Finished: 01 PM Sun 15 Nov 20 UTC
Private Fakthong kaeng buat
1 day, 12 hours /phase
Pot: 70 D - Autumn, 1910, Finished
Classic, No messaging, Anonymous players, Draw-Size Scoring, Hidden draw votes
2 excused missed turn
Game won by teccles (1608 D)
29 Oct 20 UTC Autumn, 1903: Moderator: (bo_sox48): This game has been paused by request. If you object to this pause, please email webdipmod@gmail.com and we will unpause the game.
01 Nov 20 UTC Autumn, 1903: Moderator: (bo_sox48): Unpaused.
14 Nov 20 UTC Congrats, Austria!

Not sure if seren’s wrath will be directed solely towards me for allowing Austria to waltz into Venice or also towards Germany for the Berlin debacle lol.

My apologies to all of you for my moves in Fall 1907. I severely underestimated Austria’s ability to cripple me. I know this in no way justifies my piss poor read in 1907, but I’ll give some of my thoughts that led to my gross misplaying.

I recognized that Austria would come for me eventually. I moved in 1905 and 1906 to protect ION, the most important square on the board for Italy. I figured as long as I held ION, I’d be able to counter any Austrian attack. Unfortunately, my over-prioritized of ION led to me not respecting the Austrian army in Tyrolia.

Looking back at Fall 1907, I have no idea why I didn’t deem it essential to cover Venice. I think perhaps I thought there was a chance that Austria wouldn’t attack, given that they hadn’t the previous two years when they bordered ION. Again, my over-prioritization of ION came into play here. I think I was also blinded by my greed with Iberia. I didn’t expect Austria to have been handed Berlin and Munich. I thought I’d have enough time to make inroads in Iberia before Austria would turn. Obviously that happened prior to Fall 1907 though, so there’s no excuse for me not turning from Iberia. I was too set on getting Iberia that I didn’t properly size up the threat. If I had thought it through more thoroughly, I can’t imagine I’d leave Venice open in those circumstances.

My apologies for that blunder. I welcome and deserve your wrath! If it’s any consolation (which I know it isn’t), I’ll be sure to learn from this one. I’ll be more thoughtful with moves in the future as well.
14 Nov 20 UTC My apologies for the message of yesterday, it was out of order, a moronic knee jerk reaction that I should know better than to give in to.

Posting the following written before finding out any player identities.

Germany, sorry I did not support Kiel in A08, I was thinking that if you guessed him to tap Kiel, you would just simply attack Berlin, because if he was going to tap Kiel, then Berlin was not going to be defended. So I supposed I could keep giving the support I was giving, and if you wanted to guess that he’d tap Kiel, you would attack Berlin. I should have read the board better. My bad, I’m very sorry, 100% my fault, you did the right one and I did the wrong one. Shockingly we could have done again those orders to take Munich in A10, but of course this was not on you in any way, you couldn’t have been expected to make that kind of guess.

However, I really am going to say, those last guesses were an uphill battle that we should not have been forced to fight in the first place. Well played games are won on strategy: the situation we were faced with in A08 should never have materialized to begin with.

Italy, I say this with the best intentions, truly I do, the intentions that players will learn from their mistakes how to read the board, this of course is not a natural skill for anyone and must be developed, sometimes the hard way like now. I will take the time to explain, why I think your choices following Austria’s A06 stab were an egregious blunder.

Up through S06, everything is going perfectly for Italy. A great position, a solid alliance, enough units to fight France. At this point Italy has the position to play for an AIG, which looks like the most likely outcome of this game that includes a good result for Italy, a solo is hardly likely with Austria so strong, and Germany is in a good position to be the dominant power in the north. So, 3 way draw of central triple, all very standard and very good for Italy. Everything changes in A06. Austria screams, so obviously, he is not interested in any AIG. This turn needs to set off alarm bells for the whole board. Austria is in Berlin with Munich near guaranteed the next year. Austria needs 2 of the following SC to solo: Stp, Berlin, Munich, Tunis. Just two. And then wipe out the rest of the south, easy. Munich and Berlin are the most dangerous, in my opinion, because when a southern power controls both it is very hard to dislodge them from it. Very hard, and sometimes impossible, if the southern power sets up a stalemate line behind Munich and Berlin - which is very easy for Austria to do, elementary really, all he has to do is spam armies into the territories behind. Then, that is a near guaranteed solo, he has enough units to take over the rest of the south.

