M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[BunnyGo]

Seriously can anyone summarize their case on chaqa?

Mines mostly based on
1) The assumption of damo being scum
2) Wagon analysis and POE
3) My townread of bozo and kgray (I guess that's tied to the POE)

Why townread kgray?

[bozotheclown]

Working on a work issue so have to be brief, but reads wise see my post awhile back for where I was at. Now i'm feeling like:

Town-Food, Bozo, Kgray
null-EMC, Neph, summit, rivera
Scumny-xorxes, worcej, damo, Tom

I'd like to point out the post EVERYONE is ignoring where I bring up I was busy with something for work before those posts when it was still as yet tied.

And I had some reason to think EMC or Neph would show up and vote, though they didn't in the end. Moving at EoD is tricky especially if you can't pay full attention.

Yes, but 2 minutes later, why didn't you just vote for damo instead of posting this:

When damo votes xorxes (assuming he's here), we'll be at 5-5...

EMC isn't likely to come back.

Neph is catching up.

This is weird

[Chaqa]

Working on a work issue so have to be brief, but reads wise see my post awhile back for where I was at. Now i'm feeling like:

Town-Food, Bozo, Kgray
null-EMC, Neph, summit, rivera
Scumny-xorxes, worcej, damo, Tom

I'd like to point out the post EVERYONE is ignoring where I bring up I was busy with something for work before those posts when it was still as yet tied.

And I had some reason to think EMC or Neph would show up and vote, though they didn't in the end. Moving at EoD is tricky especially if you can't pay full attention.

Yes, but 2 minutes later, why didn't you just vote for damo instead of posting this:

When damo votes xorxes (assuming he's here), we'll be at 5-5...

EMC isn't likely to come back.

Neph is catching up.

This is weird

Well, it wasn't tied at that exact moment, so I didn't think it necessary since xorxes was my preferred lynch.

I was also doing my best to juggle work and mafia, man. Idk what to tell ya

[bozotheclown]

Seriously can anyone summarize their case on chaqa?

Mines mostly based on
1) The assumption of damo being scum
2) Wagon analysis and POE
3) My townread of bozo and kgray (I guess that's tied to the POE)

Why townread kgray?

Everyone has been town reading kgray, so either all 3 scum are pocketing her, or she is scum. However, everyone except damo (and Chaqa as of D3) has been town reading me as well, so I know at least 2 scum have been pocketing me.

[bozotheclown]

I'd like to point out the post EVERYONE is ignoring where I bring up I was busy with something for work before those posts when it was still as yet tied.

And I had some reason to think EMC or Neph would show up and vote, though they didn't in the end. Moving at EoD is tricky especially if you can't pay full attention.

Yes, but 2 minutes later, why didn't you just vote for damo instead of posting this:

When damo votes xorxes (assuming he's here), we'll be at 5-5...

EMC isn't likely to come back.

Neph is catching up.

This is weird

Well, it wasn't tied at that exact moment, so I didn't think it necessary since xorxes was my preferred lynch.

I was also doing my best to juggle work and mafia, man. Idk what to tell ya

You were obviously concerned about the tie, though, which you could have preemptively prevented.

[bozotheclown]

It will be disappointing if the scum team is Tom, Nephthys, and emc, and the scum just stayed away D1 EOD.

[Chaqa]

I don't know what I can do to convince people I'm not scum.

I was blinded by my xorx-damo theory. I hope i'm 1 for 2 and not 0 for 2.

[bozotheclown]

So, you think Food and Bozo are town, but disagree with their (town!) reads/belief that xorx is scum? If that's the case, on what basis do you town read them? Kgray also I think is suspicious of xorx.

if xorx flips town, this post will strike me as very suspicious. I'll keep it in mind and I'm not quite understanding your reasoning.

I think the key word you're missing @Chaqa is 'today'

That just seems like Tom is hedging. Meanwhile he's voting for summit, on a wagon he KNOWS won't go anywhere.

Seems like lazyscum to me.

Working on a work issue so have to be brief, but reads wise see my post awhile back for where I was at. Now i'm feeling like:

Town-Food, Bozo, Kgray
null-EMC, Neph, summit, rivera
Scumny-xorxes, worcej, damo, Tom

What made you drop your scum read of Tom?

[Chaqa]

I think the key word you're missing @Chaqa is 'today'

That just seems like Tom is hedging. Meanwhile he's voting for summit, on a wagon he KNOWS won't go anywhere.

Seems like lazyscum to me.

Working on a work issue so have to be brief, but reads wise see my post awhile back for where I was at. Now i'm feeling like:

Town-Food, Bozo, Kgray
null-EMC, Neph, summit, rivera
Scumny-xorxes, worcej, damo, Tom

What made you drop your scum read of Tom?

