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Finished: 02 PM Fri 20 Jul 18 UTC
Private 2018 World Cup Group C PP
1 day, 12 hours /phase
Pot: 35 D - Autumn, 1915, Finished
Classic, Public messaging only, Anonymous players, Unranked, Wait for orders
1 excused missed turn
Game drawn
16 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1914: I don't see how Italy winning benefits anyone other than Italy - he'll advance at the expense of someone else in Group C and everyone still alive will get fewer points. No one will benefit beyond Italy. In a draw, all players still alive in this game get more points and improve the positions of their teams - whether that is enough to advance depends on each team.
16 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1914: I think it's pretty evident how it works out. Assuming Russia is telling the truth about people's identities (which the mods basically confirmed France's, I know he's right on mine, and his Germanic claim seems pretty good), Canada is through for sure with an Italian solo, and will effectively have guaranteed one lesser team in the final with them, improving their odds of winning there. Oceania and West Coast aren't advancing without a solo, so to them, it should be solo or bust. They don't even improve their position within the group with a draw. Not sure how things broke in the other games, but team south had a chance to be the last team in, they might need a draw now. Portuguese speakers also need a draw, so if they're in play, it DOES make sense to draw as well.
16 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1914: I don't buy the whole "lesser team" argument. Score the best you can, I say. Maybe even the preliminary rounds could factor in for tiebreakers or other advantages, so Canada just hurts its overall score by giving up a draw-share. And the drawing teams do improve their overall position with draw, even if not within the group, so that's worth doing. While Germany and France would be better off with a solo, that's simply not possible with Italy able to solo easily if anyone breaks ranks against him, so it's a worthless effort to try that will only hurt the position of France and Germany in the overall standings. Only question is who Austria is - Russia indicated they were from Canada, if you trust that source.
16 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1914: Canada has clinched a spot? Why not give themselves one less tough opponent to fade? Can't believe Halt doesn't realize this.
16 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Pretty weak and artificial reason to get a worse score and blemish your own reputation in the tourney.
"Why did you lose your group play game? Oh, I could have forced a draw, but...(interrupted) - yeah, you lost, no excuses." Don't want to be that guy as Austria.

More impressive: "Despite being down to 1 SC, I managed to force a draw and get a full draw share, making another player (Russia) look silly in the process since he said it would be impossible for me to get a draw in the game."
16 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: My draw order is in - Russia's theory I am trying to solo is plainly false.
16 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: No one cares about the group games you dumb fuck! No one cares if Canada finished with 400 versus 500 points. No one cares whether Austria won or lost.

It'll all be forgotten in less than a year. However, your team cares! Austria, at least talk to your team, tell them that a player (me) has guessed your username correctly and is probably right about the other ones. Ask the, whether they want to let team California in or team Upper Mississippi.

Also, France, please tell me the odds that you draw with Austria? There's a reason Germany and Italy haven't put up their draw votes.

The fact your still sensitive about my accusation of your solo kinda proves my point in that you don't want anyone else to think you want to solo.

Dumb con artist trying to scam everyone into thinking a draw with Austria is smart.
16 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Austria, your team would rather have a super weak team with them than a strong team. Why the fuck won't you ask them?

Your screwing your team!
16 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Don't listen to the player with the potty-mouth.
16 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Don't listen to the player who wants a draw with a 1 SC country.
16 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: If you cannot convince others without resorting to profanity (a form of aggressive, hostile verbal threat to force or coerce an action), perhaps your argument is not so convincing on its own. This has applications in real-life as well - beware the argument backed by profanity as that shows an effort to use coercion to backstop for weakness in the argument or the negotiator.
16 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Fortunately, most on this site are not cowed by such hollow hostile verbiage, although the occasional less experienced player seems swayed by it.
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: "Maybe even the preliminary rounds could factor in for tiebreakers or other advantages, so Canada just hurts its overall score by giving up a draw-share."

As far as I know, this ISN'T how the scoring works, so it doesn't actually make sense to care where you end up. And yeah, if Austria throws it here, people COULD go back and see that he lost a game for the good of his team. This game doesn't even count towards GR, if I'm not mistaken, so it really doesn't hurt him or his reputation in any way to do so. The Meta IS part of this tournament, whether we want it to be or not.

