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Finished: 08 PM Sun 09 Aug 15 UTC
My Cat's name is Shadow!!!
5 minutes /phase
Pot: 35 D - Autumn, 1911, Finished
Classic, No messaging, Anonymous players, Draw-Size Scoring
1 excused missed turn
Game won by CSteinhardt (9040 D (B))
09 Aug 15 UTC I got lucky to be in such a good position as Russia, but I couldn't pull it off in the end. I thought I had the element of surprise on my side, but I had the element of failure. My tears fill the streams and oceans tonight. GG damnit.
09 Aug 15 UTC GG.

Sorry Italy. Mispredicted what you would do in Spring 1909, and that ruined our chances at a statlemate. Not sure we had a chance to begin with (to have one, Russia would have needed to take Tyrolia), but that ruined us completely.

No blame at all towards Russia, by the way. He saw our line was ruined, and went for the miniscule hope of racing French for the sol,, rather than meekly waiting for the end.
09 Aug 15 UTC the perfect example of when to and when not to play the stalemate line
09 Aug 15 UTC All in all, a fun game though. Even though I was constantly getting hammered.
09 Aug 15 UTC What a shitshow. Holy shit did I mess that up.

Well played France. Just wish you'd hit ready a little quicker...

Congrats on your new feline friend, Yanik, but what was up with the end there?

Massive props to Turkey for surviving as long as you did.

Does anyone know what on Earth Germany was doing? We all suffered for no reason thanks to that.
09 Aug 15 UTC gg -- that was really well played for a random weekend gunboat, and a lot of fun!

For what it's worth, I think you guys probably did have a line -- it was going to be a mess, and needed a lot of coordination, but I believe you could have held a line that included Berlin but not Tunis, although it would have depended on whether I won a race to Prussia and on several things in the South. Italy (and then eventually Turkey) did a really good job of slowing me down just enough to make that possible, and that's why I chose not to take Rome in the end position.
09 Aug 15 UTC Germany and England are the newbies, and France took advantage of that. gg
09 Aug 15 UTC The way I saw it, Germany decided he was going to lose to France, so he ran towards the statlemate line, but he didn't do it well at all.
09 Aug 15 UTC @Italy - sorry if the ready was a problem. It was a very, very complex endgame position and I needed every bit of time I could wring out of the deadlines to figure it out. It ended up looking uncomplicated, but that was only after the line was broken, and before that I was trying to look about 8 turns deep in some places. In particular, I had a couple of build decisions where I needed a fleet immediately but an army long-term and had to figure out whether the fleet was too greedy, and I'm still not sure whether I got it right. You don't often see a 9th fleet being correct for any position with 5 armies on the board, let alone a France fighting for central Europe.
09 Aug 15 UTC Thanks for that, France, and impressive to get as many as you did in the end. If I hadn't ruined everything in 1909, we stood a chance despite everything.

Turkey, you're right, and the mistake was entirely mine. I shouldn't start games so late...I didn't see that by being smarter when backing up, I could have held a line if Russia got into Tyrolia.
09 Aug 15 UTC Russia taking Trieste from Italy at the end surprised me. Germany doing a lot of not much in the early game surprised me. It was interesting. Turkey losing Bulgaria. Austria building a fleet and making a slight enemy of Italy and losing a really strong position.

Crazy game. Once Germany was not moving much of anywhere and locked down his fleet in Bel/Pic it was France's game to lose.

Fun game to observe. I have to play a 50/50 opening to try to win as England. I could have played safe to...maybe draw it out I suppose.
09 Aug 15 UTC Fair enough, it was a lot less straightforward than expected. A deserved victory in the end.
09 Aug 15 UTC As a good example, the position in S07 gives me exactly one shot to break my line in the north and allow Russia to considerably complicate it, at the possible cost of breaking the line in the south, but if I don't take that one chance, then I'll cost myself about six turns to get into position which probably means it's too late to win a race, except that if Russia does break the line, I can't send the fleet south anyway, except that Russia probably won't (and yet did)...perhaps it was obvious to some of you guys that F Bre and the northern push was correct, but it wasn't obvious to me and I changed both that build and then my orders several times in the last few seconds before the deadline.
09 Aug 15 UTC No problem at all. Just because we didn't have units doesn't mean you can't spend the time planning.

