Mafia 41 - Sid Meiers Civilizaton Mafia - Official Game Thread

[damo666]

Not 100% sure Worcej?

[worcej]

Not 100% sure Worcej?

Not anymore. I was confident the no lynch was the wisest decision for us and everyone was like 'nope, you're dumb' (paraphrasing significantly) and we are now we're at 4-3-1 and 2 kills will easily, and most likely, make is 2-3-1 which pretty much means we lose.

I scum read the fuck out of Durga and Bozo for their stance of against the no-lynch. No lynch was the worst possible thing for scum and they turned it enough so that the rest of the town believed them. The only way it made any sense to be good is if we got the SK, and we didn't. So we gambled and got fucked.

I feel like I now have to choose who I want to win - scum or the SK...

[damo666]

Not 100% sure Worcej?

Not anymore. I was confident the no lynch was the wisest decision for us and everyone was like 'nope, you're dumb' (paraphrasing significantly) and we are now we're at 4-3-1 and 2 kills will easily, and most likely, make is 2-3-1 which pretty much means we lose.

I scum read the fuck out of Durga and Bozo for their stance of against the no-lynch. No lynch was the worst possible thing for scum and they turned it enough so that the rest of the town believed them. The only way it made any sense to be good is if we got the SK, and we didn't. So we gambled and got fucked.

I feel like I now have to choose who I want to win - scum or the SK...

So you think SK will kill me and scum kill Jamie?

[Jamiet99uk]

@Foxcastle:

Are you protecting me?

[Jamiet99uk]

Sorry Foxcastle I see you answered that. I missed a page.

[Jamiet99uk]

I retract my statement, I have found a way for us to win regardless.

Are you going to tell us?

[damo666]

I retract my statement, I have found a way for us to win regardless.

Are you going to tell us?

Yeah. C'mon Neph. We are all ears.

[bozotheclown]

So to confirm where things stand,

4/3/1

Damo looks hardscum RN
SK hits damo
I don't think anyone townreads him now after bozo's was conditional on LQ being scum.

Fox is going to save Jamie
Jamie reads Fox
Trackers tracks Fox

Fox being an SK requires too many leaps and too much luck on his part.

Bozo outed as SK
If he doesn't kill scum we can easily lynch him and throw the game to scum.

This post gives me the feeling Nephthys is scum trying to get the SK to kill a town damo. That would make Nephthys and Foxcastle a scum pair.

[worcej]

FWIW - here is my current feelings/reads on the game. Some of this is already known/public fact, but I am compiling it for the sake of it all. I am not waiting until EON because quite frankly it doesn't matter due to depending on the SK to keep the game alive.

1. Jaime is town. No CC to his claim, the only confirmed town role.
2. There is a scum in Damo or Fox. At this point, I am leaning to Fox as the scum.
   • If Damo is town, he is probably VT. If scum, obviously UB.
   • I believe Fox is either town or scum, both of which being the doctor.
   • There is an outside chance both damo and fox are scum, but I consider this to be rather low because it would expose them too easily based on the lie that they pulled off. The only benefit would've been if the SK hit Jaime on that night.
3. Durga is town. I am usually wrong on her. Going into tin-foil theory, it would be weird for this spot to be scum with the fact it has been subbed now twice.
4. One of the scum is the Vikings. So they are a watcher now for the scum.
   • This is based on the flavor mostly, but I believe they used the strongarm move on Crimson thinking that he was hiding as the Mason.
   • Yes, this is very WIFOM. Don't hate.
   • Regardless, this puts a scum among damo/bozo/Neph/Fox. My money is on bozo. Details are below (by process of elimination)
5. The SK is in control now that we lynched a town and made it 4-3-1. At 2-3-1, it will have to be the remaining town to choose who wins, the SK or Scum. I don't see a win in the game for us anymore based on this.
6. Based solely on how they are coming off, which is confidence about how to win, I peg Neph as the SK. He can still win, while we cannot.
7. By extension, this leaves Demon/damo as the last scum. I am fairly sure it's Demon is the last scum of the two.
   • How he got rid of Squigs quickly makes sense. It was a good move to get towncred.
   • He was also anti no-lynch, which again only helped scum.
   • Biggest reason is my role is Poland and Damo claimed Portugal - both of which are VTs and I believe all the boring VT roles were assigned in this game. More WIFOM, but that's my specialty.

So in summary:
Town: Jaime, Durga, Damo, Myself
Scum: Fox, bozo, Demon
SK: Neph

Hope you are accurate with your kill Neph. Any chance I can win depends on you and scum being dumb.

[Foxcastle]

I retract my statement, I have found a way for us to win regardless.

Are you going to tell us?

Yeah. C'mon Neph. We are all ears.

If both SK and Mafia hit Town (which is the context for this comment), then on Day 5 we are at 2-3-1. (Assuming they hit different targets.)

In order to win then, we'd absolutely have to lynch scum (2-3 is Town auto-loss), to go into Night 5 at 2-2-1. But then what?

SK hits scum, scum hit SK
Day 6 starts 2-1-1, and we have to lynch scum again (2-1 after the lynch if we get rid of SK, 1-1 after the NK, scum auto-win). So Night 6 start 2-0-1, which point SK takes it to 1-1, and SK wins.

SK hits scum, scum hit Town

Day 6 starts 1-2-1. Scum voting together could tie it, but also if the SK jumps last minute to join them, it's 0-2-1, which is SK win. So No-lynch is the only option.

