M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[kgray]

Mostly VCA. I figure scum had to be on the xorx wagon.

If that assumption is wrong, I don't see how we can catch scum anyway, so...

If damo is scum, I think someone was bussing him D1, especially with mafia day chat.

So, lynch damo and find out?

Why does damo need to flip to find out if scum was on his wagon? Do you think it's that much more likely that scum busses their teammate damo than scum votes for town damo?

[bozotheclown]

Chaqa saying he was too busy at D1 EOD to vote to lynch damo just does not seem true, because if he had time to make these 2 posts at 4 minutes and 2 minutes before EOD, he could easily have voted for damo instead of pointing out we were likely to tie and that he was OK with either wagon. If Chaqa had voted for damo, it would have put damo up 6-3, and the tie he was worried about would not have happened. It seems to me he was trying to get a damo voter to switch to xorxes.

Bozo I don't understand this argument from you. How is what you did different? You posted twice with a minute left and were also voting xorxes and could have switched to damo.

I did not express concern about a tie or say I was OK with either wagon. I did not know if damo was online to tie the vote, but Chaqa seemed to expect damo to vote. However, I realize Chaqa could have just done what I did and wait to see if damo would show up.

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE damo

I still find it hard to believe damo was not deliberately waiting to vote at the last minute D1, his D2 analysis did not make any sense to me, and part of that D2 analysis was that Nephthys was town, yet damo voted for Nephthys as soon as he could put Nephthys ahead of his wagon.

[bozotheclown]

So this is the real question. Chaqa being fine with both wagons, scumreading both. Was there. Knew damo's vote would tie it. Yet did not change from Xorxes to damo to untie it.

bozo and Foodcoats were also there and also couldve easily intied it in their last minute comments.

Why did none of you?

damo tied the vote with under a minute left in the day.

The 1 minute thing is a bit spurious. With 8 mins to go it was 4-4 with Xorxes and I both on solo vote wagons so it was fairly obvious at that stage it would very likely go to 5-5 so why did nobody jump? Possible reasons:
a) not online
b) assumed Neph would switch
c) didn't want to out themselves as likely scum (especially if it were TvS)

damo said here that it was obvious the D1 vote would go to 5-5, yet he maintains he barely got his vote in on time.

[damo666]

If damo is scum, I think someone was bussing him D1, especially with mafia day chat.

So, lynch damo and find out?

Why does damo need to flip to find out if scum was on his wagon? Do you think it's that much more likely that scum busses their teammate damo than scum votes for town damo?

My flip would not reveal my voters' alignment would it?

[damo666]

damo tied the vote with under a minute left in the day.

The 1 minute thing is a bit spurious. With 8 mins to go it was 4-4 with Xorxes and I both on solo vote wagons so it was fairly obvious at that stage it would very likely go to 5-5 so why did nobody jump? Possible reasons:
a) not online
b) assumed Neph would switch
c) didn't want to out themselves as likely scum (especially if it were TvS)

damo said here that it was obvious the D1 vote would go to 5-5, yet he maintains he barely got his vote in on time.

Obvious to anyone monitoring the vote at the time. The last time I looked the vote was something like 5-2 and I didn't think I was in danger. I made sure I was able to look at the vote count just prior EOD and naturally seeing I was 5-4 ahead I switched to Xorxes. I really don't see what is so strange about it. I think it is completely NAI.

[damo666]

I have come to the conclusion only one of

Bozo Bunny Chaqa Tom is NOT scum

Lynching one of these, not me, is the path to victory.

[BunnyGo]

I decided to just do a reread instead of my planned ISOs. Without any confirmed scum, this wasn’t super enlightening, but here are my thoughts:

It does seem unlikely that the D1 votes were TvT but I’m not sure I’m willing to stake the game on the assumption that it couldn’t have been. That’s how my first game ended and we lost. So while I do think damo is scum, I think it makes the most sense to look for people who could be scum regardless of damo’s alignment. The two people who fit that most are Tom and Bunny.