And, while drawing might help them move up a couple spots in the total rankings, it's still not actually a worthwhile move imo. I think you're playing to advance or you're not playing particularly tactically.

I also understand that it makes a TON of sense for you to draw, so I don't blame you one bit for trying to force one. I DO think my arguments makes sense, though, at least in a certain light. I CAN understand the rationale behind playing to not suck, but it's not a fun way to play haha.
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: No - he would have lost a game for the good of your team Italy, not for the good of his team. So I have to disagree with your assessment. And while the games do not count towards GR, it does look bad to lose when you could have drawn, unless losing actually somehow helps your team (as opposed to someone else's team). Frankly, I'm struggling to see why it would ever be better to lose than draw - but keep straining for those arguments as to why Austria should blemish himself for just Italy's team to benefit.
And I'm pretty sure playing not to suck is probably the most fun way to play compared to the alternative - playing to suck is no fun at all ;)
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Anyway, my draw vote is in, and my defensive moves are set. Italy isn't breaking through here - up to Germany and Austria if they would rather lose than draw.
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: In a tournament where you're trying to advance, playing to draw when you need a solo is not a statistically viable play. At this point, you're probably right, he doesn't have much of an option, but guaranteeing you don't advance isn't a winning strategy.

As I've said, it doesn't really matter whether Austria draws or throws either for him personally. But, knowing that you're through either way into the finals (assuming that he's Canada), I think you WOULD try to cull the competition a bit, giving yourself a cleaner look at the overall championship.

I guess my way of looking at it is this: in this particular tournament, your first job is guaranteeing you advance. If you're not advancing, your position is somewhat immaterial. Obviously, you'd prefer to be higher, but that's not what you're playing for. Then, if you know you've qualified, you're trying to give yourself the best chance to win in the finals, and one way to do that is lessening the competition you play in that round.

Let's be honest, you're a great player, presumably on a highly ranked team. I'm halfway decent, but no one is confusing me for a juggernaut, and that goes for the rest of my team as well haha. I'd think team Canada would have to look at our team and think, "man, if we let them through, that basically gives us a 1 in 6 chance of winning vs a 1 in 7 chance against team California." Trust me, I don't like making this argument, it feels slimy, but it DOES make sense in a twisted sort of way.
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: France, the only reason you want a draw is because you know my "guesses" of the identities of very one here is correct and therefore you just need a draw to get in.

Weren't you just bullshitting Germany and saying you wanted what was best for his team and that you wanted a draw not because it would get you in but because it would get him a few points? If that's the case than shouldn't Germany find a safe way to get a 3 way draw

I think your only interested in yourself and bullshitting everyone that you actually care.
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: If I was in Germany's position and my choices were:
1) Draw, which happens to be better for France
2) Lose, which happens to be better for Italy
I would choose to draw. Why?
1) Drawing is better than losing
2) Germany was allied with France earlier and France treated him well. Germany betrayed France, not the other way around. Germany might want to give a bit of respect to the country that helped him for much of the game, who was loyal to him, who never betrayed him, and who got him into decent position to make the solo try, even if it didn't pan out. I don't think Germany has bad feelings for France just because France fought back and tried to resist Germany's solo effort.
3) We're all annoyed at Russia, and would like to see Russia get a result he doesn't want. Heck, this might be the #1 reason. Even Italy in a draw might get a bit of satisfaction from this. And since Germany is out with a draw or loss according to Russia, he may as well pick an option that makes Russia unhappy.
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Agree with Reason #1 but #2 & #3 are not a logical and thought out reasons; Diplomacy should be played with a clear headed mind on what result benefits you (and you only), not about somebody that was nice to you early in the game. How do you think VillageIdiot got to where he is? By always using Reasons #2 & #3 in his games or being a clear thinker and stabbing people if it were right thing for him to do.

