kalel moved to Bob, Bob moved from 2nd wagon -> top wagon moving past emc. I am not sure how he tried to get a counterwagon going.

However, Kak tried to make the Jamie wagon a thing (after he moved to Jamie it became 3-2-2-2 with emc on 3 and Jamie one of the 2's). Is that what you are referring to with the counter wagon thing?
<snip>
Yes, if Kalel is scum, Kak could have been trying to save him here.

So if Bob was bussing emc and Kalel is not scum them are you suggesting a scum team like Bob/Kak/Food?

I'm looking at Kalel to gain intel about others.

If Kalel is town, then why did EMC get lynched? Either Bob is scum, or all the scum didn't try to move? If they are scum, why didn't I get lynched? Did bozo fool them all with his feint?

[BobMcBob]

<sni>
I am confused. Are you talking about Kalel or Kak? When Kalel voted emc, emc was already the top wagon. When Kalel moved to Bob, Bob moved from 2nd wagon -> top wagon moving past emc. I am not sure how he tried to get a counterwagon going.

However, Kak tried to make the Jamie wagon a thing (after he moved to Jamie it became 3-2-2-2 with emc on 3 and Jamie one of the 2's). Is that what you are referring to with the counter wagon thing?
<snip>
Yes, if Kalel is scum, Kak could have been trying to save him here.

So if Bob was bussing emc and Kalel is not scum them are you suggesting a scum team like Bob/Kak/Food?

I'm looking at Kalel to gain intel about others.

If Kalel is town, then why did EMC get lynched? Either Bob is scum, or all the scum didn't try to move? If they are scum, why didn't I get lynched? Did bozo fool them all with his feint?

Ah, so this is part of the reason there's a me vs Kalel going on? Fwiw, I think scumteam is most likely kalel-bunny-flash or maybe chuck Karrot in there somewhere.

[BunnyGo]

<snip>

Ah, so this is part of the reason there's a me vs Kalel going on? Fwiw, I think scumteam is most likely kalel-bunny-flash or maybe chuck Karrot in there somewhere.

You just got this? Are you even trying to read and think about motivations? Clearly not...

[foodcoats]

BunnyGo's voting is very strange:

D1 Bunny sits on emc all day. The original vote is not explained. Bunny does not explain until 1.5 hours before EOD:

Trying to catch up for EOD. Have to pick up kids.

1) I’m fed up with EMC. I policy voted last game and will do again
2) Kalel is scummy scum scum
3) the rest looks noisy to me. Could be anything so far
4) I’m so glad BB is here. I’m surprised I’m saying that.

But then, 13 minutes before EOD, Bunny relents and votes damo. Literally with no explanation as to why they are now voting damo. And they are only now unvoting emc because emc wouldn't vote, but has now voted. In other words, Bunny's D1 vote has no logic or purpose to it.

Jamie, Kit, Bungo, someone I'm forgetting maybe

Read my fucking posts lol

Just because I style them jocular, add emotes, and extensively condense does not mean that there are no posts. Avoiding strong adjectives except for cases of sarcasm is not-not having an opinion.

I've already asked earlier in the day if it was difficult to understand and if it needed extending to no response, of which the obvious conclusion is that yes, everyone gets it.

I have been. I honestly think you’re town. I just fu*^ing hate how you won’t vote. I expect you to vote on ME as a holding vote at the start of day 2.

##VOTE DAMO

D2, Bunny sits on bozo on all day (minus a very short stint on brain). Doesn't mention bozo D1, mind you. Or N1. In fact, Bunny votes bozo by aligning with damo... who was Bunny's D1 end vote. At the time damo made these statements, there was no verifiable truth to them, and if Bunny had truly suspected damo was scum at the end of D1, what had changed to make them agree suddenly that this logic of damo's identified scum and that it wasn't just scumplay from damo? And why not bozo over Kalel? I think that Bunny needed a line to pick up and play with, forgot he had voted for damo, and tried to stickhandle ahead with this idea of damo's that Kalel or bozo "must" be scum in order to generate a "ballad of bozo."

Looking at the 3 main wagons day 1 and considering there were at least 2 town on each of the 4 vote wagons there surely must be AT LEAST one scum among brain bozo and Kalel.

Agreed. ##VOTE BOZO
for now. Time for kiddos bedtime. Will be back in 3 hours or so for the ballad of bozo.

D3 is vastly different. While on previous days Bunny votes for one or two people, Bunny now votes for seven separate players, and also makes an unvote. When the Bob wagon gets hot, Bunny moves to me... because...?

