Population growth and religion

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Jamiet99uk
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Re: Population growth and religion

#21 Post by Jamiet99uk » Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:49 pm

orathaic wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:28 am

On this issue there is actually very good data, and the results are pretty clear: https://youtu.be/ezVk1ahRF78

For those who don't have 13 minutes, the conclusion is that religion is not the deciding factor in family size, wealth and child mortality (as well as access to family planning) are the main contributing factors.
Before I clicked on this, I had a very strong feeling it would lead me to a video of Hans Rosling. He was a brilliant and articulate scholar and his recent death was a great loss to the world. Happily he left a great legacy of work. I commend his final book, "Factfulness" to anyone with an independent mind who wishes to better understand the world we live in.

And he is right. Education, the elimination of extreme poverty, equality for women, and infant mortality all have far more impact on family size than does religion. This is not a mere theory, it is very strongly supported by the data, as demonstrated by Hans Rosling in that wonderful lecture. I commend everyone to give it 13 minutes and watch it. It is a worthwhile investment of your time.
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Re: Population growth and religion

#22 Post by flash2015 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:43 pm

Carl Tuckerson wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:59 pm
Octavious wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:48 am
Both sides of the US debate should be wary of their contribution to atmosphere that encourages this nonsense. The recent Trumpian demonisation of those south of the border, and the stream of arguments the left keep sprouting about demographic change heralding in a new Democrat led future. I imagine it's very easy to believe in replacement when both sides of the debate are talking about it.
Do you realize one of these is in reaction to the other? When the political strategy of one half of the country is gleefully cheering on the shrinking share of white people in the country and openly importing a new voting base to invalidate the people already here, it is entirely natural and healthy to resist an invasion of your home by electing candidates who promise to be tough on border security.
Political pundits for at least the last two decades have been predicting the inevitable Democratic takeover drawing straight line predictions from historical demographic voting information. They were wrong in the past and they will likely continue to be wrong. It is kind of insulting to all involved to think that voting is done purely on racial lines. Hell, the junior republican senator from Texas himself is hispanic. Of course, if Trump continues his "whites vs. the rest" rhetoric he may bring on the voting based on racial lines which you seem most concerned about.
I don't think demonizing the people fleeing to the US is correct, but that's just a failure of those who are upset to recognize the cause of their problems, not an indication the problems don't exist. You have a right to be angry that you were knocked over even if the person that did so were shoved by someone else, and yet the political left in the US likes to pretend otherwise.
The demonizing of foreigners and non-whites is just an easy scapegoat for far more complex problems. The correct analogy - You have a right to be angry if you are being disenfranchised...but that doesn't give you the right to go around abusing random people.
orathaic, I have no idea how you can call the idea of demographic displacement a "racist conspiracy theory" when leftist political junkies crow and celebrate every single election that "demographics are destiny and they're on our side" and cheer on the likes of Texas turning Democratic because of an influx of pro-Democrat immigrant voters who are predominantly a different race from the (formerly) majority race in Texas. It is literally exactly what is happening, and many leftists and certainly almost all left-wing political strategists openly and cheerfully admit to it.
Nor do I see how you get off thinking that you have some kind of right or privilege to tell people that they have to accept displacement in their home. Even if you're willing to accept it for your own home, that doesn't mean you can force other people who have real concerns to shove it and accept what you want them to do.
Demographics are slowly changing and some pundits believe that democrats may get some permanent political advantage from it. They are probably wrong...but I don't see anything wrong with them making a theory about it.

What sort of bollocks is this? Who is getting displaced??? What white people being kicked out of their homes by latinos? Demographics have been changing for centuries and they will continue to change. What is the big deal? Concerned that they think "futbol" does not mean American football? Most of them are Americans just like you. The world is not going to end.
It's amazing that anyone can even wonder why people become violent and lash out against innocents with horrific mass shootings. What the fuck do you expect a cornered animal to do? Probably lay down and die. Bet you'd like that.
You are kidding me, right? You are seriously suggesting that white people are a poor oppressed minority? And on top of that, after the last two decades being told that terrorism is evil in **any scenario**, when "white people" use terrorism to fight against their non-existent oppression it is now an understandable reaction?
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Re: Population growth and religion

#23 Post by orathaic » Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:17 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:20 pm
Population growth is slowing significantly, and will cease to be a major issue by the latter half of this century.
I am not so optimistic. I suspect poverty will increase and high birth rates along with high death rates will return. We will see migration crises driven by climate change, and massive wealth inequality. But if development were to continue as it has for the past 60 years, that is entirely the trend we should expect.

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Re: Population growth and religion

#24 Post by orathaic » Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:07 am


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Re: Population growth and religion

#25 Post by MajorMitchell » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:07 pm

@flash. Did you not read my post properly ? Parts like.. "Here's a conundrum I struggle with" ? There's also the conflating of the general with the specific that I suggest you might be doing.

