School of War Summer 2019

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dargorygel
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#21 Post by dargorygel » Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:30 pm

I really, really, really hope folk enter their orders on time. :-/
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#22 Post by jmo1121109 » Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:41 pm

I'll provide my thoughts on Germany, Italy, Russia, and Turkey in a bit.
*Checks watch
*sighs
*summons over assistant, where is professor Balki?
*assistant mumbles something about another few hours of time left scheduled to staring in the mirror flexing
*sees note from professor balki bragging about stats on a site with less skilled players, laughs and begins lecture.

Italy
Considerations in year 1: Italy has a different options than everyone else in the first year. There is no expectation of an aggressive opening move against another country for Italy, Italy is the one country with the most freedom to wait and watch while safely taking 1 center. But that does not mean Italy should dismiss the possibility of an aggressive opening. As Italy you need to be open to state of the press on the board and watch for openings. As Balki mentioned earlier, if you hear from Russia that Austria is such a nice guy that he has a bounce arranged in Galicia, you may need to seriously consider taking Trieste and leaving Tunis open in exchange for securing your hold on Trieste. In rare cases, you may have a golden opportunity to pounce on France. But listening and talking to everyone is key here to understand the state of the board. If you don't know what Russia, Turkey, and Austria are planning then you're failing as Italy year 1.

Turkey
Your job in the opening year is deciding what to do with the Black Sea. Do you arrange a bounce or do you attempt to take it? The timing of an alliance can be critical here. The A/R/T/I alliance options are fairly balanced so knowing if England is opening aggressively against Russia can change how you want to open yourself. Be working on Italy to ensure he isn't eyeing you as the best person to pounce on. The hardest thing for Turkey is getting that 5th supply center so you should be planning how to do that even now.

Germany
Do you block Russia from Sweden, and if you do, what impact will that have on the east board? Choosing to block Russia *and* choosing whether or not to tell everyone you're doing so can have a profound impact on the state of the board at the end of the year. If you know Russia is going to be blitzed by Turkey and England you may want to let them into Sweden to help prevent Russia from crumbling too quickly. You also get to offer Belgium as an alliance selling point to England or France. What you need to have worked out is a good plan for hitting 7 centers based on your initial negotiations. If you cannot envision how you get centers besides Denmark and Holland you may be in trouble.

One of the things to be watching for here as well is a lie of omission from England. If England tells you that you can have Belgium or he isn't moving on France, remember that this doesn't mean England isn't attacking you. Holland, Denmark, and Belgium are all within England's range and you need to be wary of more unconventional openings.

Russia
You have more considerations to worry about. The black sea in the south, Galicia in the south, Sweden in the north, and if/how you're going to let England take Norway. Because of how impacted you can be by every single player I won't go into all of the things that can impact you opening turn, because it's literally every player's moves. But main things to avoid are Turkey in the Black Sea and Armenia at the same time, and England in Norway with an army. Aside from that, do your best to manipulate the state of the board so if you know England seems intent to open against you, you can work to convince France to open to EC. If Austria is insisting on no DMZ in Galaicia then convince Italy to make a move on Trieste. Every other country looking to take advantage of you year 1 has to do so at the cost of creating an opening themselves for a neighbor to exploit.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#23 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:35 am

Okay, a few more powers to cover. Again, just throwing out one thing to consider, and one thing to avoid, as you approach the first turn from each power.

GERMANY
One thing to consider: Name of the game is getting France and England to go to war. You don't need Belgium. Give it freely if it means discord in L'Entente Cordiale. If England and France go to war, you'll get Belgium eventually.
One thing to avoid: Never underestimate the importance of Austria doing well. This is covered well by Richard Sharp.Don't forget it. And don't expect it to happen without your help.

ITALY
One thing to consider: Your safe border with France is a treasure to be polished like your first Patek Philippe Pocket Watch. Make clear to France that you understand the value in a completely safe border, that you don't want to send your units on a long voyage that won't result in gains in more than a year, and that you're favorite quote is from bank robber Willie Sutton who was asked why he robbed banks and replied: "because that's where the money is." That's why you're going East: Because that's where the centers are. Or at least that's what you want France to believe.
One thing to avoid: If you're going to attack Austria, don't tell a soul. Don't tell Turkey. Don't tell your wife. Don't tell your priest. Don't tell your mentor.