Well, due to a combination of procrastination, distraction and having work to do, I'm not going to get around to those reads after all... lynch me if you want, I'll take it. I didn't play a particularly invested game after Day 1. That said, I'd prefer not to be lynched. I'm not even the least active...

##VOTE FOOD

Because Bob would prefer not to be lynched? So he wants to wagon me? Looking back up, Bunny scumread me because I didn't vote for emc (neither did he) and because I didn't try to save emc (even though Bunny himself DID try to save emc by moving from emc to damo with 13 minutes to go). (Also because he thinks I was fishing for PR crumbs with the D&D thing).

In any event, he doens't stay on me: he tries out flash, Kakarroto and Kalel as well. Considering he pushed Kakarroto into the lead with 8 minutes to go and then Kalel into the lead with 2 minutes to go, I don't think Bunny can be scum with Kakarroto or Kalel. But he certainly can be scum with flash (who he busses on a dead wagon with 1.5 hours to go) and/or Bob (who he bussed earlier in the day).

Bunny, what made you so focused D1 and D2 but so spastic D3?

[foodcoats]

So, one possible scumteam is emc, BunnyGo, flash, and BobMcBob.

Now I will read Kakarroto.

[foodcoats]

This is a good post from Kakarroto and is actually the kind of thing that initially made me think they were "obvtown." Kak pushes flash hard here. It's very personal and attacking. That's quite townie (compare for example to Jamie when he was attacking Kalel).

Well, seems like my vote has magical powers, because of that, and since I want more info, @flash, are you currently at work, can you only post one time at the day? Do you like to lurk or is it something similar to damo's D1 aversion? Do you think Austria is the first country to die?

##vote flash2015

I am just a lazy ass...and yes, Austria is usually the first country to die (especially when I am Italy).

... ##vote flash even harder following up with a fleet into the adriadic sea

ok, jokes aside, how does your lazyness show especially, do you not like to post or to read? Do you reread and if yes, how often? Do you see scum hunting as a chore or do you enjoy it? Are you bothered by answering questions?

Also, do you see Austria losing first in your games as an inherit penalty of the country or do just most player lack in the ability to play as Austria effectively?

[...]
I would like to hear other people's thoughts on Neph-xorx interactions, because I can't tell if there's anything deeper to be drawn from it
[...]

-) the discussion of the additions in the rules seem ok, I had my share of PM's about it (only to our GM's of course, so right now not accessable, they should be stored in the god QT for after the game, if you're interested in). Nephthys not answering promptly is a bit meh, but surely not any role-indicative. I can think of one or two reasons (like making others do their homework, poking for reaction, ...) for it.

-) xorx granting half a townie point: he did something similar last game, don't know on top of my head if it was only half or a full point but I think it was also towards RD in that game. Both xorx and RD were town then, so either scum xorx has copied that for this game or town xorx just does this on a regular basis (now I'm too lazy to look that up in other games that go further back in time, especially since I don't think it's saying much).

-) "xorxes feels a bit off" is a little pun and got a special place in my heart now.

-) both talking about reads to each other: the flow of the conversation between the two seems pretty good and natural to me, I tend to agree with the read on jamie, not so much for kitsune, haven't been too focussed on single players yet but more the overall read of the game though, so I will get into that.

A tick against Kakarroto is that he asks bozo why we aren't talking about massclaiming even though that is inane in this setup. But that just might be that Kakarroto doesn't fully understand the nuances of the PRs and claiming (I am only just starting to get them after 6 games).

D1 his vote on flash makes sense. I'm not totally sure his vote on Jamie does. His posts where he mentions Jamie are pretty hedgy and asking other people for advice about how Jamie plays. If flash is scum, Kakarroto could be scum with him, because Kak had a better push by far on flash than he did on Jamie but ended on Jamie anyway.

But actually on D2 Kakarroto says this, which I like. Some people might call this hedgy or waffling but honestly this expresses how I feel a lot of the time:

##vote Jamie

I think he's the sk and we need to kill the sk first to get us much more time to find the other scum.

I'm going to read up to what I've missed.

How the actual f$&k can you suspect SK at this point. I’m serious. Explain it to me.

The same way you suspect town and scum of course. Jamie is off this game, he is more focussed than when he is town. Still, at the same time, he seems clueless about the whole situation, like he has a certain goal in mind but doesn't see the way. On one hand I see why people can read him as town because of that, but there is still this uncanny behaviour, it all started after xorx and neph townread him, remind you, both of them are dead now, so no one can change their read of him. It's also hard to describe, call it gut feeling if you want, so I know not many will see this as any more than stupid rambling but it's my best read on the negative scale I have right now, and maybe I'm wrong but I'd be lying if I'd say anything else about that. Well maybe phrased another way but I think you get the point.

