Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

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Foxcastle
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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6961 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:59 pm

Anyway, on to Day 2...

ITEM. Balki shows up a few hours after D2 starts with a longish post. In it, he backs off the Flavius wagon, and then throws out a list of scumreads based on “current mindset”: Foxy, Prado, Percy, Neph.

Would Balki list a scummate? I mean, I think he would, but did he? The other interesting thing about this is that Balki is kinda just amplifying a bunch of current reads from other people. When he said this, TrPrado was the lead wagon, Percy, Neph, and I each had one vote (and Neph had been pushed a little earlier, having 2 votes at one point). Or was Balki just trying to amplify a bunch of town wagons?

ITEM. Also in Balki’s initial D2 post, he calls for the judge to use his power. We know now this is a pretty anti-town thing to want, but obviously Balki saw that it was going to be a bad idea. He obviously didn’t expect it would catch et, though. But based on who the likely judge targets might have been, I think that means the leading contenders early on D2 were not scum.

To be self-indulgent for a moment, I think that’s a point in my favor as town. But I also think it’s a slight point in favor of Flavius being town, as well. Even though his wagon had the push on him had mostly left off, there was a lingering question of whether he’d been saved D1.

ITEM. Was Flavius coached by the mafia team in the night? It seems likely that there would have been a discussion led by Balki, Xorxes, and Damo pointed mainly at the newer players about D2 strategy. (Need to follow up on this...)

ITEM. A bit after Balki makes his reads list I mentioned above, Flavius comments on using the judge by putting an “obvious town” up against “someone we think is mafia” for an easy lynch. One, this looks scummy on its own. But Two, he seems to be using Balki’s reads list. “Connor is clearly the obvious town, TrPrado or FoxCastle [are scum]”... Hm.

Interesting that Balki’s response is not to scumread this, but to call it “utterly bizarre” and push back on Flavius reading Connor as obvious town, and express bewilderment at Flavius’s proposal. Balki says, “I’m super lost,” but that seems way out of character for Balki...

Flavius responds a bit later with a simple explanatory post. None of the whining belligerence that characterizes his responses to others....

I would call this a scummy looking interaction for Flavius.

ITEM. Flavius makes a scumreads list on P.114. It’s Foxcastle, TrPrado, xorxes, Espresso.

Had he been coached to bus Xorxes? That seems possible that the scumteam would have suggested that, with Xorxes reputation for being easy to catch as scum after a day or two...

But this read is very thin, he bases it on how much Xorxes has talked compared to M45 and M1007... (And then adds EspressoPatronum without any real justification?) And I don’t seem him mentioning Xorxes much at all before this... (This needs follow up to see if Flav actually has a valid progression on Xorxes.)

ITEM. On p. 120, Et townreads Flavius. He also townreads Chippe, Percy, and Teacon.

ITEM. On p. 122, Damo gives a reads list.

Town or Townlean: Balki, Connor, Durga, EP, Flav, ND, Percy, Teacon, Xorxes

Null/SK: et, Foxcastle (SK), MoscowFleet, Rdrivera, Teacon (SK), Tom, TrPrado (SK)

Scum: Chippe, Neph, Squigs, Foxcastle, Teacon, Tom, TrPrado.

So at this point, Damo is not bussing anyone directly. The worst read he gives his scummates is null. On Day 3, he scumreads Connor. This is after a variety of pushes on him to participate more.

ITEM. Damo’s little Day 4 spat over Connor’s name could be an indicator that they were getting chummy in the maf qt...

ITEM. Balki really tried to save et on D2. Why would he do that after bussing Flavius pretty hard on D1? (Possibly, he knew et was a better deep threat and Flavius’s tone might get him lynched.) This supports, slightly, Flavius being town.

ITEM. On p139, Connor calls for a tie or no-lynch. But continues to vote for et... This does not seem great for Connor, trying to hedge and have it both ways. But Flavius also goes for a tie, and then tries to have it both ways by encouraging people to not lynch Espresso. Fuck, this is cloudy!

ITEM. On p. 143, et makes a reads list of the scumteam as: Damo, Neph, Flav, Xorxes, and Percy. He’s got 2 in there. At 43 minutes out, he could still flip, so he was going for maximum WIFOM. Did he put 3 scum in his list? That seems bold... I think this points to Flav and Percy being town, and that leaves Connor as scum.

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6962 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:59 pm

D2 VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS.