That makes Austria an *urgent* solo threat unless Italy reacts immediately. Italy is the only one who is even in a position to do anything about Austria. Russia is out of the south and France and Germany, obviously, cannot fight Austria, especially as Germany just got caught with his pants down. So at this point it’s ITALY and Italy alone who needs to react. In my opinion Italy should all out fight Austria after seeing his declaration of war in A06 - a stab on Germany at that point is equivalent to a stab on Italy, because there is no endgame with both Italy and Austria that does not involve Germany in good shape. Italy should think about this and realise that Austria is going for the win right here, right now, and needs to react. Italy not even blinking and continuing to throw EVERYTHING at France to the point of not even covering a very obvious move to Venice in A07 is appalling, on the level of hanging scholar’s mate in a game of chess, that is how elementary I consider this Italian blunder to be. It’s a complete failure to read the board if Italy thinks Austria is going to 3 way draw with him after attacking Germany (or, even worse, 2 way draw with him..lmao). It’s also a strategic blunder if Italy thinks he can get into this draw by crossing the line at France and then joining the line there, and giving the south to Austria. This is not possible because Austria holds Munich and Berlin both for 18, and has plenty of armies ready to defend them, which means that if he is not attacked from behind - ie, BY ITALY, the game is lost for EVERYONE. And so it was.

In all games, players should think ‘what endgame is my ally playing for? And does it include me?’ And if it does not include you, well then I have news for you, that guy is not your ally. And you have to behave like it.

England, your refusal to do anything to advance your own position until the north was lost was very disappointing. MAO is a great place to be..if you have enough units to fight for Scan while blockading France (one support on MAO, two or much better three units in the meantime to fight for Scan which is the sensible English growth path, there are no dots in the ocean), or a German ally. You had neither. Holding forever in MAO and Channel and NTH while Germany takes over all of Scan, is suicide. Germany made it very clear, numerous support hold to Burgundy, never moving west, that he had no intention of ever helping England kill France (and note that France had also supported England into Belgium in 01, rather than bouncing his very obvious convoy, which England reciprocated by..building fleet Liverpool), England doesn’t care..and then attacks Holland with North Sea as the mover in A04 and then after it fails because of French intervention, saving his ass, he does it again in A05, one of the ugliest moves and revealing of an appalling lack of understanding of position. Listen up, NTH at that point is worth a whole 2.5, yes 2.5, dots to England. While England holds NTH he has hope and a future, when NTH is lost, that’s the end for England, 99% of the time. England if he wants to have hope of survival must never ever allow a foreign fleet into NTH, and that includes French fleet, German fleet, Russian fleet etc. Moving with NTH and supporting with Belgium is saying, ‘I believe Germany will tap NTH, and I value Holland more than NTH, so I am going to move with NTH’, this is a complete blunder and if Austria had not made his solo run, this game would have ended in an easy AIG 3 way draw as a result of amateurish English play. In fact the situations where England should use NTH as the mover to take an SC are very rare, it’s almost always much better idea if possible to convoy an army via NTH, of course this is often not possible and is a challenge England must work around, making it probably the country in GB with the steepest learning curve. But the point stands, do not give up NTH, if you think trading it for Hol or Den or Nwy is worth it, this is wrong, North Sea is Britain’s lifeblood.
14 Nov 20 UTC The only sound reason by the way, for Italy to keep on pressing at France after Austria has successfully crossed the line, is in a "race to 18" type situation where Italy thinks there is a chance he too can pick up the dots he needs on the other side and then outfight Austria. Because Austria was +3 or +4 SC on Italy at that point, there was not a chance Italy would ever come out on top in that fight, and so, it was a poor read.
14 Nov 20 UTC Well the other reason would be if Italy thinks Austria can be driven out of Munich and Berlin in time for it to draw with Italy as part of the line in Iberia, but I have already written why this was impossible here, Austria was way too strong in Munich and Berlin.
14 Nov 20 UTC It was a good stab. It was not too terrible a judgment by Germany to gamble that Austria would be content to play for the AIG there, especially as he was going to build that year, although of course in retrospect it would have been better if Berlin had been covered all the way back at the start.
14 Nov 20 UTC Thanks for the game everyone!

Yeah, I agree with jasnah that Italy should have reacted strongly to my stab; at the very least by setting up a firm defense in PIE/VEN. There was no real chance of eliminating France or soloing for Italy.

Russia did well to blockade St P, and make themselves esssential there. I was quite hopeful I'd get St P.
14 Nov 20 UTC I agree wholeheartedly with your assessments of my play, seren and teccles. The assessments have been read and digested for future games. It was truly egregious play. Well done, teccles, for taking advantage of what lay before you!
14 Nov 20 UTC ggs, I did what I could?

