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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 pm
by xorxes
Day 1
Temasek22 (7) brainbomb kgray Jamiet99uk bozotheclown rdrivera2005 Chaqa damo666
worcej (4) BunnyGo Fluminator Balki Bartokomous Foxcastle
brainbomb (3) Vecna bo_sox48 Temasek22
Foxcastle (1) worcej
Chaqa (1) xorxes
No‑Lynch (1) Pjandy
Fluminator (1) e.m.c^42
Non-votes: Sulit
Day 2
Vecna (8) Balki Bartokomous kgray damo666* Fluminator* Foxcastle* Chaqa* xorxes* Vecna* bozotheclown
Pjandy (2) worcej* rdrivera2005*
bo_sox48 (2) BunnyGo* Jamiet99uk
Non-votes: bo_sox48 e.m.c^42 Pjandy BobMcBob
Day 3
BobMcBob (7) xorxes worcej bozotheclown BunnyGo Balki Bartokomous Fluminator e.m.c^42
e.m.c^42 (6) damo666 rdrivera2005 Jamiet99uk kgray Foxcastle Chaqa
Chaqa (1) BobMcBob
Day 4
e.m.c^42 (8) Jamiet99uk BunnyGo Fluminator damo666 Balki Bartokomous kgray xorxes bozotheclown
xorxes (3) e.m.c^42 Foxcastle rdrivera2005
Chaqa (1) Chaqa
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:14 pm
by xorxes
One of rivera or Fox is scum. I think rivera, but I could be wrong. They could both be scum if one is patient zero, but I doubt they are both the "knowing" scum.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:17 pm
by xorxes
I doubt Chaqa is scum with them, they would have been too obvious.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:18 pm
by Balki Bartokomous
xorxes wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:14 pm
One of rivera or Fox is scum. I think rivera, but I could be wrong. They could both be scum if one is patient zero, but I doubt they are both the "knowing" scum.
You're late.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:19 pm
by Balki Bartokomous
xorxes wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:14 pm
One of rivera or Fox is scum. I think rivera, but I could be wrong. They could both be scum if one is patient zero, but I doubt they are both the "knowing" scum.
Let's say one is town though. How on earth does the one who is town not suspect the other one?
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:20 pm
by xorxes
Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:18 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:14 pm
One of rivera or Fox is scum. I think rivera, but I could be wrong. They could both be scum if one is patient zero, but I doubt they are both the "knowing" scum.
You're late.
I still think rivera is more likely than Fox.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:22 pm
by Chaqa
Look at that Day 1 count. Xorxes is definitely scum.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:23 pm
by xorxes
Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:19 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:14 pm
One of rivera or Fox is scum. I think rivera, but I could be wrong. They could both be scum if one is patient zero, but I doubt they are both the "knowing" scum.
Let's say one is town though. How on earth does the one who is town not suspect the other one?
I will reread Fox. My impression from his back and forth with you was that he looked the more towny one.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:25 pm
by xorxes
Chaqa wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:22 pm
Look at that Day 1 count. Xorxes is definitely scum.
Because I wasn't there at EOD? That was the last day before I started working from home, so EOD time was impossible for me.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:31 pm
by Balki Bartokomous
bozotheclown wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:58 pm
I think my BunnyGo/damo theory still fits. kgray's vote switch from Chaqa to emc looks suspicious, but I have no idea how likely she is to avoid bussing. rdrivera or Foxcastle could have made an exception to their hard bussing to try to save Bob, especially with emc under a lot of suspicion.
I sincerely disagree that Bunny could be Scum (excluding Patient Zero).
It was a very important day for mafia. They were winning. Two mislynches in a row. Town was off track and flailing around. And Scum had at least one really strong counter wagon (EMC, and maybe Chaqa too).
To make matters even more ripe, nobody had much in the thread anchoring them to Bob or EMC, right? Both were low-volume posters. There were plenty of available easy reasons to go to either wagon. Scum!Bunny could have freely and easily voted to lynch EMC. No questions asked. Everyone had freedom because those two wagons were basically lurker wagons of equal suspicion.
Under these circumstances, with a dynamic, 7-6 vote that honestly I still thought was going to flip back the other way right up until the last second, I do not expect a bus. It was too important and too easy for scum to win that vote. I don't believe they would hand that vote to town when they didn't have to do so. And they didn't.
I encourage people to focus on the folks to voted for EMC on Day 3.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:33 pm
by Balki Bartokomous
xorxes wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:23 pm
Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:19 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:14 pm
One of rivera or Fox is scum. I think rivera, but I could be wrong. They could both be scum if one is patient zero, but I doubt they are both the "knowing" scum.
Let's say one is town though. How on earth does the one who is town not suspect the other one?
I will reread Fox. My impression from his back and forth with you was that he looked the more towny one.
(1) Who is to say there is one town and one scum? That's lazy.
(2) Why? Based on what? Foxy is smart. He's a good player. Why do you believe that you are able to sort him by reading his interaction with me? What is it in that interaction do you believe that Foxy could not have manufactured?
(3) Does the EMC flip tell you anything about my alignment? Does any change to your view about my alignment impact your view of Fox's alignment?
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:40 pm
by Fluminator
kgray wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:35 pm
@Flum: do you really think scum-bob would bus scum-Chaqa the way he did? His vote put him in second place. Now that we know emc is town, why wouldn't bob have just voted for emc to keep emc well in the lead?
