MINI MAFIA V GAME THREAD -- The House of Black and White

[Claesar]

I read all your posts and have a few reads to share. They're not actually reads, because I'm an analyser. I don't do vibes, only evidence.

First of all, I need to echo the sentiment that Ike's post #61 looks scummy. As someone who likes to solve mysteries, being town is the best. Especially in a vanilla set-up, there's really no allure to being mafia other than deceiving people. You know everything from the start, so there's no scumhunting. No excitement. Unless Ike is the type of player who stabs often in Diplomacy (has anyone played with him?), I consider this a small mafia sign.


There's one thing far worse though. Let's look at the following options:

1. We randomly kill someone every round. No discussion, just random. Our chance of winning is: 27%.
2. We no-lynch every round. Our chance of winning is 0%.
3. We no-lynch D1, but then start killing randomly. Win: Obviously less than 27%!!
   
   
   You know who would be happy with NL? Scum! I will reread to see who advocated most for this and then vote for them.

[Claesar]

Oh wow, I actually have to correct my previous post. Because we have an odd number, our random win chance is actually better if we NL in the first round: 35%!

Could someone who understands statistics check this for me? It feels wrong, but it's probably explained because we'd otherwise end up with two players in the final round which is then a wash (as it's automatically NL).

So I guess I sort-of retract my scumread on the NL camp. Nonetheless, how do we arrange NL? Especially with half the players in bed. I think we'd just give the power to Mafia and grant them a 'free NK', so to say. I still think it's bad to not lynch anyone.

[Jamiet99uk]

I do not favour a No Lynch.

Claesar looks very forced. He earns 1 scumtoken.

[brainbomb]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT 1.1
Jamiet99uk (2) dargorygel, Ryast
EMC (2) Ezio, Moscowfleet
RagingIke (1) Vaporwave
Dargorygel (1) RagingIke

PercyWilliams (1) Squiggs

No Lynch (1) Ezio
Unvoted (1) Jamiet99uk

Not Voting (2) Claesar, PercyWilliams

2 hours and 15 minutes remain

[Jamiet99uk]

So I guess I sort-of retract my scumread on the NL camp. Nonetheless, how do we arrange NL? Especially with half the players in bed. I think we'd just give the power to Mafia and grant them a 'free NK', so to say. I still think it's bad to not lynch anyone.

Who was in this camp, Claesar?

Can you remember their names?

[Jamiet99uk]

##CALL GM

You have Ezio voting twice.

[Jamiet99uk]

##Vote Claesar

[brainbomb]

##CALL GM

You have Ezio voting twice.

ah yes, good eye. my bad

[brainbomb]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT 1.2
Jamiet99uk (2) dargorygel, Ryast
EMC (2) Ezio, Moscowfleet
RagingIke (1) Vaporwave
Dargorygel (1) RagingIke
Claesar (1) Jamiet99uk
PercyWilliams (1) Squiggs


Not Voting (2) Claesar, PercyWilliams

1 hour and 40 minutes remain

[e.m.c^42]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT 1.2
Jamiet99uk (2) dargorygel, Ryast
EMC (2) Ezio, Moscowfleet
RagingIke (1) Vaporwave
Dargorygel (1) RagingIke
Claesar (1) Jamiet99uk
PercyWilliams (1) Squiggs


Not Voting (2) Claesar, PercyWilliams

1 hour and 40 minutes remain

I believe I also haven't voted, and that Claesar's voting for Squigs?

[brainbomb]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT 1.2 AMENDED
Jamiet99uk (2) dargorygel, Ryast
EMC (2) Ezio, Moscowfleet
RagingIke (1) Vaporwave
Dargorygel (1) RagingIke
Claesar (1) Jamiet99uk
PercyWilliams (1) Squiggs
Squiggs (1) Claesar

Not Voting (2) EMC, PercyWilliams

1 hour and 30 min remain

[Claesar]

Testpost to see how many hours that is in my timezone.

[Claesar]

Oh, that's weird. Deadline is an hour later than I thought.

[e.m.c^42]

I set an alarm to wake up early for this

and there's no one here lmao

[e.m.c^42]

Oh Claesar, you're here

Were you joking with the no-lynch, or were you serious?

[Claesar]

So I guess I sort-of retract my scumread on the NL camp. Nonetheless, how do we arrange NL? Especially with half the players in bed. I think we'd just give the power to Mafia and grant them a 'free NK', so to say. I still think it's bad to not lynch anyone.

Who was in this camp, Claesar?

Can you remember their names?

If I had to guess now, I'll say Ezio and Ryast. I'll reread in half an hour.

[Claesar]

Oh Claesar, you're here

Were you joking with the no-lynch, or were you serious?

I did the calculation. Unless I made an error, it's mathematically better not to lynch. That said, I don't think we can enforce it. So we should make sure we kill a suspect rather than let the mob control the lynch EOD.

[e.m.c^42]

Oh Claesar, you're here

Were you joking with the no-lynch, or were you serious?

I did the calculation. Unless I made an error, it's mathematically better not to lynch. That said, I don't think we can enforce it. So we should make sure we kill a suspect rather than let the mob control the lynch EOD.

there's something wrong with this, but I can't tell what :D

[Claesar]

Oh Claesar, you're here

Were you joking with the no-lynch, or were you serious?

I did the calculation. Unless I made an error, it's mathematically better not to lynch. That said, I don't think we can enforce it. So we should make sure we kill a suspect rather than let the mob control the lynch EOD.

there's something wrong with this, but I can't tell what :D

If you don't trust my calculation, check it. Do the math. You'll see I'm right.

Other than that, I'm saying it's hard to actually enforce NL. Someone could mess it up at the last moment. Unless I misunderstand how NL works.

[Claesar]

If there voting is like this:

No lynch: 8 votes
Claesar: 3 votes

I still die, right?

We have to tie the votes to prevent a lynch, and I think it's bad idea to try for that even though it gives us the best winrate with random voting.