Judge Vote called 32:37 out.

---Damo begins with a slight townlean on Espresso, so busses et.
---Connor follows Damo (the next vote, about an hour later) onto et.
---Damo moves to Espresso. Et had been ahead by 1, but that brought it to a 3-3 tie.
---When it’s 6-4 in favor of Espresso, Flavius adds to Espresso’s lead, making it 7-4.
---Xorxes makes it 8-4
---Percy makes it 10-5
---Moscow Fleet makes it 11-5, but Peter is subbed in and unvotes.
---Balki makes it 9-7 in favor of Espresso.
---Peter decides to bus, making it 9-8 in favor of lynching Espresso.
---Flavius moves from Espresso to et, tying it (but with 19 minutes to go)
---Chippe breaks the tie (also with 19 minutes to go).

EspressoPatronum (10) — TrPrado, damo666, Foxcastle, et, Nephthys, xorxes Percy Williams, Balki Bartokomous, teacon7, ChippeRock

et (9) — rdrivera2005, connorcompton, EspressoPatronum, Squigs44, ND, Durga, Tom Bombadil, peterlund, FlaviusAetius

Knowing I’m town, either Connor or Flavius bussed, or Percy didn’t.

Percy would have turned around the next day and bussed Xorxes. That’s inconsistent.

If connor was bussing et, why wasn’t he bussing Xorxes the next day? That’s inconsistent.

Flavius did bus Xorxes, though, right at the very end.

FUUU... This is hard to see through!

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6963 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:00 pm

NIGHT HAS ENDED
PLEASE HOLD


NIGHT ENDED EARLY
1

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6964 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:04 pm

Phoenix slept fitfully. The innocent dead appeared in his anxious dreams.

Poor Maya.... she didn't deserve to die...

Poor Mike.... Poor Spark.... It was as if they were trying to tell him something, but he couldn't make out their words. Some kind of knocking sound was distracting him and preventing him focusing on what they were saying.

Poor old Larry Butz... A klutz, but a good friend...

Phoenix bolted upright in bed, a cold sweat making his fringe cling to his forehead.

"Wait," he thought. "Larry isn't dead. Why was he in my dream..?"

A knocking sound, the same as the one in his dream, rang out through his apartment. A voice called out: "Come on Phoenix, open up!" It was the voice of his old schoolfriend, Larry Butz.

The Ace Attorney, still in his pyjamas, stumbled to the door. "Damn Larry, what does he want at this early hour?"

As Phoenix fumbled for the door key, there was a thud from outside.

He opened the door, and gasped in horror. He would never find out what it was Larry wanted. The body of his friend lay sprawled on his doorstep, a dagger protruding from his back.

Percy Williams has died. He was LARRY BUTZ, the VT.

DAY 9 HAS BEGUN
YOU MAY POST
1

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6965 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:06 pm

I think that makes it easier.

Now the real work begins.

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6966 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:07 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:06 pm
I think that makes it easier.

Now the real work begins.
Or maybe harder? Day 2 is giving me a real headache.

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6967 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:08 pm

For the bot:

Deadline moved 24H earlier

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6968 Post by connorcompton » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:18 pm

I really will try and look into both of you here but I can tell that today for me will probably end up in me just trying to convince Yav I'm not scum and it's Fox instead.

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6969 Post by connorcompton » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:21 pm

I think your 'reveal' near the end of night that you trusted Yav was a maneuver so that by saying it was so that me or Percy would just kill the other was in order to claim your trick worked after killing one of them yourselves.
That sentence made sense in my head.

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6970 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:29 pm

Fear not, Connor, this is going to be a thorough investigation of both of you. Starting with vote analyses.

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6971 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:29 pm

But your reaction to my walls of text being "I think you're trying to trick Yavuz" is... not inspiring.

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6972 Post by connorcompton » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:36 pm

My initial reaction was quite impressed, it pushed you further away from being Mafia and made it seem more likely it was Percy. It was really nice and helpful to see. But positive emotions never have the impact as negative ones so that's what came from my fingers first.
Also seeing Percy die, and considering how much I already trusted Flavuzovic (I fully expected them to die) I think it's very likely you are the last Mafia.

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6973 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:46 pm

So that we may continually refer to it, here is the complete and accurate vote counts of the game.