RUSSIA
One thing to consider: Have you ever been to a southern wedding? Bourbon, hush puppies, seersucker, aggressive fiddling. It's so much damn fun. What do you need to be sure you are invited to a southern wedding? A soul mate from the south. That's what you need in Diplomacy too. A soul mate from the south. Talk to all three of them: Austria, Turkey, Italy. Get to know them. Tell them you're ready to settle down and you want something serious. And then put a ring on it. Once you have your soul mate, make the other two ladies in waiting fight, then link arms with your bride and swallow one, and then the other, like a couple of hush puppies. You've just put yourself in position to dominate the end
One thing to avoid: Don't be a dictator. Just listen. Listen. As Russia, people are going to want to talk to you. Turkey needs to talk to you about Black Sea. Austria needs to talk to you about Galicia. England needs to talk to you about not sending your army north. Germany needs to talk to you (if he's any good) about you not attacking Austria. And hopefully Italy wants to talk to you about your future together. You just need to listen and be agreeable. It's hard to dictate a master plan when your moves depend quite a bit on others (What does Germany want in exchange for Sweden? Who wants a bounce in Black Sea? Who wants a bounce in Galicia). Just listen and basically agree to whatever anyone else wants. You're going to kill them all, but not until they are focused elsewhere and they've forgotten about that cuddly agreeable bear in the corner.

TURKEY
One thing to consider: Your opening moves are pretty binary. Attack Russia, or hope for two builds in the Balkans (and probably be disappointed). I find my time is best spent in the Turkish early game trying to convince Italy what a great idea it would be to launch an early attack on Austria. If you can get him to move to Trieste or Tyrolia, Greece is as good as yours, and you're out of the box.
One thing to avoid: Don't forget to reach out to everyone in the west. I know they are a long way away. I know it seems like there are more pressing matters. But France, Germany, and England are the keys you use to unlock the box. Get to know what they feel like in your hands. You're going to need to use them. France unlocks Italy. Germany and England unlock Russia You'll want to know when they are attacking your neighbors. And if you're any good, you'll be responsible for them attacking your neighbors.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#24 Post by mhsmith0 » Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:21 am

Does it ever really work as turkey to convince a competent Italian to attack Austria in 1901? Feels like a crazy hard sell to me, though I don’t
really have any better insight into Turkey. Turkey seems like a power who’s inherently good at surviving unless all of AIR join hands to wipe him out early, but at the same time it’s hard to make good alliances with anyone other than Russia in early game.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#25 Post by jmo1121109 » Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:18 am

mhsmith0 wrote:
Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:21 am
Does it ever really work as turkey to convince a competent Italian to attack Austria in 1901? Feels like a crazy hard sell to me, though I don’t
really have any better insight into Turkey. Turkey seems like a power who’s inherently good at surviving unless all of AIR join hands to wipe him out early, but at the same time it’s hard to make good alliances with anyone other than Russia in early game.
It isn't really about directly influencing Italy into attacking Austria. The entire point of an Italian attack on Austria is it NEEDS to be a surprise attack like Balki mentioned. So your best bet is to convince Austria or Russia to arrange a Galicia bounce, or convince Russia to move to Galicia. Then you can either leak that to Austria, hopefully ensuring his coverage of Galicia, which means that if he wants to take 2 neutral centers like normal he has to risk exposing himself to Italy in Trieste. Or if Italy is a skilled player he should be able to find out on his own that Russia and Austria plan on a bounce or one of them plans on taking Galicia. Either way that happens you're ensuring that Austria is left with a vulnerable position. It still takes an Italy with some guts to overcome the normal wait and see disposition that can be so attractive to give into as Italy, but it can have some frequent success.

Of course all that goes out the window in the rare case France is a lunatic who gives off vibes of moving to Piedmont, so you need to know France's general plans too. If France seems particularly unhinged, it might not even be worth focusing on the Italy aspect.

