M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[foodcoats]

"piggy-backing of other peoples pushes"

Like this read is so fake. I voted for damo and summit and literally started both wagons. And defended xorxes. Where did I piggy back off anything?

I agree with this self assessment.

Neph, what do you think of Chaqa's suggestion we resolve yesterday's wagons? You have indicated you think xorxes is scum.

I'm not against it.

However I think we have a better chance with tom/summit

What do you mean by saying we have a "better chance"?

[Nephthys]

Oh snap

Guess who forgot about this game

I’ll catch up in a few hours

When you made these posts, did you realize it was 10 minutes before EOD? Did you check the vote count at that time?

Yes, no

I woke up at 8:45, wondered why I knew I needed to do something, realised this was a thing and I also had class at 9, posted and then got up for class, checked back when I started to catch up

[Vecna]

I do see where you are coming from.

I guess my issue is that his post clearly isn't a joke, so that can't explain it. I guess you could say its a policy vote, but if you don't think people would follow damo to xorxes, you certainly wouldn't think damos "policy" vote holds any water and would actually succeed in getting people to speak.

Obviously I didn't follow the last two games, so I can't speak specifically to the bozo/xorx argument except that xorx has a good reputation as town - moreso that bozo.

I don't see what damo was trying to achieve with his comment/vote. The policy side doesn't add up either as looking at this lineup, I would expect no issue in terms of people participating, and I don't suspect damo would either.

Guess Tom's reasoning here is more understandable with him missing the last game thing and it being made an explicit point a few times that during most parts of the game the scum were in the bottom posters.

I do see where you are coming from.

I guess my issue is that his post clearly isn't a joke, so that can't explain it. I guess you could say its a policy vote, but if you don't think people would follow damo to xorxes, you certainly wouldn't think damos "policy" vote holds any water and would actually succeed in getting people to speak.

Obviously I didn't follow the last two games, so I can't speak specifically to the bozo/xorx argument except that xorx has a good reputation as town - moreso that bozo.

I don't see what damo was trying to achieve with his comment/vote. The policy side doesn't add up either as looking at this lineup, I would expect no issue in terms of people participating, and I don't suspect damo would either.

In the last mini game (M1010), bozo had the game solved and was NKed just before lylo, while xorxes was incorrectly townreading damo. Last game (M55) I don't remember who was "more correct" in their reads, but xorxes was again incorrectly townreading damo. I just don't think that scum!damo going specifically for xorxes makes a whole lot of sense based on recent games.

But, I will agree that damo's vote didn't really seem like a legit policy vote. I don't think it holds water at all, and people are only talking about it because you voted for him based off it. And it didn't seem like a joke to me either, but it seems so random to me that I just can't take it seriously. I don't get how scum!damo could think it would work, or why he'd bother with such a strange placeholder vote when he could have easily made a joke vote or none at all.

Kgray also locktown

OK, just caught up. In Tom vs kgray, kgray is the clear winner. She seems to be in her town range. I think she was scum only once and if I remember correctly she would avoid having an opinion on things.

Just one thing: I was not townreading damo last game, I was mostly ignoring him, which I tend to do in the early game because I give him the benefit of the doubt. I had him as my third choice for scum when I was killed, and that was completely Vecna's fault.

I don't think I have enough to make a read on him for now, but he did vote for me last game as scum, so I'm wary now.

I think that the argument that one of the damo voters may be scum is interesting. But I'm going to ##vote Neph because that was Chaqa's first vote, and Chaqa's first vote last game proved to be accurate. Also because of the end vote, and because there's not much more to go on at this point.

Not a very strong opinion, but that is a lot of words to say townread kgray, vote neph.

OK, just caught up. In Tom vs kgray, kgray is the clear winner. She seems to be in her town range. I think she was scum only once and if I remember correctly she would avoid having an opinion on things.

Just one thing: I was not townreading damo last game, I was mostly ignoring him, which I tend to do in the early game because I give him the benefit of the doubt. I had him as my third choice for scum when I was killed, and that was completely Vecna's fault.

I don't think I have enough to make a read on him for now, but he did vote for me last game as scum, so I'm wary now.

An unusual statement from xorxes. Not used to seeing him make a prior game statement about a player in relation to this game. NAI

Xorxes does that all the time?

It seems probable that in the mini-flashwagon against damo for making a silly, convoluted joke, one of worcej or Chaqa is scum. Only so many townies are going to be so blatantly opportunistic.

Between them, Chaqa's bald agreement looks a lot scummier - worcej just seems to be riffing on the joke. Chaqa also voted Nephthys for playing up the same playstyle as last game. Seems like scum trying to make something stick.

