MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

[Vecna]

I was not RBed. Got no message about being RBed.

Seems mafia are still trying really hard to dodge the tracker/JOAT.

Teacher would know full well it normally is completely optimal to janitor N1 (beause for the rest of the game, town is going to be suspicious of any PR claim). Instead they appear to have chosen a completely safe approach to avoid getting caught by tracking.

[BismarckAlive]

Hi all,
4:35pm here in sunny eastern seaboard! Should be online now (sometimes on/off for various errands/dinner) for the next 8 hours or so.
Feeling better gradually, with scars/pain subsiding with each passing hour and rest. Thanks for your kind thoughts.

I like examining the hard evidence of actions. In particular, the EOD voting, and the night activities. EOD2 was exciting and chaotic, especially the last 20 minutes or so (which I missed BTW because I was sleeping but have caught up on). But it was the best session for analysis, to which I now turn.

Someone already observed some of this from the point of view of Jamiet99uk and his voting, but I focused in on the Peter wagon. From about 20mins out to about 5 mins out, the vote was static with Teacher 8 and Peter 7. Now the Peter wagon had the following people through that time:

Vecna (the starter of the wagon)
Me (I published my analysis - voted and went to sleep)
Damo666 (parked the vote there and disappeared)
Worcej
Bozotheclown
Jamiet99uk
Teacher2

What is interesting is what happened in the chaos - that frantic last couple of minutes where the Peter wagon went down, and the Jamie wagon rose, at such intensity that if the EOD had been a few seconds later, it would be Jamie lynched.

Now, we know that Teacher2 was the Mafia Head - Ninja. Somewhere in the thread somebody pointed out that in other Mafia games, the first couple of days the Mafia team voted together, and that made sense to me, since in a field of 18, a block of 3 voting together could be instrumental in winning the vote. So hindsight is great. Here we have Ninja on 8 leading the Peter wagon on 7. What probability that the whole Mafia team is on the Peter wagon?

But in the chaos BB formed the Jamie wagon which got somebody else, Bozo left Peter and joined the Teacher2 wagon, Vecna formed a wagon on me which went nowhere.

As time ran out, first Teacher2, then Vecna and Worcej went to Jamie, leaving the Peter wagon.

I repeat - in the heat of the moment(when the truth often is revealed), Bozo went to Teacher2, and Vecna, Worcej and Teacher2 went to Jamie when the Peter wagon had clearly failed.

That is my scum team: Teacher2 (fortuituously RIP), Vecna and Worcej. They moved in desperation to the wagon that had the higher chance to defeat the Teacher2 wagon.

That D2 result is consistent with my analysis of the DrCJG kill. DrCJG (RIP) honed in on Yav (RIP), Worcej, Peter and Vecna. Voted Vecna.

I now turn to the N2 events. Because both the Traitor and the Ninja were dead, that meant there were now only 6 PR left:

* Tracker
* JOAT
* Doctor - Peter claimed this, saying he visited FoxCastle on N1. If so, where did Peter go N2 and what was the result? Did Fox confirm the N1 visit?
* Janitor/Ninja
* Roleblocker - BB claimed he was RB'ed
* SK

Only 1 kill means to me that one of RB and SK was thwarted last night (there is no reason why they didn't both attack someone - Mafia are desperate with only 2 left, and SK needs multiple deaths everynight (as chaotic as possible) for his win to become a possibility). That means either our Doctor or JOAT healed a possible victim.

From reading the thread, DoubtingThomas (#1460) and Damo666(#1492 and later interaction with Fox about it) both thought their N2 deaths were probable/likely/highly likely. They certainly made some accusatory remarks leading into EON2.

Were they/one of them visited?
Saved by Peter / JOAT?

And, if somebody is saved, that means they were killed. Once saved, their memory of both is wiped, so the victim will not get a PM. Only the saver gets a message, and the would-be killer also gets a message.

It is now 5:55pm, and I will be out a while. I hope to have those answers to continue my N2 analysis. It may lead to a slam-dunk mafia lynch.

[Vecna]

What I think happened;

Mafia has only two people left, and is scared and on the defence. They probably chose not to take any actions, because its quite likely their members are in the spotlight.

After the Teacher lynch there where 14 people left. That means the tracker has 13 people to choose from, of which 2 are scum. If the scum would roleblock and kill, thats 1 in 6 odds either of them get caught. If the Joat would also track, those odds become way higher still.

We've all seen Teacher be super scared of the tracker. He did this math. He did the full claim of the tracker. You've seen him do the statistics in thread, he likes numbers. We saw there was no roleblock and janitoring N1. The entire mafia strategy right now is on evading the trackers, and they probably wouldve preferred not killing, over getting another one of their numbers caught and pretty much having no chance left to win anymore.

