M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[xorxes]

Some PR thoughts.

Assuming worcej and foodcoats are both telling the truth.

It is very unlikely that the roleblock was used N1, because scum would want to use the cop scan first so as to know more effectively where to use the roleblock, and also because vig hitting scum D1 is more unlikely than D2.

That means that since both vig shots failed, one must have been stopped by the judicator or by the Tough Guy.

The judicator is the only one who knows if they commuted one of worcej/food/emc/summit.

If they didn't commute any of them, then they know one of Vecna/summit is almost certainly scum (unless worcej or food is lying).

Unfortunately, if judicator tells us this today they will almost certainly be killed tonight, so it's probably better to wait. But they should probably speak up at the last minute of the day so that we don't lose that info if they die tonight.

again with the pretense of knowing what scum would do to reason out scumreads and throw shade

What pretense? Do you think it's unreasonable to assume scum would not use the roleblock D1? That's my only assumption in that post, I think.

And who am I throwing shade at? You and summit were supposedly targeted by our Vigs. If they are not lying, one of the shots was real, and there's a very limited number of ways you can both be still alive. There's a very reasonable chance that one of you is the Tough Guy. That's not throwing shade, it is being explicit about what the possibilities are.

[foodcoats]

PSA from the office of High Inquisitor foodcoats:

IF YOU ARE TOWN, YOU MUST VOTE FOR XORXES OR DAMO666 TODAY. TO DO OTHERWISE IS ANTI-TOWN.

Somehow, we have a Nephthys wagon. That is completely stupid. I will allow that I could be wrong about xorxes - I am not omniscient - but the wagons must be xorxes vs. damo, and one of xorxes or damo must be lynched today. This is the best strategic choice for town, because it gives us a HUGE amount of information about player motivations and choices in EOD1 and in D2.

However, it is also necessary because one of them is OBVIOUSLY scum, and it is not nearly so obvious between any other set of players.

There are so many variables in play, and you might think that it is difficult to decide, is xorxes scum? is damo scum? But that is not what you have to decide. All you have to consider is the below:

Consider whether you think it is possible that D1 was TvT. You only need ask, did a tie occur between two town players?

I think the answer is overwhelmingly "no."

1. Both wagonees have argued as to why the other is likely scum if they are town. Both these POEs are valid and I believe are accurate from a VCA perspective. damo and xorxes are not both town.

2a. Consider that it is entirely acceptable, within the meta, for a town member to begrudgingly break a tie. I did exactly this last game when the votes were tied between Squigs, who was unflipped scum, and Temasek, who turned out to be town. Obviously, the D1 vote this game was very polarizing, but scum had no reason to be afraid of moving and getting a mislynch, advancing their wincon, and still being townread, because this is a townie behaviour.

2b. I believe that the reason scum could NOT secure a mislynch is because scum are exactly xorxes, summit, and Tom Bombabil*. Tom white-knighted xorxes repeatedly, could not move off damo or brook a D1 get, and summit had to slide onto damo despite never providing any specific reasons to scumread damo, specifically scumreading xorxes on two counts, and being unable to explain today why he scumread damo other than "I didn't like these posts" and "gut." Scum worked hard to defend their slot, which was the correct play for them.

[[
*(I realized this yesterday when Tom had posted nothing of substance more than 24 hours into D2, and then reviewed his iso. I will iso Tom separately later today.)

##CALL GM Please put this read of xorxes, summit and Tom in the God Thread, where my laurels await.
]]

I am very, very confident in the above team, but there is one other possibility:

xorxes, damo and Nephthys. Nephthys is only scum if both xorxes and damo are scum. Town!Neph can afford to be a gremlin. Scum!Neph will play to wincon, had the documented posts to validly vote for town!damo or town!xorxes, and would've placed a vote to break the tie or at least push the town wagon into the lead (if he was actually low on time), because, as I explained above, this is entirely reasonable townie behaviour. I think this configuration is much less likely, because damo is playing very, very townie this game; but it is possible.

I believe this analysis shows why xorxes should be lynched today. If all you townies out there think that damo should be lynched instead, fine. At least mislynch him NOW so we get it out of the way before you are forced to agree that xorxes is scum. IF YOU ARE TOWN, YOU MUST VOTE XORXES OR DAMO666. TO DO OTHERWISE DENIES THE TOWN INFORMATION, IS UNSTRATEGIC, AND HELPS SCUM ADVANCE THEIR GAME.

You will probably find it is very easy to get a big wagon on damo, because xorxes, Tom, and summit are going to be right there with you.

[xorxes]

@food, do you agree with me that we only have one mislynch left (unless judicator saves someone)?

[xorxes]

1. Both wagonees have argued as to why the other is likely scum if they are town. Both these POEs are valid and I believe are accurate from a VCA perspective. damo and xorxes are not both town.