##VOTE Chaqa

Do we not do Day 1 joke votes anymore :/

To be fair, I caught Dargo's ass day 1 last game like this... so I'm gonna say I'm at least 1/2 on Neph and Damo

This is a towny post from Chaqa

I think that the argument that one of the damo voters may be scum is interesting. But I'm going to ##vote Neph because that was Chaqa's first vote, and Chaqa's first vote last game proved to be accurate. Also because of the end vote, and because there's not much more to go on at this point.

scum!xorx trying to buddy me? Hmm.

This is also an interesting statement, because Chaqa's play was ultra scummy up until this point and both Xorxes and Tom were completely alright with it.

I think that the argument that one of the damo voters may be scum is interesting. But I'm going to ##vote Neph because that was Chaqa's first vote, and Chaqa's first vote last game proved to be accurate. Also because of the end vote, and because there's not much more to go on at this point.

scum!xorx trying to buddy me? Hmm.

Hmm indeed. Just because I use you as a litmus test doesn't mean I think you know what you're doing.

And then this after. Odd

I trust google more than you, scumxes.

Hmmm, this back and forth got weird from both sides again.

I like this GM. He gave me a present.

Softing gun?

##vote summit

The point of this 'policy' voting is that we have a 5 post requirement instead of two. I tend to struggle to know what to post day 1 with nothing to go on so this should guarantee me at least some posts.

FWIW I am not yet getting any feel for anyone's alignment.

Boro's quotes without commentary are annoying. Without a comment to explain I don't bother reading tbh. If it's important I'm sure it will be talked about.

Why would you assume it will be talked about if it’s important? Shouldn’t you decide for yourself what is important?

Stupid fucking comment. I clearly am saying I can't be bothered reading and am leaving it up to others to decide on the importance.

ffs

This reads a little as town Damo. Not so much aggitation and desire to feel righteous in his usual scumgame.

Someone is angry because they’ve been pegged

You think I'm scum?

Yeah. I think food may have gotcha.

Or not. Unsure.

Vote remains on Bozo.

But then again, this uncertainty and instantly folding under any presumed pressure is something that scum Damo also does often.

I think xorxes may be scum here. foodcoats has some good points and xorxes not bothering to get the facts correct about kgray's past games is somewhat suspicious.

##VOTE xorxes

Yikes. So all of those quotes lead nowhere? There better be some followup.

I find (this is anecdotal- tbh I don’t know if the facts back this up or not, but I think they would) that even in joke phases, wagons can get started and stick. Let’s say two people followed onto xorxes. He becomes a wagon even if damo comes off.

I just really don't think anyone would follow damo onto xorxes here...

It strikes me as odd that he moved from the bottom of the list up, and xorxes happens to be a player sum would LOVE to have mislynch Ed if he is town.

If I were scum I'd be just as happy getting bozo lynched as xorxes, assuming they're both town. And actually, based on the last two times damo was scum, I'd assume scum!damo would rather keep xorxes alive since xorxes seems to always townread damo.

And even if xorx doesn’t get lynched, he becomes a wagon and anyone who is a wagon D1 will get the “someone protected his wagon” come d2.

This is a good point. But, again, it requires xorxes to become an actual wagon first, and I can't see damo actually thinking it would happen.

Further if you are skeptical that people would follow damo and vote xorx, look how quickly people followed me onto damo

Well, for one thing, your vote on damo was for a legitimate reason, whereas damo's was a policy/joke vote. And also, no offense meant to damo, but I think you've got a bit more of an influence than he does. I've never even played with you but I'm familiar with your reputation as a good player.

How are you familiar with Tom's reputation as a good player?

Critical question from Bozo. -usually- a good signal.

Why would you assume it will be talked about if it’s important? Shouldn’t you decide for yourself what is important?

Stupid fucking comment. I clearly am saying I can't be bothered reading and am leaving it up to others to decide on the importance.

ffs

You can't be bothered to read the thread... because you already know everyone's alignment, so you don't need to? And how could any townie possibly trust others to tell them what's important?

This is so freaking scummy. If Fox were here he'd say there's no way scum would say something like this... But he's not, so ##vote damo.

This I strongly disagree with (not that it looks bad on gray). I also instantly stopped reading what bozo was doing. Plenty of other town did I bet. Its not our job to make the point he's trying to make, so let bozo fucking make it instead of spamming nonsense.

[foodcoats]

To be honest, I don't wholly understand the cases of either damo or xorxes and how they narrow down the scumteams here; but given that they both conclude that the other must be scum, I think it is unlikely that they are scum together. I think these two play-by-plays will be incredibly valuable once we know the alignment of one of them.

damo's statement is much more straightforward and has fewer holes, and damo's observations, plus xorxes' blindspots, have made me realize that the likely third scum is either kgray or Vecna.

