Turkey is Overrated

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ssorenn
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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#21 Post by ssorenn » Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:10 pm

Restitution wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:51 pm
qrzy wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:56 pm
I think Lepanto is overrated. :)
For whom, A or I?

If what people are saying is true (that the A/I alliance is bad for Italy, and he'd be better off attacking Austria)... well, that is *really* bad for Austria who is already in a rough place and cannot survive being attacked by Italy. But perhaps that is exactly why Italy should attack Austria.

Or is it rather that Italy should go for France, given the anti-French meta?
In press games, an Italian who attacks Austria early, only pushes RT closer together. This allows for a higher success rate for the Turk. AI/RT should always be a stalemate situation. Under normal circumstances, this should allow for different variations of alliances to come out of the east. IT being one of my favorite alliances
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ssorenn
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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#22 Post by ssorenn » Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:58 pm

ssorenn wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:10 pm
Restitution wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:51 pm
qrzy wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:56 pm
I think Lepanto is overrated. :)
For whom, A or I?

If what people are saying is true (that the A/I alliance is bad for Italy, and he'd be better off attacking Austria)... well, that is *really* bad for Austria who is already in a rough place and cannot survive being attacked by Italy. But perhaps that is exactly why Italy should attack Austria.

Or is it rather that Italy should go for France, given the anti-French meta?
In press games, an Italian who attacks Austria early, only pushes RT closer together. This allows for a higher success rate for the Turk. AI/RT should always be a stalemate situation. Under normal circumstances, this should allow for different variations of alliances to come out of the east. IT being one of my favorite alliances
i think the turk has a higher success rate in gunboat because more than not, the italian is willing to attack the Austrian almost right away

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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#23 Post by Restitution » Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:03 pm

ssorenn wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:58 pm
i think the turk has a higher success rate in gunboat because more than not, the italian is willing to attack the Austrian almost right away
That's not my experience :O

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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#24 Post by Carl Tuckerson » Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:04 pm

Restitution wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:51 pm
qrzy wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:56 pm
I think Lepanto is overrated. :)
For whom, A or I?

If what people are saying is true (that the A/I alliance is bad for Italy, and he'd be better off attacking Austria)... well, that is *really* bad for Austria who is already in a rough place and cannot survive being attacked by Italy. But perhaps that is exactly why Italy should attack Austria.

Or is it rather that Italy should go for France, given the anti-French meta?
The answer is that what people are saying isn't true :^)

It's very easy for the Lepanto to turn out poorly for Italy if he isn't cognizant of the pace of Austria's growth compared to his. Italy requires careful management of your partners as well as your enemies. You can't execute a linear strategy by rote and expect to succeed with it if your opponents are playing tight. If you bounce in Eastern Med for 3+ turns in a row and then die, that's not the fault of A/I alliances generally.

Italy is best off not committing himself in 1901 or Spring 1902 and letting the board play out. Committing to attacking Austria from the jump is usually bad, and running the Lepanto right into F Smy -> EMS is also bad. But Italy has a pretty good position to attack either Austria or Turkey, and has the luxury of letting things develop.
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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#25 Post by Matticus13 » Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:35 pm

Carl Tuckerson wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:04 pm
Restitution wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:51 pm
qrzy wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:56 pm
I think Lepanto is overrated. :)
For whom, A or I?

If what people are saying is true (that the A/I alliance is bad for Italy, and he'd be better off attacking Austria)... well, that is *really* bad for Austria who is already in a rough place and cannot survive being attacked by Italy. But perhaps that is exactly why Italy should attack Austria.

Or is it rather that Italy should go for France, given the anti-French meta?
The answer is that what people are saying isn't true :^)

It's very easy for the Lepanto to turn out poorly for Italy if he isn't cognizant of the pace of Austria's growth compared to his. Italy requires careful management of your partners as well as your enemies. You can't execute a linear strategy by rote and expect to succeed with it if your opponents are playing tight. If you bounce in Eastern Med for 3+ turns in a row and then die, that's not the fault of A/I alliances generally.

