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Durga wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:53 am

Percy Williams wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:37 am

Durga wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:58 pm

##vote ND.

I think he is likely to be either BA or mafia because he claimed rb. Let's work under the assumption the BA didn't hold his shot (because, why would he?). Here are the possible outcomes:

1. Mafia rb ND and use their night kill on Chippe - there's only one kill so ND is BA
2. Mafia hold their rb and hits BA. BA kills Chippe.
3. Mafia rb ND and both Mafia and BA hit Chippe.

#3 is absolutely ridiculous and is the only scenario in which ND is town. Otherwise he's BA or a mafia who's fake claiming.

Unless they've totally lost it and withheld their NK

Or they role block ND, hit BA, BA kills chippe.

I know. What do you think of Fox saying that he thinks my logic was sound (or whatever he said) ?

The one where he used to agree he should be lynched?
It's actually that whole flavous Foxcastle interaction that means I Town read him. (Unless I review it and he left a loophole in the wording for him being BA)
I think Him and Flavius are not scum, but they could be BA.

No. In response to the same post you quoted

Now 5-2-1
lynch BA
5-2 tonight and 4-2 tomorrow.
We need to lynch Mafia-Mafia.
Lynch Mafia
5-1-1 tonight and tomorrow 3-1-1(this is worst case)
We need to lynch BA-Mafia or Mafia-BA
So, we can lynch Mafia or BA.
And now, this is looks like Fox/ND.
That is not WIFOM I think.
Fox-Connor(BA ND) is possible?
Or, Fox is possible to BA?(I have never read Fox as BA. So I need to reread.,)

Durga wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:53 am

ND wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:48 am

"Can you explain the rationale for the BA scouting?"

@Durga: It's as good of a theory as anything else really. If you think about it logically it makes sense for the BA to at some point in the game post N1 to hold a kill and scout. It would mean a no kill but at the same time it may fool the mafia and the roleblocker which is a threat to BA. It would also help BA to identify the remaining mafia PR or eliminate someone from being the mafia PR.

Also, Fox reads as floundering mafia to me. Much more floundering than when Neph put him up D4. So, there's that.

JUst to follow up on this. There's a chance we lose if we don't lynch BA today. Who do you think is BA?

Everyone is disqualified except those who haven't been RB and me (unfortunately). I think that list is ET, Fox, Flav. Pretty sure everyone else is disqualified.

I have no idea about Fox's partner.
Most likely is Connor.
Fox is likely to be lynched this some days.
But Connor didn't defend Fox at all and didn't push Fox so strong.

So, I think Fox is not Mafia
(There are remaining possibility of BA. But Fox is not seems to kill peter.)

And Chippe died last night.
Chippe objected ND last night.
And why BA claim roleblocked?
Just 1 person died last night.
That tell town he is BA.
So, I think ND is Mafia, not BA.
ND-Percy, ND-Connor, ND-Flav is more likely Fox-Connor.
So, I think ND is mafia.

We can lynch BA or Mafia, but I think Mafia is better.
They can help each other by flipping vote.

##vote ND

Ok, cool.
Chippe is a weird kill, for either BA or Mafia, so I don't konw what to think there.
Out of the many possibilities for what the Mafia and BA did, I think Mafia hitting BA, and BA killing Chippe is most likely. And I still think Fox is Mafia.

ND is strange, here are the main possibilities regarding him that I can think of.

1. He is town, was rb'd and someone else is BA.
2. He is BA, was rb'd and Mafia killed Chippe.
3. He is BA, wasn't rb'd and killed Chippe.
4. He is Mafia, Mafia didn't rb, Mafia and BA killed Chippe.
5. He is Mafia, Mafia rb'd BA, and Mafia killed Chippe.

These are the only possibilities that I think have any real likelihood. and I think 3, 4, and 5 are all still very unlikely.

Either way I think it's very likely Mafia know who the BA is.

As for who we should lynch, I think today killing BA is not as important as not killing town, since killing town now would result in a near certain loss, and because I think ND has a decent chance of being town, I'm going to play it safe and ##VOTE Foxcastle.

VOTE COUNT 6.3

Foxcastle (4) - ND, FlaviusAetius, Squigs44, connorcompton
ND (2) - Foxcastle, et

Unvoted: Durga
Not voted: Percy Williams

Currently FOXCASTLE is set to be lynched.

Slightly less than a day and a half remain in Day 6.

connorcompton wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:26 am

Ok, cool.
Chippe is a weird kill, for either BA or Mafia, so I don't konw what to think there.
Out of the many possibilities for what the Mafia and BA did, I think Mafia hitting BA, and BA killing Chippe is most likely. And I still think Fox is Mafia.

ND is strange, here are the main possibilities regarding him that I can think of.

1. He is town, was rb'd and someone else is BA.
2. He is BA, was rb'd and Mafia killed Chippe.
3. He is BA, wasn't rb'd and killed Chippe.
4. He is Mafia, Mafia didn't rb, Mafia and BA killed Chippe.
5. He is Mafia, Mafia rb'd BA, and Mafia killed Chippe.

These are the only possibilities that I think have any real likelihood. and I think 3, 4, and 5 are all still very unlikely.