Of course, there's a reason why you didn't list out Austria's options. If you did it truthfully it wouldn't go your way and if you didn't do it truthfully you would get called out.
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: If I didn't want to draw with Austria, I wouldn't have voted draw. If Germany and Italy vote draw while I'm not here, we'll draw. So if I don't want a draw with Austria, I'm going about it in a pretty risk way. So, no Russia, you're wrong. Austria's options:
1) Draw and advance with a higher score
2) Lose and advance with a lower score
Reasons to prefer a draw:
1) Draw is better than losing
2) Italy is responsible for Austria being nearly killed, so no love for Italy there, not wanting to reward him.
3) Germany helped Austria survive, so interest in reciprocating by helping him to a draw
4) To annoy Russia (same as reason #3 for Germany above)

And I disagree with you: reciprocating good with good and bad with bad are good reasons to take an action for the simple reason that it signals to others in future games that there are benefits to being a good ally/helping and penalties for not. This is quite logical in repeat gameplay. Failure to respond this way encourages more ruthless stabbing play from others knowing there will be no consequences - you know, the way you play Russia and look where that got you.
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: So don't be like Russia, just vote draw ;)
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Austria just hold. France the draw stalemate line has been set on my side. It's up to you
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Are you kidding me? You didn't even label the reasons why he wouldn't draw!

And again, reasons 2, 3, & 4 are not thought out and legitamate reasons to do so. Here are Austria's reasons to not draw:

1. By allowing a super weak team into the Finals with them they increase their odds of winning from 1/7 to 1/6.5. Team California is a very strong team with a decent chance of winning it all while team Upper Mississippi are the definite underdogs.

2. I know this isn't a legitamate reason but Germany has tried to eliminate Austria multiple times and only Italy has saved him. Check his moves, they were clearly intended to cut a support move to Warsaw.

And as you said, Austria's options:

1. Draw and advance with a strong team California.
2. Lose and advance with the weak team Upper Mississippi (hence increasing their odds of winning the Finals).
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: France only wants a draw because he knows I'm right about the identity of the countries and that he just needs any draw to get in. He doesn't care about you Germany.
17 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Well Italy? How many turns of slamming into a useless wall do you want to go? How about a draw now?
18 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: I'll wait a phase. Make sure everyone does their part and then draw. I think that's perfectly reasonable.
18 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Very reasonable.
18 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Italy, why don't you wait until 1920 when it'll be force drawn? Give them some time to think about it.
18 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Based on that, I've readied up.
18 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Russia, because we have lives more interesting than five wasted years of nothing gameplay, lol.
18 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Nothing gameplay? Germany will have 4 units on Austria in half a year.

You think that was unintentional?
18 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: For what? Make a highly risky move like that for what value?
18 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Besides, the opportunity to mock Russia's claim that it would be "impossible" for Austria to get in the draw is practically priceless. That could very well be the best thing to come out of this game. I think even Italy can enjoy that aspect.
18 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: Well as you said, the more points he gets in this game the stronger his team's performance looks no matter if he misses the Finals either way.
18 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: I don't think Germany gives a shit about me. Your the one that's been bitching about me (still salty about your lack of anonymity?).

What, is Germany going to tell his grand kids that in a meaningless game he proved a complete stranger wrong (if you take the literal meaning of what he said like the anal retentive slypups). This game will be forgotten; no one cares if a player said that drawing with someone was a bad idea and than they drawed with said player.

Anybody can see that Austria can be cut out of this draw.
18 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1915: I don't know why you cling onto things France (clingy maybe). Germany doesn't care if I said drawing with Austria is a dumb idea.

It should have been pretty clear what I meant was that drawing with Austria would be pretty stupid when he can be eliminated and cut out of the draw. But maybe your all impossibly stupid and fail to see that.
18 Jul 18 UTC Well, Italy, if your going to draw. At least wait until the end of the phase...