Italy is best off not committing himself in 1901 or Spring 1902 and letting the board play out. Committing to attacking Austria from the jump is usually bad, and running the Lepanto right into F Smy -> EMS is also bad. But Italy has a pretty good position to attack either Austria or Turkey, and has the luxury of letting things develop.
He's right you know...

My statement on A/I and the pitfalls for Italy are summed up nicely by Carl. I was lazy and didn't explain myself. A/I can be a fantastic choice under the right conditions.
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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#26 Post by RoganJosh » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:23 am

Carl Tuckerson wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:04 pm
Italy is best off not committing himself in 1901 or Spring 1902 and letting the board play out.
Just asking for clarification here. Personally, I think "Italy not committing themselves" means to open lepanto in 01. Is that what you mean? That is, as far as I am concerned, that A/I narrative in gunboat.

Italy doesn't necessarily have to follow up with AEG/EMS in 02.

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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#27 Post by Carl Tuckerson » Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:03 am

RoganJosh wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:23 am
Carl Tuckerson wrote:
Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:04 pm
Italy is best off not committing himself in 1901 or Spring 1902 and letting the board play out.
Just asking for clarification here. Personally, I think "Italy not committing themselves" means to open lepanto in 01. Is that what you mean? That is, as far as I am concerned, that A/I narrative in gunboat.

Italy doesn't necessarily have to follow up with AEG/EMS in 02.
That's right. I think convoying to Tunis in A01 is usually the best move, to preserve the option to run the full linear sequence if circumstances call for it.
I just have my suspicions--and not of the posters in this thread themselves, but of our shared experiences watching Italy put up middling finishes after running a Lepanto--that a lot of Italian players go on autopilot and run their fleet into the world's most predictable bounce in Eastern Mediterranean, guess wrong for another turn or two, get stabbed by a 7+ center Austria around 1904 before they ever get anything off of Turkey and then blame the Lepanto for that.

Personally, I like convoying back to Apulia in Spring 02 and moving fleet Naples to Tyrrhenian Sea, and then making the move in Autumn 02, if I'm going to go for Turkey. Most Turks will on policy build fleet Smyrna in response to the move Ionian C Apulia -> Tunis, and then it's a guessing game over Aegean Sea or Eastern Mediterranean Sea. I think you can level them by not trying for it in the spring, enticing them to redeploy that fleet to Aegean Sea, and then sliding in after they vacate.

The other half of what I mean is "don't attack Austria [or France, or Germany] in 1901." These attacks very frequently trigger 3-on-1 dogpiles that usually end in the other two countries getting the bigger share of the spoils, because you strike first, which draws the enemy's units toward you and away from your co-conspirators. Allow Austria to gain some ground on Russia and Turkey and get those armies into Romania or Galicia or somewhere irrelevant to you before you lunge into Trieste is all I'm suggesting.
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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#28 Post by RoganJosh » Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:58 am

I think we are more or less in agreement. I do find this to be an interesting discussion, and something that I have been thinking a bit about lately, so I'll continue just to get a feel for what other people are thinking.

Depending on R/T, I think I prefer to convoy back to Apulia in A02, in case of a bounce. If you guess right for AEG/EMS you can gain some momentum and can possibly make a gain from T before Austria hits 7. Also, I am not sure how A and F would react to an S02 re-convoy and a fleet in TYS.

But, the more interesting question is, when should A stab I, and when should I turn on A? My experience is that if Austria hits 7 while Italy is still on 4, then Austria often stabs. Italy, if they do not anticipate the stab, is doomed. But capturing the Italian peninsula for Austria often comes at a price. If T/R are friends, which in this scenario they often are, then
Austria usually loses Bulgaria and at least on of Greece and Rumania, and Turkey will most probably make it into ION. That is, Austria is fucked, unless some external force (E/F/G) interfere.