Either way I think it's very likely Mafia know who the BA is.

As for who we should lynch, I think today killing BA is not as important as not killing town, since killing town now would result in a near certain loss, and because I think ND has a decent chance of being town, I'm going to play it safe and ##VOTE Foxcastle.

You laid out some possibilities, but what's your guess for what actually happened?

Okay, the squigs case was a bad conspiracy train. Obviously incorrect, and squigs cannot be BA.

But I can't help one last "but": Xorxes fakeclaimed the RB from N1. So scum were doing something other than using the RB to probe for BA, presumably because it put them at greater risk of being seen by the reporter. So keep that in mind when considering Squigs' claim, and keep it in mind when thinking about how the scumteam might have been strategizing.

Trying to reconsider, I still think ND is a good lynch. Perhaps more likely to be BA now. I think that if BA-ND were roleblocked, he would definitely claim, since it would possibly help him avoid the lynch today, and if he can get me lynched, he's well on his way to winning.

If ND is BA, then I still think Percy is scum. And then I'd have to think about et, connor, and Flavius.

A while ago Et was the link between all likely scum teams, and then we just... stopped. I'm pretty certain Fox is Town and Not sure on ND, but last game I didn't vote the common thread Mafia, and we lost.
##Vote ET

So as far as BA goes, we have a problem: Mafia most likely know who the BA is but can't tell us because they would be discovered. I Suggest we set up a way for them to communicate that information through the night kill.

Percy Williams wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:46 pm

So as far as BA goes, we have a problem: Mafia most likely know who the BA is but can't tell us because they would be discovered. I Suggest we set up a way for them to communicate that information through the night kill.

Ok.
I am not sure why I am common thread.
But, I agree with communication
ow we have 4 candidate of BA.

Flav
Fox
ND
me
Today, one of them is likely to be lynched.
So, we need 3 paterns.
What 3 are best?
1 No NK
2 Durga
3 ?
3 need to BA's candidate or not?
And we need to think BA's NK.

VOTE COUNT 6.3

Foxcastle (4) - ND, FlaviusAetius, Squigs44, connorcompton
ND (2) - Foxcastle, et
Et (1) - Percy Williams

Unvoted: Durga
Currently FOXCASTLE is set to be lynched.

29 hours and 9 minutes remain in Day 6.

Percy Williams wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:46 pm

So as far as BA goes, we have a problem: Mafia most likely know who the BA is but can't tell us because they would be discovered. I Suggest we set up a way for them to communicate that information through the night kill.

How do we know if the mafia agree?

How do we actually know they know who the BA is? If they don't, we're setting ourselves up to read meaning into action that doesn't mean what we think it does.

What if we create a signal that actually incentivizes the mafia to go for the outright win?

What if we create a signal that is impossible because it requires the mafia to kill one of their own?

And most importantly, how do we prevent a mislynch today? Because if we mislynch today, I don't see how town wins. Not just because our path for success become so narrow, but also because both the mafia (and the BA if he's free to act) can take action to swing things in their favor.

I think the mafia need to decide if they even have a chance to try to engineer a lynch of the BA, because they can't do it alone. And they have to decide before today. My view is that, at best, they can only put town in a position to play kingmaker between them and the BA.

However, they do have a chance to win, on pure cunning, for the greatest glory, if they choose to side with town today against the BA.

I think whichever mafia player is most scumread and in most danger of being lynched should tell us who the BA is if they know. The game then progresses like this:

We lynch the BA today, making it 5-2.
The NK takes us to 4-2.
We lynch the confessed scum, making it 4-1.
The NK takes us to 3-1 and it's a battle of wits, and the scum team even has an advantage facing off with 3 townies instead of 2. The mafia even get to kill the townclear and their choice of whoever their next most serious threat is.

There are no off ramps. If town tries to kill the confessed mafia first, we run the risk of killing the roleblocker, which means the BA would wreak havoc and ruin town's chances. Even if we don't kill the roleblocker, it comes out to 3-1 after we kill the BA second.

Foxcastle wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:53 pm

Percy Williams wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:46 pm

So as far as BA goes, we have a problem: Mafia most likely know who the BA is but can't tell us because they would be discovered. I Suggest we set up a way for them to communicate that information through the night kill.

How do we know if the mafia agree?

How do we actually know they know who the BA is? If they don't, we're setting ourselves up to read meaning into action that doesn't mean what we think it does.

What if we create a signal that actually incentivizes the mafia to go for the outright win?

What if we create a signal that is impossible because it requires the mafia to kill one of their own?

And most importantly, how do we prevent a mislynch today? Because if we mislynch today, I don't see how town wins. Not just because our path for success become so narrow, but also because both the mafia (and the BA if he's free to act) can take action to swing things in their favor.

I don't have answer of those questions.
I think Percy is same.
But, I think, Percy want to get information from this discussion.
I think, that will be useful to prevent mislynch.

##Call GM
Draw is possible?
If there are Town1, Town2, BA, Hooker
Vote
BA-Town1, Hooker
Hooker-Town2, BA.
I think no I can't flip.
And at night, Hooker roleblock BA.
I think we can keep same situation.