Preparing for the worst

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Octavious
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Re: Preparing for the worst

#21 Post by Octavious » Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:55 pm

Dear self appointed thread policeman, flash.

Read the opening paragraph of the opening post again. You will note it specifically mentions, and I quote
mail-ins, voter suppression, and fraud acqusations
It is fully on topic. Even if it wasn't it would have been a perfectly legitimate path for the conversation to flow.

Now either address my comment or ignore it, but stop wasting everyone's time with this petty minded and quibbling. And if you insist on petty minded quibbling, at least try to be right.

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#22 Post by flash2015 » Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:34 pm

You could actually address my comment first. You appear to be arguing that voter intimidation/suppression at the polling both is OK because mail in voting may have problems too? Please clarify.

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#23 Post by Octavious » Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:39 pm

Which point of yours do you feel that I haven't addressed?

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#24 Post by orathaic » Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:09 pm

Having seen the actual 'demonstration' I would like to withdraw any comments I made calling this violence or likening it to political terrorism.

While Trump's supporters may well end up committing acts of violence if they believe their election win has been stolen, and this show of force is a demonstration to all that they are serious, I don't think anyone can have been particularly intimidated.

Sometimes it is more important for your group to feel like it has achieved something, that you have power, so that the empowerment leads to more action. And I fear what those actions will be in November.

That said, Oct, your comment about the law is rather telling. We live in unprecedented times, the law may not be broken, that does not make an action moral or Just.
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Re: Preparing for the worst

#25 Post by Octavious » Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:16 pm

orathaic wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:09 pm
That said, Oct, your comment about the law is rather telling. We live in unprecedented times, the law may not be broken, that does not make an action moral or Just.
It doesn't make it immoral or unjust either. It makes it a bunch of people engaging legally in the political process.

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#26 Post by orathaic » Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:28 pm

The only message at a polling place should be 'go vote'. Are you advocating for lúb Dems to arm themselves and stand as close as legally allowed to the local polling to places as a strategy for good political engagement in the next UK election?
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Re: Preparing for the worst

#27 Post by Le Plume » Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:55 am

Have you discussed the merits of electronic (with a computer) vs. paper ballots?

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#28 Post by Octavious » Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:48 am

orathaic wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:28 pm
The only message at a polling place should be 'go vote'. Are you advocating for lúb Dems to arm themselves and stand as close as legally allowed to the local polling to places as a strategy for good political engagement in the next UK election?
In the UK the law is quite clear that polling day campaigning is not permitted, armed or otherwise, so clearly not. But if that wasn't the case then there would be nothing ethically wrong with the idea. From a more practical point of view I would imagine that it's utterly ineffective and probably self defeating, so I wouldn't recommend it.

I am perfectly happy with the election day rules in the UK and by far prefer them to those that exist in the US. However the rules are what you play to. In Diplomacy I don't send units to Ireland because the rules state Ireland isn't a territory. If Ireland was a territory defined by the rules I'd have no qualms whatsoever about sending a unit there, but can't imagine it making much sense to do so. This situation seems much the same.

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#29 Post by Randomizer » Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:17 am

Le Plume wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:55 am
Have you discussed the merits of electronic (with a computer) vs. paper ballots?
Electronic voting depends upon the machine and how it documents votes for later recounts. Some create paper records and others have purely electronic records that can't be verified if it has been altered.

Right now there are several states being sued for failure to allow visually impaired or otherwise handicapped voters from using computer voting like overseas voters and military servicemen who can't vote in person. With some voters not wanting to vote in public where they are more likely to touch surfaces or see how close they are to others, this has become an equal rights issue.
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Re: Preparing for the worst

#30 Post by flash2015 » Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:59 am

Octavious wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:39 pm
Which point of yours do you feel that I haven't addressed?
The clarification I asked right there? But this is usual for you.

OK, if we want to discuss mail-in voting in the US, let's discuss mail-in voting in the US.

If you are arguing that mail-in voting should be rare, that ship has sailed. Mail-in voting in the US is not new. In 2016 between a 5th and a quarter of all votes cast were by mail. Around 40% of all ballots in 2016 were not cast on election day:

https://www.eac.gov/documents/2017/10/1 ... y-overview

Five states have been doing all mail-in voting for years now (Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Colorado and Utah):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... il-states/

Whilst "democratic states" are a little higher over all for mail-in ballots, there are significant "red states" which already do a lot of mail in voting. Utah, for example, has been doing all mail voting for years. Arizona, which last went democratic in 1996 had 60% of voting down via mail. Florida, Iowa, Nebraska and Ohio all had 20-25% of ballots cast by mail.