On the other point you mentioned, that it's hard to make alliances with anyone except Russia, an early Austria/Turkey alliance isn't impossible either and can have some pretty nice success. While more unorthodox, any 2 player alliance between R/T/I/A early in the game can have wild success if done correctly, especially if the west capitulates.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#26 Post by jmo1121109 » Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:12 pm

Review of the Spring 01 Moves

Now a quick note before I jump into this. I will not necessarily be commenting on every country's moves every turn. Some countries I may skip if there is nothing I feel needs to be covered.

England:
Your moves this turn are my favorite. Now before you go getting an ego boost out of that, if you broke a dmz agreement to take the EC without Germany being aware you were going there, you're going to be having a rough time diplomatically this turn. That said, you are setup in a way that gives you a million options and Germany and France should both be aiming to court you for an alliance right now. Most of your possible move-sets will leave you sitting at 4 centers, unless you pick up Belgium without your own support, which isn't impossible. I'm particularly fond of the fact that you even have the option of an alliance with Turkey right now. If you intentionally left the unlikely convoy to Norway open as a possibility due to hearing whispering in the south of a weak Russia, I commend you.

Now as a creative exercise, I'm going to list the different move-sets I'd be considering in England's shoes. Each of them has various risks, but each is a feasible option depending on the flow of press occurring. And I want each of you to learn to think like this because you should always be thinking about how to move outside the box and take the board by surprise.
  1. Convoy to Pic after putting press out that makes France concerned you'll move on Brest and be allying with Germany.
  2. Convoy to Denmark after convincing Russia to move to Baltic so Germany will take Sweden while securing Belgium for either you or France, making a 3 way vice on Germany to quickly crush them. (I so rarely see something like this, but on the current board it's entirely feasible)
  3. Convoy to Norway and get out of the EC, while having Germany block Sweden after allying with Turkey in the south.
  4. Support yourself into Belgium forsaking Norway for a moment knowing that Russia's 1 build is likely going to have to go south due to the instability there.
  5. Get France so worried about a convoy to Pic that you can convoy into Brest instead.
  6. Move to Brest with a fleet after getting France worried about a convoy to Pic and get Germany's support into Belgium OR just take Norway with the North Sea or with your army.
Some of those options seem infeasible for various reasons, but each one *is* possible and everyone on the board should be analyzing every single country to understand what is possible and be aiming to use their press to eliminate options, or to force countries toward the option they desire. Never rule an alliance out just because it seems unlikely or weird.

France:
It's hard for me to rate your moves right now without knowing the press that's going into the situation in the English Channel. At first glance it appears bad, but I've also seen and participated in ruses that involved France giving the EC to England in exchange for supporting him into Belgium while England stops Germany from getting a 5th center in Holland. There are a lot of interesting options and it's quite likely that England is not entirely decided on their course of action yet. Whoever grants them the best offer will likely end as their ally. And make no mistake, right now it is England with the controlling power in the west after that opening round. As an aside, I personally tend to leave Marseilles in place until the fall in case Germany moves to Bur or Italy moves to Piedmont. The one saving grace with your moves is the army in Picardly without a German army in Bur. It means you can ignore Belgium, cover Brest, and still ensure 2 neutrals without any risk. It isn't foolproof, because a clever England can drop an army in Pic under that move set and be in a beautiful position to attack you with Germany, but I've definitely seen worse opening positions for France before.

Germany:
All things considered, nice boring moves. You're in a position to be kingmaker with Russia, or throw him to the wolves (Turkey) based on his weaker southern moves. You *should* get Holland, and you'll have a controlling interest in Belgium. Hopefully at this point you were involved in England moving to the EC. If that's something that surprised you...well you may want to be a little concerned (see my notes for France). France not moving to Bur and not needing a bounce to keep it dmz (demilitarized for those of you who don't know the slang dip players use yet) was a nice win on your part.

Russia:
I am not a fan of this opening move-set, especially considering the state of the board. In the north there's nothing wrong, in fact England's opening at first appearance looks pretty solid for you. Their move to the EC implies there will not be an army in Norway at the end of the year which is all you really want from the North. However, Germany moving over to Denmark instead of adding extra clout to the Belgium front is a little concerning.