Re: Tom

• Tom voting for damo because damo came up with a weird “policy vote” metric that resulted in him voting for xorxes. I very strongly believe that damo did not think anyone would follow him onto xorxes for such an obviously non-serious reason, and I likewise do not believe Tom thought anyone was likely to follow damo onto xorxes for this reason. So I find it really odd that Tom had such a strong reaction to damo’s vote and assumed he was specifically coming up with a reason to start a xorxes wagon. I think if damo is scum, scum!Tom could have been finding an easy way to put a vote on his teammate damo very early in the game where he had plenty of time to move off. If damo is town, I think Tom could have been sowing early suspicion on damo and buddying xorxes. I really can’t see a reason for town!Tom to scumread damo so hard for that vote.

• Tom’s hard defending of xorxes also weirds me out a bit. I don’t see how he was so confident in his read of xorxes and why he seemed to brush off the arguments brought against him, mostly just by saying that xorxes would be more careful as scum. I think it’s likely that Tom knew xorxes was town and was trying to pocket him while keeping around a big target for a future mislynch.

• I really don’t see a townie reason for Tom specifically to wifom about why I wasn’t killed. The same argument he made about me being townread applies to him too. He also brought up the question of why rdr and summit were the NK, but he didn’t draw any conclusions from that line of reasoning. Overall it didn’t seem like he was using the NK targets to try to figure anything out, but rather trying to cause confusion over the night kill targets. He even said himself that he’s usually killed early, so by bringing up this line of questioning I think he was trying to preemptively get people to shrug off any suspicions of himself based on that fact that he wouldn’t be the kill.

Re: NephyGo

• I won’t bother writing anything else about Neph because I’ve made my thoughts on him pretty clear, although I’d love to discuss them with anyone who disagrees because scum!Neph makes so much sense to me and I’m not sure why others aren’t seeing that.

• Bunny’s entrance to this game has not made me even question my read of Neph’s alignment. I will admit that Bunny and I tend to clash and I could be reacting to my frustration with him, but there are some objective facts that I find really suspicious about Bunny:

• He comes in with questions and that’s fine, as presumably he needs to catch up. Then, the first thing he says he read was (half of) my ISO. First of all, if that’s really the first thing he read, that’s nuts. Maybe his scumbuddies told him he could get away with pushing an omgus scumread on me. But even if it’s not the first thing he read, and is just the first thing he decided to form an opinion on, the reasons for scumreading me are straight-up lies. I’m not asking questions? I’m not going to bother counting them, but I’d bet more than a third of my posts contain questions. I’m upset about being accused? The only thing I’d even been “accused” of was Tom’s questioning of why I wasn’t the NK, and I wasn’t upset about that at all. I didn’t even think he was that serious about it originally. I’m also getting a little sick of being scumread for “protesting” too much. It’s like I said with worcej, poking at people and “arguing” with them is how I try to figure out the game. Bunny knows this after M54 and I think he saw how it got me scumread then and is trying to use it against me here.

• His argument that Tom apparently missing that bunny’s vote for neph was a joke can’t have been constructed scum theater is extremely unconvincing. If they’re teammates, I wouldn’t put it past Tom at all to be able to make that kind of “slip.”

• Bunny thinks me being unsure about my reads is scummy. Not sure why, since we don’t have any confirmed scum yet and therefore very little concrete info to go off of. The only time I was “sure” about my reads in the game he’s referencing was on day 7 when town had tons more info than we have here. It’s completely illogical to make a comparison between those two situations.

General impressions of everyone else after reread:

Bozo: almost everything bozo posts seems towny to me. It would take something really weird and unexpected for me to change my read of bozo at this point.