There hasn't been any evidence in the past that mail in balloting gives either party an advantage:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... advantage/

So what is different this time? Many states have decided to increase the availability of mail-in balloting to account for the pandemic. Not only are there potential risks to voting, there is also the perception of risk. The goal of mail-in voting is to give voters more options to account for this potential risk or this perceived risk.

In most states that have changed their mail-in balloting procedures (as stated in the wapo article) they have either chosen to allow "no excuse absentee" or are specifically mailing out applications for "no excuse absentee" ballots. These changes to mail-in voting processes cross the gamut from very "red states" (e.g. West Virginia) to very "blue states" (e.g. Illinois). A few states have decided to join the existing five states that already are full vote-by-mail (California, DC, New Jersey, Vermont, Nevada). Whilst I am not the biggest fan of all mail-in-voting, only one of these new states is even remotely in play (Nevada).

I have seen some Trump supporters claim that in the past absentee balloting requires a notary...but this new mail-in balloting has somehow done away with these controls. This is nonsense - only 7 states have had this requirement and none of them are competitive:

https://www.nationalnotary.org/notary-b ... tarization

There is a belief that the democrats will take advantage of mail-in voting more than Republicans because, in general, their concerns about COVID are higher (many Republicans, due to all the conspiracy nonsense often shared by the president himself, believe COVID is a "hoax"). Because of this Trump sees that there is an advantage to him in casting doubt on the veracity of these ballots. Again mail-in voting has been done for YEARS. There is nothing new about mail in voting. Trump of course has no morals. He is going to use any and all avenues to win whatever the cost even if it means calling on his supporters to treat the result as illegitimate. We can say "oh, this is just talk" but I hear his supporters repeat this nonsense again and again and again. It does matter.

If in 2016, we had 20-25% of ballots cast by mail and only 60% cast on election day, perhaps in 2020 we will have 40-50% cast by mail and only 20-30% cast on election day. Given this, unless there is a Biden landslide, it is unlikely we will get the election result the same day. If the election shifts away from Trump from the mail-in ballots, it appears he is setting his supporters up to reject the result. Let's hope that doesn't happen...

Now to the specific concern about "intimidation"...as it seems like it was suggested that in-person intimidation isn't too bad because the vote-by-mail intimidation could be worse. Sure, intimidation around the kitchen table is possible but if you look at the voting skew for Trump, he votes between 10% - 30% higher with men than women:

https://cawp.rutgers.edu/presidential-p ... g-2020#GGN

Given this I would argue that if there is any voter intimation at home going on it would likely benefit Trump. Democrats are not going to "steal" the election through mail-in voting. If they win it is because Trump is ultimately an unpopular president.

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#31 Post by orathaic » Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:47 am

Octavious wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:48 am
orathaic wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:28 pm
The only message at a polling place should be 'go vote'. Are you advocating for lúb Dems to arm themselves and stand as close as legally allowed to the local polling to places as a strategy for good political engagement in the next UK election?
In the UK the law is quite clear that polling day campaigning is not permitted, armed or otherwise, so clearly not. But if that wasn't the case then there would be nothing ethically wrong with the idea. From a more practical point of view I would imagine that it's utterly ineffective and probably self defeating, so I wouldn't recommend it.

I am perfectly happy with the election day rules in the UK and by far prefer them to those that exist in the US. However the rules are what you play to. In Diplomacy I don't send units to Ireland because the rules state Ireland isn't a territory. If Ireland was a territory defined by the rules I'd have no qualms whatsoever about sending a unit there, but can't imagine it making much sense to do so. This situation seems much the same.
I thought you would go with ineffective. Would you applaud the strategy then if it was effective? That is any situation where the rules allow an armed minority to influence the election result by publically marching around with weapons intimidating opponents?

Would it be reported as 'armed pro-Putin gangs' if this was Russia? Or Belarus?

Imagine it again, but in Afghanistan. 'pro-taliban fighters influence election result'?

Tell me whether you think this is a good thing, not whether you think the rules are what they are. This isn't diplomacy and the important distinction is that games, by their very nature are opt-in. You sit down at a table (virtual or not) and agree to play by a certain set of rules.

Life is not opt-in.
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Re: Preparing for the worst

#32 Post by Octavious » Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:25 am

orathaic wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:47 am
Tell me whether you think this is a good thing, not whether you think the rules are what they are
I believe that I was very clear in saying that I much prefer the UK system where the rules don't allow this...
Octavious wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:48 am
I am perfectly happy with the election day rules in the UK and by far prefer them to those that exist in the US.
Ah, yes I was.