Now in the south I really dislike the combination of moves that leave Galicia open and give Turkey the Black Sea. If Austria had been lying to you and had made a move up to Galicia you would be in some trouble right now. I'm also fairly opposed to the idea of handing Turkey the Black Sea in the first year. The biggest problem with your move-set though is that Italy made an aggressive opening against Austria...and you're not in a position to take advantage of it. This is why it's so critically important to know what everyone on the board is going to be doing. Had you taken Galicia this turn, Austria would be ensured a loss of a center to either you or Italy and would have been quickly crushed.

Austria:
Well, all things considered this isn't as bad as it first looks. You have an ensured way to keep 1 neutral center, you can 100% protect Trieste if needed, and depending on how risky you want to get you can possibly still take a second neutral center. If your press was the reason Galicia stayed clear, ace job, if not...well sometimes it's better to be lucky then good anyways.

Now what I don't want to get into too much here, but you should ask your mentor about is how you can use your press this turn to force Italy and Turkey into making some difficult decisions about what they want to do in regards too Greece, Tunis, and Trieste. I'll cover this more after the turn goes through to avoid leading the witness too much. But the main point here is, your press this turn will be absolutely critical and could be the difference between a 3 or 5 center Italy at the end of the year.

Turkey:
You got the Black Sea and you didn't fail to take Bulgaria, that's about as good as you can hope for. Italy moved aggressively towards Austria, and Russia is in a relatively weak position, things couldn't really be going much better for you. You also have some serious negotiation power around Greece this turn. Talk to your mentor about the various ways you should be approaching that.

Italy:
So there's 1 thing that is the difference between this move-set being masterful and being a serious problem for you, and unfortunately that 1 thing is Russia moving to Galicia or not. Right now you're in a position where you showed your hand very early in the game which is something Italian players normally try to avoid for another couple of turns. And you ended up without any immediate allies to help you out. Now that said, it isn't an irredeemable position. In fact there's actually a small chance you walk away from this with 6 centers, and if you do that I'll spend about 10 minutes laughing hysterically when the turn processes. But even if you manage it, what this comes down too is you appear to have had a negotiation failure this turn. You should be talking to Turkey non stop right now about Greece and you should be talking to Austria non stop to manipulate them into various move-sets that will benefit you. Now of course there's always the possibility that this was actually arranged with Austria and you'll be sitting in Munch at the end of the year. Which is why it's always hard for professors to be 100% accurate without being involved in the press flow. If that's the case, kudos, and brilliantly played so far...but I suspect it is not. So talk to your mentor and improve your press for this turn.

Everyone
I am going to take a moment to be an unfriendly professor. If your press to another country was 1 sentence or just a couple of words for opening, you're not doing enough. You should be exchanging multiple messages with everyone the opening year, and if that's something you aren't interested in or cannot commit too, you may need to consider asking for a replacement. The game diplomacy is a strategic game yes, but it is first and foremost a game of negotiations, alliances, and carefully planned manipulations. Everyone here is taking a lot of time to help you learn the game and this will be used as a teaching example for many other players so I do not feel bad at all in asking each of you to return the same time and energy into winning the game.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#27 Post by jmo1121109 » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:43 pm

One aside note. I would recommend Italy take down their draw vote. It is an odd thing to have in place so early into the game and may give the impression of a lack of investment in the game or a wish for it to be over. I do not think that will be the case of any student currently, but it could risk giving that view.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#28 Post by peterwiggin » Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:51 am

Question for Balki:

If I'm Germany, I can understand not wanting RT to roll over Austria, but how well do I actually want Austria to do? Won't a successful Austria be looking to take Munich and Berlin in order to set up a solo shot?

Question for jmo:

Now that the other players can't see when I've saved orders, is it still as bad to put in some default orders at the beginning of the phase?
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#29 Post by jmo1121109 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:00 am

peterwiggin wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:51 am
Question for jmo:

Now that the other players can't see when I've saved orders, is it still as bad to put in some default orders at the beginning of the phase?
Quick note before answering this, all the professors are expected to post once a year, so captainmeme, balki, and I might not all post for every phase. But we'll make sure at least 1 of us tries to cover every phase.