Chaqa: I don’t really see anything about Chaqa that stands out as scummy. I think he was tunneling on xorxes and made such a big deal out of xorxes’ reference to my scum meta that it’s hard to believe he did that in an effort to mislynch xorxes as scum. Using that as a large part of a fake scumread, when plenty of people were fighting him on it, doesn’t make sense to me because Chaqa didn’t have to draw so much attention to himself to push xorxes. I also don’t understand the heat Chaqa is getting for not breaking the D1 tie when food and bozo were in the exact same position. It just seems like selective hearing to me.

Damo: posts about not bothering to read bozo’s posts, doesn’t want to decide for himself what’s important, votes without giving any reasons… I think damo is very scummy, I’m just worried that he’s not actually scum because in my experience this is how he plays as town. It would be really surprising if D1 was TvT, though, so maybe I’m trying too hard to overcompensate for my instinctual suspicions of damo.

emc/Vecna: I didn’t have much of an opinion about emc, but I think Vecna has come off very similar to his town games that I’ve seen. He’s pushing, doesn’t care what people think about him, making good points. I think he’d likely do that as scum too but what really strikes me as towny is his adamant defense of damo.

Food/worcej still basically confirmed town obviously.

Conclusions: I still think the scumteam is tom/damo/bunnygo but damo is the one I'm most unsure of and I really think bunny should be the lynch.

Way to literally take the one post I clearly stated why I think you're scum and say I think the EXACT OPPOSITE!

As a note, if you were scum, and looking to push a mislynch who would be your top candidate. I know mine: ME! Bunny! The loveable and charming player who sucks at hunting, but has been at leas half decent as scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 3.5
​
damo666(5) - worcej, Chaqa, Tom Bombadil, BunnyGo, bozotheclown
BunnyGo(2) - Kgray, Damo666
Chaqa(2) - Vecna, foodcoats

Currently DAMO is set for lynch.

Everyone has met the participation requirements.

10 hours and 5 minutes of Day Three remain.

[Tom Bombadil]

kgray - a few responses

1) you question my scumread of damo. I think in the early hours of the game, your not going to have huge cases to go on because there have been no flips. I still scumread damo for that vote. And you said I scumread him too hard, but I think that’s nonsense. It does no good for me to be like “well, it’s early and I’m not sure but he might be scum.” Then toud just attack me for giving myself and out to get if the wagon (something you are doing anyway).

2) I didn’t get off the wagon

3) I maintain my townread of xorxes was good, and the fact that he was not careful with his memory indicates he was town. Appparently this means I am scum and knew he was town rather than having a good read. I think your ego is not letting you admit that you were wrong in your analysis that xorxes would be more careful as town and thus your only explanation for me having a good read is that I am scum.

3) I explained why I think summit was killed, and while I didn’t really for rivera my guess is they were afraid of a commute or you are scum. Of course the same rationale can be applied to me but I know I am town so I’m not sure why I would use that rationale to scumread myself. That makes no sense...

[Tom Bombadil]

Sorry for the typos. I hate playing on my phone

[foodcoats]

I think we're always going to end up lynching damo unfortunately. Whether now or later. Damo has connections to Chaqa and Bunnythys, the only other viable wagons today. So we will still end up lynching damo later and losing if he is town.

I just wrote a long stream of consciousness analysis of the wagons and realized it is all completely useless. Partly D1 is difficult because I tunneled so hard and was uncompromising about xorxes. But it's also incredibly difficult because of our two replacers. Neph and emc, fuck you guys if you are town for making D1 analysis impossible. Don't fucking sign up if you can't play. I am going to harass the fuck out of you shitheads in the sign up for next game and policy lynch the fuck out of you if you turn up town in this game.

Ugh, except I can't even do that at the risk of causing the same problem for next D1. Please just ban yourselves until you can be more responsible.

##VOTE damo666

If you're town damo, I'm sorry.

[foodcoats]

Can't really play any more today but may squeak in for EOD.

Sigh.

