Some analysis for Russia
Posted: Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:00 pm
First a short preface:
I think the most important thing a russian player has to understand is:
R lives and dies in the south!
R doesnt need gains in the north at the start. Just keeping S.P. in the
early game is a big thing for achieving a solo. If R looses S.P. it can
later go for a retake. Even if R never gets S.P. back he can easily get
a draw. But for all the good things to happen R needs a good run in
the south. If R gets defeated in the south there is no comming back.
Now to some analysis:
My analysis is for R and for sure not complete. After some point it is
simply too much writing for my taste.
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=242430
spring 1901:
Opening moves pretty normal, except A not moving Tri-Alb, which is
good for R + T (which should be default). Also E moving to Yor and
not Edi limits his options in the scandinavins.
autumn 1901:
E moves worst case for R. G moves worst case for R. It should be
clear after one year A is playing weak. staying in Tri in spring is
dubious, in autumn just bad. not moving with Ser is just awful. I is
also playing bad (moving to Gre looks bad to me, staying in Ven in
spring is suboptimal).
The build in Mos is without an alternative.
builds 1901:
Now R is in a very difficult position. E is going big for S.P, but R
also has to think about his south. The english attack on R is very
commiting. If R is capable to defend for one year versus E, E is in
big trouble. E cannot afford the resources to fight R without gains,
because this gives F the premium plan of invading the west of E.
But R also has a resource problem. Fighting for S.P. makes life very
easy for A. It is very good for R that A only got one build. Versus a
normal A + I with a two build A there would be no choice. R would
simply have to go south and leave S.P. Here R can think about
delaying the movement Mos to Ukr. But defending S.P.is also not
easy. If E goes all in for S.P. it is a guessing game. What is best ? I
have no clue. It depends on a lot of estimates, but with R: if in
doubt go south. There is only one scenario which looks really awful
to me if R simply givees up S.P.: A good working E + G, with an
english tank in S.P. and two german tank going for War. Probability:
ultra low.
spring 1902:
Ok, now it is clear all opponents in the south are bad. T going for
Rum makes no sense to me. Even if T gets Rum what comes next ?
R will defend SEV, A will push for Rum, Bul and possible Gre
(depends on I). With a growing T I never has the option fighting A.
I has to go for T. No way that fighting three guys is good for T. But
that was the good case with T getting Rum. If T doesnt get Rum, he
only can hope that R understands that he has no other option than
staying with T(, if T stops attacking R). E moving to Nor instead of
Eng seems bad to me. This give F an important tempo for a possible
attack on E. Securing Nor makes only sense to me if G moves to Nor (probability: very low) and gets an advantage out of it. To me this
would mean G can convoy a tank to the isle. This will not happen.
Yes G gets Edi (with a fleet) but after this E will fight G with all he
has giving R + F a sweet life, with lots of options like F helping E
defending, F collecting more of E than G, F attacking G on the
mainland, R escalating in the scandinavian.
autumn 1902:
North is a very happy surprising result. T makes me speechless.
There is no way he gets Sev. Only a war between I + A puts some
sense to turkish moves and there is no sign showing this. Instead
there is a clear path for I to turkish mainland.
--------------------------------------------------
Ok, i will shorten this now. The game is pretty weak. Loosing Sev
is the clear first mistake i see for R. Dont know why you didnt
defend it. T moves should make it clear that he has no strategy
except the next SC. Cant say for sure but i guess i would have
gone south in 1902. Looking at the rest of the game it is a miracle
that R as part of the Draw. Seems clear to me that A + I + T poor
play is a big part of this result.
I think the most important thing a russian player has to understand is:
R lives and dies in the south!
R doesnt need gains in the north at the start. Just keeping S.P. in the
early game is a big thing for achieving a solo. If R looses S.P. it can
later go for a retake. Even if R never gets S.P. back he can easily get
a draw. But for all the good things to happen R needs a good run in
the south. If R gets defeated in the south there is no comming back.
Now to some analysis:
My analysis is for R and for sure not complete. After some point it is
simply too much writing for my taste.
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=242430
spring 1901:
Opening moves pretty normal, except A not moving Tri-Alb, which is
good for R + T (which should be default). Also E moving to Yor and
not Edi limits his options in the scandinavins.
autumn 1901:
E moves worst case for R. G moves worst case for R. It should be
clear after one year A is playing weak. staying in Tri in spring is
dubious, in autumn just bad. not moving with Ser is just awful. I is
also playing bad (moving to Gre looks bad to me, staying in Ven in
spring is suboptimal).
The build in Mos is without an alternative.
builds 1901:
Now R is in a very difficult position. E is going big for S.P, but R
also has to think about his south. The english attack on R is very
commiting. If R is capable to defend for one year versus E, E is in
big trouble. E cannot afford the resources to fight R without gains,
because this gives F the premium plan of invading the west of E.
But R also has a resource problem. Fighting for S.P. makes life very
easy for A. It is very good for R that A only got one build. Versus a
normal A + I with a two build A there would be no choice. R would
simply have to go south and leave S.P. Here R can think about
delaying the movement Mos to Ukr. But defending S.P.is also not
easy. If E goes all in for S.P. it is a guessing game. What is best ? I
have no clue. It depends on a lot of estimates, but with R: if in
doubt go south. There is only one scenario which looks really awful
to me if R simply givees up S.P.: A good working E + G, with an
english tank in S.P. and two german tank going for War. Probability:
ultra low.
spring 1902:
Ok, now it is clear all opponents in the south are bad. T going for
Rum makes no sense to me. Even if T gets Rum what comes next ?
R will defend SEV, A will push for Rum, Bul and possible Gre
(depends on I). With a growing T I never has the option fighting A.
I has to go for T. No way that fighting three guys is good for T. But
that was the good case with T getting Rum. If T doesnt get Rum, he
only can hope that R understands that he has no other option than
staying with T(, if T stops attacking R). E moving to Nor instead of
Eng seems bad to me. This give F an important tempo for a possible
attack on E. Securing Nor makes only sense to me if G moves to Nor (probability: very low) and gets an advantage out of it. To me this
would mean G can convoy a tank to the isle. This will not happen.
Yes G gets Edi (with a fleet) but after this E will fight G with all he
has giving R + F a sweet life, with lots of options like F helping E
defending, F collecting more of E than G, F attacking G on the
mainland, R escalating in the scandinavian.
autumn 1902:
North is a very happy surprising result. T makes me speechless.
There is no way he gets Sev. Only a war between I + A puts some
sense to turkish moves and there is no sign showing this. Instead
there is a clear path for I to turkish mainland.
--------------------------------------------------
Ok, i will shorten this now. The game is pretty weak. Loosing Sev
is the clear first mistake i see for R. Dont know why you didnt
defend it. T moves should make it clear that he has no strategy
except the next SC. Cant say for sure but i guess i would have
gone south in 1902. Looking at the rest of the game it is a miracle
that R as part of the Draw. Seems clear to me that A + I + T poor
play is a big part of this result.