In answer to your question, in this specific game it isn't as important. But you can still see order indicators on this site in non-anon games so I think it's a good habit to get into, waiting a bit before entering orders. I also strongly believe that every player should be considering altering their plans after every turn. Part of this game is flexibility. I don't care if I'm allied with the best, nicest, smartest ally I've ever had in any game and we're working wonderfully together with a perfect plan. If an opportunity opens to give me a feasible solo shot due to unexpected moves by someone else, I'm taking that solo shot. The entire point of the game is to win, so be constantly reevaluating the state of the board every turn. In this game, if you enter orders right away after the turn changes, I'm seriously questioning if you're taking the time to talk to your mentor about anything unexpected.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#30 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:01 am

* Assertively swallows the final bite of organic pomegranate seeds.
* Withdraws iPhone XS Max, opens selfie camera app, and fastidiously examines teeth.
* Nods approvingly.
* Waltzes to his place behind the lectern.

Class, I'm going to tell you a secret. I've never been a "School of War" professor before. I didn't really even know what it was until JMO begged me to share some wisdom just a few days ago. So, I don't have any plan or expectation of how to lecture here. I have no idea what I'm going to say next.

That said, I think we're all discovering together that I have a lot of insightful, hilarious, and earth shattering things to say. The kind of stuff that makes you audibly giggle, days later, when it smacks your consciousness again like a forgotten boomerang. "Fuck you Drezner family! Indeed. Bahaha!" The kind of stuff that makes you lay awake at night clutching your collar bone with two hands, concentrating scrupulously on a knot of wood on the ceiling. "My God, he's right. France is the key that unlocks Italy."

Because we are on this journey of discovery together, there is no template. The format develops and evolves like the three-toed skink. Let's see together what happens next.

This turn, I'm simply going to look at the board from the perspective of each power. I'll try to avoid saying the obvious stuff. I'm not JMO. But I'll just pass on a bullet point or two about things that would be in my head if I had that position.

The usual caveats apply. Press is everything, and so I don't know anything. Also, you could skip ahead to the section with your power at the top, but it's quite a bit better to consider them all. You know what you're thinking. You need to consider what everyone else is thinking.

Austria: 2/3. Russia's move could not be friendlier. A successful Galicia DMZ, and a fleet in Rumania that can never harm me. Turkey may not have moved to Armenia, but the Black Sea move shows me a Juggernaut is unlikely. But damned Italy.

Provided Turkey doesn't interfere, I can defend Vienna and Trieste, while keeping Serbia. A single build is not the end of the world. Or I can assume that Italy thinks I'll protect my home centers, and support myself to Greece hoping that Italy goes with the Bohemian Crusher (look it up, or ask your mentor).

Putting the moves aside, displaying vulnerability early before others have committed can work in my favor. I need to sell to Turkey and France on the fact that they don't want Italy consolidating the Balkans and the Mediterranean. If I can get Turkey to build a fleet in Smyrna and France to build a fleet in Marseilles, there is still plenty of hope.

England: 3/3. Russia sent Moscow south. Germany moved to Denmark and may very well bounce Sweden. And France failed to anticipate my cunning and let me do some Channel surfing right from the start. Good show!

I can smooth things over with France. At least I didn't move my army to Wales. Clearly, I'm just conservative and wanted to avoid an early exit. Why not support me to Belgium? That's an easy way for him to get me out of the Channel and into his heart. (he'll still probably have to cover Brest...hehe). And to Germany, I'm like a fish ground Fleischkäse. "See! I told you I've always preferred E/G to E/F! It's so much better to have an ally that can help me with both France and Russia!" And I'm Russia's babushka too. "See look! I never wanted to focus on Scandinavia."

My biggest concern is that gaping hope in Burgundy where there should be an army or a bounce. Damn. No matter how this turn ends up, if France places a fleet in Brest, and Germany places a fleet in Kiel, my success will be short-lived. When I use the leverage I obtained last turn to make deals this turn, I better not forget to insist on certain builds. Putting the right units on the board is everything here.

France 2/3. Italy appears quite occupied east. Germany actually honored a DMZ in Burgundy. Wow, it took a lot of trust to leave that one open. The one bad piece of news is that ugly pink destroyer off the coast of Brest.