With only the sparse details you have provided of the specific case of your wife, consistent with what I have earlier posted my position regarding her specific case is: she tried to change the circumstances within her own country and suffered for that, so she has done what I indicated I would prefer citizens of disfunctional States to do, make an attempt to improve a disfunctional State.( As opposed to doing nothing, fleeing to a country of sanctuary and demanding refuge from that country of transit to a third more attractive destination ) . As a genuine refugee facing real threats to her life she deserves sanctuary & should she make an application for residence in the country in which I live, in my opinion it should be granted. That is consistent with the principle that any nation state has the right to decide who they allow to emigrate to their nation state and under what circumstances they allow people to emigrate to their nation state.

I am quite willing to help people, if they ask for assistance, or if I see a person I think might need it and I offer it and they then make the request which lets them decide whether to accept my assistance (I don't insist that people accept my assistance, they have a choice).
I dislike being dictated to, being told I must render assistance.

If a person wishes to dictate what I must, or must not do, they had best first make a matrimonial contract with me, and that position has already been occupied. Or have made some other contract with me that gives them specific powers to instruct me, and the instructions that they issue be within the powers I have granted them within the contract.
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Re: Population growth and religion

#26 Post by MajorMitchell » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:36 pm

.. continuing on.. so I hope I made it clear, if someone doesn't have an existing authority to dictate what I must or must not do, eg my Adorable Beautiful Fire Breathing MemSahib, an employer, the authorities of Government eg the police, and the command to me is a lawful command... Then ask.. don't issue commands to me if you don't have an existing authority to command me.
I'm often in the position of having authority to issue commands, directions to persons, but hard won experience has taught me that it is much easier to get compliance by showing respect and making a polite request, and giving a brief explanation of why the request is being made.

For example.. Rather than yelling a brusque command like: "Get out of here now !!! You, the bloody clown in the red shirt & your dumbass mates, get the f*** out of here now !!!"..
What I know gets better compliance is:. "Please move calmly to this (indicated by extended arm) exit, go outside and gather in the carpark, there is a minor fire in the auditorium which is being extinguished. Thank you for your cooperation Ladies & Gentlemen."

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Re: Population growth and religion

#27 Post by MajorMitchell » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:54 pm

So, returning to our hypothetical person who has fled from the county in which they faced genuine danger to another country and is now in comparative safety (the Gulags of Calais, a camp in West Germany).. if that person makes a request in the appropriate way to emigrate to the country in which I live, then that request should be dealt with promptly and with compassion.
However if I see that hypothetical person taking part in an angry mob & yelling that I and my fellow citizens MUST provide refuge for them NOW, and particularly if they bring a God into it..eg God commands that I and my fellow citizens MUST provide refuge for them NOW.. then my reaction is to have a distinct preference to refuse to comply. And I make no distinctions between Gods.
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Re: Population growth and religion

#28 Post by Randomizer » Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:36 pm

Middle class people with jobs and not needing to leave for economic reasons are now fleeing or preparing to leave a country where the current government has them scared of increasing violence. Even though they aren't in the targeted minority groups they are getting out.

The country they are fleeing from is the US.

https://news.yahoo.com/frightened-by-sh ... 46924.html

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Re: Population growth and religion

#29 Post by StevenC. » Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:15 pm

Randomizer wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:36 pm
Middle class people with jobs and not needing to leave for economic reasons are now fleeing or preparing to leave a country where the current government has them scared of increasing violence. Even though they aren't in the targeted minority groups they are getting out.

The country they are fleeing from is the US.

https://news.yahoo.com/frightened-by-sh ... 46924.html
This article is one giant exaggeration. There are millions of Americans living abroad for various reason and frankly I'm not convinced that there's a huge movement of Americans out of the country because of "muh orange man bad" or even because of mass shootings.

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Re: Population growth and religion

#30 Post by orathaic » Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:23 pm

Side note : https://youtu.be/sEGUrcseJo8

If it strikes you that the government and UN refugee agency is not the most efficient of organisation. Then you can look at 'illegal' immigrants as entrepreneurs, using the free market (smugglers) to side step the state.

Is this not a valued attribute among Americans?

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Re: Population growth and religion

#31 Post by flash2015 » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:01 pm

MajorMitchell wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:07 pm
@flash. Did you not read my post properly ? Parts like.. "Here's a conundrum I struggle with" ? There's also the conflating of the general with the specific that I suggest you might be doing.

With only the sparse details you have provided of the specific case of your wife, consistent with what I have earlier posted my position regarding her specific case is: she tried to change the circumstances within her own country and suffered for that, so she has done what I indicated I would prefer citizens of disfunctional States to do, make an attempt to improve a disfunctional State.( As opposed to doing nothing, fleeing to a country of sanctuary and demanding refuge from that country of transit to a third more attractive destination ) . As a genuine refugee facing real threats to her life she deserves sanctuary & should she make an application for residence in the country in which I live, in my opinion it should be granted. That is consistent with the principle that any nation state has the right to decide who they allow to emigrate to their nation state and under what circumstances they allow people to emigrate to their nation state.
I went back to your post just to make sure I wasn't misunderstanding...and it is as objectionable and callous after multiple readings as it was the first time. You are just covering it with what I would call "weasel words" to try to make your opinion sound more palatable than it really is.

