Search found 28 matches

by Puscherbilbo
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Should Italy open west more?
Replies: 12
Views: 704

Re: Should Italy open west more?

I mentioned it elsewhere:
Taking Triest and using that 5th built vs France is a nice option.
Basically Fleet+Army east, 2 Fleets+Army west.
It is very hard for Austria do play a hard counter here without selfdestruction.
Even in an A/I 5th italian built much more useful than Austrian.
by Puscherbilbo
Sun Aug 04, 2019 2:09 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03
Replies: 27
Views: 1201

Re: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03

Or the fleet gets build in Naples..
And any Fleetbuilt of Austria should upset Italy.
by Puscherbilbo
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:00 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03
Replies: 27
Views: 1201

Re: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03

But that would have made that fleet kind of obsolete...
by Puscherbilbo
Sat Aug 03, 2019 12:57 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Should you ever *not* take Galicia in 1901S?
Replies: 15
Views: 1063

Re: Should you ever *not* take Galicia in 1901S?

I am not sure you can isolate a singular interaction here in the way you are trying to. Basically my point is that bouncing costs both parties a little. while trusting each other should benefit both. There will be an equlibrium entailing bounces. maybe even as highfreq strat. But there also will be ...
by Puscherbilbo
Sat Aug 03, 2019 12:18 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Should you ever *not* take Galicia in 1901S?
Replies: 15
Views: 1063

Re: Should you ever *not* take Galicia in 1901S?

I believe that sentence to be utterly nonsensical. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-sum_game The limited amount of centers make it a zero-sum-game. There is no way to increase the amount of centers available to all players. If you loose valueshare it gets distributed amongst remaining players. Pri...
by Puscherbilbo
Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:07 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Should you ever *not* take Galicia in 1901S?
Replies: 15
Views: 1063

Re: Should you ever *not* take Galicia in 1901S?

you get a 50% shot at a center. which is tough to defend w/o I or T. Turkey gets into Bla or you dont get Rum. You are certainly not dead. Although i suspect russia to have a little more incentive to leave Gal open. But my more general point stands. An attack on Austria or vice versa only is useful ...
by Puscherbilbo
Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Should you ever *not* take Galicia in 1901S?
Replies: 15
Views: 1063

Re: Should you ever *not* take Galicia in 1901S?

Since there are other players involved that is not true. There are 34 centers. If we assign each center a pointvalue (1 for simplicity sake) then your current position equals a certain %% between 1 and 17. Imagine further that the numberamount of your centers does not necessarily equal your true sha...
by Puscherbilbo
Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Should you ever *not* take Galicia in 1901S?
Replies: 15
Views: 1063

Re: Should you ever *not* take Galicia in 1901S?

If Italy opens to Tyr and especially more often to Triest a Russian initiative could be viable in GB. Seems like a fairly reasonable spot where trust can be rewarding. At least some variation might serve both players to be less predictable. Generally speaking for A and R that spot seems like a zero ...
by Puscherbilbo
Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03
Replies: 27
Views: 1201

Re: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03

If Italy does not go for this kind of stupid built then an army surpasses a Fleet in its usefulness. The situation seems highly fluent tactically. So delaying any advance of our neighbours hightens the probability for someone to switch sides. I am also banking on the fact that Russia might go for th...
by Puscherbilbo
Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03
Replies: 27
Views: 1201

Re: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03

Well i think Italy should have built a Fleet. At least for me it is not conceivable why an Austro-Russian alliance would be more beneficial to Russia than an Russian-Italian one. The tactical superior position vs Turkey should be more or less permanent. So carving up Austria and then reorganizing Tu...
by Puscherbilbo
Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:50 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03
Replies: 27
Views: 1201

Re: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03

In GB going to Triest has to be better than bouncing Gal. With 5 units and even little Italian help i can hold my own. Especially vs R. And playing for time is great here. Russia will eventually loose interest and stab T. The moveorder is fairly Anti-French usually going for Mar and Fleets west. Ven...
by Puscherbilbo
Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03
Replies: 27
Views: 1201

Re: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03

As Germany i vacate Bur to Mun and still go for that alliance with France. Because of that tactical error before G is in a bit of a rough spot depending more on F than he would like to. Ruhr-Kiel seems necessary. Funnily enough even with 3 builts France still is the kingmaker here. sind F+G > E/R an...
by Puscherbilbo
Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03
Replies: 27
Views: 1201

Re: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03

Clearly Germany expected to get Bel and be allied with E with seems unrealistic. I am missing proactively tapping North. Smart choice by england there. I would not have had that lvl of trust into Russia in me i suppose. But looks like it worked out splendidly. As Russia i think i think i would have ...
by Puscherbilbo
Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03
Replies: 27
Views: 1201

Re: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03

Think i try to bounce Italy in ION/VEN/TYR. If Russia+Turkey work together he has to be made aware there is no immediate gain for him not helping me. Serb+Bud hold each other. I am willing to gamble on turkish neutrality since he is in a much weaker spot then Russia and should be at least sceptical ...
by Puscherbilbo
Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03
Replies: 27
Views: 1201

Re: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03

The situation in the south leaves Russia as kingmaker and no apparent alliances just yet. So my built should reflect both that i am no easy target should he choose to ally someone else and that i am the potentially most useful ally. In that regard a Fleet is at least somewhat understandable. Still i...
by Puscherbilbo
Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03
Replies: 27
Views: 1201

Re: Anatomy of a Critical Gunboat Turn: Austria, Autumn 01 - Spring 03

Well the French moveset clearly surprises. No matter what you should take Por here. and gambling on 2nd built either by not protecting Brest or Mar seems legit. But you NEED to get that 1st built at the very least. For England i prefer stabbing Brest or trying for MAO at least occasionally if you go...
by Puscherbilbo
Mon Jul 22, 2019 10:42 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5888

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

no. it is about evaluationsystems of a certain position.
In chess humans are just incapable to reach that lvl a computer does.
But computerevaluations are generally accepted as baseline even though in human vs human games suboptimal solutions may render better results.

There is no such baseline here.
by Puscherbilbo
Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:41 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5888

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

In chess there are two different ways to evaluate the quality of a move. Either by a mathematical system basically assigning a pawn the value of 1 and evaluating each position accordingly. Or by an estimation of your actual winrate vs yourself in a high number of games. (This one to my knowledge int...
by Puscherbilbo
Mon Jul 22, 2019 10:09 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5888

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

Have you adressed the multiplayer component somewhere? All your examples from computergames only apply to 1vs1 if i am not mistaken. Imho this especially holds true for the first few moves but which are possibly the most important ones for the outcome. He talks about this in the first point in the ...
by Puscherbilbo
Mon Jul 22, 2019 5:29 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5888

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

Have you adressed the multiplayer component somewhere?
All your examples from computergames only apply to 1vs1 if i am not mistaken.
Imho this especially holds true for the first few moves but which are possibly the most important ones for the outcome.