Time to cozy up to England and insist that I always wanted to see Belgium turn pink anyway. If I can take two builds, cover Brest, and clear the Channel, I'm still winning, especially if I can build on my relationship with Germany. I cannot possibly spend too much time telling Germany how much I appreciate him respecting the Burgundy DMZ. I made DMZs with both of my western triangle neighbors, and Germany proved to be the trusting one. I want him to feel like I believe that I owe him something for his loyalty.

Germany: 2/3. France left Burgundy open. Merci. England stabbed France. Merci beaucoup! But the ladybug in my lager is Italy's move to Tyrolia. Sohn einer Hündin!

Sweden depends on (a) my read on the south, and (b) my read on Russia's build. While Russia lost Black Sea (already!), Austria is occupied, so it's not like Austria and Turkey are in position to poke the bear. If I think Russia is going to lose Rumania, I probably want to give him the build in Sweden as he'll have to use it for his own defense in the south anyway. I'd rather give Turkey a taller wall to smash into. And even if Russia may keep Rumania, if Russia convinces me that he'll build a fleet on the north coast of St. Petersburg, then I almost certainly want to invite him to Sweden. Perhaps he'll support himself from Sweden to Norway next year, while I slide into Sweden. That would work out very well.

My other moves depend somewhat on Italy. I mean, I'm definitely going to tell Italy that I'm covering Munich. Not sure yet if I'm actually going to do it.

Beyond that, I just want to make sure both England and France thinks that I'm their main ally when the builds roll around. I'm likely in a place to choose, but it gets more complicated if the fleet in the Channel moves to Belgium. Hmmm, it sure would be nice to leave Munich open so that I can bounce Channel - Belgium, just to keep that tension between England and France. Italy definitely made this move trickier.

Italy 4/5. France left me alone. Germany vacated Munich. Austria failed to defend himself, and Turkey made an aggressive move towards Russia! Che bello! The only larva in my lasagna is the DMZ in Galicia. A friendly purple bear on the horizon would have certainly given me more options.

Perfect spot for a Bohemian Crusher, of course. There is no risk in that, but less upside too. I could also make a play for Vienna or Trieste, it's just such a guessing game, and it would really hurt to guess wrong.

I suppose, no matter where I move, my biggest task here is to court Turkey as an ally, if I haven't already. The Galicia DMZ and the fleet in Rumania means that Russia is never going to help me stuff my strudel. If this attack is going anywhere, it's because Turkey is on my side.

Bul - Ser
Ion - Gre
Tyr S Ven - Tri?

Worth proposing.

Russia: 1/4. None of the moves were awful, but only Austria's was friendly. And the combination puts me in a precarious position. England moved the army over to York, which means that, while he likely violated a DMZ with France, he is still in position to convoy an army to Norway. Germany opened in a fairly standard way, but he still has a boot on my neck with that fleet ready to bounce me in Sweden. And Turkey kept Armenia free, but that fleet in Black Sea will be a dagger at my rib for a long time.

Okay, time to put the work in. Let's look on the bright side. I demonstrated honesty and integrity with two of my neighbors, honoring DMZs in Galicia and Black Sea. While England and Turkey are lying their way forward, I'm keeping promises and looking for a southern soul mate. I'm such a gosh darn cuddly bear! Love me, damn it!

I want Germany to let me into Sweden and Turkey to build a fleet in Smyrna after this year. Each one should be readily attainable if I am a halfway decent diplomat playing with reasonable players. Perhaps I can leverage my good feelings with Austria into an R/G/A. That is the kind of trio that can take control in a game like this. I just need to get Turkey going any direction but north. I can do this.

Turkey: 2/3. Delight! Russia left me the Black Sea. Italy moved on Austria. And while I don't like the Galicia DMZ, Austria basically has to focus on Italy, which gives me quite a lot of power. A fine looking start.

I may have poked the bear (not sure what the understanding was there), but I can talk him off that ledge -- it's not like I went to Armenia.

The trick now -- the way to make a good start great, is to find some way to get a second build this turn. Greece, or Rumania. Neither is going to be easy. Rumania seems extremely unlikely. Austria is going to need to use Serbia to defend himself or force Greece. I doubt he wants to use it to anger Russia and put two Turkish armies on his border. Greece is more likely, but it's sensitive. Maybe Italy would help me to Greece, but he would have to forego his own build to do it. Possible, but a tough sell. And Austria doesn't want Turkish armies in Greece/Bulgaria any more than he wants them in Rumania/Bulgaria.

