Octavious wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:39 pm
Which point of yours do you feel that I haven't addressed?
The clarification I asked right there? But this is usual for you.
OK, if we want to discuss mail-in voting in the US, let's discuss mail-in voting in the US.
If you are arguing that mail-in voting should be rare, that ship has sailed. Mail-in voting in the US is not new. In 2016 between a 5th and a quarter of all votes cast were by mail. Around 40% of all ballots in 2016 were not cast on election day:
https://www.eac.gov/documents/2017/10/1 ... y-overview
Five states have been doing all mail-in voting for years now (Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Colorado and Utah):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... il-states/
Whilst "democratic states" are a little higher over all for mail-in ballots, there are significant "red states" which already do a lot of mail in voting. Utah, for example, has been doing all mail voting for years. Arizona, which last went democratic in 1996 had 60% of voting down via mail. Florida, Iowa, Nebraska and Ohio all had 20-25% of ballots cast by mail.
There hasn't been any evidence in the past that mail in balloting gives either party an advantage:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... advantage/
So what is different this time? Many states have decided to increase the availability of mail-in balloting to account for the pandemic. Not only are there potential risks to voting, there is also the perception of risk. The goal of mail-in voting is to give voters more options to account for this potential risk or this perceived risk.
In most states that have changed their mail-in balloting procedures (as stated in the wapo article) they have either chosen to allow "no excuse absentee" or are specifically mailing out applications for "no excuse absentee" ballots. These changes to mail-in voting processes cross the gamut from very "red states" (e.g. West Virginia) to very "blue states" (e.g. Illinois). A few states have decided to join the existing five states that already are full vote-by-mail (California, DC, New Jersey, Vermont, Nevada). Whilst I am not the biggest fan of all mail-in-voting, only one of these new states is even remotely in play (Nevada).
I have seen some Trump supporters claim that in the past absentee balloting requires a notary...but this new mail-in balloting has somehow done away with these controls. This is nonsense - only 7 states have had this requirement and none of them are competitive:
https://www.nationalnotary.org/notary-b ... tarization
There is a belief that the democrats will take advantage of mail-in voting more than Republicans because, in general, their concerns about COVID are higher (many Republicans, due to all the conspiracy nonsense often shared by the president himself, believe COVID is a "hoax"). Because of this Trump sees that there is an advantage to him in casting doubt on the veracity of these ballots. Again mail-in voting has been done for YEARS. There is nothing new about mail in voting. Trump of course has no morals. He is going to use any and all avenues to win whatever the cost even if it means calling on his supporters to treat the result as illegitimate. We can say "oh, this is just talk" but I hear his supporters repeat this nonsense again and again and again. It does matter.
If in 2016, we had 20-25% of ballots cast by mail and only 60% cast on election day, perhaps in 2020 we will have 40-50% cast by mail and only 20-30% cast on election day. Given this, unless there is a Biden landslide, it is unlikely we will get the election result the same day. If the election shifts away from Trump from the mail-in ballots, it appears he is setting his supporters up to reject the result. Let's hope that doesn't happen...
Now to the specific concern about "intimidation"...as it seems like it was suggested that in-person intimidation isn't too bad because the vote-by-mail intimidation could be worse. Sure, intimidation around the kitchen table is possible but if you look at the voting skew for Trump, he votes between 10% - 30% higher with men than women:
https://cawp.rutgers.edu/presidential-p ... g-2020#GGN
Given this I would argue that if there is any voter intimation at home going on it would likely benefit Trump. Democrats are not going to "steal" the election through mail-in voting. If they win it is because Trump is ultimately an unpopular president.