I could say it again if you like?

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#33 Post by Octavious » Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:42 am

flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:59 am
The clarification I asked right there? But this is usual for you.
Are you referring to the point I addressed way back in post #14? If so I refer you to said post.
flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:59 am
If you are arguing that mail-in voting should be rare, that ship has sailed
You are seriously arguing that you can't change it because it's the way things are done? Flash arguing against the very concept of change. Now I've seen everything :lol:
flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:59 am
Sure, intimidation around the kitchen table is possible but if you look at the voting skew for Trump, he votes between 10% - 30% higher with men than women

Given this I would argue that if there is any voter intimation at home going on it would likely benefit Trump.
I'm sorry, but I don't at all see how this argument supports voting by mail. It seems a clear argument against voting by mail, unless I've misunderstood something. Don't get me wrong, I'm delighted to have you on board in recognising the problem, but I am very confused about you apparently trying to use the potential for intimidation and biasing of the result as an argument in favour of voting by mail :?

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#34 Post by orathaic » Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:00 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:25 am
orathaic wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:47 am
Tell me whether you think this is a good thing, not whether you think the rules are what they are
I believe that I was very clear in saying that I much prefer the UK system where the rules don't allow this...
Octavious wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:48 am
I am perfectly happy with the election day rules in the UK and by far prefer them to those that exist in the US.
Ah, yes I was.

I could say it again if you like?
That is not an answer. Saying I prefer apples to oranges, doesn't mean I can't think oranges are good for me.

The question is, do you think it is a good think for any armed group to use their presence on election day as an attempt influence the result?

Not do you think the US or UK's election day rules are preferable.
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Re: Preparing for the worst

#35 Post by flash2015 » Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:39 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:42 am
flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:59 am
The clarification I asked right there? But this is usual for you.
Are you referring to the point I addressed way back in post #14? If so I refer you to said post.
You didn't address it.
flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:59 am
If you are arguing that mail-in voting should be rare, that ship has sailed
You are seriously arguing that you can't change it because it's the way things are done? Flash arguing against the very concept of change. Now I've seen everything :lol:
With this specific statement I was just telling you this is the way it is, nothing more. And until now, as I have shown by the substantial mail-in voting in both Republican and Democrat leaning states, both sides of the aisle didn't believe there were problems with it. This probably suggests, more likely than not, there aren't any significant issues with mail-in voting in the US skewing results.
flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:59 am
Sure, intimidation around the kitchen table is possible but if you look at the voting skew for Trump, he votes between 10% - 30% higher with men than women

Given this I would argue that if there is any voter intimation at home going on it would likely benefit Trump.
I'm sorry, but I don't at all see how this argument supports voting by mail. It seems a clear argument against voting by mail, unless I've misunderstood something. Don't get me wrong, I'm delighted to have you on board in recognising the problem, but I am very confused about you apparently trying to use the potential for intimidation and biasing of the result as an argument in favour of voting by mail :?
There is a difference between "theoretically possible" and "actually happening"...and "actually happening and making a difference to the result". We have no evidence that any significant voter intimidation is happening via vote-by-mail even though substantial mail-in voting in some form has been going on for decades. All I argued is even if it is happening, given the vote split, it would likely go Trump's way. No way of voting is perfect. If you have a better alternative which makes it easier for people to participate in the electoral process in the US, I am happy to hear it, but that is not what you did.

I only argued like this because you made the comparison between potential in-person intimidation (which could benefit Trump - it may not have happened in North Carolina but Trump has been threatening to do it elsewhere, especially since many of the Voter Rights Act restrictions which protected against it are now gone) with theoretically possible mail-in voting intimidation (given you made the comparison without clarification, I will assume you are suggesting benefits democrats), so I am just responding to that.

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#36 Post by Octavious » Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:48 pm

flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:39 pm
You didn't address it.
Then tell me what on earth your mystery point actually is and I will. I am tired of trying to guess what particular direction your brain is going in.
flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:39 pm
With this specific statement I was just telling you this is the way it is, nothing more
that (or the) ship has sailed
phrase of ship
INFORMAL
used in reference to an opportunity that has passed or a situation that can no longer be changed.