So, unless R has maybe an army in Arm or something, I think Austria's best continuation is to help Italy into one Turkish center before they stab.

On the other hand, Austria's best play for a solo might be to stab Italy in that position, and hope that I/R/T flub their responses.
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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#29 Post by swordsman3003 » Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:04 pm

In gunboat Diplomacy, as Turkey, I fear nobody.

Austria and Russia rarely, if ever, cooperate -- let alone coordinate. Turkey can typically simultaneously war against both of them without causing those two powers to find a way to work together. They don't particularly care to see each other do well, and in most situations, almost every power would rather Turkey do well than either Austria or Russia (I except Italy--but only sort of), so the rest of the board will just pile on (or ignore you).

Italy is the only power who can really get in my way. I don't fear Italy; even if Italy decides to attack Turkey and no other power, I can usually block everything for a loooong time. Every turn that passes brings temptation by Italy or Austria to attack each other; every turn that passes brings new opportunity to break through (e.g., France menaces Italy).

If Italy does anything other than all-out attack Turkey and only Turkey -- if Italy does anything else at all -- I do not think I will be eliminated. If Italy attacks Austria, then it's time to pop the champagne.

If I can somehow reach 5 centers, I feel like I am winning. If I can reach 7, I am unkillable. If I reach 9, I can probably solo win or come damn close to it.

In my private gunboat league, I have never, ever, been defeated as Turkey. I have a 100% draw/win rate.

Other players do not have the same gunboat experiences with Turkey that I have. But I am unconvinced that this makes Turkey "overrated." I think it means "I have a lot to learn about playing Turkey."

-------
I am deliberately omitting any commentary on Turkey as a press power, because I don't think I have much of an opinion. I think all the powers are equally good in press Diplomacy.
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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#30 Post by mhsmith0 » Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:43 pm

I admit to being mildly surprised that, at the least, you've never eaten a France solo in a league gunboat game where you randed Turkey. Feels like even a very good Turkey player will suffer that outcome from time to time...

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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#31 Post by RoganJosh » Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:24 am

@swrdsman: I always get annoyed with anecdotal evidence of the form in my private situation. The rest of us can't access those games. Either way, I hope you don't mind, but I took the liberty of checking your stats here at webdip.

You played Turkey in 22 gunboat non-live games, with 12 eliminations/survives. Your score with Turkey is .175, with draws weighted by draw size. That is above average (we are comparing to 1/7 = .14), and it is a score which you would expect only from a strong power.

However, if we only look at games with a bet size of at least 101 (i.e., only games against competent opponents*), then you have 9 games as Turkey, and your average score drops to .077. That is, you are performing well below average.

Yes, datasets are small.

I think everyone agrees that a Turkey on 7 centers is a powerhouse. The question is how to get there. My thesis is that Turkey, more than any other power, needs a misplay from an opponent to make it past 4 centers. Sure, in low level games players regularly make misplays. So, yes, in low level games I would agree that Turkey is one of the easiest/strongest powers. But if your opponents are fairly competent, then misplays become more rare...

*I don't know what is the best way to filter for games against competent opponents in an objective manner. Bet size seems to be the only option, and 101 seems to be the reasonable cut-off.

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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#32 Post by Octavious » Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:08 pm

RoganJosh wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:24 am
*I don't know what is the best way to filter for games against competent opponents in an objective manner. Bet size seems to be the only option, and 101 seems to be the reasonable cut-off.
I don't think bet size has been a remotely useful measure since the days reliability ratings were introduced and the idea of 101 bets to keep out new players ceased to be necessary. Although some gunboaters do seem to have a bizarre attachment to points that mystifies Diplomacy players.

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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#33 Post by swordsman3003 » Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:13 pm

@RoganJosh no that’s awesome; I don’t keep track of my overall webDip stats in such an atomic way and I like to know more.

