M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Fluminator]

Balki, ignore your children

[Foxcastle]

I have been tempted to retract my claim after flip, if I survive, but as I believe Rdrivera to be town, we'll be at LyLo and you'd just lynch me no matter what happened. So here's everything.

My crumb was “redirecting” in my first post, which refers to “fortress” in my role PM. If you search Wikipedia for Fortress, you are redirected to Fortification.

You are the impenetrable fortress, you are Madagascar. The TOWN Watcher.

I watched Balki on Nights 1 and 2, and I watched Bozo on Nights 3 and 4.

Balki, the reason I townread you so explicitly is because I was trying to get you NK’d so I could see who did it. My initial plan was to pick someone and watch them continuously, in the hopes that rather than depending on getting lucky, the scum would eventually come to me. If you were town (and before we knew scum would be taking a different tack on NK), you would have been a good candidate for an early kill. I stopped watching you when I decided you were scum.

I clued my actions in my EON reads. Day 1 is a little sloppy, since I put “look for” in the final paragraph, but in general.

Shit, almost missed my chance to hit submit on this!

I think Balki is town, but needs to be watched closely (not Watcher-watched—or rather, maybe Watcher-watched, but my point is monitor him, because scum-Balki can lead town around by the nose.) Jamiet, Brainbomb, Flum, kgray, xorxes, and proooobably rdrivera also seem like town to me.

I have been thinking about Worcej and how maybe he isn’t scum. I wasn’t wrong to call him on leaving his vote on me for no reason, but maybe I pushed back more than I needed to because I was irritated at him for it, and the ensuing conflict probably didn’t help me think as clearly as I should. As another point, his view that he laid out in post 1158 is too inane for him to be scum, I think—if you know you’re town, you should always try to survive over another player that you cannot know is town. And yet another, I doubt scum would proclaim that being right on a mislynch validated them as town. He has been surly and unhelpful as town before, but it would be nice if he would break out of that mindset, because if he’s town, getting himself mislynched for being an asshole is not helping us win.

Nulls are Bozo, EMC, Damo, Pjandy, and sulit’s slot.

I don’t have strong scumreads, but I’d look for it in Vecna, Chaqa, Bo, and maybe BunnyGo. Although I am also sure that not all of them are actually scum.

Balki still remains my strongest town read. I'm waiting for him to show up and solve everything. (And I will always say this, because Balki is tricksy, he's worth keeping an eye on, his scum game is good enough to make him a deep threat.) Damo has been promoted to my town reads. I'm going to put Worcej here, too—he's irritating, but probably not scum.

Jamiet, Xorxes, Kgray, Flum, and Rdrivera are townleans. Also upgrading Bozo and BunnyGo to townleans.

So that really leaves Bo, Chaqa, Pjandy, and Bob, and EMC as my scum pool.

Overall, though, I don't feel great about this, I think I'm probably wrong. I dislike that I don't have any strong scum reads.

My EON reads.

I had been townreading Balkie while also warning about the need to watch him closely. While I cannot point to anything specifically scummy on him, I am changing my recommendation from watching him to lynching him. He's scum.

Chaqa and EMC are also in my lynch pool. They are weaker scumleans. Excepting the Big B, I don't have a lot of strong scum reads, unfortunately.

Worcej I have gone back and forth on. He could be scum, but remains a townlean for now.

Flum, Xorxes, Jamiet, Bunny, and Damo are stronger townreads.

Rdrivera, Bozo, and Kgray have kinda slipped off my radar. I still feel they are mostly townie, but of the three of them, Bozo is the one that stands out to me as needing more scrutiny.

Let’s see… Bozo is my strongest town read at this point.

Rdrivera, Jamiet, and Bunnygo are townie. Flum is here too, but just behind them.
Chaqa, Kgray, and Damo are townleans (though I’m becoming less sure about Kgray).

Obviously, since I have only two scum reads below, I’m wrong about someone above this line.

Xorxes is a scumlean. I think he’s pointing things out and asking questions and engaging and then not doing anything with it, largely not making judgement calls, not following the thread of what the things he talks about would mean in terms of solving the game. My guess is Patient Zero: he’s not giving himself away through usual scum tells because he doesn’t know who his team is; he’s not solving game because he doesn’t actually want to find them.

I also think it makes a lot of sense that Xorxes and Balki are scum together based on the NK. They (being Balki on the main team) knew if they took out the usual veterans, they’d eventually be attention for not getting NK’d. Targeting less common early NK’s helps give them cover. Even more so, if Kgray is mafia, that would make it even more imperative to protect the veterans so that new scum wouldn’t have to fight town on their own.