Just trust me on this, one of the country's strategy might change. It's a long shot but 1.5 days isn't that much of a cost since the Finals will start in August no matter what you do.
18 Jul 18 UTC Ok. Nothing going for you Italy, as predicted. How about a draw now instead of doing this for five more years as Russia wants. We're the only game still going in group play, so why hold everyone up for two weeks for nothing?
18 Jul 18 UTC Wouldja look at that, got them all right. Good game.
18 Jul 18 UTC Even the ones I didn't mention...
18 Jul 18 UTC Good game all.
@Russia - you asked earlier what you did wrong diplomatically. I would say the sowing of distrust in public press is not a great tactic, as it indicates that you, yourself should be distrusted. I also found your use of profanity to be a negative - it puts others off when you need to strengthen relationships. Generally, too much negative press from you and not enough positive. While negative press can be quite effective in a full press game, it has major drawbacks in public press and must be used sparsely in tactical situations. A game effort to try to find a way to knock my team out, although I don't see how you advance yourself without a draw - you probably would have been better off keeping your knowledge of who-was-who secret and tried to maneuver into draw position the way Austria did. Alternately, you should have pushed more strongly for the two way draw between Germany and Italy, although I would have prevented that from happening - either Germany or Italy would have won unless one was ridiculously altruistic to the other to give up a solo shot.
@Austria - nicely done making the best of your position. You were in a tough spot with Italy there once Germany stabbed me and I removed any threat of pressure on Italy.
@Germany - a game effort to solo, but I think you stabbed me prematurely - probably better to let me get a little more committed towards Italy, then convince him to join you in a joint counter-attack.
@Italy - also a well done try to solo - you came really close there! I was impressed with your gameplay - I wouldn't be surprised to learn you are the strongest player on your team.
@Turkey - didn't have much interaction with you, so nothing to say there.
@England - sorry you had to learn the lesson of the dangers of speaking up very late early in the first round of a game. If a player makes a good deal with a neighbor and then breaks it right away, how does that look? Not good. So tough to unravel a deal formed in your absence when you were given an opportunity to speak up and didn't.
18 Jul 18 UTC I'll try to post my thoughts a little later, but good game all.
18 Jul 18 UTC Thanks Italy - and I'd enjoy hearing from the rest of you. Post game perspective is valuable, even from the venom spitting Russian effort.
19 Jul 18 UTC Hey all I'll be posting thoughts later as well. I've been busy with work and filling out my forms for the navy
19 Jul 18 UTC So my predictions went askew the moment Germany stabbed France. Like France said, I feel it was a premature move, which turned out to be right given how Italy and France were able to put a halt (heh) to that. I was far less involved in the later half of the game, and managing to get into the draw was more due to luck and solid tactical play (end game states usually enter a Nash Equilibrium, hence even without communicating with Germany at times the best move was clear), than any great diplomatic effort on my end. What diplomacy I did do, I think, was building up some kind of rapport with Germany in the early-mid game.

There was a brief window of time where I could have been eliminated without much fuss, (right before Germany stabbed Italy), but after Italy started pushing Germany back, that window disappeared. It's here that the Public Press nature of the game went in my favor as neither Italy nor Germany could coordinate eliminating me without me knowing, hence putting to jeopardy any such plan by the mere threat of throwing to the other side.

@Germany it was a good game, and while I'm thankful you spared me, I think you had a real shot at soloing if you had eliminated me, pushed into Italy more and /then/ stabbed France.
@France solid play from you all around and being able to switch sides so quickly to go from anti-Italy to anti-Germany to anti-Italy is a credit to you as a player. Few are able to maintain enough rapport to make such strategic choices (even forced) and fewer able to maintain objectivity throughout the game.
@Italy - I still maintain your stab on me was weak, even after the game has ended. You left Turkey alive when you did it, and France was already clearly gearing towards hitting you. You took far too long fighting me when you should have been taking over southern France. Later on in the game, my heartlands would have been far more exposed as I pushed into Russia/Germany. Good effort though.
@Turkey, It's a shame we weren't really able to work together, but public press really makes any such alliance unfeasible since any A/T alliance has to be done in secret (during the early game). Your decision to help Italy against me was surprising - because honestly, he would have gotten rid of you eventually (which he did do), whereas I had no incentive to do so in the medium term until Russia was gone, nor could I ever really mount a serious attempt to do so with a promise to Italy not to build fleets. You could virtually ensure to wreak havoc on me by the mere threat of Fleet to Black Sea, eventually making some form of coordination between us possible. I've always maintained that my position was anti-Russia, and that you were merely collateral damage in that effort.
@England, we didn't get to interact much and you were pretty much screwed the moment you chose to speak up late in PP.
@Russia, in general, I found your play style aggravating, distasteful, inefficient, undiplomatic, and suboptimal. I don't think I ever saw a tactical plan from you that made sense from the perspective of your own allies. But I really should thank you - I have no doubt one reason I made it into this draw was the other players just wanting to piss you off. By gunning after me in press long after you'd been eliminated, combined with (what I perceive at least) a negative reputation across the board, your insistence that I /could not/ make it into a draw guaranteed that I did.
19 Jul 18 UTC @Austria, your dumb ass let the defending World Cup champs in over the newbie weak team Upper Mississippi. Team Canada deserves to lose after that blunder by you.
19 Jul 18 UTC @Austria - great analysis - really appreciate it.
@Russia - bitter and nasty even in the post game, sigh. FYI - this is my first world cup, and the teams change a bit each year, so I'm hardly a "World Cup champ." And having a weaker team advance is not necessarily good - it could be good for some teams, but not necessarily your own. If you are confident in the abilities of your team, you want good players in the final that won't make foolish mistakes to others, so that your hopefully superior tactics/diplomacy can prevail.
19 Jul 18 UTC @Russia, now that the game is over, you willing to share how you cracked the anonymity? I admit you did so successfully now, but I was just unwilling to make the admission in the game. I have my theories to how it could be done, but I won't implement those theories myself because I think its a distasteful manipulation of information.
19 Jul 18 UTC Well France, all I can say is that I've told the mods and goldfinger exactly how I did it and they all seem to agree there were not rule violations...