DAY 1

bozotheclown (11) — Percy Williams, et, damo666, Squigs44, ChippeRock, connorcompton, Carl Tuckerson, FlaviusAetius, rdrivera2005, Nephthys, Tom Bombadil
FlaviusAetius (7) — Balki Bartokomous, dargorygel, Foxcastle, MoscowFleet, TrPrado, Durga, bozotheclown
CruaaderReynauld (2) — ND, teacon7
ChippeRock (1) — EspressoPatronum
Percy Williams (1) — xorxes
No‑Lynch (1) — CruaaderReynauld

DAY 2

EspressoPatronum (10) — TrPrado, damo666, Foxcastle, et, Nephthys, xorxes Percy Williams, Balki Bartokomous, teacon7, ChippeRock
et (9) — rdrivera2005, connorcompton, EspressoPatronum, Squigs44, ND, Durga, Tom Bombadil, peterlund, FlaviusAetius

DAY 3

xorxes (10) — Durga, Percy Williams, Nephthys, teacon7, ND, et, rdrivera2005, Balki Bartokomous, Squigs44, FlaviusAetius
teacon7 (4) — peterlund, damo666, connorcompton, Foxcastle
Foxcastle (1) — ChippeRock
Percy Williams (1) — xorxes

DAY 4

teacon7 (7) — peterlund, et, damo666, Durga, ND, Foxcastle, Squigs44
Foxcastle (6) — ChippeRock, teacon7, Nephthys, Percy Williams, connorcompton, FlaviusAetius

DAY 5

damo666 (9) — ND, connorcompton, FlaviusAetius, Foxcastle, Squigs44, Percy Williams, Durga, et, ChippeRock
connorcompton (1) — damo666

DAY 6

ND (4) — Foxcastle, et, Durga, connorcompton
Foxcastle (3) — ND, FlaviusAetius, Squigs44
et (1) — Percy Williams

DAY 7

et (5) — connorcompton, Percy Williams, Squigs44, Foxcastle, yavuzovic
No‑Lynch (1) — et

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6974 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:05 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:46 pm
DAY 6

ND (4) — Foxcastle, et, Durga, connorcompton
Foxcastle (3) — ND, FlaviusAetius, Squigs44
et (1) — Percy Williams
Here's a thing to consider. And I think it's a big thing.

On N5, the scumteam roleblock ND and there's not assassin kill. So they must have known that ND was the BA. (Maybe the BA held the kill, but they had strong evidence that ND was the BA, at least.)

So on D6, the remaining two scum really need to kill the BA. Et is looking really good, so as long as they kill the BA, they have a good shot at the win.

Connor has been scumreading me pretty consistently from at least Day 4, so he votes me. He's been pretty iffy on ND, but has mostly been commenting that he thinks ND could be the BA (this is especially prominent during N5 when the Mafia QT would have been discussing who could be the BA and they end up roleblocking ND), but is otherwise pretty null on him.

And then, at the end, he switches his vote to ND. WHY?

Because he's scum and he knew ND was the BA, and he needed to kill the BA.

(You can see all his posts here. Just search for me and ND and you can see the progress. A tip: when you search for ND, put a space before it so it only picks up the name and not every instance of "and".)

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6975 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:21 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:22 pm
Let's rule out some scum pairings:

1. Xorx/Percy
Reason: Xorxes was on Percy literally all Day 1, and the the time of the initial vote was early enough to start a wagon on him. Then Xorx voted Percy again at start of Day 2 until the Judge acted.

2. Peter/Flavius
Reason: Moscow did not do much on Day 1. But one thing he did was park his only vote on Flavius and stay there all day. When he voted, it put Flavius in the lead 4-3-3 over Bozo and TrPrado.

3. Foxcastle/Flavius
Reason: Foxy Knoxy did not do much Day 1. But one thing he did was park his only vote on Flavius and stay there all day. When he voted, it put Flavius in the lead 3-2-2-2, making the wagon much more likely to end as a leader.
Interesting. Balki lists his scummates in points 1 and 2. I really doubt he did it again in 3. (But of course I would say that as scum. This continues to feed into my "Flavius/Yavuz are town" theory.)

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6976 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:33 pm

damo666 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:20 am
Words of Wisdom:

Fox is town
ND is BA
Connor is scum
Teacon is more likely scum than Fox
Flav is scum
Neph is Judge
I am VT
et, Durga & Squigs prob town
Percy scum
Chips scum
Peter town I guess by POE
I need to look at Damo and decide if he ever puts his scummates on his reads as scum...