Let's get some facts straight here - Western countries take in a very tiny minority of the total refugee population. Out of the top 10 countries with refugees either as a percentage of the population or total number of refugees there is only one Western country in the top 10 by percentage (Sweden) and one by total refugees (Germany). If you look at the top 20 there is perhaps one or two more Western countries. We can go through the detailed numbers if you like. The idea that refugees 'en masse' are not trying to find refuge in neighbouring countries is a myth and I believe the numbers in the neighbouring countries likely under-reporting the real size of the problem at least from my experience in Thailand (e.g. you proverbially can't "swing a cat" without hitting a Burmese person yet the reported number of refugees is supposedly relatively low there). And many of these countries that do host large numbers of refugees don't really have the resources to handle them so the refugees can live in horrible conditions. It is understandable that some of these refugees may try and find a better life elsewhere. It seems like you are saying "Those uppity refugees. They should be thankful they are alive! How dare they think they can try to create a better life for themselves and their families!".

You say that these people should try and fix conditions back home first before even considering fleeing. What do you expect Syrians **to do**? Or the Rohingya? Or any number of people fleeing conflict (just 5 countries account for 67% of the refugees)? And you suggest that they are being selfish by having children (either by choice or by chance - I don't expect everyone has the same access to birth control as we do). Are you perhaps suggesting that they shouldn't have sex at all? Or should they be having more abortions perhaps?

Many of these countries have problems that are intractable. They haven't had the time to go through and build the institutions that we have (often due to colonialism) so even if the current despotic ruler is deposed he/she is often replaced with another (see Arab Spring). A big part of affecting real change in many of these countries is by bringing knowledge and training back from overseas which is likely helped by a reasonable sized expat community. Many leaders that have affected or attempted to affect change in Asia did just that (e.g. Gandhi, Ho Chi Minh, Chiang Kai Shek, Lee Kuan Yew, Aung San Suu Kyi and many more).

My wife was "lucky" for want of a better word to be becoming an adult at a time and place when there was an opportunity for real change in her country. Unfortunately they didn't succeed and that window of opportunity closed and the country reverted back to a military dictatorship where everyone was in fear of even a suggestion of criticizing the government. The people after her didn't have "the opportunities" she and her compatriots did. I don't understand what you are expecting the average person to actually do in this situation.
I am quite willing to help people, if they ask for assistance, or if I see a person I think might need it and I offer it and they then make the request which lets them decide whether to accept my assistance (I don't insist that people accept my assistance, they have a choice).
I dislike being dictated to, being told I must render assistance.

If a person wishes to dictate what I must, or must not do, they had best first make a matrimonial contract with me, and that position has already been occupied. Or have made some other contract with me that gives them specific powers to instruct me, and the instructions that they issue be within the powers I have granted them within the contract.
What refugees have the power to dictate to YOU? Note that many refugees, especially in poorer countries, may spend years or even decades in camps...with little hope of a better life. The only real power they have is through the activists which advocate on their behalf.

The whole thing about Calais - I thought the UK must be being overrun with refugees as they avoid going to France. In fact, France host three times as many refugees as the UK (~360K to ~120K). If we go down the list there are at least ten European countries that have a bigger refugee burden as a percentage of the population than the UK. If anything

Again, I am not arguing that countries don't have the right to choose how many refugees they accept or not. I am only arguing that trying to demonize refugees just for having the audacity to want a better life is horribly callous and wrong...which is what I believe you are doing here.

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Re: Population growth and religion

#32 Post by orathaic » Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:12 am

Let's get some facts straight here - Western countries take in a very tiny minority of the total refugee population
And it is worth noting the Western powers are sometimes directly responsible for refugee crises.

Syria being used as a pawn in a post-cold War game (between Russia/Iran and US/Saudi Arabia), is perhaps the best example. Libya might be another, though I suspect there are more Syrian refugees than Libyan; I haven't looked up the numbers.

And sure Iran and Saudi Arabia could very well have played their own game without non-regional powers selling them weapons, sending in troops, and generally making a mess (rather than using the UN and peacekeeping forces to stabilise the situation). But as it stands Turkey and Iraq host many many more Syrian refugees than the US or western Europe.


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Re: Population growth and religion

#34 Post by orathaic » Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:04 am

StevenC. wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:36 pm
orathaic wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:14 am
@Mitchel, I reject the concept of borders as a legitimate and moral system. They exist, but their legitimacy has no solid philisophically or moral grounding. You have yet to offer any arguments to base such a system on.

And there it is.
OK, let us look at this from another perspective, either you are the inheritors of your ancestors, or you are not. Either you are responsible for the genocide, rape, displacement, broken treaties, exploitation (see: slavery) and oppression (see:poverty) which made the land you currently live in what it is today, or you are not entitled to claim that 6 generations of your family living in it is an excuse to stop other less fortunate families from laying claim to similar rights.

It is fairly simple, I do not believe in holding the current generation responsible for the sins of their ancestors, likewise I donvt believe they have any special status just because they descended from a particularly successful bunch of murderers.

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