Maybe if I receive enough requests I'll make a forum topic.
19 Jul 18 UTC @Austria, thanks for the analysis. As i said numerous times, I probably would not have stabbed in any other circumstance, but with desperately needing a solo to advance, I feel like it was the only option at that point. I think it was also VITAL that I keep Turkey alive to do so, otherwise I'd just be bashing my head against a wall as I moved to attack you. Turkey was crippled enough (and I was still far enough into his territory), that I felt I could crack that nut later on. I also DID get the sense that Germany of France was going to turn, so I took the only chance I had at a solo. Also, I do completely disagree with your French assessment, just as I disagreed when Russia was making the same comments. It's so easy to defend the Iberian peninsula and France had the units to do it. The only way I was going to break through there was if France threw it to me because Germany was doing something stupid. I really did appreciate your play, though, and it WAS skill to make yourself vital to the draw, despite your humility haha. Most players can't pull that off.

@Turkey, sorry things shook down the way they did. I always hate the lepanto opening, but lying the first turn in a public press game just felt like a poor precedent to set for the remainder of the game. I thoroughly enjoyed your press throughout, and it was clear that you were an exceptional player.

@France, well-played throughout. The second that you agreed to work with Germany early, I knew you were going to be a problem, because a powerful France is almost impossible to dislodge in the late game. Your press throughout was measured and very thoughtful, and I agree with Austria that your ability to focus on the necessity rather than on previous grudges was rather impressive.

@Germany, you had a very well-played game (and getting France on your side early was probably your biggest coup) but I DO feel like you could have used your press a bit more effectively. Early on, you seemed to just be making outlandish claims that turned most of your neighbors against you early. Clearly, you were able to make it work, though, so good on you. Excellent job getting to the line at the end there. Losing Galicia in 1914 (?) ended up being a crucial blow for me, which I didn't anticipate. Really wish I would have held onto it, definitely would have aided a solo push in the east.

@Russia, I'm generally inclined to agree with the rest of the board that your press was incredibly incendiary throughout. It just was a bit aggressive for my taste, and you never ACTUALLY seemed interested in working with anyone around you. For instance, I know we went back and forth forever on how I needed to let you know that I was going to stab, when that's just not a viable option for me. It completely defeats the purpose of a stab and only would benefit you. It was that sort of press which seemed to alienate a good chunk of the board. Just my two cents, you're certainly a better player than I am, so take that for what it's worth.

@England, you did a nice job holding off the offensive as long as you did. Sorry, we didn't have much press, so I don't have a ton to say to you haha.

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

Italy
Zachattack413 (1198 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
16 supply-centers, 16 units
Germany
irelandball (134 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
9 supply-centers, 8 units
France
slypups (1889 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
8 supply-centers, 8 units
Austria
Halt (295 D)
Drawn. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
1 supply-centers, 1 units
England
Eunoia (192 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
Turkey
! (1709 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
Russia
ChippeRock (2564 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
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