In my analysis I argued that TvT was unlikely unless all scum were unable to change their vote at the end, which left Vecna-Tom-worcej as the only possibility in that case. With worcej as apparently confirmed town, that makes TvT more unlikely. However, it turns out that Neph may also have been unable to change his vote, so it could be Vecna-Tom-Neph.

But the more likely case is damo is scum, in which case the other two scum would have to be in (Chaqa, bozo, Vecna, Tom, Neph).

Based on my reads, plus the fact that Vecna could be Tough Guy, my current best guess is damo-Chaqa-Vecna.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT:
Same as last time. Xorxes 4, Neph 3, Summit 2, Damo 2.
A little over 6 hours left.

[xorxes]

Assuming

1 worcej is town due to claim
2 Neph is town else he would have caused lynch
3 Vecna is town because scumemc would have made an effort to vote

then

if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon giving only 2 possible scum teams, namely

food Bozo Chaqa OR kgray Tom summit

@food: You say both damo and I argue that TvT is unlikely, but our arguments are quite different. You really believe it makes sense that if it was TvT then all scum had to be on the same wagon?

I'm not even saying you have to scumread damo for this nonsense, I'm just asking if you think it is sensible analysis or nonsensical analysis.

[foodcoats]

@food, do you agree with me that we only have one mislynch left (unless judicator saves someone)?

I believe we have two mislynches--or rather, two mislynches causes us to lose, so we only have one "free" mislynch. But I think that's what you mean, as I read your post and, although I didn't comment on it, I thought your mechanical analysis to be correct and pro-town.

The only exception is if we lynch the JOAT.

[foodcoats]

1. Both wagonees have argued as to why the other is likely scum if they are town. Both these POEs are valid and I believe are accurate from a VCA perspective. damo and xorxes are not both town.

In my analysis I argued that TvT was unlikely unless all scum were unable to change their vote at the end, which left Vecna-Tom-worcej as the only possibility in that case. With worcej as apparently confirmed town, that makes TvT more unlikely. However, it turns out that Neph may also have been unable to change his vote, so it could be Vecna-Tom-Neph.

But the more likely case is damo is scum, in which case the other two scum would have to be in (Chaqa, bozo, Vecna, Tom, Neph).

Based on my reads, plus the fact that Vecna could be Tough Guy, my current best guess is damo-Chaqa-Vecna.

I think the situation you describe that might make TvT possible is pretty dubious - possible, but unlikely - and I think in general a tie is much more likely when scum are frozen in place to protect one of their number. It's vastly more likely that if it were TvT, scum would find a way to mislynch and drive to their endgame faster.

[xorxes]

For those who have ignored me:

Why are we not solving the Vecna and Summit situation out when one of them is probably scum?

This question should become more clear once the judicator tells us who they commuted D1 (if anyone). Unfortunately, they can't do that now if they want to have a chance to save someone tonight. If they did not commute one of worcej/food/emc/summit then it becomes very likely that one of Vecna and summit is the Tough Guy. That makes me think that the judicator did commute one of those four, but maybe they didn't and they just want to take their chances of a save tonight. So it is probably better to leave the summit/Vecna question for tomorrow when we have more information.

[worcej]

For those who have ignored me:

Why are we not solving the Vecna and Summit situation out when one of them is probably scum?

There is no vecna and summit situation. There might be a summit situation.

You should be easily able to read my play here and make the right decision. You seemed to be able to do that just fine even before I started playing, so it should only be easier by now.

If you'll notice, my vote is not on you currently. I just find it awful that we most likely have a scum between two people and once again it is being ignored by the town.

[worcej]

Summit backtracking his scumreads on both damo and xorx seems pretty towny to me.

Why exactly?

[xorxes]

@food, do you agree with me that we only have one mislynch left (unless judicator saves someone)?

I believe we have two mislynches--or rather, two mislynches causes us to lose, so we only have one "free" mislynch. But I think that's what you mean, as I read your post and, although I didn't comment on it, I thought your mechanical analysis to be correct and pro-town.

The only exception is if we lynch the JOAT.

That's a good point. Or if the judicator manages a save, but that will be hard as scum still have many choices for their kill, and they can probably choose someone unlikely to be commuted to do the kill.

So barring exceptional circumstances, we should assume we only have one mislynch left.

[foodcoats]

Assuming

1 worcej is town due to claim
2 Neph is town else he would have caused lynch
3 Vecna is town because scumemc would have made an effort to vote

then

if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon giving only 2 possible scum teams, namely

food Bozo Chaqa OR kgray Tom summit

@food: You say both damo and I argue that TvT is unlikely, but our arguments are quite different. You really believe it makes sense that if it was TvT then all scum had to be on the same wagon?

I'm not even saying you have to scumread damo for this nonsense, I'm just asking if you think it is sensible analysis or nonsensical analysis.

