To be honest, I don't wholly understand the cases of either damo or xorxes and how they narrow down the scumteams here; but given that they both conclude that the other must be scum, I think it is unlikely that they are scum together. I think these two play-by-plays will be incredibly valuable once we know the alignment of one of them.
damo's statement is much more straightforward and has fewer holes, and damo's observations, plus xorxes' blindspots, have made me realize
that the likely third scum is either kgray or Vecna.
There are three major flaws I see in xorxes' reasoning:
1. xorxes makes a bizarre observation that scum!food would be agitated that town!xorxes would assume scum!Chaqa is town. That's patently ridiculous. If Chaqa and I were scum together, I would 1) never have made the argument I did in the first place and 2) would be happy if I thought town!xorxes was auto-towning scum!Chaqa. This seems so incredibly obvious that I am astonished xorxes would hit "submit" on a post with that written out. It suggests xorxes is not thinking about how town or scum would actually act, but is just looking for things to fiddle with.
2. xorxes' logic about the wagons doesn't take into account how scum actually play and makes assumptions about certain players that don't need to be made. For example, I routinely lurk exclusively via the bot when I'm scum for exactly this sort of reason, and I seriously doubt other scum players don't do that, too, so assuming that we "know" who was here at EOD is obviously stupid. Second, worcej never said he wasn't/would not be here at EOD, so far as I can tell, so xorxes is again making logical leaps to come up with a fake scum team.
3. Finally, xorxes' analysis includes a blindspot about kgray and summit, both of whom he null-read at EOD and should be considered for possible scum as well. In xorxes' second case, if damo is scum and xorxes is town, there's no glaring logical reason from a VCA perspective that kgray or summit could not be scum who scumread their teammate damo (which happens all the time here, bussing is generally rampant and they have daychat). Both of them were leery enough of xorxes on D1 that they could have justifiably moved from damo to xorxes if damo is town and xorxes is scum. And, again, given that xorxes null-reads them, leaving this out is best explained as an intentional misstep by xorxes to build his damo-Chaqa-foodcoats scum team.
xorxes wrote: ↑Wed May 20, 2020 11:21 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Wed May 20, 2020 11:07 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Wed May 20, 2020 11:03 pm
So unless scum are being tricky, my obvious conclusion is that scumteam is one of: (Tom, worcej, Vecna) or (damo, [food, bozo, worcej, Chaqa])
Based on my previous townreads of Tom and emc/Vecna, I will for now focus on the second possibility, which gives me
damo and, if I'm right about bozo being town, and worcej's claim goes unchallenged, that would leave
food and
Chaqa.
It might also explain why foodcoats was so agitated that I was "assuming" that Chaqa was town with my Neph vote.
foodnote: in what world would a townie reading my scummate as town make me annoyed? In what world would I as scum insist that a townie pay more attention to my scummate?
Can you explain your scum team guesses a little more? I’m a little confused on the reasoning behind then. Is it purely people who voted for you or weren’t online at EoD??
I explained in a previous post, but here it is again:
CASE 1: damo is town
If this is the case, scum would have been happy to lynch either one of me and damo, and so the only scumteam that could not do that is (Tom, worcej, emc/Vecna) because
everyone else was here at EOD and could have moved to mislynch one of us. foodnote: how could we possibly know who was here at EOD? The game can quite effectively can be read from the bot. I have done so very successfully and have gone 3 and 0 as scum.
CASE 2: damo is scum
In this case, scum could have lynched me unless the two scum were already voting for me when damo voted. Or one of them was Tom or emc/Vecna who apparently were not here. That means in this case scumteam is damo plus two of (Tom, emc/Vecna, bozo, worcej, food, Chaqa).
Excluding my towreads Tom/Vecna/bozo, and giving worcej the benefit of the doubt about his claim, that leaves (damo, food, Chaqa). foodnote: what about kgray and summit? Why are they not factored in here? What about Nephthys, who could've been lying about his availability? But really, why would town!xorxes, having null-read kgray and summit, COMPLETELY miss the fact that they ended the day on damo, but could have been scum who, if xorxes is town, would have moved to xorxes to lynch him?
If you are town, worcej would be my top candidate to replace you at this point, because his claim was a bit fishy.
damo, regarding your case, if both you and xorxes are town, why couldn't kgray or summit move to lynch xorxes? I think Tom and I "locked in" our votes, but on the flipside, why couldn't Chaqa or bozo move to lynch you?
However, I think the answers are obvious: Chaqa and bozo are town, and kgray and summit are very possibly scum. xorxes' analysis has far more holes, and you've made me raise my eyebrow about kgray. I think we are all agreed that this could not be TvT, and I think it is unlikely it was SvS, so your points about xorxes are well taken. The thing that knocked down my read of kgray from townread to townlean was that she made no specific scum/town claims, even if she has been aggressive in her questioning. She may be clever scum. From a VCA perspective this is more likely, I think, than Nephthys being scum, who said just enough and little enough to justifiably vote for you at EOD. The other possibility is Vecna.
I think this may indicate the scumteam is exactly xorxes, summit_fever, and Vecna OR kgray.
damo666 wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 10:04 am
Assuming
1 worcej is town due to claim
2 Neph is town else he would have caused lynch
3 Vecna is town because scumemc would have made an effort to vote
then
if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon giving only 2 possible scum teams, namely
food Bozo Chaqa OR kgray Tom summit
If Xorxes is scum his team mates must be 2 from kgray Tom and summit.
Therefore logically I must ##vote Xorxes
Assuming I am correct then whichever way he flips we are only one mislynch away from victory.
Hopefully game is solved.
@Xorxes sorry if you're town but if you are you will be happy with my logic.