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Finished: 06 AM Fri 11 Sep 20 UTC
Private Nexus Season 5 Game 4
1 day /phase
Pot: 35 D - Spring, 1911, Finished
Classic, Anonymous players, Unranked
1 excused missed turn
Game drawn
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: Alright, public chat time.

France has Tunis unless Turkey support holds it, and they've got a 50/50 on me up north. I've got Munich and Berlin locked up, but Kiel is looking out of reach. Turkey has Rome and Naples guaranteed, even with the option to keep Italy alive in Tunis. And then they have 1 center off me, guaranteed?

Russia: +MUN, +BER, 50% -StP or -NWY, -BUD or -RUM, so either 11 or 10 centers
France: -MUN, 50% +StP or +NWY, maybe +TUN, so anywhere from 10 to 12 centers
Turkey: +ROM, +NAP, +BUD or +RUM, so 11 centers

Does this look right?
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: I only care about keeping Tunis.
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: So France qt 11, Russia at 12-14ish, and Turkey at 10-12ish?
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: So France qt 11, Russia at 12-14ish, and Turkey at 10-12ish?
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: Hey Russia! Turkey said they won't stab you, so believe in them a little!
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: I see situations in which Turkey and Russia could trade centers in the south so it is possible for Turkey to be at 10 while Russia ends up at 11 definitely.

There is no reason for Turkey not to support me to hold in Tunis, lowering France's score is objectively good for him. My guess is that France will be even.

Though it is also possible for France to gain neither StP nor Norway. Difficult, but possible.
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: Budapest is guaranteed. No matter what. Vienna can be covered with Bohemia. The question is what does Black Sea and Con/Bul do?
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: Hey Russia, trust in Turkey a little. He said he won't stab you
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: Hey Russia, trust in Turkey a little. He said he won't stab you
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: If Turkey lets France take Tunis, then France can guess for their 12th center, which would guarantee the board top because it would come from me. If Frances guesses wrong, then all three of us tie for board top with 11 centers?

If Turkey support holds Tunis, then France is doing a 50/50 guess to regain their 11th center. If they fail, then I solo board top? If they succeed, then we 3-way tie for board top?

Did I reason that out correctly? Or am I biased :P
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: lmao I should have refreshed the chat, sorry
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: Ugh, my internet is really wonky today. What Italy said. There's what, a 25% chance that Russia gets something from Turkey with F-BLA?
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: There is another move that is required to prevent Russia from losing another dot, I'm not going to say it because it should be really obvious.
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: *starts squinting really hard*
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: If Turkey let's France into Tunis and France guesses right France solo tops. If France guesses wrong you all tie at 11. Unless Russia gets one more off of Turkey, that would be a 12-11-10 with Russia leading.

If Turkey supports me in Tunis and France guesses wrong and Turkey leaves Russia alone Russia solo tops. If Turkey takes Bud and defends all his centers there is a three way tie at 11, unless France guess right, then it's 12-12-10, with Russia being the odd man out.

Given all that I think it is in Turkey's best interest to support hold Tunis.
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: Wow I missed a lot time to read...
08 Sep 20 UTC Spring, 1910: TLDR, support me to hold in Tunis.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Gg
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: This is the sickest way to end a game that I've seen in a while :)
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Apologies to Germany. I had to confirm my spot.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Well played everyone, I tried a last minute plea to mods to get Austria replaced to make one move in one turn, but a fair result I think.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: I'm assuming you're pyxxy, Russia?
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Thankfully I don't think Austria could have done anything given my moves other than maybe attempt to throw to Russia and even that may be declined considering it would have weakened his position
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Like I said I played as though Austria was still here.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: badda bing badda boom, Turkey...does that make you TheFlyingBoat?
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Indeed
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Was there a move set in response to your moves that gets me two of your centers? I couldn't find one
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: That was a lie :P
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: I gotta sleep now, see y'all tomorrow
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: I assumed so. I came up with multiple movesets that denied me two no matter what I ordered and I figured since you were pyxxy (I was 95% sure), someone literally competing against me in the Top 100 GR Gunboat tourney, you would have seen at least one of them.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: And France I have no idea who you are, but you also played an amazing game, and you have no idea how grateful I am to you for making that guess. Congrats on a well played game. You should be proud.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: As for Italy, bravo for holding on. Your post explaining why I should support hold Tunis was a great explanation. It was thorough without being overly verbose and cut to the heart of the issue really well. While I only told you I would do so after you offered to give me intel, I had actually already committed to supporting you before you made that offer. You played well and managed a tough position after having to deal with an unfortunate Austrian stab
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Germany, it was a pleasure talking to you even though we never got to actually coordinate too many moves together or ever actually get close positional. Thanks for sending me press throughout and for being an enjoyable person to talk to.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: England, thanks for the early banter that was a pleasure. Sad you were not long for the world, it would have been fun to talk to you more.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Austria, I tried hard but unfortunately we could never make things work or get on the same page. Hopefully we can share a board successfully in the future despite us being at loggerheads this game.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: And last, but not least, Russia, I've already praised you earlier but now I just want to thank you for being a great ally. I thought we worked together very well during the middle years and I am glad neither of us tried to stab the other for a dot or two despite both of us having opportunities to do so (all of which would have resulted in suboptimal positions for the both of us imo). I did especially appreciate you sending Black Sea back to Rum instead of playing a guessing game with me over Bul/Con/Ank. I am also glad I elected no to build F Ank as that was a real consideration. Would you have actually thrown if I did it?
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Russia, If you weren't going to do the moves to cover Vie and Rum why didn't you use Bud to cover Rum and Bla to try for Ank or Con?
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Good game to you too Turkey.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Idk if people prefer AARs in this chat or in the nexus discord? So I'll just put something short here.