Mostly VCA. I figure scum had to be on the xorx wagon.

If that assumption is wrong, I don't see how we can catch scum anyway, so...

[bozotheclown]

That just seems like Tom is hedging. Meanwhile he's voting for summit, on a wagon he KNOWS won't go anywhere.

Seems like lazyscum to me.

Working on a work issue so have to be brief, but reads wise see my post awhile back for where I was at. Now i'm feeling like:

Town-Food, Bozo, Kgray
null-EMC, Neph, summit, rivera
Scumny-xorxes, worcej, damo, Tom

What made you drop your scum read of Tom?

Mostly VCA. I figure scum had to be on the xorx wagon.

If that assumption is wrong, I don't see how we can catch scum anyway, so...

If damo is scum, I think someone was bussing him D1, especially with mafia day chat.

[Chaqa]

What made you drop your scum read of Tom?

Mostly VCA. I figure scum had to be on the xorx wagon.

If that assumption is wrong, I don't see how we can catch scum anyway, so...

If damo is scum, I think someone was bussing him D1, especially with mafia day chat.

So, lynch damo and find out?

[bozotheclown]

Well, the likeliest scenarios are

1) They feared she would be commuted
2) She is actually scum
3) They scanned summit.
4) They like messing with my brain

Why didn't you include summit having good reads as a possibility?

[bozotheclown]

Mostly VCA. I figure scum had to be on the xorx wagon.

If that assumption is wrong, I don't see how we can catch scum anyway, so...

If damo is scum, I think someone was bussing him D1, especially with mafia day chat.

So, lynch damo and find out?

If damo is town, I also think it is unlikely his wagon was all town. You are town reading kgray and Tom when I think at least one them is scum.

[Chaqa]

If damo is scum, I think someone was bussing him D1, especially with mafia day chat.

So, lynch damo and find out?

If damo is town, I also think it is unlikely his wagon was all town. You are town reading kgray and Tom when I think at least one them is scum.

I do always second guess whenever Tom or xorx or other high-skill town players do not die early to nightkills.

[bozotheclown]

scum team predictions:

bozo: damo, Chaqa, Tom
damo: bozo, Chaqa, BunnyGo
foodcoats: damo, BunnyGo, Chaqa
Vecna: Chaqa, Tom, BunnyGo
kgray: damo, BunnyGo, Tom
Tom: damo, Chaqa, (Vecna or kgray)
Chaqa: damo, (2/3) of (Bozo, Vecna, Bunny)

Maybe kgray is getting widely town read because she is the one doing the pocketing. If she had been pocketing all of the town, then her partners would likely be damo and BunnyGo, or maybe BunnyGo and Tom. That would explain BunnyGo's early vote for kgray.

[bozotheclown]

##Vote kgray for now. The lady gray protests too much. And is too upset about being accused. She asks no questions, and tells only lies.

I should know, I've read nearly half her ISO! Look at me I'm reeding. Yay for trying!

Can you tell me what kgray was upset about being accused of?

[kgray]

I decided to just do a reread instead of my planned ISOs. Without any confirmed scum, this wasn’t super enlightening, but here are my thoughts:

It does seem unlikely that the D1 votes were TvT but I’m not sure I’m willing to stake the game on the assumption that it couldn’t have been. That’s how my first game ended and we lost. So while I do think damo is scum, I think it makes the most sense to look for people who could be scum regardless of damo’s alignment. The two people who fit that most are Tom and Bunny.

Re: Tom

• Tom voting for damo because damo came up with a weird “policy vote” metric that resulted in him voting for xorxes. I very strongly believe that damo did not think anyone would follow him onto xorxes for such an obviously non-serious reason, and I likewise do not believe Tom thought anyone was likely to follow damo onto xorxes for this reason. So I find it really odd that Tom had such a strong reaction to damo’s vote and assumed he was specifically coming up with a reason to start a xorxes wagon. I think if damo is scum, scum!Tom could have been finding an easy way to put a vote on his teammate damo very early in the game where he had plenty of time to move off. If damo is town, I think Tom could have been sowing early suspicion on damo and buddying xorxes. I really can’t see a reason for town!Tom to scumread damo so hard for that vote.

• Tom’s hard defending of xorxes also weirds me out a bit. I don’t see how he was so confident in his read of xorxes and why he seemed to brush off the arguments brought against him, mostly just by saying that xorxes would be more careful as scum. I think it’s likely that Tom knew xorxes was town and was trying to pocket him while keeping around a big target for a future mislynch.

• I really don’t see a townie reason for Tom specifically to wifom about why I wasn’t killed. The same argument he made about me being townread applies to him too. He also brought up the question of why rdr and summit were the NK, but he didn’t draw any conclusions from that line of reasoning. Overall it didn’t seem like he was using the NK targets to try to figure anything out, but rather trying to cause confusion over the night kill targets. He even said himself that he’s usually killed early, so by bringing up this line of questioning I think he was trying to preemptively get people to shrug off any suspicions of himself based on that fact that he wouldn’t be the kill.