Learn to speak English and maybe people will understand what you're trying to say. If you don't understand what these common phrases mean, don't use them.
flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:39 pm
given you made the comparison without clarification, I will assume you are suggesting benefits democrats
Once again assuming has made an ass of you, it seems. You are remarkably bad at it, so it's probably best not to attempt it.

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#37 Post by Octavious » Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:57 pm

orathaic wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:00 pm
That is not an answer. Saying I prefer apples to oranges, doesn't mean I can't think oranges are good for me.

The question is, do you think it is a good think for any armed group to use their presence on election day as an attempt influence the result?
The fruit analogy doesn't work because you can have many different fruits as part of your diet but you can only have one set of election laws. My answer was perfectly sound. If you need it spelling out for you, I don't believe groups of civilians in towns should be armed, and I think democracy works better when there is no campaigning on the day of the vote. I do not think that campaigning on the day of the vote is abhorrent, only inferior. If your laws happen to permit civilians walking around armed then obviously campaigners can be armed otherwise you're guilty of a remarkable hypocrisy. Armed civilians in urban areas is a stupid idea, but the existence of an election does nothing to make this any more or less stupid.

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#38 Post by flash2015 » Sat Sep 26, 2020 1:39 am

Octavious wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:48 pm
flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:39 pm
You didn't address it.
Then tell me what on earth your mystery point actually is and I will. I am tired of trying to guess what particular direction your brain is going in.
It is very simple. Keep scrolling up page 2 of the current thread until you see the question that I posed to you that you did not answer (the question marks give it away). If you need more help, it is my first post on this page which contains a question mark. If you have trouble identifying a question mark follow the below link for a picture of one:

https://www.amazon.com/Question-Mark-St ... B07RMDYFF8

Let me know if you need any more help here.
flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:39 pm
With this specific statement I was just telling you this is the way it is, nothing more
that (or the) ship has sailed
phrase of ship
INFORMAL
used in reference to an opportunity that has passed or a situation that can no longer be changed.


Learn to speak English and maybe people will understand what you're trying to say. If you don't understand what these common phrases mean, don't use them.
Sorry, my bad. I had foolishly assumed we could have a discussion but all you want to do is play argument games.

It is a bold play to go full English pedant. You should really be careful you are right and you understand what is actually being said lest you make yourself look like an idiot and an arsehole (OK, the arsehole part has been clear for a while).

Now let's clarify what ship I am saying has sailed. The ship I am saying has sailed is the establishment of widespread mail in voting. Mail in voting cannot be stopped before (not after) it becomes widespread. That ship has sailed...as it is already widespread!

It takes a warped mind to think that when I said "that ship has sailed" I must mean that there is nothing that can stop vote-by-mail from continuing until presumably the heat death of the universe. If you have come to that conclusion I think you should invest in some remedial comprehension training.
flash2015 wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:39 pm
given you made the comparison without clarification, I will assume you are suggesting benefits democrats
Once again assuming has made an ass of you, it seems. You are remarkably bad at it, so it's probably best not to attempt it.
So out of all I said, you pick out this one sentence? I can only assume this means you can't challenge the rest.

If you truly believe you are being misunderstood, clarify! As it has been shown in multiple threads (including this one), I am not alone in believing you are not very clear.

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Re: Preparing for the worst

#39 Post by New England Fire Squad » Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:20 am

orathaic wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:28 pm
The only message at a polling place should be 'go vote'. Are you advocating for lúb Dems to arm themselves and stand as close as legally allowed to the local polling to places as a strategy for good political engagement in the next UK election?
Picturing Nick Clegg doing this made me literally lmao. Help me find it
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Re: Preparing for the worst

#40 Post by Octavious » Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:37 am

If my answers frustrate you so much, flash, why do you spend so much effort trying to find them? When you write utter bollocks that I have no interest in responding to, I don't respond. Life is far easier that way. I have simple rules in forum conversations. If responding amuses me I shall do so, and if I have some respect for the person making the post I will do so. If not I won't.

Now, you seem incapable of expressing your point you want addressed so I'm not going to do so. A shame, really. Against all expectations it may have turned out to be interesting.

Regarding the second point, it is not picking over minor details of language. It is your inability to use words to express your meaning. If I don't know what you mean I can't answer you. I can't engage in a meaningful conversation with anyone where I'm constantly second guessing what they might be trying to say because they don't understand what their words mean.

The rest of your final paragraph doesn't deserve a response other than a shrug. You have already stated that voting by mail allows the potential for intimidation and bias that voting in person does not. We have agreed that voting in person is the superior option. I'm not sure why you are continuing to discuss it.

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