There are three major flaws I see in xorxes' reasoning:

1. xorxes makes a bizarre observation that scum!food would be agitated that town!xorxes would assume scum!Chaqa is town. That's patently ridiculous. If Chaqa and I were scum together, I would 1) never have made the argument I did in the first place and 2) would be happy if I thought town!xorxes was auto-towning scum!Chaqa. This seems so incredibly obvious that I am astonished xorxes would hit "submit" on a post with that written out. It suggests xorxes is not thinking about how town or scum would actually act, but is just looking for things to fiddle with.

2. xorxes' logic about the wagons doesn't take into account how scum actually play and makes assumptions about certain players that don't need to be made. For example, I routinely lurk exclusively via the bot when I'm scum for exactly this sort of reason, and I seriously doubt other scum players don't do that, too, so assuming that we "know" who was here at EOD is obviously stupid. Second, worcej never said he wasn't/would not be here at EOD, so far as I can tell, so xorxes is again making logical leaps to come up with a fake scum team.

3. Finally, xorxes' analysis includes a blindspot about kgray and summit, both of whom he null-read at EOD and should be considered for possible scum as well. In xorxes' second case, if damo is scum and xorxes is town, there's no glaring logical reason from a VCA perspective that kgray or summit could not be scum who scumread their teammate damo (which happens all the time here, bussing is generally rampant and they have daychat). Both of them were leery enough of xorxes on D1 that they could have justifiably moved from damo to xorxes if damo is town and xorxes is scum. And, again, given that xorxes null-reads them, leaving this out is best explained as an intentional misstep by xorxes to build his damo-Chaqa-foodcoats scum team.

So unless scum are being tricky, my obvious conclusion is that scumteam is one of: (Tom, worcej, Vecna) or (damo, [food, bozo, worcej, Chaqa])

Based on my previous townreads of Tom and emc/Vecna, I will for now focus on the second possibility, which gives me damo and, if I'm right about bozo being town, and worcej's claim goes unchallenged, that would leave food and Chaqa.

It might also explain why foodcoats was so agitated that I was "assuming" that Chaqa was town with my Neph vote.

foodnote: in what world would a townie reading my scummate as town make me annoyed? In what world would I as scum insist that a townie pay more attention to my scummate?

Can you explain your scum team guesses a little more? I’m a little confused on the reasoning behind then. Is it purely people who voted for you or weren’t online at EoD??

I explained in a previous post, but here it is again:

CASE 1: damo is town

If this is the case, scum would have been happy to lynch either one of me and damo, and so the only scumteam that could not do that is (Tom, worcej, emc/Vecna) because everyone else was here at EOD and could have moved to mislynch one of us. foodnote: how could we possibly know who was here at EOD? The game can quite effectively can be read from the bot. I have done so very successfully and have gone 3 and 0 as scum.

CASE 2: damo is scum

In this case, scum could have lynched me unless the two scum were already voting for me when damo voted. Or one of them was Tom or emc/Vecna who apparently were not here. That means in this case scumteam is damo plus two of (Tom, emc/Vecna, bozo, worcej, food, Chaqa).

Excluding my towreads Tom/Vecna/bozo, and giving worcej the benefit of the doubt about his claim, that leaves (damo, food, Chaqa). foodnote: what about kgray and summit? Why are they not factored in here? What about Nephthys, who could've been lying about his availability? But really, why would town!xorxes, having null-read kgray and summit, COMPLETELY miss the fact that they ended the day on damo, but could have been scum who, if xorxes is town, would have moved to xorxes to lynch him?

If you are town, worcej would be my top candidate to replace you at this point, because his claim was a bit fishy.

damo, regarding your case, if both you and xorxes are town, why couldn't kgray or summit move to lynch xorxes? I think Tom and I "locked in" our votes, but on the flipside, why couldn't Chaqa or bozo move to lynch you?

However, I think the answers are obvious: Chaqa and bozo are town, and kgray and summit are very possibly scum. xorxes' analysis has far more holes, and you've made me raise my eyebrow about kgray. I think we are all agreed that this could not be TvT, and I think it is unlikely it was SvS, so your points about xorxes are well taken. The thing that knocked down my read of kgray from townread to townlean was that she made no specific scum/town claims, even if she has been aggressive in her questioning. She may be clever scum. From a VCA perspective this is more likely, I think, than Nephthys being scum, who said just enough and little enough to justifiably vote for you at EOD. The other possibility is Vecna.

I think this may indicate the scumteam is exactly xorxes, summit_fever, and Vecna OR kgray.

Assuming

1 worcej is town due to claim
2 Neph is town else he would have caused lynch
3 Vecna is town because scumemc would have made an effort to vote

then

if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon giving only 2 possible scum teams, namely

food Bozo Chaqa OR kgray Tom summit

If Xorxes is scum his team mates must be 2 from kgray Tom and summit.

