MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

[flash2015]

@Foxcastle, why again should we be considering "no lynch" D1? There is no guarantee we are any closer to finding Mafia/SK by day 2...so if we don't lynch D1 we are just throwing away a 5/18 chance of catching someone.

[brainbomb]

##Vote Foxcastle

[flash2015]

##Vote Foxcastle

[Foxcastle]

@Foxcastle, why again should we be considering "no lynch" D1? There is no guarantee we are any closer to finding Mafia/SK by day 2...so if we don't lynch D1 we are just throwing away a 5/18 chance of catching someone.

Because my general view of Day 1 is that it's just guessing based on almost nothing useful. We're joking and fronting for at least the first 24 hours, and then trying to get serious about finding some small indication that anyone might be scum. There's a lot of meta-reading to try to figure out if someone is playing like they usually do or if differences in play mean they're scum. So basically, I think we're more likely to lynch a townie than mafia on Day 1 [NB: I have been wrong about this in multiple games], and that it's worth saving a townie death for later and going into Day 2 with at least one hard data point (that whoever the NK is was town, or in this case, information about the NK and the SK).

You say it's a 5/18 chance of catching someone (6/18, really, considering the SK), and I say it's a 12/18 chance that at least 2 townies will die (3 if the SK doesn't hit scum).

[Foxcastle]

Like your brie, those votes stink.

(Of course I disagree with those votes, but I really just wanted to make a cheese pun, there... it was too gouda opportunity to pass up.)

[brainbomb]

Like your brie, those votes stink.

(Of course I disagree with those votes, but I really just wanted to make a cheese pun, there... it was too gouda opportunity to pass up.)

Git gud

[flash2015]

@Foxcastle, why again should we be considering "no lynch" D1? There is no guarantee we are any closer to finding Mafia/SK by day 2...so if we don't lynch D1 we are just throwing away a 5/18 chance of catching someone.

Because my general view of Day 1 is that it's just guessing based on almost nothing useful. We're joking and fronting for at least the first 24 hours, and then trying to get serious about finding some small indication that anyone might be scum. There's a lot of meta-reading to try to figure out if someone is playing like they usually do or if differences in play mean they're scum. So basically, I think we're more likely to lynch a townie than mafia on Day 1 [NB: I have been wrong about this in multiple games], and that it's worth saving a townie death for later and going into Day 2 with at least one hard data point (that whoever the NK is was town, or in this case, information about the NK and the SK).

You say it's a 5/18 chance of catching someone (6/18, really, considering the SK), and I say it's a 12/18 chance that at least 2 townies will die (3 if the SK doesn't hit scum).

If we don't lynch, the chances of picking up at least one mafia or serial killer on the first night is roughly 1/4

i.e. 1 - 17/18 (mafia) * 14/18 (serial killer) = 238/324 = 43/162 ~= 1/4

If we do lynch the change increases to 1/2

i.e. 1 - 14/18 (town) * 16/17 * 13/17 = 2704/5202 = 1352/2601 ~= 1/2

I can't see how it makes sense to throw that extra chance away.

[flash2015]

@Foxcastle, why again should we be considering "no lynch" D1? There is no guarantee we are any closer to finding Mafia/SK by day 2...so if we don't lynch D1 we are just throwing away a 5/18 chance of catching someone.

Because my general view of Day 1 is that it's just guessing based on almost nothing useful. We're joking and fronting for at least the first 24 hours, and then trying to get serious about finding some small indication that anyone might be scum. There's a lot of meta-reading to try to figure out if someone is playing like they usually do or if differences in play mean they're scum. So basically, I think we're more likely to lynch a townie than mafia on Day 1 [NB: I have been wrong about this in multiple games], and that it's worth saving a townie death for later and going into Day 2 with at least one hard data point (that whoever the NK is was town, or in this case, information about the NK and the SK).

You say it's a 5/18 chance of catching someone (6/18, really, considering the SK), and I say it's a 12/18 chance that at least 2 townies will die (3 if the SK doesn't hit scum).

If we don't lynch, the chances of picking up at least one mafia or serial killer on the first night is roughly 1/4

i.e. 1 - 17/18 (mafia) * 14/18 (serial killer) = 238/324 = 43/162 ~= 1/4

If we do lynch the change increases to 1/2

i.e. 1 - 14/18 (town) * 16/17 * 13/17 = 2704/5202 = 1352/2601 ~= 1/2

I can't see how it makes sense to throw that extra chance away.

