I apologize in advance as this turned into a wall of text. But I think I got it.
BunnyGo wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:07 am
BunnyGo wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:07 am
KalelChase wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:25 am
I'm here. Just got back from seeing a live show of Critical Role.
I'm VT. Bunny knows this. Bunny has abandoned their normal rational reasons, and logical cases for hysterics. It is very unlike them.
I voted EMC because I thought they were scum... I switched to Bob for the same reason, but changed my mind about them later.
The team is Bunny + 1K + 1F
What about my reasoning that scum shouldn't have sacrificed EMC on D1 when they had at least 1 viable other wagon? If you are town (and you know it) then Bob's WHOLE WAGON was town. Not 1 scum could save EMC?
I am Town. Not 1 scum could join EMC on me? I think it's because they were already misplaced, and unavailable.
brainbomb created a three way tie between emc, Bob and yourself. Vecna broke it. It could very well be that none of the scum had the courage to break the tie and were hoping town would do it in a way favourable to scum. If both you and Bob are town, then there were good odds for scum that town would hammer home the mislynch and they didn't feel the need to move. There was a 66% chance the tie would be broken in favour of scum.
Which actually is a good explanation for D1 EOD and how emc got lynched despite multiple wagons. Scum just sat and crossed fingers.
That would mean, my Occam scenario holding, that the scumteam is probably two of Kalel, Kakarroto and flash, and one of Fox and Kit.
But if Bunny or Bob IS scum... meaning the wagons were SvSvT... and scum would've had to pile onto the only town wagon to make a save... then with the knowns we have, Kalel could be scum, on the town!Bob wagon. Bunny would also be scum, with one of Kitsune and Fox.
Except that Kalel was on that wagon at T-2 hours. emc only had 3 votes at that time. It's not like a big rush save. BUT HEY IT WAS KALEL WHO MADE IT 4-3 BOBvEMC. So scum!Kalel puts town!Bob ahead of emc.
And then Bob tied it and then Kit made it 5 for emc and then brain made it 6.
So in that case it's not likely to be scum!Kit who pushed emc to the forefront. So the busser on emc was Fox.
So the scumteam would be Kalel - who tried to make the Bob wagon happen - Fox - who was bussing emc - and Bunny - who was also bussing emc, but dropped off to damo - who as I have pointed out before was not even on Bunny's radar all D1 - with 13 minutes to go.
And okay now, if the above is wrong... if NEITHER Bunny nor Bob is scum... then there is still a 66% chance that Kalel is scum, because scum would be drawn from Kal, Kak and flash, along with Fox. That team would be Fox, Kalel, Kakarroto/flash.
And in that scenario, I think it is more likely to be Fox, Kalel, and FLASH, because Fox and flash are slinging hate at each other today. They have not done that previously as far as I recall. But they could now realize they need to bus and so Fox is slagging flash - "flash is lurky scum coming out now because they're going to win" - and flash is slagging fox - "Fox doesn't have an argument against me." I am just realizing they are not even having an interesting discussion, they are just slamming each other.
Does that make sense? I think that all makes. I think I fucking got'em. Two of them anyway.
Okay, all that said I think it is almost guaranteed Kalel is scum, in every scenario imaginable. They are not my biggest scum read but by POE they are in almost every possible team. Pretty much irrespective of anyone else being scum, Kalel fits in the team.
My assumptions though... I think that Kak is town. Like why would scum!Kak sit on Jamie D1 like that? And I think there was only one busser. If Fox or Bob is scum, does Kit come in and join the bus of emc and PUT HIM ON LEAD WAGON? I guess Fox and Bob COULD have screwed up and not found a way off emc once Kit and brain got on him. But overall I think I am right to make these assumptions.
I think it is Kalel, Fox, and one other.
##VOTE KalelChase