Re: NephyGo

• I won’t bother writing anything else about Neph because I’ve made my thoughts on him pretty clear, although I’d love to discuss them with anyone who disagrees because scum!Neph makes so much sense to me and I’m not sure why others aren’t seeing that.

• Bunny’s entrance to this game has not made me even question my read of Neph’s alignment. I will admit that Bunny and I tend to clash and I could be reacting to my frustration with him, but there are some objective facts that I find really suspicious about Bunny:

• He comes in with questions and that’s fine, as presumably he needs to catch up. Then, the first thing he says he read was (half of) my ISO. First of all, if that’s really the first thing he read, that’s nuts. Maybe his scumbuddies told him he could get away with pushing an omgus scumread on me. But even if it’s not the first thing he read, and is just the first thing he decided to form an opinion on, the reasons for scumreading me are straight-up lies. I’m not asking questions? I’m not going to bother counting them, but I’d bet more than a third of my posts contain questions. I’m upset about being accused? The only thing I’d even been “accused” of was Tom’s questioning of why I wasn’t the NK, and I wasn’t upset about that at all. I didn’t even think he was that serious about it originally. I’m also getting a little sick of being scumread for “protesting” too much. It’s like I said with worcej, poking at people and “arguing” with them is how I try to figure out the game. Bunny knows this after M54 and I think he saw how it got me scumread then and is trying to use it against me here.

• His argument that Tom apparently missing that bunny’s vote for neph was a joke can’t have been constructed scum theater is extremely unconvincing. If they’re teammates, I wouldn’t put it past Tom at all to be able to make that kind of “slip.”

• Bunny thinks me being unsure about my reads is scummy. Not sure why, since we don’t have any confirmed scum yet and therefore very little concrete info to go off of. The only time I was “sure” about my reads in the game he’s referencing was on day 7 when town had tons more info than we have here. It’s completely illogical to make a comparison between those two situations.

General impressions of everyone else after reread:

Bozo: almost everything bozo posts seems towny to me. It would take something really weird and unexpected for me to change my read of bozo at this point.

Chaqa: I don’t really see anything about Chaqa that stands out as scummy. I think he was tunneling on xorxes and made such a big deal out of xorxes’ reference to my scum meta that it’s hard to believe he did that in an effort to mislynch xorxes as scum. Using that as a large part of a fake scumread, when plenty of people were fighting him on it, doesn’t make sense to me because Chaqa didn’t have to draw so much attention to himself to push xorxes. I also don’t understand the heat Chaqa is getting for not breaking the D1 tie when food and bozo were in the exact same position. It just seems like selective hearing to me.

Damo: posts about not bothering to read bozo’s posts, doesn’t want to decide for himself what’s important, votes without giving any reasons… I think damo is very scummy, I’m just worried that he’s not actually scum because in my experience this is how he plays as town. It would be really surprising if D1 was TvT, though, so maybe I’m trying too hard to overcompensate for my instinctual suspicions of damo.

emc/Vecna: I didn’t have much of an opinion about emc, but I think Vecna has come off very similar to his town games that I’ve seen. He’s pushing, doesn’t care what people think about him, making good points. I think he’d likely do that as scum too but what really strikes me as towny is his adamant defense of damo.

Food/worcej still basically confirmed town obviously.

Conclusions: I still think the scumteam is tom/damo/bunnygo but damo is the one I'm most unsure of and I really think bunny should be the lynch.

[kgray]

When Bunny subbed into scum last time he was confused and jocular, here he is very smarmy and doesn't mind being a coot and pursuing unpopular opinions like kgray is scum. Bunny is either Lord of Grime and Murk or should be considered town temporarily.

He's still acting confused and jocular, and Bunny is always smarmy when it comes to me. He's Lord of Grime and Murk.

[kgray]

Chaqa saying he was too busy at D1 EOD to vote to lynch damo just does not seem true, because if he had time to make these 2 posts at 4 minutes and 2 minutes before EOD, he could easily have voted for damo instead of pointing out we were likely to tie and that he was OK with either wagon. If Chaqa had voted for damo, it would have put damo up 6-3, and the tie he was worried about would not have happened. It seems to me he was trying to get a damo voter to switch to xorxes.

Bozo I don't understand this argument from you. How is what you did different? You posted twice with a minute left and were also voting xorxes and could have switched to damo.

[kgray]

It will be disappointing if the scum team is Tom, Nephthys, and emc, and the scum just stayed away D1 EOD.

Disappointing and embarrassing. Although I don't think it's likely, I do not see any good reason why this scumteam couldn't work.