If I can pull off a second build this phase, I'll deserve some praise from the peanut gallery, but more likely I'm lying in wait, allowing my neighbors to get a bit more entangled before I swoop in to undo some knots.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#31 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:11 am

peterwiggin wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:51 am
Question for Balki:

If I'm Germany, I can understand not wanting RT to roll over Austria, but how well do I actually want Austria to do? Won't a successful Austria be looking to take Munich and Berlin in order to set up a solo shot?
If I'm Germany, I have hardly any reservations about my desire for Austria to succeed, especially early. The biggest reason is that a large Austria contains Russia, who becomes much less likely to pay me an unwanted visit in the mid-game. But I also do much better without a dominant Turkey. The board just almost always looks better for Germany with a successful Austria, and a successful Austria very rarely attacks Germany.

In my experience, the few occasions that this has changed were games in which Austria got off to a much better start than I did, and was close to eliminating Turkey. If Austria pulls that off early, then he gets a corner, and all of a sudden all of his units flow towards the middle of the board. That's bad for me and everyone else.

Still, even in those circumstances, my efforts to keep Austria from running away are most likely just diplomatic. I would be encouraging France or Italy or Russia (or all three) to get down there and make sure the Turkish thorn is not removed from Austria's side. I'm still extremely unlikely to send even one unit across the stalemate line to nudge Austria, unless I've already struck off on my own in a solo push myself.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#32 Post by dargorygel » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:34 am

*Silently (lest it go to their heads) applauds the Prof's lectures.
*Silently (still observing Balki's la taille du chapeau )wonders if Balki's physically enhancing medicinals are also enhancing his mental abilities.
*Silently (lest it threaten MY head) approaches Balki, whering my "student costume" (thus the bad spelling/grammar!) and slip a TechnoTronic 1004 Breath-a-lizard in front of his lecturing mouth.
*Silently (because it's a READout... not an audible thingy) observes the readout... hmmm....
*Silently (you get the idea) decides to test JMO, too... although... do robots breath? Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
*Silently (I need a new shtick...) wonders why Captain Meme makes no rum references in his lectures...
*Silently appreciates the work those three have done.... performing enhanced or not...
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#33 Post by dargorygel » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:35 am

PLEASE remember to +1 the lecturers lectures. :-)
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#34 Post by tr1285 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:52 pm

The advice I've received before is that you should never break an agreement with anyone on the first move, because the rest of the board just sees you as untrustworthy for the remainder of the game. Do the professors not agree with this?
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#35 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:15 pm

tr1285 wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:52 pm
The advice I've received before is that you should never break an agreement with anyone on the first move, because the rest of the board just sees you as untrustworthy for the remainder of the game. Do the professors not agree with this?
I strongly disagree. I would say: “don’t break an agreement lightly.”

I try to have agreements in place with most powers on the board on most turns. If I never break them, there won’t be much I can do.

But there is a lot to be gained by making all of your neighbors feel that you are friendly in the opening year. That is easier to do from France, Russia, and Germany, for example, than from anyone else.

On the other hand, failing to commit to any war is its own kind of threat. If you are a friend to all of your neighbors, you are also a threat to each of them because your forces are not committed anywhere.

Lots of shades of gray here and few absolutes.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#36 Post by jmo1121109 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:32 pm

tr1285 wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:52 pm
The advice I've received before is that you should never break an agreement with anyone on the first move, because the rest of the board just sees you as untrustworthy for the remainder of the game. Do the professors not agree with this?
I'll add another perspective on this. You're going to run into people who have varying press styles and different views on lying in this game. Some people will lie constantly, break nearly every agreement, but you may find you can still work with them and convince them to do what you want. On the other extreme are people who will not tell a lie the entire time. They'll let you know they are going to ally with someone else, and they will not respond well at all to being lied too in return. And the majority of people are in the middle to varying degrees like myself and Balki. I'll tell lies of omission, I'll refuse to elaborate, or on occasion for a big stab I'll analyze every single word I send to make sure there's 0 press difference to warn someone a stab is coming.

Then you get into the varying excuses and when they are believable.

