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Finished: 07 AM Wed 27 Nov 19 UTC
Private France Rises
1 day, 1 hours /phase
Pot: 10 D - Autumn, 1905, Finished
4 excused missed turn
Game won by BunnyGo (207 D)
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: Hmm...I don't see Piedmont that way. Venice vs Tyrolia vs Esoteric (Tuscany or other), it doesn't seem germane to the Germany guess. Me being in Tyrolia doesn't affect the match much if I lose the guess in Germany, so you can attack with Tyrolia if it matters.

Truthfully, I think the threat of losing outright to that if you play A means you probably won't play A. Likewise, C is pretty bad for you.

It makes 2 look like a pretty good move to me...
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: Huh...I think what I choose to do with Piedmont doesn't matter.

But that's because I know what I'm choosing.

*You* think it matters, because it affects your guess a lot (the value of choice A hinges on it--and what you're doing with Tuscany/Adriatic) that it's large in your mind.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: So Piedmont only affects my choice, in that I think the *threat* of it affects your choice.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: Why do you think "lunging for Venice implies Tyrolia -> Munich"?
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: Fascinating.

Your description of C is missing something that makes you think it is strictly worse than A:
I would not backfill Berlin with Prussia. I would move Prussia to LIV. That’s the version of C that I’ve been considering. It would allow me to retreat BER if I guess wrong, and put STP in play for me no matter what.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: ugh...I think I'm going to lose now. I hate my choices, but I can't convince myself to change them.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: hmm...it'd be an interesting strategy for you. Start hard south, and then keep shifting the focus north. Hoping that I overcommit south.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: Ok, so with the revised C' option, it's not terrible. The best counter is the *very* amusing Baltic -> Livonia and Munich -> Berlin with Kiel support. I highly doubt I play that.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: If you lunge for Venice, it means you think I’m not covering Venice with any units. If you think I’m covering Venice with a unit, you’re better off letting me just get away with that, and you should move PIE to TYR come what may. You could attempt a “hostile support” to force one of my units to cover VEN, but that’s of neighbor value compared to thwarting an attack on MUN or getting into TYR, and has no effect if I don’t cover VEN.

If you make you decision to move PIE to TYR, then that changes the value of some of those outcomes because you will be able to attack backwards with TYR into MUN, or thwart some variations.

If you armies are in BUR, RUH, KIE and TYR, and your fleet is in BAL, you can overpower me at MUN even if I have both MUN and BER. I think in your analysis, you are treating a unit in TYR as a nuisance unit, and I don’t agree.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: I've been strongly considering grabbing Sweden and making a play for St. P next year. It feels wrong. l think losing St. P short term is OK. Losing both German centers is crushing.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: And convoying Piedmont to NAf? I think it all but guarantees the Med for me...but at what cost?
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: I've been very strongly considering that convoy. Next year it guarantees Tunis for me, and nearly a stalemate line there.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: I only made a slight change to my tactics after thinking about the board hard. I’ll tell you what it was after.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: The move to SWE is tempting but I think you should rule that out. That’s close to just admitting defeat. The possibility of getting 2 builds is cool but I think that’s superficial. France just needs a new build each year; the number of units matters less than the positions. Sweden is a step backwards from Baltic.

I didn’t even consider that you would convoy to NAF and it seems like the wrong choice to me. I think that’s over-committing to the south. You can set up to take TUN just by making a supported attack on TYS right now. You can try to guess against me until you can bring in a new fleet build from BRE, which wouldn’t be so hard. I think that you are putting the value of getting an army into TYR as lower than I would, and the value of getting TUN for sure soon as higher than I would.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: I'm changing them constantly...
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: But I don’t know everything. There could be something to the convoy idea, or ensuring a capture with SWE.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: Yeah...after reconsidering, owning TYS is worth a lot, and taking the army out of commission when I need it heavily elsewhere is too much for too little extra.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: If I had supporting Paris -> Burg last turn, and could guarantee a hold in Munich, the convoy idea would be nice. Since then I'd just have to hold Munich, and race for St. P. But here, I need to not lose Germany more than I need to lock up Tunis.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: I think that’s the right analysis.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: Ugh. I almost sent Baltic to Prussia for the disband
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: So I entered my moves and I didn’t want to change them much based on our conversation, but I eventually realized that the Opportunity unity cost of covering VEN with ADR was minimal.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: Yes.
23 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1903: You’d basically lost tunis either way
24 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1904: I think you still have 2 lives? Is that about right?
25 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1904: Hm. I think that’s fair to say. I can win with STP and holding onto either MUN or BER long enough to close the match. because I only need either one, I’m still in the game.

