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Finished: 10 AM Tue 12 Jun 18 UTC
Private Practice Game-59
1 day, 12 hours /phase
Pot: 10 D - Autumn, 1907, Finished
1 excused missed turn
Game won by swordsman3003 (13174 D (G))
31 May 18 UTC Autumn, 1903: Got some errands to run so the update spree is going to slow down for a bit. Feels pretty even so far, but I am getting very nervous with some of the positions getting ready to break.
31 May 18 UTC Spring, 1904: Haha, understood. There's no rush.

Germany has maybe a 6:4 advantage on Italy in this matchup, so if I were to win as Italy it would be by reversing the momentum Germany has early on. You've made some good guesses so far.
31 May 18 UTC Spring, 1904: To win as Germany, you'll need to the line from Brest-Paris-Munich-War-Moscow and everything north of that to reach 16.

South of that, viable border centers are Portugal, Spain, Marseilles, Vienna and Sevastopol. They can be straightforwardly incorporated into stalemate positions from the north. If you get hang onto 1 and keep the main 16, that'll force a draw. If you can hang onto 2, the'll be a win for you.

Portugal and Spain are a challenge because Germany has a hard time getting enough fleets into position on time to hold onto MAO and also those centers. Marseilles requires, usually, armies in Gascony and Burgundy to hold, which are otherwise non-essential provinces so Marseilles requires a big commitment as well in order to hold down. Over-comitting to the west can result in Italy breaking through in the east and sometimes getting into Warsaw or Moscow.

Vienna is a clear choice because cramming a ton of armies into the middle is easy to do, even very late in the game. However, if Vienna is ever lost its really hard to get back.

Sevastopol can be held from the North, but the positions need to be correct in the end game to prevent Italy from grinding it down. In order to keep Sevastopol from the north, Germany needs to control Ukraine and Moscow (to defend vs Rumania-BlackSea-Armenia attack) AND ALSO Galicia (to prevent Ukraine from being poked by BUD or VIE, thus allowing a supported attack into Sevastopol to work). That's a lot of positions very far east that have to be securely held by armies, so you run into the same over-commitment problem if you start trying to shore it up too early.
31 May 18 UTC Spring, 1904: The reason Germany is advantaged in this matchup is that Germany has a really, really strong ability to cram armies in and around Tyrolia, thus greatly reducing Italy's ability to get armies into the correct positions, or even to build them at all. Convoying is the workaround but it is not ideal as the armies start pretty far away from the needed locations when they're convoyed to ALB or GRE.

If Italy can prevent Germany from winning, either by reaching the 18 centers or by just shutting down Italy altogether in the home centers with a bottlenecking strategy, then a long game can favor Italy because Germany is likely to have not built sufficient fleets to hold a proper line in the west, and building a bunch of fleets at the end isn't helpful because of how many moves it takes for them to get into the right spots (whereas Italy will have fleets ready to go all along from having done convoys and trying to get out of the bottleneck). If Germany hasn't won, Italy can potentially offset the losses of other centers like Vienna by breaking out into the west and going nuts.
01 Jun 18 UTC Spring, 1904: I think that fleet move may cost me the game, well played. But its a long way from over.
09 Jun 18 UTC Sorry I am taking so long on my moves I am learning a whole lot from this. I think I have already lost, but I find I am learning a lot more by looking at my moves a couple times over the course of the day before finalizing them.
09 Jun 18 UTC That’s okay. The gamestate gets very complicated in the end-game and I agree there are a lot of different “movesets” that could work.

Sometimes I’ll think “assuming he makes this move, if I assume that, then I should do this, which means these other pieces have to hold” etc.

I think there are only a tiny number of moves you could make to avoid losing this turn or maybe nothing. But that’s okay take your time and learn.
10 Jun 18 UTC And that is game.

My analysis, is that I got over-aggressive in the west trying to get into spain rather than establishing a defensive line around brest and the mid atlantic ocean.

After that I got over aggressive in the east attempting to make up for and you expertly predicted my risky moves and picked them to pieces.
10 Jun 18 UTC That’s about right. Germany might need Portugal or Spain or Marseilles to win, but the more important thing is to bottleneck Italy as MAO. Usually Italy will eventually have enough fleets to overpower Germany there and as Germany you’re hoping to win before that can happen because there’s no efficient way to get a lot of fleets in position there.

Trying to make up for that by taking over the east was a really gooos strategy. I was still pretty nervous for a while because I was getting into a real danger of getting completely confined to the Balkans and getting all these armies locked in. Italy has this disadvantage of being easily locked down and unable to get armies into position. I managed to make good guesses though. You got into a problem where you didn’t get enoug builds compared to me and it out you behind.

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

Italy
swordsman3003 (13174 D (G))
Won. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
19 supply-centers, 15 units
Germany
Verseven (123 D)
Survived. Bet: 5 D
13 supply-centers, 12 units
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