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Finished: 07 AM Wed 27 Nov 19 UTC
Private France Rises
1 day, 1 hours /phase
Pot: 10 D - Autumn, 1905, Finished
4 excused missed turn
Game won by BunnyGo (207 D)

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Chat archive

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18 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1901: I’m changing it up! One of the powers of Austria is selecting the theater of conflict.
18 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1901: ha! I almost opened to Piedmont.
18 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1901: Almost did MAO too.
18 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1901: I had decided to change it in 1903 if we were the same that long.
20 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1902: I'm a little surprised you didn't take Rome.

I'm also surprised you didn't let me into Munich in the spring to get into Piedmont in the spring if you weren't going to take Rome.
20 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1902: For the first time in our 3 games, I'm actually feeling like I'm in an OK position.
20 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1902: At least...this was the board I was aiming for after your 1901.
20 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1902: I thought carefully about how to move VEN, and decided that the value of moving to PIE was more important.
1. I don’t need ROM right now if I capture MUN.
2. If I leave PIE open, you will walk into PIE next turn. But if I force you to dislodge me, you have to use GoL to get PIE.

I think not making supported attacks on MUN is too Hugh an opportunity cost.

You’re in a fine position, or like, I agree I don’t think you messed up the start of the match. Now you need to overcome Austria’s starting momentum. We are just about to enter the guessing phase of the game. Let’s see what happens next!
22 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: Now this is a super interesting turn. A couple of possible guesses and counters here.

You don't have a lot of opportunities for captures, so you should be placing high value on moves that could potentially result in captures, and lower value on positioning moves. You want to make at least 1 capture somewhere.

I've played a lot of F/A matches with newer players who learn that aggressive positions are really important (after previously over-valuing captures), but sometimes make the mistake of ignoring the need for captures, and then they have a few good positions but eventually get outflanked/overpowered by an opponent who has attained a much bigger army.

Here, you could attempt to take TUN or VEN, but I can also block those. You can outguess me to get either MUN or BER, or I guess theoretically both if I make crazy moves, but you don't have a way of guaranteeing either one (I don't think?). You could capture SWE for sure, but I'm think that might be admitting defeat.

I can probably get at least 2 captures, possibly 3, but I can also risk losing TUN/VEN/MUN depending on what I do. If I could gamble/guess right and capture a few centers while losing zero to you, I'll probably pull way ahead in this match. If you get 1 build and I get 1 or 2, we're probably roughly even. If I lose 2 centers to you, that might be game.
22 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: But I forgot to say, you're still getting good guesses on me. I wasted my moves covering TUS and TYS.
22 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: The guess that went your way was Burgundy. I could have supported from Mar, but didn’t expect it to help
22 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: That's true. I sort of expected you to support PAR to BUR with RUH, but thought I had nothing better to do.
22 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: I expected Piedmont to cut mar support
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: GAH! THIS TURN IS STRESSFUL!
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: I thought you had me right where you wanted me!

The guessing is intricate this turn, and the incentives are hard to estimate. the valuation questions this turn are very difficult to answer.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: yes...the valuation is hard, the counters are hard, and the influence of one zone on another is hard.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: I think you're correct, it's very likely this game (nearly) ends this turn one way or the other.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: And yes...France having to make 1 big guess for a (near) win is a good position to be in.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: Had I guessed better with Marseille last turn, I'd think I was ahead
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: Just the decisions of "go for an open center" and "defend the obvious open center" are huge. Do I want to try for Venice? Do you want to defend Venice with Tuscany? Adriatic? Self bounce? Should I prod Tyrolia and maybe end up there? Go for Tunis? Take Tyr sea? And all those influence the guess in Munich...GAH!

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