Russia, quick question. Before the end, I was trying to move into Bulgaria, in an attempt to say I wanted to build another fleet. Did that get across?
09 Aug 15 UTC England - I actually really wanted to work with you, just that the combination of the German and Russian northern builds meant that I had a narrow window and had to go for it. Normally with that opening I'll just snap up Belgium and run an E/F, especially with Italy being annoying in the south. So I don't think you got it wrong, just that you got unlucky that the combination of Italy backing off, Germany making the wrong builds, and Russia having northern armies instead of fleets made it a natural stab.
09 Aug 15 UTC Honestly, I tried figuring out what I would do in your shoes, and I couldn't. You were in a tough spot.

Funnily enough, Italy, I actually had ordered Ion-Try until the last seconds before the deadline. If I had not changed it, this would have been much different.
09 Aug 15 UTC Oh, yeah, the stab was correct. Germany really screwed this game up. Russia built against me and then Austria lost the momentum they had with that Fleet build.
09 Aug 15 UTC Also, not having played on here doesn't make me a newbie at the game. I don't see how you can classify me as such.
09 Aug 15 UTC That's quite frustrating, Turkey. My delaying tactics had been quite successful up to that point, so I hoped a Russian push in the center would all but force the draw as France tried to outguess us. At another time, perhaps I would have noticed the potential for a line...
09 Aug 15 UTC So, now that I look at it, here's an example of where it's going to get really complicated with perfect defense. Let's suppose that you did end up holding the line at TYS. You can basically keep me to just Tunis if you hold a line in the right place, although that takes perhaps more coordination than is easy in gunboat (you and Turkey seemed to be strong tactically, though, so I was assuming you'd probably find it). Berlin can be held if Russia gets into position as well, and when I have two too few armies on the board, I might even lose Munich at some point, right?

So, how can I get 18? There are basically two options:

1) Italy. You don't *quite* have a line, because I can get an army into Tuscany and it's an Italian army in Tyrolia instead of a Russian one, though that can back off. However, that actually requires two more army builds, because F Mar needs to be an army as well for Tuscany not to just immediately get popped. Which requires about five turns of movement, and might get there too late.

2) Berlin. Russia cannot 100% hold that from the north, because if I get into Prussia, he loses it. However, that's going to be potentially eight turns away, because I have to sweep up his fleets first in the north, as if he cuts BAL it doesn't help. If that's the plan, I need one northern army but I also need F NTH immediately, because Russia can delay long enough that I lose Munich.

Or, there's always option 3) determine that I can't get 18, in which case I need to back off enough that it's a 3-way draw instead of 4-way. Which I'm never disposed to do because I feel like one should always play for wins, but if the win's not there, it's going to be hard to reduce the draw once I'm on 17, so I should try and do that earlier.

The problem of course is that both of these options involve a lot of long-term planning, because if you start to analyze them, both are somewhat up in the air and depend upon who gets their units into just the right position several turns from now, and we each have multiple threats that have to be dealt with in the short-term.

So, perhaps I over-analyzed them, but my sense was that if I picked the right option there was probably a good shot at a solo, while the wrong option was probably going to end up drawn.
09 Aug 15 UTC All I know is that I'm 100% Finnish heritage and I held that at the end!
09 Aug 15 UTC I find it amazing you can put that kind of thought into it in five minutes! I would kill to be able to do that.

In 1909, I was kind of hoping Italy would pull Western Med to Tys, and then do Tyr-Pie and Pie Tus, with Tys going back to Rome. Russia had enough armies to fill in Tyrolia, and that would have kept you off Tunis, I believe, since I was in Ion, and you lacked the ability to break through in Tys.

But again, this was an amazing game, and I had a blast playing it. Hope to play against you all again.
09 Aug 15 UTC I read the Italian move to PIE as a fake, thought you would bounce Germany in BEL and really put Germany in a tough spot. My other play was NTH to SKA. And grab SWE but that gives Germany 2 builds and he can easily stop that with supporting SWE. I thought Germany would bounce Channel S02 and I thought Moscow would move south. I gain a build somewhere to defend LVP.
09 Aug 15 UTC The move to Piedmont looked fake, but potentially ruins my game if I get it wrong. But yeah, I also figured you for a build; that's why I felt I had to stab. If I realized you'd hold off a turn, I'd have waited a turn and then my stab is far stronger.

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

France
CSteinhardt (9040 D (B))
Won. Bet: 5 D, won: 35 D
21 supply-centers, 16 units
Russia
JamesYanik (548 D)
Survived. Bet: 5 D
7 supply-centers, 11 units
Turkey
Fortress Door (1718 D)
Survived. Bet: 5 D
4 supply-centers, 3 units
Italy
diplomat554 (2114 D)
Survived. Bet: 5 D
2 supply-centers, 3 units
England
Magnus0902 (112 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
Germany
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
Austria
Fallout (403 D)
Defeated. Bet: 5 D
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