Ok I'm back! After shaking off the disappointment in the result and in myself for being too cute, I think town is still in a fine position. Chaqa's saying the game is thrown to scum is weird when he originally wanted to hammer EMC yesterday.
I think the vote was too early in the day to be super alignment indicative.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:44 pm
by xorxes
Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:33 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:23 pm
Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:19 pm
Let's say one is town though. How on earth does the one who is town not suspect the other one?
I will reread Fox. My impression from his back and forth with you was that he looked the more towny one.
(1) Who is to say there is one town and one scum? That's lazy.
(2) Why? Based on what? Foxy is smart. He's a good player. Why do you believe that you are able to sort him by reading his interaction with me? What is it in that interaction do you believe that Foxy could not have manufactured?
(3) Does the EMC flip tell you anything about my alignment? Does any change to your view about my alignment impact your view of Fox's alignment?
(1) I didn't say there was one and one, what I'm saying is if you are the one telling me he is scum, that makes me suspicious.
(2) He had some good arguments, the wording of your posts compared to when you were scum for example. Also, your defense saying that as scum you would be lying and therefore your description of him does not count sounds wrong. I know he could have manufactured it, that's why I will reread.
(3) You were defending me very strongly, which obviously makes me feel good about you, but that's not something I should be letting influence my reads. You're not one of my top scumreads, you're just above Fox, at least that was until that EOD. I very much doubt you are both scum. That would be too much theater to keep up, even if only one knows about the other.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm
by Fluminator
That said, he is beginning to make me wonder if he actually is just... (trying to say it nicely) playing subpar this game.
I know he's often a smart person, and I feel like he's gone into "too scummy to be scum" a little too hard. And he was so over the top theatrical about the EMC lynch before it happened. So yeah, I don't think I'm ready to not scumread him yet. Every day there just mounting evidence in my eyes.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:49 pm
by bozotheclown
Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:31 pm
bozotheclown wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:58 pm
I think my BunnyGo/damo theory still fits. kgray's vote switch from Chaqa to emc looks suspicious, but I have no idea how likely she is to avoid bussing. rdrivera or Foxcastle could have made an exception to their hard bussing to try to save Bob, especially with emc under a lot of suspicion.
I sincerely disagree that Bunny could be Scum (excluding Patient Zero).
It was a very important day for mafia. They were winning. Two mislynches in a row. Town was off track and flailing around. And Scum had at least one really strong counter wagon (EMC, and maybe Chaqa too).
To make matters even more ripe, nobody had much in the thread anchoring them to Bob or EMC, right? Both were low-volume posters. There were plenty of available easy reasons to go to either wagon. Scum!Bunny could have freely and easily voted to lynch EMC. No questions asked. Everyone had freedom because those two wagons were basically lurker wagons of equal suspicion.
Under these circumstances, with a dynamic, 7-6 vote that honestly I still thought was going to flip back the other way right up until the last second, I do not expect a bus. It was too important and too easy for scum to win that vote. I don't believe they would hand that vote to town when they didn't have to do so. And they didn't.
I encourage people to focus on the folks to voted for EMC on Day 3.
OK, but as I pointed out, damo and kgray are the only remaining players who did not vote for Bob at some point D3, so unless they are the 2 mafia who knew Bob was mafia, at least one mafia was knowingly bussing Bob at some point D3, even though they may not have ended voting for him. Do you think it is more likely someone bussed Bob during D3 but switched to emc by EOD than someone bussed Bob and kept their vote on him? Or, do you think damo and kgray are the most likely mafia who knew Bob was mafia?
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:51 pm
by Fluminator
Fox does have a way of talking that makes him sound towny.
And Balki does have a way of talking that makes him always sound manipulative/scummy.
But Fox's meta case seemed quite cherrypicked, and when I asked him to dig up examples of Balki's towngame, he must have seen those other examples during that. He also started bringing up the possiblity of T. vs. T. right after the other quotes were made.
Plus there's still the sketchy eod behaviour and lack of interaction with scum that push Fox over Balki atm for me.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:58 pm
by Fluminator
It feels hard to believe Rdrivera and Fox would also both be scum because it seems to easy if that's the case, with everything lining up against them.
But even last eod I find them suspicious. They were happy to vote EMC eod 3, but suddenly heavily resisted voting him eod 4?
Considering a brunt of the case against them is that bussing didn't happen, you would think they would be very interesting in clearing up whether it was S vs. S so the entire narrative making them look bad would be squashed and people would start looking at other people.
It's almost like they wanted it to remain up in the air when it looked like he might get lynched.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 pm
by Fluminator
Chaqa as patient zero makes a lot of sense in my head as well.
It's not completely unreasonable that scum are fine working in tandem so they can do the excuse "we would never do that if we were scum" which I've seen come out of Rdrivera and Fox multiple times this game.
I remember there was a phase here where scum would kill whoever was scum reading them, and as everyone who suspected them died off, no one batted an eye because it was all "wifom"
Why not just try to save your partner and try to write it off as wifom.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:04 pm
by Fluminator
Normally I save these long stream of conscious posts for the God thead, but there's a decent chance I die anyway today after messing up the EMC lynch and being potentially discredited, so I just want to get as much out there before tomorrow.
Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy
Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:06 pm
by Chaqa
xorxes wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:25 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:22 pm
Look at that Day 1 count. Xorxes is definitely scum.
Because I wasn't there at EOD? That was the last day before I started working from home, so EOD time was impossible for me.
If you're town, this would be one of the only games I've ever seen where scum were all on the main wagons.