Coronavirus

[Randomizer]

Trump confidence level is dropping. The local supermarkets are now having their shelves cleared of hand sanitizers, isopropyl alcohol, toilet paper, facial tissue, bottle water, and canned vegetables. There might be more but I didn't stick around that long.

Also limit on sanitizing sheets to disinfect shopping carts and I'm in a Republican state.

[Octavious]

Just popped to the supermarket for the weekly shop. Plenty of toilet roll around despite the media getting excited about it. Plenty of canned food as well, although a few of the multipacks had sold out (which isn't all that unusual).

Hand sanitiser has probably gone (no idea where it would be if I even wanted some) and a few cleaning products have gone.

Oh, most of the pasta and fresh eggs are gone. Quite how you're meant to stockpile eggs I have no idea, but I guess there's some logic to the pasta.

That's about it. Everything else is normal. The situation was far worse after it snowed last year.

[MajorMitchell]

Perhaps the trick with eggs is to stockpile them in pyramid arrangements? Large quantities of eggs didn't feature on the list of domestic supplies my Wonderful Fire Breathing MemSahib Her Serene Imperiousness Indoors lounging on a sofa eating cakes had me aquire & there were no unusual items or extra quantities of products & I simply added four dozen bottles of various single malts, Oban, Laphroaig and Laguvalin did feature prominently in that preventative measure. Naturally I decided it was better not to inform Her Serene Imperiousness Indoors lounging on a sofa eating cakes of my sage stock up of Scotch Whisky so that a mood of relative calm quiet confidence of order might prevail at HQ, in Barracks and on Grounds.

[Octavious]

Can't make cake without eggs. I'm tempted to get up early in the morning and buy several dozen. As long as I can find a massive basket to put them all in.

Still working my way through Christmas whisky. I reckon a wee dram every night as part of an antiviral regime is called for :)

[ChesterPerry]

I live in Torino, north-west Italy.
This is the graph of the covid progression in my country:

http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... e38d4138b1

Look at the fast growing curve. The problem is the Health Service, the hospitals are full and the doctors are going to be stressed and, some of them, ill. And the other sickness are still there: cancer is not disappeared, but now is harder to treat. This is the real challenge!

Now we all live closed in our home; pubs, cinemas and theatre are closed, and some factories are closing. No big problem with the food storages.

Next weeks Spain, France and Germany will be the next to close.

[MajorMitchell]

Randomiser .. I think most people would infer from your comment that "Trump confidence level dropping" that public confidence within the USA and probably elsewhere is dropping as a result of the public's assessment of Trumptoad's performance. Might I add that in my opinion Trumptoad's confidence in his abilities and performance appears to be unaffected. I hope but do not expect Trumptoad's unwavering personal confidence will provide comfort to the sick and others affected by the coronavirus pandemic

[Randomizer]

I think even Trump took a hit when he was forced to make two emergency speeches this week on the coronavirus after a month of downplaying its effect. Of course it may be due to an illness that he's been denying publicly ever since his unscheduled rushed medical exam that needed hospital equipment unavailable at the White House since his publicly acknowledge tests could have been done by a nurse at the While House.

I suppose we won't know the truth for decades later like with past presidential health issues.

[Randomizer]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavi ... 40931.html

Trump administration tried to get exclusive control of a Coronavirus vaccine for just the US.

[orathaic]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavi ... 40931.html

Trump administration tried to get exclusive control of a Coronavirus vaccine for just the US.

Does exclusive control mean so they can hand it over to a private company (which trump and kushner have invested in) and sell it back to the rest of the world?

[Randomizer]

Exclusive control meant the source company in Germany could only sell it to whomever the US wanted. Anyone wanting that version including Germany would have to negotiate with Trump or the US representative.

[Octavious]

Right, update on supermarkets.

Popped into a Bristol one on the way back home to pick up some eggs. Plenty of eggs, but significantly less of everything else. Seems pretty variable depending on location. City folk be flighty.

[peterlund]

One pint of Corona, please.

Ich möchte ein Corona, bitte.

Ett glas Corona, tack.

[peterlund]

So let's see if Trump, Biden and Sanders survives this, all old men having the highest risk of dying from it.

[Randomizer]

Mar-a-lago is considered a virus hot spot after several of Trump's last party guests tested positive. It's being deep cleaned before being used again.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/1 ... rus-130787

[orathaic]

So let's see if Trump, Biden and Sanders survives this, all old men having the highest risk of dying from it.

The death rate in men over 70 has not been released.
But the 70-79 estimated fatality rate is 8%. So if all three got it, and the chances are that 2 would survive and the 3rd would have a 75% chance of pulling through (with decent medical care).

Of course those numbers ignore the fact that this virus is more deadly to men.
If you assume all age ranges have an equal number of men and women (in the infections groups) you could bring that 70-79 age men up to 9.92%, which only drops the 3rd person's chance of survival from 75 to 70% (that assumption is definitely wrong, but it is the closest approximation I have based on the data available) it is unclear how the age/gender breakdown affects the cfr.

In horrible news, Italy now has more dead than China.

[peterlund]

Reports say smoking is a big factor that increases the death rate.

So being an old man that smokes seems to be a hit...

[Randomizer]

https://news.yahoo.com/justice-departme ... 54377.html

In these troubling times the US Justice Department wants the right in a national emergency to indefinitely lock people up without trial or even an arraignment before a judge to determine if there is a legal cause to hold them. You get arrested at the federal level and you would lose all legal rights. Supposedly this would extend up to a year after the emergency ends.

[Jamiet99uk]

The UK is now in almost complete lockdown.

All shops other than food shops are ordered to close. "Gatherings" of more than two people (unless they live together) are not permitted.

[orathaic]

The UK is now in almost complete lockdown.

All shops other than food shops are ordered to close. "Gatherings" of more than two people (unless they live together) are not permitted.

Great news, hopefully it isn't too late, as you can expect to see ~two weeks before the effect is felt in the case count/daily deaths

[Octavious]

Well, it couldn't have been any earlier and been effective. You need the public on board to have any hope of success, and the way it's been filtered in has allowed public opinion to get behind the measures before they get imposed. This is vital to maintaining good spirits, and has allowed people to come to terms with what's to come. The mood of people, from what I've seen recently, has been considerably more cheerful than usual. Whether that lasts as people experience friends and loved ones catching it remains to be seen.

As lock downs go it's not particularly harsh. The effect will be most people staying in their homes, but the reality is that the rules allow for you to pretty much go wherever you wish. I can still walk down to the local pub (as part of daily exercise) and pick up a takeaway pint, for example, or go for a bike ride through the local woods. There is no curfew, and unless you are particularly vulnerable no insistence that you stay in doors, although I imagine most people will.