I think I’m confronted with a challenging question of how to allocate units to pick up the back centers.
25 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1904: There’s something to be said for raiders this game. Tyrolia and Tunis both could cause havoc.
25 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1904: Tyr too for that matter
25 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1904: I’ve been thinking that too. I rarely play in such a way as to allow an opponent to have a raider, but last turn I thought it was worth the risk/cost. I am kind of unfamiliar with how to make guessing decisions in this situation, as a consequence of how rarely I let that happen.
25 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1904: I usually abbreviate Tyrrhenian Sea as TYS to keep distinct from Tyrolia
25 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1904: Oh yes...It's *very* unclear to me the risk/reward of sending Tyr or TYS off into your lands. Or to let Tunis in. I think Austria has the advantage because you have more units, so can send a raider and still hold the line. But if I can take Greece, or slow you down with a raider, you run out of time.
25 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1904: If you have a raider in NAf, then it's like having 1 extra center, right?
25 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1904: I'm just trying to decide whether to take Ion in spring, or let *you* decide on where Tunis should go.

Germany is also interesting. If you decide to bounce Ruhr, then I can disband Munich. If you don't bounce Ruhr, I can hold Berlin and get in position on Munich.

I don't think convoying Berlin to Livonia is correct, but it's got something going for it. Pressure Moscow, Warsaw, St. P. at cost of a center I probably can't hold for the moment anyways.

On the other hand, you're not going to be able to sprint to the finish any time soon.
25 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1904: Gah. Switching orders yet again
25 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1904: Darn it. I was so sure you were going to double-support-hold BER.
25 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1904: That might be game.
25 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1904: I almost convoyed Berlin. Changed my orders this morning
25 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1904: Also almost took Rome and Tunis. But changed this morning.
25 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1904: Close to game. You may be able to shift focus back to hinges.
25 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1904: I could recover from missing those other guesses, but I needed to have either Munich or Berlin to be able to win, or even draw. I think my chances are <10% at this point. I'll try to think of something.
25 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1904: The problem is that losing two centers means I have to capture 3 centers in order to get a build, which is definitely necessary. This *really* limits my tactical choices.
25 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1904: Yeah. That’s hard.

I actually changed my orders after realizing that I didn’t care what you did if I was doing this.
25 Nov 19 UTC Autumn, 1904: Hmm. Yeah, I’m looking forward to if you can come up with anything. I don’t see how you can prevent me putting Germany and Tunis behind a wall (maybe Tunis?) but not while also sprinting and keeping St P
25 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1905: I ain't got much if you don't make a mistake. I needed to make the correct guess for Munich/Berlin on the key turn.
26 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1905: I may yet...I like your play to swing into Scandinavia.
26 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1905: I'm torn on what to do in Med:

obviously I'm bringing my Brest fleet there (maybe stop in Portugal on the way)

But do I push or not? With only 3 fleets you can't really push me out. I'll be in Tunis, WMS, and GoL by year end, and Spain too if I want (or Por instead). This is 1 fleet short of locked (need another in Naf or Mar).

But I could also send a fleet to Ionian to counter-punch your likely creep up Italy's coast. If you defend it, no problem. But if you let me swap Tyr for Ion, then I bypass Portugal and still end in WMS, Tunis, and (probably) GoL this year and have a raider in Ionian. It's clearly not playing for the straight win, but maybe it's just as good? Not sure.
26 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1905: Oh...yeah...I can guarantee the win just by holding. Don't lose eye on prize.
26 Nov 19 UTC Spring, 1905: I'm sooooo tempted to poke at Ionian. What is that? Why is it so hard to just hold?
26 Nov 19 UTC OK, I'm sending TYS -> Rom and GoL -> TYS with support.

Scandinavia will hold forever.

Germany hold forever.

My next builds are fleets (Marseille if you bounce me, Brest only 1 per year if you don't).

I'll grab Portugal this year too.

Then send the new Brest fleet to NAf and Portugal to Spain (sc). Eventually retreat TYS to WMS when I have to.

The 2nd build in Brest grabs Lvp and Edi and 2 new fleets go to Barents and GoB eventually. First safely disband Finland by Barents -> St. P, and Sweden -> Fin with support. Then the 4 fleets take St. P.
26 Nov 19 UTC Yeah I think you got this.
26 Nov 19 UTC Among my many problems, I don’t have a way to gather up units.

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

BunnyGo (207 D)
Won. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
12 supply-centers, 12 units
swordsman3003 (13181 D (G))
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
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