Therefore logically I must ##vote Xorxes

Assuming I am correct then whichever way he flips we are only one mislynch away from victory.

Hopefully game is solved.

@Xorxes sorry if you're town but if you are you will be happy with my logic.

[foodcoats]

@Tom Bombadil

After writing out that post and realizing xorxes' logic was far shoddier than I initially anticipated - I literally started my last post just to say, "xorx and damo not scum together" - I want you to go and read xorxes properly. If you are town, as you say you are, you better get your sword, shield and Pegasus and be ready to fight it out for xorxes or come to the side of town and lynch scum. You have claimed you do not want to lynch xorxes because he is such an asset to town, but he has made completely ridiculous statements both D1 and D2. Even if he is town - which he is very likely not; xorxes would not play so badly as town - he is not an asset when he is making up such complete garbage logic.

[Vecna]

I really want to scumread bozo for voting me, but I think it probably means he is town. He doesn't like to antagonize me when he is scum. Can't say the same for foodcoats, I don't really remember how he treats me when he is scum.

emc looking towny, I like what he is saying.

Tom defending me is always nice, so townie points for him as well.

So you think tom's scumgame is so advanced he wouldnt mind agitating you? so him townreading you instead is town? I dont really get the logic.

I don't like that post by summit.

Seems like bozo may have gotten them with a made up town read, so summit came up with some vague justification and more importantly tried to change the subject to kgray and Chaqa where townread justifications are easier to come up with.

Wouldn't call it "made up" but it certainly is just a gut read based on his body of work.

You find something odd about continuing to engage bozo?

First impression of summit is pretty good. Volume will hopefully keep up to mature into a proper read.

I think xorxes may be scum here. foodcoats has some good points and xorxes not bothering to get the facts correct about kgray's past games is somewhat suspicious.

##VOTE xorxes

And I think Bozo is scum. Not only this vote on Xorxes that to me look more like to be seem as "town who doesn't fear to push Xorxes" but also the quotes and the overall behavior.

##vote Bozo

This might very well be the reason why Rdrivera ended up dead. Was suspicious of Xorx and Bozo for independant reasons I think?

There is another scenario, where Xorxes was right that scum bozo wouldnt push town Xorx, but would be fine bussing his teammate under pressure. Would also explain the easily given townread.

Kind of sad Tombomb came in with the crew and killed off the fun, thought he was playing along with the dargo mention but sadly it petered out lol

I've changed in my time away emc. All the silly short stories and fun has been replaced by a more mature man.

You could even say I've evolved into ThomasBombadil

Not sure if I like this Thomas guy. And not sure he is town.

hmmm-hmm

You said you think kgray is in her town range because "she would avoid having an opinion on things" when she was scum. Whether this was a mistake or a fabrication, it looks like an example of scum level effort from you.

Yes, I thought I remembered a game where she was scum, but it turns out it was a game where I just thought she was scum (for quite a while, if I remember right). If you like to think that was a fabrication, or low level effort, suit yourself, I don't think I will keep repeating myself on this. I have many unpleasant memories of this type of dialogue with you and I know it doesn't lead anywhere.

probably not SvS

I find bozos observation about rivera interesting. If anything, I townread bozo for the hunting.

Hmmmm

I think food's analysis of Xorxes is genuine and I therefore townread food.

I think Tom's critique of food's analysis sounds as if it is townbased so I am also townreading Tom.

As for Xorxes's actual alignment I'm gonna sit on the fence for the time being.

I still think Bozo is the best lynch today.

All others have gone a bit quiet.

Hello?

More town posting from Damo

I think food's analysis of Xorxes is genuine and I therefore townread food.

I think Tom's critique of food's analysis sounds as if it is townbased so I am also townreading Tom.

As for Xorxes's actual alignment I'm gonna sit on the fence for the time being.

I still think Bozo is the best lynch today.

All others have gone a bit quiet.

Hello?

Do you agree with my analysis of xorxes? Do you think xorxes is more likely to be town despite his strange behaviour?

Can you explain your case against bozo? You previously indicated suspicion at his use of quotes without context, but bozo 1) does something strange at the beginning of nearly every game and 2) has now moved onto a pretty standard questioning tack. bozo does not seem out of sorts to me, but perhaps I've missed something.

I agree with your analysis of Xorxes but not necessarily your conclusion. Xorxes' lacks bozo's industry in researching previous games and his memory may just have been faulty. You have a case of sorts but I don't think it's particularly strong.

My bozo vote was based on his early posts with the quotes and no commentary but as you rightly say and as summit has also pointed out he has moved up a gear. I just have a feeling bozo may have latched on to your analysis to try and drive a Xorxes lynch. I am pretty confident they are not both scum and they could both be town.