[foodcoats]

And I apologize again for tunneling xorxes and creating the environment to mislynch xorxes. I am an idiot.

[Vecna]

Im pretty sure this is a mislynch and town loses the game on the spot today, but since im a replacement and all town PR's are adamant im really not caring enough to try and go crusade mode again.

will save me the effort of catching up as well.

Congrats chaqa, your mediocre reasoning on pushes mislynches was enough

[kgray]

Way to literally take the one post I clearly stated why I think you're scum and say I think the EXACT OPPOSITE!

As a note, if you were scum, and looking to push a mislynch who would be your top candidate. I know mine: ME! Bunny! The loveable and charming player who sucks at hunting, but has been at leas half decent as scum.

I you're town Bunny please please explain where I'm misinterpreting you, because this kind of thing is never going to convince me I'm wrong about you.

And I'm pushing you're lynch because I think you're scum. You're obviously not an easy lynch since the only other person voting you is damo.

[kgray]

3) I maintain my townread of xorxes was good, and the fact that he was not careful with his memory indicates he was town. Appparently this means I am scum and knew he was town rather than having a good read. I think your ego is not letting you admit that you were wrong in your analysis that xorxes would be more careful as town and thus your only explanation for me having a good read is that I am scum.

I am surprised xorxes did this as town. The past two games when we've both been town it was really obvious to me that he was town, so I'm surprised I was wrong here. But can you please respond to this post? I do not think you're addressing why I found xorxes' misremembering so scummy and the way you ignored the actual reason I scumread him for it still doesn't sit right with me.

3) I explained why I think summit was killed, and while I didn’t really for rivera my guess is they were afraid of a commute or you are scum. Of course the same rationale can be applied to me but I know I am town so I’m not sure why I would use that rationale to scumread myself. That makes no sense...

I know it doesn't make sense for you to scumread yourself for it, but I don't think it makes sense for you to scumread anyone at all for it.

[Chaqa]

Im pretty sure this is a mislynch and town loses the game on the spot today, but since im a replacement and all town PR's are adamant im really not caring enough to try and go crusade mode again.

will save me the effort of catching up as well.

Congrats chaqa, your mediocre reasoning on pushes mislynches was enough

:fingerguns:

If you have an alternate reasoning for someone else, let us hear it, but I don’t see any world where damo isn’t scum.

[Tom Bombadil]

3) I maintain my townread of xorxes was good, and the fact that he was not careful with his memory indicates he was town. Appparently this means I am scum and knew he was town rather than having a good read. I think your ego is not letting you admit that you were wrong in your analysis that xorxes would be more careful as town and thus your only explanation for me having a good read is that I am scum.

I am surprised xorxes did this as town. The past two games when we've both been town it was really obvious to me that he was town, so I'm surprised I was wrong here. But can you please respond to this post? I do not think you're addressing why I found xorxes' misremembering so scummy and the way you ignored the actual reason I scumread him for it still doesn't sit right with me.

3) I explained why I think summit was killed, and while I didn’t really for rivera my guess is they were afraid of a commute or you are scum. Of course the same rationale can be applied to me but I know I am town so I’m not sure why I would use that rationale to scumread myself. That makes no sense...

I know it doesn't make sense for you to scumread yourself for it, but I don't think it makes sense for you to scumread anyone at all for it.

I have responded to that post. But more clearly, xorxes isn’t the type to go quote a random game. He has opinions on players from past experiences, and this time he clearly misremembered. I thought that was towny because scum xorx I think would actually go back and check before he said something like that. Town xorx on the other hand is not afraid to say what’s on his mind.

I do think it’s fair to potentially scumread someone for not being night killed when they are widely townread. I don’t think this is unusual?

[Vecna]

Everyone should have 3 scumreads and a bunch of townreads here.

You PRs should pressure people to vote their scumread #2 and #3, and then realize that they dont want to because those will have to be bussing their partners.

Scum is all-in on lynching damo today and winning