Leaving aside ND (he called that) and Teacon (because this was in the judge vote with me), he mixes whether he calls town innocent or guilty, but he seems to only call scum innocent?

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6977 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:44 pm

One of the biggest points in favor me not being scum, I think, is how early and consistently the scumteam tried to get me lynched.

This is a search of every time the scum team mentions me.

It starts out of nowhere from Balki on p. 63. Before that, Xorxes and et had both expressed that they wanted to 'look into Fox' or whatever. But the first time it comes up is Balki. And Balki is really the main push on me, so you have to consider whether Balki would actually push a bus that hard on a teammate. He scumreads or votes me on pages 112, 163, 188 (asserting I'm scum with teacon), 222, 225 (a big case),

Damo starts in on Day 2. (Throwing shade in his list of reads on p. 122) He calls for the BA to assassinate me on Night 2. He keeps suggesting my lynch through Day 3, on pages 173, 174, 211 (but then hedges on 212). And then when my lynch is up on Day 4, he comes around to townreading me. Not just townreading me, passionately trying to save me. I don't think scum come to their scummate's rescue like that. Yes, the do vote to save them, but they don't get too involved.

Xorxes starts out saying he wants to investigate me, and then gave me a weak townlean in Day 2 that lasts through Night 2. (Which Balki pushes back on on page 161.) Xorxes comes around to scumreading me on D3 with the claim that TrPrado had guilty scanned me.

Et gives me a null reading (with shade) on N2. And then he doesn't mention it much, but he chimes in on Day 3 with "I thought Fox is scumiest before Rdr's claim." Puts me at the bottom of his null reads, right above scum on page 192. He's hedgy about me and talks a lot about how he had thought I was scum, but never seems to actually think that in the moment. But he gets around to it on Day 4 on page 241 (asserting that Teacon and I both could be scum, but then votes teacon, what?), then again on 249. Then on page 292 includes me in most of his potential scumteams (reiterating those lists on 305), and then claiming it's me and Connor on 306. Then he includes me in more likely final scum teams on 315.

Peter finally gets around to me on Night 4. He claims the scum team is Percy, Damo, Fox, Flav. He's already listing Damo there. Would he really list 2 of his scummates?

So all known scum got in on the action of scumreading me. And while bussing can be a good strategy, if I'm scum, you have to accept that the entire scumteam would put that kind of pressure so consistently on one of their teammates.

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6978 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:05 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:33 pm
damo666 wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:20 am
Words of Wisdom:

Fox is town
ND is BA
Connor is scum
Teacon is more likely scum than Fox
Flav is scum
Neph is Judge
I am VT
et, Durga & Squigs prob town
Percy scum
Chips scum
Peter town I guess by POE
I need to look at Damo and decide if he ever puts his scummates on his reads as scum...

Leaving aside ND (he called that) and Teacon (because this was in the judge vote with me), he mixes whether he calls town innocent or guilty, but he seems to only call scum innocent?
Going to follow up on this immediately...

On page 122, Damo puts together a long reads list. He town or null reads all his scummates. (He also townleans both Connor and Flav.)

He puts another list together on page 211. He continues to townread Xorxes. He scumreads Balki, but this is after Rdrivera's reveal, so he's bussing a publicly implicated teammate. He does weakly scumread Peter here, also. So that does mean that he will put scummates in his guilty lists. Okay.

Another thing... On Day 3, he comes out and makes a naked vote on Flavius right out of the gate. He hadn't voted for Flavius before. But then the stuff with Balki starts to roll, and by the time he puts that list together on page 211, Xorxes wagon is already high and looking likely to roll. And yet he STILL sits on Flavius.

If you're gonna bus, why not bus one of the two scum up for the lynch who might actually go down?

So even though he put Peter on that list, it's clear Damo does not like to bus his scummates... And the problem with that is that he's clearly listing Connor as scum in that list on page 264.

Finally, on page 303 (start of Day 5 and clear he's going to be lynched), he lists the scum (alphabetically as):
Connor
Chips
Flav
ND
Squigs

Which includes whichever of you is scum, so... This exercise has probably been useless.

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6979 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:06 pm

I think you are both in timezones that are about 6-8 hours ahead of me?

So hopefully we can engage tomorrow morning (for me, afternoon for you), because whichever one of you is town, I need your help.

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Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

#6980 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:07 pm

Did

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