On D3 Kakarroto makes some huge walls posts where he addresses tons of different players at once and personally I don't find that very compelling. It looks like activity but it doesn't help guide an analysis process to catch scum. Also, self-voting on D3 was super scummy - that's a strategy that scum use sometimes, as in, "surely I would not do this if I were scum!"

But overall I'm pretty confident with Kakarroto as town right now. Today being MYLO I would not vote for Kakarroto. I do think the flash/Kakarroto connection is important because Kak has not come back around to flash, despite heavy attacks early on, but flash is also playing much better now. But if one of them is scum I think it would significantly heighten the chance that the other is.

[foodcoats]

I have a good idea who I want to lynch today. I've changed my mind for first lynch choice. It starts with a B and it's not me.

What made you change your mind from Kalel to Bunny? Why are you voting Bunny right now?

[foodcoats]

So here is the vote history taking out all those that died:

e.m.c^42 (5) Foxcastle BobMcBob Kitsune
BobMcBob (4) KalelChase
Jamiet99uk (2) Kakarroto
damo666 (2) BunnyGo *flash2015
brainbomb (1) foodcoats

D2

bozotheclown (6) BobMcBob BunnyGo Kitsune Foxcastle Kakarroto
brainbomb (5) KalelChase foodcoats
Kakarroto (1) *flash2015

D3

damo666 (5) foodcoats BobMcBob Foxcastle Kakarroto Kitsune
KalelChase (5) *flash2015
BunnyGo (1) BunnyGo
Kakarrotto (1) KalelChase

Looking back at my earlier comments from D1, I don't know what I was on about. There really isn't as much to see there as I had claimed.

D2 is more interesting. Do we really believe it is likely that all three scum piled onto bozo? It was a T v T. I would have to believe that there was at least one scum on the BB wagon...so either Kalel and/or food is scum.

D3 again is kind of interesting. Did all scum pile onto damo? I would have to assume at least one of Bunny or Kalel is scum. Did Bunny perhaps panic when he realized that two other scum were already on damo...so he did the weird self vote?

##VOTE Bunny

Bunny did not do a self-vote. Is that the main reason you think Bunny is scum? Since you are mixing up Bunny and Kakarroto, should you be voting for Kakarroto instead?

If the vote analysis leads you to believe that either myself or Kalel is scum, or Bunny or Kalel is scum, why would you not vote for Kalel, they being the most statistically likely given all scenarios?

[foodcoats]

Since we're at MiLo, we need to make sure we lynch scum today and tomorrow, hold the lynch the day after, and then lynch the last scum on the final day (it's a real strategy, they did it in M46 or something). So we need to make sure that scum can't force a mislynch or else they win.

Which means I'll take a lot of persuading to move away from my own reads, and will do as much investigation as I can.

For now, sticking with what I know until I have time to review and see if anything has changed in my eyes.

##vote Kakarroto

Fox? Bob?

The case on Bunny please? I mean, I see some scumminess there (see my readlist before EoN and he's certainly been erratic) but we can't afford any more mistakes at this point.

I want to know we have our rabbit.

This looks like hedging. Are you so sure that Kakarroto is scum? What makes you think that? If you feel that you need to stick so closely to your existing reads at MYLO, what could possibly make you change to vote for Bunny? We all have the same information already. Or do you have more than we do?

[foodcoats]

Oh brain ...

Damo & BB I'll miss you guys. You made this fun.
Sorry Kak... my last minute vote was from 5 minutes before EoD wasn't caught up.

If Damo had flipped scum I was going to say the final two were Bunny and Flash... but since this is not the case I have to look at some info.

I'm ignoring Bunny and my last minute votes for a second...
Looking at votes :38min till EoD...

00:34 Kak dam➙Kak 3 Kal 3 Kak 3 dam 2 fla
00:08 Bun fla➙Kak 4 Kak 3 Kal 3 dam 1 fla
00:05 bra Kak➙Bun 3 Kal 3 Kak 3 dam 1 Bun
00:04 Fox fla➙dam 4 dam 3 Kal 3 Kak 1 Bun
00:03 bra Bun➙Kal 4 Kal 4 dam 3 Kak
00:02 Bun Kak➙Kal 5 Kal 4 dam 2 Kak
00:01 Kak Kak➙dam 5 Kal 5 dam 1 Kak
00:01 Kit Kak➙dam 6 dam 5 Kal

Flash, Bunny and Kak were the ones "in danger".
Kak, Bun, Bra, Fox, Kit voted during that window to change the two wagons to two towns.
Overlap there is Bun and Kak...