Actually, now that I think about it again, if it was TvT AND ended in a tie, then no, I don't think scum were on only one wagon.

But I don't think it was TvT in the first place.

See, the mistake is in thinking there's any likely world where this was TvT. It was not TvT. You or damo is scum.

I think it's you, but the point of my wall was to indicate that town needs to realize one of you is scum, and lynch one of you today to get the most possible information so that we don't lose tomorrow.

[foodcoats]

Or, it could be both of you with Nephthys. As I indicated, that's less likely based on my reads, but it is possible given the VCA.

[xorxes]

1. Both wagonees have argued as to why the other is likely scum if they are town. Both these POEs are valid and I believe are accurate from a VCA perspective. damo and xorxes are not both town.

In my analysis I argued that TvT was unlikely unless all scum were unable to change their vote at the end, which left Vecna-Tom-worcej as the only possibility in that case. With worcej as apparently confirmed town, that makes TvT more unlikely. However, it turns out that Neph may also have been unable to change his vote, so it could be Vecna-Tom-Neph.

But the more likely case is damo is scum, in which case the other two scum would have to be in (Chaqa, bozo, Vecna, Tom, Neph).

Based on my reads, plus the fact that Vecna could be Tough Guy, my current best guess is damo-Chaqa-Vecna.

I think the situation you describe that might make TvT possible is pretty dubious - possible, but unlikely - and I think in general a tie is much more likely when scum are frozen in place to protect one of their number. It's vastly more likely that if it were TvT, scum would find a way to mislynch and drive to their endgame faster.

Exactly my argument. But you do understand that damo's argument was not that, right?

[worcej]

Some PR thoughts.

Assuming worcej and foodcoats are both telling the truth.

It is very unlikely that the roleblock was used N1, because scum would want to use the cop scan first so as to know more effectively where to use the roleblock, and also because vig hitting scum D1 is more unlikely than D2.

That means that since both vig shots failed, one must have been stopped by the judicator or by the Tough Guy.

The judicator is the only one who knows if they commuted one of worcej/food/emc/summit.

If they didn't commute any of them, then they know one of Vecna/summit is almost certainly scum (unless worcej or food is lying).

Unfortunately, if judicator tells us this today they will almost certainly be killed tonight, so it's probably better to wait. But they should probably speak up at the last minute of the day so that we don't lose that info if they die tonight.

+1 this analysis

[worcej]

For those who have ignored me:

Why are we not solving the Vecna and Summit situation out when one of them is probably scum?

Are you asking us to choose between Vecna and Summit for today's lynch just because neither (alleged) shot was successful? There are other possibilities to why neither target died besides one being the tough guy. Do you really think that narrowing the lynch down to these two targets is our best bet at hitting scum?

Did someone feed you a 'let's always be negative pill' or something? You are making it blatant that you are aware of more information than you should know by arguing with the 'alleged' vig claims that have yet to be countered in any way.

[worcej]

Remember everyone, because of the double-vote we only have one mislynch left.

Today it's 8 vs 3(+1).

If we mislynch and nighkill is successful, tomorrow is 6 vs 3(+1). That's mylo.

The double vote only counts for one day.

Which doesn't change xorxes' analysis. Post-use and NK after intentional tie, it's still 3-3, which is game over.

Combo this with your apparent knowing more than you should, leads me to scum you pretty hard.

[worcej]

Remember everyone, because of the double-vote we only have one mislynch left.

Today it's 8 vs 3(+1).

If we mislynch and nighkill is successful, tomorrow is 6 vs 3(+1). That's mylo.

The double vote only counts for one day.

If we mislynch at 6-3, the next day is 4-3(+1). They can use the double to force a tie and then the next day is 3-3, we lose.

So 6-3 is not strictly mylo because of the possibility of a save, but if there are no saves, it is mylo, isn't it?

Yes. On par for analytical xorxes.

[xorxes]

Actually, now that I think about it again, if it was TvT AND ended in a tie, then no, I don't think scum were on only one wagon.

Thank you. So you do agree that damo's analysis was a bit ridiculous.

This does not necessarily mean damo is scum, because town make ridiculous analysis sometimes, but he didn't answer about it when I asked him. I think if he was town he would either admit it didn't make much sense or else he would defend it if he still thought it made some sense.

But I don't think it was TvT in the first place.

At this point neither do I, but it's not unthinkable.

See, the mistake is in thinking there's any likely world where this was TvT. It was not TvT. You or damo is scum.

I think it's you, but the point of my wall was to indicate that town needs to realize one of you is scum, and lynch one of you today to get the most possible information so that we don't lose tomorrow.

The point of your wall was clear. What is less clear to me is where your (and Vecna's) strong townread of damo comes from. If I could see what makes damo so towny (and it shouldn't be that difficult for me since that's my default read for him) then it would be much more clear to me who the most likely scum are.