My vote is staying on bozo chiefly because I'm not sure who else to vote for.

Willing to put Damo as a pretty decent townread after this. He dont produce this stuff as scum.

I think food's analysis of Xorxes is genuine and I therefore townread food.

I think Tom's critique of food's analysis sounds as if it is townbased so I am also townreading Tom.

As for Xorxes's actual alignment I'm gonna sit on the fence for the time being.

I still think Bozo is the best lynch today.

All others have gone a bit quiet.

Hello?

Everything about this post just makes me double-down on the xorx-damo scum axis.

Really? Everything? Reread.

Also this was a good reminder to strike against Chaqa. that post was bad.

I will not vote for bozo, xorxes, kgray, or food today
I

Like, I like the conclusions Tom reaches to a certain extent, but his motivations and deductions just remain mysterious and making me feel like I want to poke and prod.

Could be a way to protect Xorxes in a group of other townies. Not sure he would stick his hand in the fire to protect a scum teammate xorxes to this extent and go down with this ship though. White knighting? Possibly. Town also still possible.

I will not vote for bozo, xorxes, kgray, or food today
I

So, you think Food and Bozo are town, but disagree with their (town!) reads/belief that xorx is scum? If that's the case, on what basis do you town read them? Kgray also I think is suspicious of xorx.

if xorx flips town, this post will strike me as very suspicious. I'll keep it in mind and I'm not quite understanding your reasoning.

And this post once again looks majorly good on Chaqa. (unless he's playing the longgame to setup Tom after mislynching Xorxes, but would he actually plan for that? Dubious)

I will not vote for bozo, xorxes, kgray, or food today
I

So, you think Food and Bozo are town, but disagree with their (town!) reads/belief that xorx is scum? If that's the case, on what basis do you town read them? Kgray also I think is suspicious of xorx.

if xorx flips town, this post will strike me as very suspicious. I'll keep it in mind and I'm not quite understanding your reasoning.

I'll be honest, I don't know food that well, but I think his case on xorxes is well reasoned - I just disagree with a lot of it. Particularily around the idea that he was revealing that he knew Chaqa's alignment, and I think food is putting too much weight into xorxes first vote.

For bozo, I'm surprised a bit that he is scumreading xorx. But my townread of him is independent of that. My townread of bozo is due to his questioning of kgray and his observation of rdrivera (which he admittedly hasn't pushed since he got wrapped up in this xorxes case).

I'll also freely admit that I don't have a strong townread of xorx. Its a slight townread. I am, and I say this every game, willing to wait a little on xorx because I find he is very useful as town, and tends to be a little easier to catch as scum. Put simply a mislynch of xorx stings more than a mislynch of someone else, so I'll err towards someone else D1 when there is so little to go on.

This post I like. Pretty well thought out. Would be a really great post if done by scum to protect Xorxes because it really feels town indicative in how he words and reasons it out.

[xorxes]

Assuming

1 worcej is town due to claim
2 Neph is town else he would have caused lynch
3 Vecna is town because scumemc would have made an effort to vote

then

if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon giving only 2 possible scum teams, namely

food Bozo Chaqa OR kgray Tom summit

Why would all scum presumably be on one wagon if we're both town? This makes vary little sense. If we were both town the most likely scenarion is that they would NOT be all on one wagon.

And in any case, whichever wagon they were, most of them had the choice to change wagons to avoid a tie, which would not even look scummy, and then get a free mislynch. This part of your analysis makes very little sense to me.

If Xorxes is scum his team mates must be 2 from kgray Tom and summit.

Why not worcej? Why not emc/Vecna?

Therefore logically I must ##vote Xorxes

Assuming I am correct then whichever way he flips we are only one mislynch away from victory.

Hopefully game is solved.

@Xorxes sorry if you're town but if you are you will be happy with my logic.

Your logic is a bit off.

[Vecna]

Towny:

bozo - I don't thing he puts in all this effort as scum especially this early
rivera - starnge for me to townread him, but when he gets all huffy and puffy he is very likely town
emc - good observations that I associate with his town self
Tom - being sensible

Leftovers:

kgray - possibly town (she's playing nothing like she played as scum)
summit - possibly town. He was very suspicious of me most of last game, so his attitude this game fits with what I know of him.
Neph - nothing really

Heebie jeebies:

damo - him scumreading me this early is highly unusual, I don't recall it ever happening before even when I was scum, and certainly not when I'm town
Chaqa - he is not saying anything, and what he says I don't like
worcej - his vote for me, yikes, especially after what he said a couple of posts earlier

Scummy:

foocoats - his case on me is way too elaborate for the scant material he had to work with. I don't believe he actually misread the tone of my vote for Neph as badly as he portrays

Lol, and even after it has been said a ton of times, Xorxes continues to minorly townread Kgray over a scumgame that never happened

Yeah, even I find it strange that xorx continues to think kgray played as scum. Wtf is going on?

