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Meant to include in this comment the note that Squigs is usually way more cautious, such that I think "cannot mislynch town" is more natural for town Squigs than the way he actually phrased it.
Lynching mafia or BA is the same thing as not lynching town... I don't get what you are saying here
This is the post I'm referencing btwND wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:26 pmSquigs has claimed that he has been roleblocked previously. If that's truthful then that disqualifies him from being the BA.Foxcastle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:21 pmOkay, I'll assume you're town. What do you think of the theory that the scumteam tried to setup a mislynch between us by trying to kill squigs (a move useful to implicate either of us, since scum-ND would want to make it look like he was being set up, and scum-Foxcastle would want to eliminate a potential vote for himself and keep Durga around to push you). But bounced off squigs because he's the BA.ND wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:18 pm
Could be a lot of things. BA and Mafia could have both hit Chippie. Mafia could have held the NK. BA could have held the kill and scouted.
It's pretty imperative that we don't mislynch today. I don't see how we win this if we mislynch. It's GG basically. But, all I know is my role and I am a VT.
Basically, do you think Squigs is a good candidate for BA?
I don't know but it's not alignment indicative because mafia can forget too esp if they know who BA is now
Neither. I recall reading it now, just before I started my commute home. I must have overridden the fact of it with excitement for the new theory, especially once I really got going when I came back to the thread after dinner.
JUst to follow up on this. There's a chance we lose if we don't lynch BA today. Who do you think is BA?ND wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:48 am"Can you explain the rationale for the BA scouting?"
@Durga: It's as good of a theory as anything else really. If you think about it logically it makes sense for the BA to at some point in the game post N1 to hold a kill and scout. It would mean a no kill but at the same time it may fool the mafia and the roleblocker which is a threat to BA. It would also help BA to identify the remaining mafia PR or eliminate someone from being the mafia PR.
Also, Fox reads as floundering mafia to me. Much more floundering than when Neph put him up D4. So, there's that.
Or they role block ND, hit BA, BA kills chippe.Durga wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:58 pm##vote ND.
I think he is likely to be either BA or mafia because he claimed rb. Let's work under the assumption the BA didn't hold his shot (because, why would he?). Here are the possible outcomes:
1. Mafia rb ND and use their night kill on Chippe - there's only one kill so ND is BA
2. Mafia hold their rb and hits BA. BA kills Chippe.
3. Mafia rb ND and both Mafia and BA hit Chippe.
#3 is absolutely ridiculous and is the only scenario in which ND is town. Otherwise he's BA or a mafia who's fake claiming.
Unless they've totally lost it and withheld their NK
I know. What do you think of Fox saying that he thinks my logic was sound (or whatever he said) ?Percy Williams wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:37 amOr they role block ND, hit BA, BA kills chippe.Durga wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:58 pm##vote ND.
I think he is likely to be either BA or mafia because he claimed rb. Let's work under the assumption the BA didn't hold his shot (because, why would he?). Here are the possible outcomes:
1. Mafia rb ND and use their night kill on Chippe - there's only one kill so ND is BA
2. Mafia hold their rb and hits BA. BA kills Chippe.
3. Mafia rb ND and both Mafia and BA hit Chippe.
#3 is absolutely ridiculous and is the only scenario in which ND is town. Otherwise he's BA or a mafia who's fake claiming.
Unless they've totally lost it and withheld their NK
Two issuesFoxcastle wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:58 amYou want to know if/what I think you missed in this?Durga wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:58 pm##vote ND.
I think he is likely to be either BA or mafia because he claimed rb. Let's work under the assumption the BA didn't hold his shot (because, why would he?). Here are the possible outcomes:
1. Mafia rb ND and use their night kill on Chippe - there's only one kill so ND is BA
2. Mafia hold their rb and hits BA. BA kills Chippe.
3. Mafia rb ND and both Mafia and BA hit Chippe.
#3 is absolutely ridiculous and is the only scenario in which ND is town. Otherwise he's BA or a mafia who's fake claiming.
Unless they've totally lost it and withheld their NK
Well, I agree that neither Mafia nor BA held their kill. A mafia decision to hold the kill makes no sense. And I don't see it making sense for BA either (as I pointed out just before EON): he would have been even closer to his win by killing either scum or town.
Mafia hit BA, BA hits Chippe. RB held. == ND is scum claiming RB for towncred. I don't believe town-ND would fakeclaim.
Mafia hit BA, BA hits Chippe. ND actually RB'd. == ND could be town. But I find it extremely unlikely that both the serial killer and mafia would hit ND. I think it's likely the mafia kill rather than the BA, on the off chance that Chippe was the BA, and if he wasn't, he was so far down the scum list after ND and me that he was more townread than not.
Mafia hit Chippe, BA hits Chippe. RB held. == ND is scum claiming RB for towncred. I don't believe town-ND would fakeclaim. See above for why these are unlikely choices for BA/mafia.
Mafia hit Chippe, BA hits Chippe. ND actually RB'd == In this scenario, ND is likely town. But again, see above for why dual Chippe hits are unlikely.
Mafia hit Chippe, BA is RB'd. == ND claims for towncred, but is actually BA.
My theory is that Squigs is BA. He's been pretty confident this game, which comes from good play and good solving, but also possibly from the knowledge that he's safe from NK. He wants to eliminate scum, but not so quickly that town actually wins and can turn attention to finding him; but also, he does want scum lynched, because if 2 scum get control of the game that threatens him. If he thinks ND is actually scum, he wants ND lynched. So he gets ride of Chippe because he would have been a likely Foxcastle vote.
The scum team, on the other hand, want to get rid of clears. But go back and look at Squigs, he's much more reserved on whether ND or I is scum, much more analytical. Probably not a good choice to rely on for a mislynch whether he's either BA or town. Durga, on the other hand, is hard hard scumreading both me and ND, but also has some personal blindspots on when it comes to ND, so maybe he's hoping she can be swayed to not vote ND "just because she's pissed at him" or whatever. And besides, if they kill Durga, her record could be used against ND just as likely as against me, and moreso, is subject to the "they were trying to kill and ND vote, so ND must be scum" narrative. Anyway, point is, Squigs is a better kill for the mafia team than Durga.