Re: 1v1 Puzzles
Posted: Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:54 am
You are missing the threat of Kiel to Mun. supported by Ruhr and Bur., which is a significant risk to Austria trying moves 3 or 5 if France is willing to wait him out.mhsmith0 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:52 pmI think I'd probably revise my earlier note, since France has three rather than two options in the event that F Baltic is busy doing something other than supporting or tapping Berlin...
France move sets
A) Ber-Mun supported by Bur/Ruhr/Kiel
B) Bur-Mun supported by Ruhr/Ber, Kiel supports Ber H
C) Bur-Mun supported by Ruhr/Kiel/Ber
Austrian move sets
1) Pru-Ber supported by Mun, Tyr/Boh/SIl support Mun H
2) Pru-Ber supported by Mun/Sil, Tyr/Boh support Mun H
3) Mun-Ber supported by Sil/Pru, Tyr-Mun supported by Boh
4) Mun-Ber supported by Pru, Tyr-Mun supported by Boh/Sil
5) Mun-Kiel, Tyr-Mun supported by Boh, Pru-Ber supported by Sil
France move set A:
v Aus1: Austria takes Berlin, Munich holds, Prussia empty space, Austria gets 18
v Aus2: Berlin/Munich control flipped, A Mun destroyed, Prussia is empty space
v Aus3: France takes Munich and doesn't lose Berlin, hits 18
v Aus4: France takes Munich and doesn't lose Berlin, hits 18
v Aus5: Berlin/Munich control flipped, A Mun destroyed, Prussia is empty space
France move set B:
v Aus1: no change in unit positions
v Aus2: no change in unit positions
v Aus3: Austria takes Berlin, Munich empty space, Austria gets 18
v Aus4: no change in unit positions
v Aus5: Austria takes Berlin, Munich empty space, Austria gets 18
France move set C
v Aus1: no change in unit positions
v Aus2: Berlin/Munich control flipped, A Mun destroyed, Prussia is empty space (also A Ber destroyed, but A Par presumably backfills Bur in the considered order set)
v Aus3: Berlin/Munich control flipped, A Ber destroyed
v Aus4: Austria takes Berlin, Munich empty space, Austria gets 18
v Aus5: Berlin/Munich control flipped, A Mun destroyed, Prussia is empty space (also A Ber destroyed, but A Par presumably backfills Bur in the considered order set)
From Austrian perspective:
Move set 1: 1/3 chance of winning, 2/3 chance of 0 net change
Move set 2: 3/3 chance of 0 net change (therefore sub-optimal, wouldn’t take it)
Move set 3: 1/3 chance of winning, 1/3 chance of losing, 1/3 chance of 0 net change
Move set 4: 1/3 chance of winning, 1/3 chance of losing, 1/3 chance of 0 net change
Move set 5: 1/3 chance of winning, 2/3 chance of 0 net change
Move set 2 does nothing, is sub-optimal, you can chuck it
Move set 5 is strictly better than move set 3 (against A, it draws instead of loses; against B, it’s same outcome; against C, it’s basically the same outcome)
So you can narrow it down to France move sets A/B/C against Austrian move sets 1/4/5
Each has a 33% chance of Austrian outright victory, where if France chooses move set A, he gets a shot at an outright win himself.
So it's not at the 50-50 level of "Austria has an outright coin flip to win the game if he predicts accurately when France will try for Livonia" but it's in the ballpark of 33% (adjusted for chance of outright loss that turn).
That said, there could certainly be some other tactical option I'm missing here. But I THINK that in order to take Livonia and then Prussia, France is required to accept the risk of an outright loss (also, if you get a status quo turn, but Sev gets into Moscow, you then add in Mos-STP and Mos support Liv-STP as possible moves, which makes it harder on France and probably creates the risk of an Austrian army in STP which also wins the game for Austria)