@Italy, yeah I'm not mad just disappointed XD but I also +1 the idea that sometimes you need to make an endgame mistake to learn how to avoid it in the future. It just sucks.

I will say, Seren's article about stalemate lines help cement my knowledge about why a southern power getting BER or MUN is so scary. So once I saw Austria in Berlin with Germany likely unable to reclaim it any time soon, that's when I knew we might be fucked XD
14 Nov 20 UTC Austria, many congratulations, no matter how everybody else played its always very hard to solo as A!

I take exception at the patronising and aggressive French tone, irrespective of whether I agree or not with it. I don't remember F, which is the strongest country on the map, making a big impression on the game.

My game was pretty average but I felt i was only helping G win so I had to do something different and take some risks, and it didn't pay off.

Gg anyway!
14 Nov 20 UTC It's been a long time since F is anything like the strongest country on the map. These days you are lucky not to have opening to the Channel, Burgundy and Piedmont in S01.
14 Nov 20 UTC Hi all, good game. Here is my take/feedback

Italy: I don't think I need to say anything more :) Hope the lesson is learnt.

Fra: Agreed on everything from Austria's stab onward. With regard to why I did not defend Berlin in Spring 1906: I knew there was a good probability of an Austrian attack, but I expected this would trigger Italy immediately turning on Austria, and lead to an eventual draw. I thought I had a good chance of being a part of this draw by virtue of being on the stalemate line. Since I didn't see Italy's error coming, I did not judge Austrian solo to be the biggest threat

Instead, I perceived France and England ganging up on me as the bigger threat. If you look at the Board in Spring 1906, that would have been the turn where I had my last chance to really break England, after which I could build in Berlin and most likely guarantee being a major power for the rest of the game. Of course I also did not foresee that you would cripple me by supporting Ruhr to Hol that turn :) that was a good move.. I think you can understand why I took Burgundy and Hol the next turn - I did not want to have my army killed given that I would not be able to build in my home SCs, and I also did not trust the English army in Hol to coordinate well in holding the stalemate line.

One question - why did you choose to ally with England instead of with Germany despite all the signs you listed? Was the concern that I would turn on you afterwards? I wonder if we had any chance of a deal where you get the English home SCs and I keep proceeding east, and what else I could have done differently to bring it about.
14 Nov 20 UTC and yes I can understand why Eng turned on me, no hard feelings there :)
14 Nov 20 UTC Yeah Germany, I was gutted but I understood your support into Burgundy and actually rate the move quite highly after I got over it, I waffled on supporting Munich to 'hold' at the cost of Marseille but ultimately I didn't do it because I figured there was a good chance you would try to move Munich, although I expected you to move it to Berlin with support instead lol.
14 Nov 20 UTC I helped England there because I saw an AIG draw coming and desperately wanted to buy myself time by harassing you, so that I could go and get to the English SC before you. I never had any intention of trying to eliminate you, it was my hope that we could 4 way draw FGAI, it was my only path to survival that I could foresee at that point (and it would have worked well had Italy turned on Austria as we both hoped for).
14 Nov 20 UTC I didn't actually ally with England, I had just forced his army in Belgium to disband that spring
14 Nov 20 UTC Yes, that's why I didn't see the Hol support coming :)

The Bur Mun also had to do with trying to help Italy get a build. I was hoping he would follow up next turn by GoL supporting hold at Mar while Pie clashes Tyr out of Ven... then getting a build in Naples. I did not know if I could count on you/Eng reading the implications of the Austrian stab immediately.

I also wonder if we could have set up a stalemate line in Autumn1909, if you had either guessed Italy's move and moved into Tyr (I think what Italy did was actually the optimal move given the risk of you hitting Tyr), or if Italy had instead taken Rom with Tus. But I did not pay that much attention to the south, so I could be wrong.
14 Nov 20 UTC Yeah, I should have followed up into TYS, that one's on me, I was playing with significant emotional duress at that point, not my best

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

Austria
teccles (1608 D)
Won. Bet: 10 D, won: 70 D
18 supply-centers, 16 units
France
jasnah (192 D)
Survived. Bet: 10 D
6 supply-centers, 5 units
Germany
anlari (8198 D)
Survived. Bet: 10 D
4 supply-centers, 4 units
England
Djantani (420 D)
Survived. Bet: 10 D
3 supply-centers, 3 units
Russia
pyxxy (475 D)
Survived. Bet: 10 D
2 supply-centers, 1 units
Italy
AleaIactaEst (993 D)
Survived. Bet: 10 D
1 supply-centers, 1 units
Turkey
Josafina (113 D)
Defeated. Bet: 10 D
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