OMG, are people playing like Jamiet because he is the GM or what?

For those of you who don't understand (rivera at least did) that was meant as a joke.

I also didnt get it lol. Your play really suffers when youre under pressure, regardless of what your alignment is here. You made it way too easy for Chaqa to riddle your wall with major holes

Yeah, even I find it strange that xorx continues to think kgray played as scum. Wtf is going on?

OMG, are people playing like Jamiet because he is the GM or what?

For those of you who don't understand (rivera at least did) that was meant as a joke.

The language is a bit crude, but this is the meme this makes me think of:
https://i.imgur.com/6kGliTj.jpg

lmao

There was absolutely no indication of a joke.

You've been stating outright falsehoods or being nonsensical all game.

You're actively distracting town and not playing at all like I expect of you.

Fair, but people tend to flail around when theyre under huge ammounts of pressure.

There was absolutely no indication of a joke.

You've been stating outright falsehoods or being nonsensical all game.

You're actively distracting town and not playing at all like I expect of you.

Inability to detect sarcasm - scum.

I have to laugh at this.

And I don't think Xorxes is scum. And neither Chaqa to be honest.

But he did think Tom-B was scum. hmmm. (in before people call me scum whose team nk'd rdrivera and asked me to use that to lead a lynch on Tombombadillo)

foodcoats' D1 reads

Eddited out the enormous wall to keep this readable. Huh. Foodcoats sure is a LOT more active that he usually is. A wise person also told me yesterday that people that are using a lot of fancy newly made up words are 90% to be scum. He caught me using fancy words and I was scum. Anyways, put away the suspicions vecna.

If you are town, you should try to post a reads list before EOD, because it is also EON, and it will be good to get that data in for town tomorrow.

If you are emc, you should try to vote.

Guess the instant night is actually a good reason to post a big ass wall thing. He sure did have a lot of reasons to be suspicious of all his townreads though.

Flash wagon on emc?

Eh, I'm fine with either of these current wagons. Why?

So this is the real question. Chaqa being fine with both wagons, scumreading both. Was there. Knew damo's vote would tie it. Yet did not change from Xorxes to damo to untie it.

bozo and Foodcoats were also there and also couldve easily intied it in their last minute comments.

Why did none of you?

[xorxes]

To be honest, I don't wholly understand the cases of either damo or xorxes and how they narrow down the scumteams here;

If you don't understand my case, feel free to ask. I split it into two cases, case 1 where damo is town, case 2 where damo is scum. Which one did you have more trouble following?

damo's statement is much more straightforward and has fewer holes,

damo's case has a couple of very gaping holes. Like assuming all scum would be on the same wagon if we were both town. How does that not make you go "huh?"?

There are three major flaws I see in xorxes' reasoning:

1. xorxes makes a bizarre observation that scum!food would be agitated that town!xorxes would assume scum!Chaqa is town.

"Agitated" was probably the wrong word. "Excited" would have probably been a better choice. I made a very similar first vote last game and I don't recall you even noticing. This time you got very excited that I was apparently assuming that Chaqa was town.

2. xorxes' logic about the wagons doesn't take into account how scum actually play and makes assumptions about certain players that don't need to be made. For example, I routinely lurk exclusively via the bot when I'm scum for exactly this sort of reason, and I seriously doubt other scum players don't do that, too, so assuming that we "know" who was here at EOD is obviously stupid. Second, worcej never said he wasn't/would not be here at EOD, so far as I can tell, so xorxes is again making logical leaps to come up with a fake scum team.

We know emc was not here or else he would have voted. We don't know if Tom or worcej were here. We do know everyone else was here, because they posted. No assumptions there.

3. Finally, xorxes' analysis includes a blindspot about kgray and summit, both of whom he null-read at EOD and should be considered for possible scum as well. In xorxes' second case, if damo is scum and xorxes is town, there's no glaring logical reason from a VCA perspective that kgray or summit could not be scum who scumread their teammate damo (which happens all the time here, bussing is generally rampant and they have daychat).

Either one of them could have easily switched to vote for me to break the tie without raising any eyebrows if they were scum, so I'm pretty confident they are town. Obviously it could be some kind of double bluff to make me townread them, but the likeliest explanation, knowing that I'm town, is that they are town.

[xorxes]

OPINION POLL

Please add your name below.

I believe that worcej's claim is:

(A) Very likely true:
(B) More likely true than false:
(C) No idea:
(D) More likely false than true: xorxes
(E) Very likely false:

[foodcoats]

OPINION POLL

Please add your name below.