I don’t think that bet size is a great proxy for the match quality. Octavious is right that for many years I was using it as a substitute for reliability rating. Invitational games and tournament games, which rarely have a bet, are the ones I take most seriously.

However, maybe that data is interesting. So in the context of high level games, one would expect my performance to be much poorer compared to my average. So the more interesting question is, I think, do I perform any better with Turkey compared to my personal average in high level games? If you can get that data without too much trouble I would like to know. Maybe I’m full of crap?

I referenced my league because it has 50+ matches over several years, mostly with players I personally trained, so even though the players may not have high GR, the metagame is well-developed and the players rarely make misorders and such. And I have the data because I recorded it as the games were played. It means something to me that I haven’t lost as Turkey even though I taught my players an anti-Turkish metagame.

I stand by my statement that I have no fear as Turkey. Maybe it’s a crazy attitude , but I really don’t.

It’s soooo difficult for Austria and Russia to make a coordinated attack. Italy and Austria often have to make 50/50-type guesses on which of each other’s units to support (since they can’t talk), which means—okay this is an important point my friend—even high level players regularly make misplays against Turkey in gunboat simply due to the limitations of gunboat Diplomacy. You can make bad guesses as Turkey and walk out alive because your rivals made bad guesses with their supports.

This is a huge factor in why Turkey is a powerhouse in gunboat but just fine in press.

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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#34 Post by RoganJosh » Fri Nov 01, 2019 6:34 pm

It's not that I think bet size is a good measure of skill of the players, but it's kinda the only measure available. Reliability rating isn't even about skill.

If I got my numbers right you've got 40 games with a bet of 101 or more. Your average score is .185. That's with draws weighted by draw size.

For individual countries
.421 Germany (7 games)
.217 Austria (5)
.217 Italy (4)
.200 England (6)
.156 France (5)
.063 Turkey (8)
0 Russia (5)

So, your score with Turkey really is remarkably low. It's also interesting that you score so low with France. I am not at all surprised to se Germany on top, nor am I surprised to se Russia at the bottom.
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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#35 Post by RoganJosh » Fri Nov 01, 2019 6:42 pm

Of course, a big grain of salt should be added due to the small number of games.

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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#36 Post by swordsman3003 » Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:23 pm

@RoganJosh, that's incredible. Thank you for looking into this data. I am blown away by this statistic, flawed as it may be.

It might be telling a just-so story, but maybe my record with France and Turkey in this big-bet game pool is poor because of the metagame that exists in high-bet matches.

That's kind of nuts though, probably for several reasons. I wish there was some way to sample games that involve players with high ghost rating.

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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#37 Post by Restitution » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:29 pm

swordsman3003 wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:23 pm
@RoganJosh, that's incredible. Thank you for looking into this data. I am blown away by this statistic, flawed as it may be.

It might be telling a just-so story, but maybe my record with France and Turkey in this big-bet game pool is poor because of the metagame that exists in high-bet matches.

That's kind of nuts though, probably for several reasons. I wish there was some way to sample games that involve players with high ghost rating.
Me too!

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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#38 Post by Matticus13 » Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:01 pm

Now, this is a very limited sample size, but potentially relevant: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Both series contained players of a *higher* GR than you would usually expect in a random game. I believe Series II had two players who were above 100, everyone else was top 100. In overall SC count, Turkey comes in second place. Only 14 games, so again, grains of coarse salt here...
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Re: Turkey is Overrated

#39 Post by Carl Tuckerson » Sat Nov 02, 2019 12:08 am

Matticus13 wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:01 pm
Now, this is a very limited sample size, but potentially relevant: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Both series contained players of a *higher* GR than you would usually expect in a random game. I believe Series II had two players who were above 100, everyone else was top 100. In overall SC count, Turkey comes in second place. Only 14 games, so again, grains of coarse salt here...
Counterpoint that I played Turkey in one of them which probably dragged Turkey's average down a lot

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