Brainbomb is bullshitting yet again. There is no way the mafia would go through a useless roleblock with such high odds of getting caught. Teacher wouldve put a stop to it. Much safer to not RB/Janitor and just let the uncatchable ninja do the kills without odds of getting caught. That means one of your members can also claim RB;d in order to appear more towny.

##vote Brainbomb

Im not sure if he's paired with Worcey, or Jamiet, or some other guy. But I want to string him up. The way he danced about the Teacher wagon and my questioning also made me very suspect of him. As did his response afterwards. The way he instantly jumped onto conclusions felt like it was fueled on fear.

[Vecna]

Town
Vecna
Peterlund
Worcej
Foxcastle
Squiggs (I read his old games and found it interesting)

Null
Bismark
Flash

Scum
Thomas
Jamie
Yavuz
Rdrivera? (Hes very forgettable so far)
Teacher

Brainbombs Reads on P42. Townread PeterLund. Scumread Teacher

Now watch what happens in the last hour:

On page 60 he Starts a vanity wagon on Rdrivera. Kinda odd if its between a townread and a scumread.

On the same page he then suddenly states that all scum are on both wagons "Especially if teacher is town".

Then he jumps onto PeterLund with the statement "that were all insane for fearing ties 30 minutes out". Smokescreen reasoning to jump on your townread while your scumread is a viable option.

Now, im not gonna transcribe everything, but read along here: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... =brainbomb

Skip forward to his posts on page 60 and 61 there. You can still see him straining for reasons to push the wagon onto PeterLund for a long time. He tries to find any and all weird reasons to do so.

"Im more willing to follow vecna here even tho I find peter towny". Especially this quote rubbed me the wrong way. So I started questioning brainbomb about his inconsistencies.

Even though I was scumreading PeterLund over Teacon, I noticed the weirdness in how Brainbomb was approaching this situation. Go back and reread our interactions on Page 61-64. Important

After I attack him on this, he suddenly switches. It really looks like he understood how scummy his behaviour was looking and he was switching to the bus mentality. He spots Teacher online, and calls him out on it. Almost like he's yelling for him to fake-claim. Then he does, but he still calls him out on it. Committed to the bus? Afraid to switch and be caught alongside it? This is the only thing giving me pause, but it doesnt wash away all the other stuff.

Then he sees me make a move on Bismarck and he joins in. But instead of going with me he goes in on Jamiet. Perhaps he wanted to sacrefise his lesser teammate Jamiet (the Janitor probably if scum together). Perhaps he just wanted to get rid of soemone thatll keep voting him the rest of the game. Jamiet doing the weird cop claim might indicate he was willing to sacrifice himself to make Teacher look better. Not go down without some resistance to save Teacher and make brainbomb and Teacher look better in the process. Ofcourse this wouldnt work for the long term though since theres still a veteran out there that wouldve cc'd him.

What happened here exactly, I do not know. I have plenty of suspicions. But what I do know is that Brainbomb is looking extremely fishy throughout all of it.

After Teacher flips he gives off the impression of incredibly panicky. He starts throwing suspicions my way. He starts digging into Teacher's posts - mainly to clear himself - because ofcourse Teacher has made sure there will be sufficiently convincing scumreads in his iso to make his teammates look good. The fact Brainbomb instantly goes to dig those up, speaks of a certain mindset. Not to look for Teacher's teammates, but to clear himself and make himself look better. More scummy indicators.

All in all, the roleblock claims, the behaviour around Teacher, the constant chaos-sowing play. It all points to one thing.

LYNCH FUCKING BRAINBOMB

[Jamiet99uk]

Brainbomb is once again refusing to answer sensible questions. I like Vecna's case.

@Vecna: What do you think of my purportment that Doubting Thomas is the Serial Killer, because at Sod today he expressed (possibly fake) surprise that there was only one kill, but gave away that he somehow knew it was the SK that had failed to kill.

[Vecna]

Yeah such odd statements have happened before. We should probably take note of them and keep them in mind when we turn to hunting the SK. I dont really think Doubting Thomas is gonna pull of this playstyle as SK, but then slip on such a stupid detail though - much more likely to be a "speaking-his-mind" towny that just makes an assumption and throws it out there.

Hunting for the SK is going to be a true pain in the ass regardless. I feel we should just remove the scumteam and take it from there, and maybe/hopefully while lynching scummy fuckers we get lucky and hit the SK.

[Jamiet99uk]

Fair enough.

