School of War Summer 2019

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dargorygel
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#141 Post by dargorygel » Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:43 am

The SoW has drawn.
Thanks for playing, everyone! This was a fun game to watch. Thanks to the lecturers who lectured till they stopped... thanks to the players who kept playing... thanks to the mentors who mented... and thanks to our sub.
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mhsmith0
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Re: School of War Summer 2019

#142 Post by mhsmith0 » Sun Oct 13, 2019 4:22 am

I'm assuming that it's ok for non profs to post more stuff now that it's post game so...

I kind of want to talk more about that Turkish stab of Russia and why I didn't think it was an effective stab despite gaining a decent # of dots...

As of fall 1904, the board state was fairly unorganized in a lot of ways. England was fighting France, France was fighting Germany, Germany had to destroy a useful navy in GOB, and Turkey had one fleet in TYS, and there was no real stopping him from pushing multiple fleets near MAO if he wanted to press hard.

Dots wise, Turkey had 8 and Russia 8; Russia had two northern navies (which were no use against Turkey long term), and Russia was very heavily entangled in difficult fights with Germany AND England (and while Russia took a brief advantage over Germany via Berlin, STP was nearly impossible to hold against England, and Germany was probably going to be able to expel Russia from Berlin. In other words, Russia was doing great at holding off EG from growing rapidly, but was NOT in any real position to grow itself very quickly, and couldn't really stab Turkey in a meaningful way without collapsing his northern front. Meanwhile Turkey could roll up Italy really easily and then have the option to press hard for MAO or Munich or w/e. In other words, the status quo was GREAT for Turkey; great growth chances, multiple units not horribly far away from key stalemate lines, no real enemies of note, and not so large as to be an obvious solo threat.

Fall 1905: the alliance cracks a bit (though why did Turkey not just roll Tri-Ven supported by Tyr to lock in Italy's death?), but it's still reasonably salvageable. You can even make a reasonable case that Russia's "stab" in Trieste was ok for a stab alliance to stay even on centers, given the unavoidable loss of STP.

Spring 1906: Look at the moves that Turkey did NOT make. Specifically, Tus-Pie, and TYS-GOL along with ION-TYS. Those moves are DEVASTATING to the western alliance. Sneak an army into Marseilles in the fall and the Juggernaut R/T is in fantastic position to hit a 2wd or 3wd, and Turkey is very much the senior partner who will likely have a much better chance to stab for the solo instead of just some dots that don't really matter that much strategically (since Russia can't afford at all to get into a war with Turkey, Turkey's Balkans dots are highly secure in this stage)

Instead Turkey completely bails on his forward position (Tus-Alb is a monumental loss of tempo towards the vital stalemate positions around MAO, and note that England uses this turn to get into WMED, which is ALSO difficult to expel, which means that MAO is very nearly lost for Turkey)

Moreover, look at the overall positions of the units on the board as of Fall 1906. Turkey got some more bodies, but ENGLAND has the positioning around Warsaw and Moscow via the highly predictable SWE-Liv supported by STP, and then England takes Warsaw and Moscow and Turkey will never get those centers back in most worlds (even with a falling out between E/G, Turkey could only get one of those two centers, and was no threat at all towards Munich or Berlin, which are the centers Turkey needs for 18 if he can't get into MAO or Marseilles, which was mainly foreclosed with the elimination of the Russian naval threat against the western powers).

So instead of "at some indeterminate point in the future, Turkey can probably mega stab Russia and beeline for War/Mos and maybe Berlin/Munich as part a race to 18", Turkey's position gained dots and became secure but also inspired the western powers to band together to stop him. So what did he gain, in the end? I'd submit he lost far more than he gained with the stab. On his original course, he's headed towards rapidfire growth and a powerful push towards MAO, along with a northern ally (Russia) who has enough northern navies that the other powers simply CANNOT push all resources towards MAO to stop Turkey, or they get overrun that way. That's not an easy solo by any stretch, but it's an environment where a solo chance could come up, and barring that, you're likely sitting at a 2wd or 3wd, and there's very little chance that anyone else can roll a solo.

Anyway, I could certainly be wrong, but I remember thinking it was a poor stab at the time given the (imo fairly predictable) strategic consequences (as well as the loss of the opportunities presented by the RT alliance in which Turkey was the senior partner), and being surprised at the stellar grades given to it, and figured I'd try and flesh my thoughts out a bit more.

PS One response given to my earlier post was that Italy was useful as a buffer/puppet... but was he? Italy was in no position to threaten Marseilles or MAO, so rather than be a thorn in the western powers' side, Italy was instead just a roadblock for Turkey's expansion (which got fairly easily cleared in the end anyway).
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