So Night 6 is 1-2-1 and we have opened a new branch of possibilities...
SK hits scum, scum hit SK: 1-1-1, SK wins.
SK hits scum, scum hit town; or SK hits town, scum hit SK; or both SK and scum hit town: 0-1-1, and SK wins.

(Some of these assume that the SK doesn't manage to kill the scum carrying out the NK, so that's an additional complication.)

SK hits town, scum hit town

0-2-1, SK autowin.
Or 1-2-1, which is the SK autowin scenarios above.

SK hits town, scum hit SK

1-2-1, SK autowin scenarios above.

-------------

Someone check my math, but I think if SK and Mafia both hit town, SK auto wins...

Unless you meant something else, Neph?

[Foxcastle]

And I didn't take the jailer into account above, because it was too many options.

[bozotheclown]

@worcej:

"This is based on the flavor mostly, but I believe they used the strongarm move on Crimson thinking that he was hiding as the Mason."

What do you mean by hiding?

"Regardless, this puts a scum among damo/bozo/Neph/Fox. My money is on bozo. Details are below (by process of elimination)"

There is a discrepancy here, you are already said damo or Foxcastle is scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

• This is based on the flavor mostly, but I believe they used the strongarm move on Crimson thinking that he was hiding as the Mason.

What?

The Masons don't get a hiding ability.

[damo666]

Are you going to tell us?

Yeah. C'mon Neph. We are all ears.

If both SK and Mafia hit Town (which is the context for this comment), then on Day 5 we are at 2-3-1. (Assuming they hit different targets.)

In order to win then, we'd absolutely have to lynch scum (2-3 is Town auto-loss), to go into Night 5 at 2-2-1. But then what?

SK hits scum, scum hit SK
Day 6 starts 2-1-1, and we have to lynch scum again (2-1 after the lynch if we get rid of SK, 1-1 after the NK, scum auto-win). So Night 6 start 2-0-1, which point SK takes it to 1-1, and SK wins.

SK hits scum, scum hit Town

Day 6 starts 1-2-1. Scum voting together could tie it, but also if the SK jumps last minute to join them, it's 0-2-1, which is SK win. So No-lynch is the only option.

So Night 6 is 1-2-1 and we have opened a new branch of possibilities...
SK hits scum, scum hit SK: 1-1-1, SK wins.
SK hits scum, scum hit town; or SK hits town, scum hit SK; or both SK and scum hit town: 0-1-1, and SK wins.

(Some of these assume that the SK doesn't manage to kill the scum carrying out the NK, so that's an additional complication.)

SK hits town, scum hit town

0-2-1, SK autowin.
Or 1-2-1, which is the SK autowin scenarios above.

SK hits town, scum hit SK

1-2-1, SK autowin scenarios above.

-------------

Someone check my math, but I think if SK and Mafia both hit town, SK auto wins...

Unless you meant something else, Neph?

Why are you helping SK?

[Foxcastle]

Yeah. C'mon Neph. We are all ears.

If both SK and Mafia hit Town (which is the context for this comment), then on Day 5 we are at 2-3-1. (Assuming they hit different targets.)

In order to win then, we'd absolutely have to lynch scum (2-3 is Town auto-loss), to go into Night 5 at 2-2-1. But then what?

SK hits scum, scum hit SK
Day 6 starts 2-1-1, and we have to lynch scum again (2-1 after the lynch if we get rid of SK, 1-1 after the NK, scum auto-win). So Night 6 start 2-0-1, which point SK takes it to 1-1, and SK wins.

SK hits scum, scum hit Town

Day 6 starts 1-2-1. Scum voting together could tie it, but also if the SK jumps last minute to join them, it's 0-2-1, which is SK win. So No-lynch is the only option.

So Night 6 is 1-2-1 and we have opened a new branch of possibilities...
SK hits scum, scum hit SK: 1-1-1, SK wins.
SK hits scum, scum hit town; or SK hits town, scum hit SK; or both SK and scum hit town: 0-1-1, and SK wins.

(Some of these assume that the SK doesn't manage to kill the scum carrying out the NK, so that's an additional complication.)

SK hits town, scum hit town

0-2-1, SK autowin.
Or 1-2-1, which is the SK autowin scenarios above.

SK hits town, scum hit SK

1-2-1, SK autowin scenarios above.

-------------

Someone check my math, but I think if SK and Mafia both hit town, SK auto wins...

Unless you meant something else, Neph?

Why are you helping SK?

Because if I'm doing this math right, town and mafia are both fucked and the SK is about to win anyway and I assume he knows it, so I want everyone to know it. He would be stupid to not have at least looked at these options, and if the mafia team isn't doing this already, I want to make sure they see it, because it looks like their chances and town's might rest on mafia holding their kill.

[Jamiet99uk]

Who
Shall
I
Scan
??

[damo666]

the SK !!!

[Foxcastle]

As I plot out more paths for how this could go, MANY of them lead to SK auto wins. So I agree with Damo, finding the SK is a higher priority than finding scum.

[damo666]

So Jamie it's 50/50 who you scan if worcej is to be believed. Good luck and I hope you survive to tell us the result.

[worcej]

@worcej:

"This is based on the flavor mostly, but I believe they used the strongarm move on Crimson thinking that he was hiding as the Mason."

What do you mean by hiding?

"Regardless, this puts a scum among damo/bozo/Neph/Fox. My money is on bozo. Details are below (by process of elimination)"

There is a discrepancy here, you are already said damo or Foxcastle is scum.

That the scum may have thought his claim was false.

The second one is not a discrepancy - earlier in the post I said I believe Fox is the scum, which for further analysis would make damo town. I also addressed why damo and fox are probably both not scum.