Typo that should be 1 - 13/18 (town) * 16/17 * 13/17 = 2704/5202 = 1352/2601 ~= 1/2

[dargorygel]

Vote Count 1.2
Brainbomb (3) Jamiet99uk, yavuzovic, thedipplayer
DrCJG (3)RagingIke297, teacher2, worcej
Foxcastle (1) flash2015
Vecna (1)Peterlund
Teacher2 (1) DrCJG
Jamiet99uk (2) flash2015, Vecna
Flash2015(1) bozotheclown
No-lynch (1) Foxcastle

currently no one is set to be lynched.

endvotes 0/10

[flash2015]

Because my general view of Day 1 is that it's just guessing based on almost nothing useful. We're joking and fronting for at least the first 24 hours, and then trying to get serious about finding some small indication that anyone might be scum. There's a lot of meta-reading to try to figure out if someone is playing like they usually do or if differences in play mean they're scum. So basically, I think we're more likely to lynch a townie than mafia on Day 1 [NB: I have been wrong about this in multiple games], and that it's worth saving a townie death for later and going into Day 2 with at least one hard data point (that whoever the NK is was town, or in this case, information about the NK and the SK).

You say it's a 5/18 chance of catching someone (6/18, really, considering the SK), and I say it's a 12/18 chance that at least 2 townies will die (3 if the SK doesn't hit scum).

If we don't lynch, the chances of picking up at least one mafia or serial killer on the first night is roughly 1/4

i.e. 1 - 17/18 (mafia) * 14/18 (serial killer) = 238/324 = 43/162 ~= 1/4

If we do lynch the change increases to 1/2

i.e. 1 - 14/18 (town) * 16/17 * 13/17 = 2704/5202 = 1352/2601 ~= 1/2

I can't see how it makes sense to throw that extra chance away.

Typo that should be 1 - 13/18 (town) * 16/17 * 13/17 = 2704/5202 = 1352/2601 ~= 1/2

Third time lucky. Same approximate result:

1 - 13/18 (town) * 16/17 * 13/17 = 1 - 2704/5202 = 1 - 1352/2601 = 1249/2601 ~= 1/2

[flash2015]

##CALL GM You didn't pickup the recent vote changes?

[Foxcastle]

I'll take a closer look at the math when I'm not on my phone.

I don't actually expect us to no-lynch, there's never enough support for it.

[dargorygel]

endvotes 0/10

Vote Count 1.2
Brainbomb (3) Jamiet99uk, yavuzovic, thedipplayer
DrCJG (3)RagingIke297, teacher2, worcej
Foxcastle (2) brainbomb, flash2015
Vecna (1)Peterlund
Teacher2 (1) DrCJG
Jamiet99uk (1) Vecna
Flash2015(1) bozotheclown
No-lynch (1) Foxcastle

currently no one is set to be lynched.

endvotes 0/10

[dargorygel]

##GM THING
Apologies for the miss-representation of the vote count. My only excuse is that not enough people are +1ing the GM's... so we lack... some... sort... of... myst... ical... energy...

[brainbomb]

No ties, no 'no lynches', id rather lynch a PR than no lynch. Thats how extreme I am.

##Vote brainbomb

Someone has to die, lest we never solve thine game.

I volunteer as tribute

[flash2015]

@Foxcastle, to put it another way four wrong guesses on D1,D2,D3,D4 could lose us the game. Not taking a guess D1 and making three wrong guesses doesn't guarantee us that we get another chance D5.

[brainbomb]

@Foxcastle, to put it another way four wrong guesses on D1,D2,D3,D4 could lose us the game. Not taking a guess D1 and making three wrong guesses doesn't guarantee us that we get another chance D5.

Its better to fundamentally argue this point than becoming annoyed to the point of killing someone who is making an idiotic strategy suggestion.

Have you ever met ezio?
Hes this creature that loves to no lynch

I wrote a song about it
https://soundcloud.com/mothlion/webdip- ... lynch-brah

[brainbomb]

Im suprised jamie is having darg do the vote counts. Normally jamie does them.

[teacher2]

Im suprised jamie is having darg do the vote counts. Normally jamie does them.

Ummmm.... Jamie's playing?

@Brain: Talk to me about your self-vote?

@Fox: Thoughts on why the two votes stink? Seems defensive? Also, while I sometimes advocate nolynch, we cant do it in a game with this many specialty, potentially killing roles (SK, ninja, vet, JOAT). Its too unlikely to put-off lylo.

@DrCJG: I know we've been cute and traded votes, but do you have any thoughts?

##CallGM: Can we get a simple yes or no on the Skynet?

[teacher2]

teacher has focused on the game like he did at the past games. Should I townread him this early?

@Brain: Why did you quote this without comment?

@Yavu: Thanks for the opportunity -- I obv!town in any alignment, and almost any role, so do what you will.