Balki is scum. In his read of me on page 172, he totally drops the reason he scumread me hard for three days prior to EOD3 and instead relies only on voting patterns EOD3 and after? (Yes, my D3 votes looks bad.) He spent three days talking about non-confrontation and how great he is at using that to catch scum (using the very same phrasing as his most recent scum game!), and then all the sudden, his signature insight is not important?

(Side note: I also notice that he describes my D4 vote as “tried hard to lynch Bob voters.” Which is a mischaracterization: I voted for Xorxes. Is he not mentioning Xorxes because he knows Xorxes is Patient Zero and he doesn’t want to look like he’s defending Xorxes if he flips scum?)

Balki knew coming into this game that me being “non-confrontational” is NAI. He knows it from when he was scum in M46 and used it to push my mislynch then. He talks about how great that diagnostic is for him across a lot of games, so surely he would notice if there were exceptions, and surely he would remember having misused it as scum. Yet he still pushed it, as a certainty that it was scum-indicative, even though he knew that there was no connection between that aspect of my play style and me being scum. Lynch him.

This is vague, yes. That's not a crumb that you'd find without me pointing it out, and my clues on my Waterch actions were intended to be found after I'm NK'd without actually drawing the NK.

Finally, I hoped that some of the more observant town would notice my recent request to “toss me a coin” and make the leap from “toss a coin to your witcher” to “toss a coin to your watcher.” I had to keep it vague enough to tip off townies while still having a chance that scum wouldn’t notice and maybe I could avoid the NK to report one more watch.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Foxcastle: Just before the deadline, please tell us who you watched.

That way, since you got no positive results, it will confirm those people did not perform an action the night you watched them.

That will narrow down the scum pool (especially the Patient Zero pool) considerably.

Please confirm that you will do this?

[xorxes]

Neither Balki or damo here?

[BunnyGo]

and rdr will be voting kdray

Flum. Rdr is a mistake. Just look at his defense vs kgray. She’s fighting and disparaging. He’s offering to not be a liability. Don’t waste our mislynch on an easy choice.

[Foxcastle]

@Foxcastle: Just before the deadline, please tell us who you watched.

That way, since you got no positive results, it will confirm those people did not perform an action the night you watched them.

That will narrow down the scum pool (especially the Patient Zero pool) considerably.

Please confirm that you will do this?

I got ahead of you on this, sorry.

[bozotheclown]

Are Balki or damo here?

[Jamiet99uk]

@Foxcastle: Just before the deadline, please tell us who you watched.

That way, since you got no positive results, it will confirm those people did not perform an action the night you watched them.

That will narrow down the scum pool (especially the Patient Zero pool) considerably.

Please confirm that you will do this?

I got ahead of you on this, sorry.

I saw it.

Why would you watch the same person TWICE?

[bozotheclown]

and rdr will be voting kdray

That will make it a tie.

[kgray]

A mislynch is better than a tie, right?

[bozotheclown]

A tie would not be the worst thing since it does not cost us a mislynch.

[Foxcastle]

@Foxcastle: Just before the deadline, please tell us who you watched.

That way, since you got no positive results, it will confirm those people did not perform an action the night you watched them.

That will narrow down the scum pool (especially the Patient Zero pool) considerably.

Please confirm that you will do this?

I got ahead of you on this, sorry.

I saw it.

Why would you watch the same person TWICE?

I explained that.

[BunnyGo]

and rdr will be voting kdray

That will make it a tie.

Yes. If he does it’s not good.

[Fluminator]

BALKI LOG ON
VOTE RDR
FOX CLAIMED WATCHER

[kgray]

A tie would not be the worst thing since it does not cost us a mislynch.

Oh, never mind then

[bozotheclown]

A mislynch is better than a tie, right?

Not in this case.

[Jamiet99uk]

Patient Zero must act every night.

The Killer performs the kill every night while they are alive.

You would only need to watch a target once if they were one of these.

What the fuck did you watch the same people TWICE for???

[BunnyGo]

A mislynch is better than a tie, right?

Unclear. We need a no lynch tomorrow if we mislynch today. Sort of same.

[Foxcastle]

A tie would not be the worst thing since it does not cost us a mislynch.

Oh, never mind then

Oh, now that I'm that I'm outed, we're okay with a no-lynch plan???

[bozotheclown]

and rdr will be voting kdray

That will make it a tie.

Yes. If he does it’s not good.

A tie is OK here since it dos not cost us a mislynch.