I believe that worcej's claim is:

(A) Very likely true:
(B) More likely true than false:
(C) No idea:
(D) More likely false than true: xorxes
(E) Very likely false:

Do not answer this if you are town. PR fishing.

[Vecna]

Something's on fire at work but it's on the server guys' plates now. That's a really shitty result. Xorx/Damo both voted their opposing wagons, so probably NAI on those two, but summit's vote is a little odd (and quite obviously was a dangerous one to make).

SvS Day 1?

Anyway, I have no reason to not just vote xorxes again. Nothing has changed to make him any less scummy.

##Vote xorxes

hmm that is quite convenient when he knew he'd look bad for letting the tie happen

[foodcoats]

OPINION POLL

Please add your name below.

I believe that worcej's claim is:

(A) Very likely true:
(B) More likely true than false:
(C) No idea:
(D) More likely false than true: xorxes
(E) Very likely false:

Do not answer this if you are town. PR fishing.

@worcej, if I am right about xorxes, this suggests they may have used an RB last night instead of double cop. You should shoot again today, in case.

[xorxes]

OPINION POLL

Please add your name below.

I believe that worcej's claim is:

(A) Very likely true:
(B) More likely true than false: foodcoats
(C) No idea:
(D) More likely false than true: xorxes
(E) Very likely false:

Do not answer this if you are town. PR fishing.

I will take that as you believing his claim is likely true.

Any town Vig has no reason to think worcej's claim is either true or false just because they are the Vig, so this has nothing to do with PR fishing.

[bozotheclown]

Towny:

bozo - I don't thing he puts in all this effort as scum especially this early
rivera - starnge for me to townread him, but when he gets all huffy and puffy he is very likely town
emc - good observations that I associate with his town self
Tom - being sensible

Leftovers:

kgray - possibly town (she's playing nothing like she played as scum)
summit - possibly town. He was very suspicious of me most of last game, so his attitude this game fits with what I know of him.
Neph - nothing really

Heebie jeebies:

damo - him scumreading me this early is highly unusual, I don't recall it ever happening before even when I was scum, and certainly not when I'm town
Chaqa - he is not saying anything, and what he says I don't like
worcej - his vote for me, yikes, especially after what he said a couple of posts earlier

Scummy:

foocoats - his case on me is way too elaborate for the scant material he had to work with. I don't believe he actually misread the tone of my vote for Neph as badly as he portrays

damo was scum and you were town in M55 and M1010 and damo did not scum read you early in either game, so why do you think him scum reading you early is scum indicative?

[xorxes]

OPINION POLL

Please add your name below.

I believe that worcej's claim is:

(A) Very likely true:
(B) More likely true than false:
(C) No idea:
(D) More likely false than true: xorxes
(E) Very likely false:

Do not answer this if you are town. PR fishing.

@worcej, if I am right about xorxes, this suggests they may have used an RB last night instead of double cop. You should shoot again today, in case.

If he was roleblocked, he does not get another shot. Maybe read the setup?

[bozotheclown]

So this is the real question. Chaqa being fine with both wagons, scumreading both. Was there. Knew damo's vote would tie it. Yet did not change from Xorxes to damo to untie it.

bozo and Foodcoats were also there and also couldve easily intied it in their last minute comments.

Why did none of you?

damo tied the vote with under a minute left in the day.

[xorxes]

damo - him scumreading me this early is highly unusual, I don't recall it ever happening before even when I was scum, and certainly not when I'm town

damo was scum and you were town in M55 and M1010 and damo did not scum read you early in either game, so why do you think him scum reading you early is scum indicative?

Because I expect his default read of me when he is town is to townread me. I may be projecting here, but ever since that game when we were both mammals, I have felt I have this special connection with damo.

[bozotheclown]

damo - him scumreading me this early is highly unusual, I don't recall it ever happening before even when I was scum, and certainly not when I'm town

damo was scum and you were town in M55 and M1010 and damo did not scum read you early in either game, so why do you think him scum reading you early is scum indicative?

Because I expect his default read of me when he is town is to townread me. I may be projecting here, but ever since that game when we were both mammals, I have felt I have this special connection with damo.

OK, but you said him scum reading you early is highly unusual, implying his default read of you when he is scum is also to town read you, which would make scum reading you early NAI.

[damo666]

To be honest, I don't wholly understand the cases of either damo or xorxes and how they narrow down the scumteams here; but given that they both conclude that the other must be scum, I think it is unlikely that they are scum together. I think these two play-by-plays will be incredibly valuable once we know the alignment of one of them.

damo's statement is much more straightforward and has fewer holes, and damo's observations, plus xorxes' blindspots, have made me realize that the likely third scum is either kgray or Vecna.