First message is actually for Austria. I'm sorry that our relationship turned out the way it did. I was 100% your ally for the first two years, but after you couldn't commit to my special moveset in A02, I just felt like I couldn't trust you any more. Combined with the fact that original Italy turned on you, and so I wanted to make sure that they didn't just get all of the spoils, I betrayed you and allied with Turkey. After that, there was just never quite a good enough stab on Turkey to make it worth re-allying with you.

Both Italies...you are fickle beings ;) always back and forth between attacking Austria and letting them be. I wish y'all had just picked one XD

England, apologies for opening north. I realize now that I was heavily biased towards such an opening because of all the gunboat that I play *facepalm* even if it maybe wasn't the best decision.

France, it was fun corresponding with you the entire game. I think those conversations say more than I could say now. Well guessed at the end.

Germany, I'm not mad at you for attacking me. I'm sure you feel enough regret on your own. What I am sorry for is my weird moves in scandinavia during the early/mid-game. I think I was too focused on the south, and was content with my position in the north, and didn't think about what I was actually doing. I'm cringing looking at my move to SKA in A02, just no good reason for it if I wasn't going to attack you, and I somewhat attribute your decision to attack me to these bad moves. You should have gone after France though ;)

For the late game, I always intended to leave you on 1-2 centers. It sucks that I couldn't do that, and it's probably my fault for not dotting Turkey in 1909. Not kidding (sorry Turkey).

@Turkey. Yeah we were good allies, no question. I'm still surprised that you trusted me right away in S03, but maybe you already had figured out who I was by then? Because when you messaged me in the aftermath of A02, that's when I figure that you were TheFlyingBoat, and your mutual acknowledgement of experience helped me trust you.

But ultimately I feel like I threw away a board top here, and that's credit to your press, I guess. I should have dotted you for Rumania in 1909. I didn't think through the end game math in A09, which would have shown me that you were going to get to at least 10 centers. Of course, I didn't dot you because that felt wrong, which means your diplomacy worked :|

Last thing...I told Italy to offer (fake) moves to you in return for keeping them alive. I was pretty sure you would support hold TUN anyway, but I figured it would be good to sweeten the deal. I knew that Italy's offer might ring true depending on how they wrote their press to you, and I knew that I was feeding you the lie about there being a two center moveset. So by sending the moves BUD to VIE, BLA to RUM, I was hoping that you would see TRI to BUD and BUL to RUM supported by SER, which then my real moves would counter. But I think that was an ambitious lie, considering you knew who I was.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: re: Italy's question, I think my AAR to Turkey partially explains that. The other answer is what I was trying to do in the north. I needed BOH free to help guarantee that I take KIE while also maintaining the 50/50 guess for France, while also making sure that I either board top or tie for first.

Also going for ANK felt like an actual betrayal for our relationship. At that point, I decided that I should have just dotted them in 1909, and because I didn't realize that, I didn't deserve to win by being rude to them in 1910.

Turkey, yes, I would have thrown. I was pretty pissed at you for breaking our agreement of getting me the board top. Ultimately the blame rests with myself for not doing the work to guarantee it, but at that point on that turn, yes I would have thrown to France by 1-2 centers in order to make my point. But I wouldn't have told you that. My press was to you was the same either way, if you review it, because it was all before builds adjudicated.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: My personal belief is there is no such thing as "being rude" in Diplomacy. As long as everyone treats each other with civility in press. A stab can never be "dishonorable" or rude. Unless it is to throw a solo, in which case it could be either.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: I'm surprised you were pissed about me breaking that agreement. If I were in your shoes I would have assumed it was coming the moment it became clear the vassal had a chance to top. That's also why I wasn't too surprised or angered by your move to the Black Sea: I absolutely expected it.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Let me reiterate that it was a misplay to let you get close to winning at all. Maybe it's inexperience in press diplomacy on my part. But after messing up the capture of TRI, I perceived that you were content with the board state. After all, we're all in 3 games now, and that can be stressful and busy. I figured you know you had guaranteed points in this game, and so you wouldn't try hard to get anything more out of it. I knew you were a good player, but sometimes good players become satisfied with their arrangements and that's the vibe I was getting. It was the wrong vibe :P
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: I was in a constant uphill battle lmao, I would've done the same as you to be honest, and I was expecting a stab, not much to say other than I got bogged down in Turkey for too long to be healthy.
09 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Would everyone mind readying up their orders so we could complete winter adjudication and draw?
10 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: Drawing now would work too, actually
10 Sep 20 UTC Autumn, 1910: I've done both.
10 Sep 20 UTC And me
10 Sep 20 UTC Ordering all holds.
10 Sep 20 UTC Wow I called everyone exactly except I had England and Italy swapped

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

France
Chesney (604 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
11 supply-centers, 11 units
Turkey
TheFlyingBoat (1177 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
11 supply-centers, 10 units
Russia
pyxxy (704 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
11 supply-centers, 11 units
Italy
ubercacher16 (169 D)
Drawn. Bet: 0 D, won: D
1 supply-centers, 1 units
England
ZeroCorvidKN (100 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
Germany
vulfy (460 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
Austria
Minedodge (100 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
Civil Disorders
larrythelobster (0 D X)Italy (Spring, 1903) with 4 centres.
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