"Sorry, I misordered that move to the Black Sea, I initially had it in until our alliance agreement and I swear I changed it but I must have forgot, I'm so sorry"

"Sorry, I didn't get back online after you sent the message asking for the dmz, I thought we were good for this set of moves instead"

"Sorry, you're an idiot who sent awful press and I'm going to crush you"...okay maybe this one won't work so well.

But depending on the situation and the player a lie of why you broke an agreement can clear you. In other cases it'll make it worse and insult the person. Sometimes coming clean with them and apologizing but saying you're open to negotiations will be enough to force them into working with you after broken agreement even if they aren't happy about it.

And that's one of the key lessons for new players. Always be open to allying with someone, even if they just stabbed you. The game is about winning, not letting your ego get in the way of that. I've seen games when people come back from 1 center and win on more then 1 occasion on this site, so it's important for you to always keep options open and keep an open mind about continuing to talk to someone you just stabbed or who just stabbed you.

In my opinion any player who uses the mute button has utterly failed at this game and needs to stop playing. If someone's language is so abhorrent that you cannot tolerate it there is always the mod team, but decided to cut off all ties with the mute function signals a sub-par player.

I know I branched out my answer here, but the tldr take away is breaking agreements year 1 depends a lot on who you are playing against and how you think they will end up reacting to a broken agreement.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#37 Post by jmo1121109 » Tue Jul 02, 2019 1:30 am

I've been asked to clarify why I am against muting a bit more. So here we go. The entire mute functionality was largely put in place because back in the day the owner of the site was strongly against moderation of press of any type. What this resulted in was vulgar language that the moderator team was handicapped from doing anything about. So the mute feature was introduced as a way to allow people to ignore and block people being disgusting, racist, bigoted, etc.

Since then the owners have adjusted viewpoints, and the moderator team has implemented site rules that prevent the use of death threats, bigotry, and other crude/vile press tactics. People can still be jerks, but that is a valid in game strategy that can be mirrored in face to face play.

The intent of the mute functionality was never to undermine the press flow of games, nor to prevent people from talking and proposing new strategies to each other. Some top players like Swordsman have written how they use this feature to show other players they are serious about needing specific conditions met, and then later lifting the mute. While this is inventive, it does not really have a place compared to the face to face version, and is not what I intend for the software from a developer standpoint.

Due to the number of problems with the feature it's also possible it may have to be removed in the future, so I really want to discourage any players from getting accustomed to using it as a part of their diplomatic arsenal. The game is a game of negotiations, and they become difficult if not impossible when players rage mute each other after being stabbed. So I strongly encourage you to avoid muting each other and in fact I would even go so far to ask that the Game Director ban in game mutes for this teaching game as you will learn nothing if you mute each other.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#38 Post by Octavious » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:35 pm

A question for the professors from an interested observer.

How much do you think your commentary influences events. Looking specifically at Austria's delicious change into the Italian homeland, would such a move have been impossible to risk if it had been discussed at length in your comments? Do you think that the focus of those comments on defensive moves make the surprise offensive more likely?
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#39 Post by VillageIdiot » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:52 pm

Oh I like this professor mix! These are some interesting differing approaches to the game. Captainmeme I find to be a traditional master student of the board and game, Balki very much takes an artistic approach, and jmo is analytical and calculating but loves to think outside the box.

This should be very fun to follow along with just to see the different perspectives. This group should get a lot out of this and will get a lot of good options to pick and choose from when deciding how to craft their own style.
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#40 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Tue Jul 02, 2019 8:27 pm

Octavious wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:35 pm
A question for the professors from an interested observer.

How much do you think your commentary influences events. Looking specifically at Austria's delicious change into the Italian homeland, would such a move have been impossible to risk if it had been discussed at length in your comments? Do you think that the focus of those comments on defensive moves make the surprise offensive more likely?
Are there observer effects? Absolutely. Should players attempt to account for that to some extent? Probably. But you're dealing with a Vizzini "wine in front of you" puzzle that has no right answer.

We press onward. None of the professors here is trying to aid anyone in particular. The result is so very insignificant to me it's hard to put into words. This game is mostly just an excuse to lure me to share my secrets. Let's not pretend that there is any winner other than the entire universe.
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