##Vote Braimbomb

[Jamiet99uk]

For the bot, with correct spelling:

##Vote Brainbomb

[damo666]

I see Bismarck's scum team coincides with my top scum pair (Vecna Worcej). I hereby remove Bismarck from my scum pair list. Unless Vecna is Hollywooding in the extreme I must eliminate Vecna/Brainbomb. This leaves Worcej/Brainbomb as the only viable alternative to my top pair. So, either way Sauce is not getting let off the hook (sounds nigh on impossible anyway!).

[Vecna]

Yes if we lynch brainbomb and he flips scum, Worcej is definitely a contender for tomorrow (even though I dont really scumread his play, but the correlations there are pretty present).

[damo666]

I'll be very interested to see how Sauce votes.

[Jamiet99uk]

I was not RBed. Got no message about being RBed.

Seems mafia are still trying really hard to dodge the tracker/JOAT.

Teacher would know full well it normally is completely optimal to janitor N1 (beause for the rest of the game, town is going to be suspicious of any PR claim). Instead they appear to have chosen a completely safe approach to avoid getting caught by tracking.

Just to clarify, Vecna, are you accusing Peterlund of being scum?

[flash2015]

I have this equation:

NOT ((Brainbomb is not town) OR (JamietUK is not town)) == true

And I keep on getting "System Error". I don't understand Brainbomb starting the Jamie bandwagon right before D2 ending, then immediately after saying "My bad, Jamie's town". This may be my L0 understanding of the game, but I don't see how lynching Jamie for info would have been helpful for town. Brainbomb has too much experience to have decided to lynch $RANDOM target.

It could be that Brainbomb knows that Jamie should be lynched, but is holding off to see if there is a slip by Jamie which could provide more information.

I still feel I should apply Occam's razor here (perhaps Hanlon's razor for Jamie :) ). Brainbomb, despite his facade, takes this game very seriously...and his true feelings sometimes come through. I think that at least part of his vociferous response to his possible lynching on day 1 is that it would have hurt his pride, the genius of Mafia, to be taken out as Mafia (or possibly SK) on the first day. So let's get this wagon going:

##VOTE Brainbomb

[brainbomb]

Wagons form on scum so fluidly with such little resistance.
*cowers in fear of letting scunsquad down*

[flash2015]

If there is some overarching strategy I am not seeing you are going to have to explain it to me...but no more than two syllables per word (more is too complex for me) and definitely no swear words that may damage my fragile temperament.

Part of the game is to convince people of your reads - no point correctly picking out the scum but not being able to lynch any and letting town lose.

[DoubtingThomas]

##VOTE JAMIE

gotta get rid of a potential scum/sk/dumb townie to make game easier

[dargorygel]

##GM NOTE
Jamie asked:
"If the SK tries to nightkill the Veteran, and the Veteran has activated, does the Veteran kill the SK?"

Yes

[damo666]

Jamie you seem to have DT rather riled.

[dargorygel]

Vote Count 3.1
Brainbomb (3) vecna, jamiet99uk, flash2015
Jamiet99uk (2) peterlund, DoubtingThomas
Worcej (2) damo666, bozotheclown
Damo666 (1) squiggs44
Squiggs44 (1) brainbomb

0 endvotes
Presently, brainbomb is highest on the lynchlist
Many, many hours remain in the day.
Everyone has posted.
BismarckAlive, Foxcastle, rdrivera2005, worcej have not voted.

[rdrivera2005]

I agree with Vecna on the analysis he made that scum is on the defence. They lost Ninja and town has all his PR (and three of them can catch scum: Tracker, JOAT and Vet). That´s a good explanation for not using the Janitor D1 and after D2 they lost their Ninja and will be exposed on NK and RB..
About the roleblock, I already discussed a bit with Brain and I think either scum decided to not use it or they just used on his NK target D1 and probably also on D2 if Yav was Mafia killed. Also, Yav killing is clearly a PR hunt, as I don't see any decent Mafia/SK killing him out of fear (sorry Yav)

The conclusion about Brain being scum isn't that clear to me. I agree that Brain is annoying and talks sooooo much that he has town/scum reads on probably every other player around. I think Brain is lying about the RBs and the Doc claim, there is no point to scum to roleblock him and not kill him. If they believed for a moment he is the Doc he would have been killed. But fake claiming Doc at night isn´t such a bad thing for town and fake claiming roleblock isn´t also a capital offense when it's pretty obvious it´s fake.

Anyway, I still think Brain could be the SK and making Brain and worcej or damo the main wagons could give us interesting information. I already stated my suspicions on both at EON and worcej did nothing to improve my impression on him today other than some jokes and trying to look participating, exactly what a newbie scum under pressure would do. He didn't gave reads or place a vote either.

##vote worcej