Again, just regurgitating information hoping someone smarter than me can put it together.
Scum will likely leave me alive since I'm so useless, but if they do kill me it means this post was threatening.

If I die tonight lynch Bunny.

Kalel, damo did not flip scum. And you didn't die last night. So why are you now saying Bunny is "so much more there" for you? It would seem the basis of your vote does not exist.

[foodcoats]

Why are you lurking Fox?

##VOTE Foxcastle

[Foxcastle]

Why are you lurking Fox?

##VOTE Foxcastle

It is barely 9 o'clock and I am just getting to work. So calm yourself, you will hear more from me shortly.

[flash2015]

Bunny did not do a self-vote. Is that the main reason you think Bunny is scum? Since you are mixing up Bunny and Kakarroto, should you be voting for Kakarroto instead?

If the vote analysis leads you to believe that either myself or Kalel is scum, or Bunny or Kalel is scum, why would you not vote for Kalel, they being the most statistically likely given all scenarios?

BunnyGo did do a self-vote right at the end. This is what I am questioning:

##vote Damo

##VOTE BUNNY

Yes, Kak did also self-vote but in the end he ended on Damo. Which in your opinion is more scummy? I would say the self-vote at the end. I am not seeing the town motivation in it.

Kalel may be scum...but I want to be careful that I don't go into tunneling mode. My original decision for voting Kalel on previous days was at least partially wrong (my fault for not really paying attention).

[Foxcastle]

I am very interested in Day 3, because it was a shitshow and it was hard to see what was going on, and it lasted longer than people expected.

Let's say it starts with 1:15 to go, when Bob moves his vote from Kalel to Damo, moving Damo into the lead with 4 votes to Kalel's 3 and Flash's 2.

At 0:36 out, Kak moves to Damo. (Damo 5, Kalel 3, Flash 2)

Brain moves off Damo to onto Kak (Damo 4, Kalel 3, Flash 2, Kak 2)

Kak moves off Damo to self vote (Damo 3, Kalel 3, Kak 3, Flash 2). This seems like an extreme reaction. There's 34 minutes to go, Brain didn't even put him in the lead. So why do this? I asked, and he replied, "Because I think I'm a dead man walking anyway, this way I'm forcing other people to give more information to help town in the last bit." I think the more likely answer is that he was positioning himself for a last-minute save--which he then attempted at 0:01 minute to go. (This is a trick I learned from Bozo: if you're on your own wagon, when you jump off, the difference isn't just one vote, it's two, so you have a better chance of self-saving.) I don't find that inherently scummy (I've done it as town), but it strikes me as belying fear that you've been caught (especially by a town semi-clear), which combined with trying to misdirect about the purpose is scummy.

BunnyGo moves from Flash to Kak.

Brainbomb moves from Kak to BunnyGo. It's a threeway tie between Kalel, kak, and Damo at this point, each at 3 points.

I move off Flash (his wagon effectively died when BunnyGo moved off), to Damo, putting him in the lead 4 to 3 for Kalel and kak.

Brainbomb goes to Kalel, creating another 4-4 tie between Damo and Kal.

BunnyGo breaks the tie in Kalel's favor.

Kak moves from self-voting to Damo to create another 5-5 tie between Damo and Kalel. There is no more risk to his wagon at this point. Why create a tie? Unless maybe you're trying to save someone.

Kitsune moves from Kak to Damo, making it Damo 6 versus Kalel 5. That's the last vote before the bot cuts off it's count.

BunnyGo then votes himself, in direct response to Kit's vote (he quotes it). So it's then Damo 6 to Kalel 4. Why do this instead of voting for Damo? Unless you're hoping for more chaos and the remaining potential of a tie (especially in a crosspost). This actually does not look as bad as I thought in the moment when there was trouble tracking votes, because it does actually put Damo ahead. But it doesn't look as good as Damo vote would have. Or any vote really. Maybe he was hoping someone would jump off the Damo wagon (food, Bob, Fox, Kak, Kit) onto Kalel to cause a tie.

Then Brainbomb unvotes. He had been on Kalel, so that made it Damo 6 to Kalel 3.

Then Kalel votes Kakarroto, which seems pointless. But he had been on Damo, so it became Damo 5, Kalel 3.

Then EOD is called. Sorry if that is tedious, but I think a record is good, especially for the portions after the bot stops recording.

I think Kak looks worst here.

[Foxcastle]

Since we're at MiLo, we need to make sure we lynch scum today and tomorrow, hold the lynch the day after, and then lynch the last scum on the final day (it's a real strategy, they did it in M46 or something). So we need to make sure that scum can't force a mislynch or else they win.

Since it is MiLo, any reason why we couldn't no lynch today?

Interesting contrasts in these views...