There are three major flaws I see in xorxes' reasoning:

1. xorxes makes a bizarre observation that scum!food would be agitated that town!xorxes would assume scum!Chaqa is town. That's patently ridiculous. If Chaqa and I were scum together, I would 1) never have made the argument I did in the first place and 2) would be happy if I thought town!xorxes was auto-towning scum!Chaqa. This seems so incredibly obvious that I am astonished xorxes would hit "submit" on a post with that written out. It suggests xorxes is not thinking about how town or scum would actually act, but is just looking for things to fiddle with.

2. xorxes' logic about the wagons doesn't take into account how scum actually play and makes assumptions about certain players that don't need to be made. For example, I routinely lurk exclusively via the bot when I'm scum for exactly this sort of reason, and I seriously doubt other scum players don't do that, too, so assuming that we "know" who was here at EOD is obviously stupid. Second, worcej never said he wasn't/would not be here at EOD, so far as I can tell, so xorxes is again making logical leaps to come up with a fake scum team.

3. Finally, xorxes' analysis includes a blindspot about kgray and summit, both of whom he null-read at EOD and should be considered for possible scum as well. In xorxes' second case, if damo is scum and xorxes is town, there's no glaring logical reason from a VCA perspective that kgray or summit could not be scum who scumread their teammate damo (which happens all the time here, bussing is generally rampant and they have daychat). Both of them were leery enough of xorxes on D1 that they could have justifiably moved from damo to xorxes if damo is town and xorxes is scum. And, again, given that xorxes null-reads them, leaving this out is best explained as an intentional misstep by xorxes to build his damo-Chaqa-foodcoats scum team.

Can you explain your scum team guesses a little more? I’m a little confused on the reasoning behind then. Is it purely people who voted for you or weren’t online at EoD??

I explained in a previous post, but here it is again:

CASE 1: damo is town

If this is the case, scum would have been happy to lynch either one of me and damo, and so the only scumteam that could not do that is (Tom, worcej, emc/Vecna) because everyone else was here at EOD and could have moved to mislynch one of us. foodnote: how could we possibly know who was here at EOD? The game can quite effectively can be read from the bot. I have done so very successfully and have gone 3 and 0 as scum.

CASE 2: damo is scum

In this case, scum could have lynched me unless the two scum were already voting for me when damo voted. Or one of them was Tom or emc/Vecna who apparently were not here. That means in this case scumteam is damo plus two of (Tom, emc/Vecna, bozo, worcej, food, Chaqa).

Excluding my towreads Tom/Vecna/bozo, and giving worcej the benefit of the doubt about his claim, that leaves (damo, food, Chaqa). foodnote: what about kgray and summit? Why are they not factored in here? What about Nephthys, who could've been lying about his availability? But really, why would town!xorxes, having null-read kgray and summit, COMPLETELY miss the fact that they ended the day on damo, but could have been scum who, if xorxes is town, would have moved to xorxes to lynch him?

If you are town, worcej would be my top candidate to replace you at this point, because his claim was a bit fishy.

damo, regarding your case, if both you and xorxes are town, why couldn't kgray or summit move to lynch xorxes? I think Tom and I "locked in" our votes, but on the flipside, why couldn't Chaqa or bozo move to lynch you?

However, I think the answers are obvious: Chaqa and bozo are town, and kgray and summit are very possibly scum. xorxes' analysis has far more holes, and you've made me raise my eyebrow about kgray. I think we are all agreed that this could not be TvT, and I think it is unlikely it was SvS, so your points about xorxes are well taken. The thing that knocked down my read of kgray from townread to townlean was that she made no specific scum/town claims, even if she has been aggressive in her questioning. She may be clever scum. From a VCA perspective this is more likely, I think, than Nephthys being scum, who said just enough and little enough to justifiably vote for you at EOD. The other possibility is Vecna.

I think this may indicate the scumteam is exactly xorxes, summit_fever, and Vecna OR kgray.

Assuming

1 worcej is town due to claim
2 Neph is town else he would have caused lynch
3 Vecna is town because scumemc would have made an effort to vote

then

if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon giving only 2 possible scum teams, namely

food Bozo Chaqa OR kgray Tom summit

If Xorxes is scum his team mates must be 2 from kgray Tom and summit.

Therefore logically I must ##vote Xorxes

Assuming I am correct then whichever way he flips we are only one mislynch away from victory.

Hopefully game is solved.

@Xorxes sorry if you're town but if you are you will be happy with my logic.

Excellent post.

I tend to agree that Xorxes being scum is more likely then TvT and summit almost certainly his teammate and kgray could well be the third 'man'. The other candidate, Tom, I am townreading. Outside chance of Vecna.

Comfortable with my Xorxes vote and when (hopefully) he flips scum we can lynch summit tomorrow and then progress from there. Slightly adjusting what I said before I believe we are a maximum of two mislynches away from victory. So I think we are safe even if vig screws up.